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Old 06-27-2020, 08:23 PM   #841
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This is the problem. Too many people choose not to have health insurance or can not afford it. Hospitals will not turn people away without insurance. So the rest of us responsible citizens are subsidising the generosity of hospitols by higher medical costs and higher health insurance premiums.

If we had Medicare for all or some other plan, the overall cost of health care will drop since we wouldn't have to subsidise the uninsured. And poor people would get routine care and not show up at a hospital emergency room in advanced stages of illness where the cost of treatment is considerably more expensive.

Just to be clear, I am not a liberal or progressive promoting universal healthcare. Guess which US President first tried to get healthcare for US citizens in modern times?

Richard Nixon was working on a limited health program when he resigned. The effort died after his resignation in 1975 when President Ford said he would veto any health reform bill, using the recession as the reason. Nixons plan was not a comprehensive plan but a start.
I think it will eventually happen in some form in the US but it will take some time. As far as the cost goes , I donít think it will be as much of a savings as we would hope to expect, just a gut feeling but canít see how the government can out perform private industry, see the Elon Musk space launch / budgets.

An example for me is a coworker who has a state employee spouse and elects that insurance over our own company insurance. Now, we are a for profit company and have good to very good health insurance but he elects to decline because the state employee insurance is less out of pocket to them and exceeds our company coverage on all levels. Even with recent cut backs and increased employee cost sharing, a state (non-profit) outperforms a private for profit plan, go figure.
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Old 06-27-2020, 09:30 PM   #842
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I think it will eventually happen in some form in the US but it will take some time. As far as the cost goes , I donít think it will be as much of a savings as we would hope to expect, just a gut feeling but canít see how the government can out perform private industry, see the Elon Musk space launch / budgets.

An example for me is a coworker who has a state employee spouse and elects that insurance over our own company insurance. Now, we are a for profit company and have good to very good health insurance but he elects to decline because the state employee insurance is less out of pocket to them and exceeds our company coverage on all levels. Even with recent cut backs and increased employee cost sharing, a state (non-profit) outperforms a private for profit plan, go figure.

Medicare works fine, sorta. It must be profitable for some institutions since Kaiser Permanente actively recruits seniors nearing Medicare, provides free Medicare education and handles the paperwork for signup.

The coverage is excellent and premiums for advantage plans are reasonable.
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Old 06-27-2020, 10:55 PM   #843
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.................

If we had Medicare for all or some other plan, the overall cost of health care will drop since we wouldn't have to subsidise the uninsured. And poor people would get routine care and not show up at a hospital emergency room in advanced stages of illness where the cost of treatment is considerably more expensive.
.................
Universal medicare is just one step, you also need to have not for profit hospitals which cost less, that is what makes it work here through taxation.
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Old 06-27-2020, 11:35 PM   #844
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Universal medicare is just one step, you also need to have not for profit hospitals which cost less, that is what makes it work here through taxation.
We have Medicare, which includes "free" public hospital treatment. Public hospitals are great for emergencies, not so good for so called "elective" surgery when you can wait a long while. We have a good private hospital system, if you have private health insurance it`s the way to go. Plus you pay a lower "levy"(tax add on) if you have private cover. But if you go into a public hospital and disclose private insurance cover, you`ll end up with a "gap" bill, so people don`t usually use it if admitted to a public hospital. Most public hospitals are good and provide excellent treatment across a broad range of needs. Often "teaching" hospitals, they are by no means 2nd quality places.
Right now our private hospitals are taking public hospital surgery lists as public struggles to catch up with deferred elective surgery put off to clear hospitals for Covid and to save precious PPE and medications. Private hospitals are catching up too, they were required to defer surgery to make ready for Covid overflow patients.
It`s a 2 tiered system which seems to work. Not perfect but not bad. Medicare pays an amount,about half,for GP consults. You pay the difference yourself, unless you use a GP clinic which "bulk bills" the Govt and accepts the Govt paid amount as full payment.
Remarkable how similar systems can be internationally. Though I was once asked for $250 for a GP consult in Canada. A prescribing pharmacist saw my needs met, our pharmacists can`t self prescribe like that.
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Old 06-28-2020, 07:53 PM   #845
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Graph showing worldwide daily confirmed numbers jumping up:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...s/#daily-cases
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Old 06-28-2020, 07:56 PM   #846
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Graph showing worldwide daily confirmed numbers jumping up:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona...s/#daily-cases
Before anyone mentions it, yes, the daily death count has pretty much flat lined, but deaths lag a few weeks behind confirmation.
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Old 06-28-2020, 09:34 PM   #847
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I'm going to be looking to the numbers 24 hours from now.

The Paacific coast of the Americas is at the tail end of the reporting day and I sense there are many locations, like here in BC, which don't report over the weekend, leading to a three day count on Monday.

With a daily increase of cases over the past week, tomorrow could see a big jump.
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Old 06-29-2020, 12:34 AM   #848
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Notice a trend here?

1 to 2.5 million.............................12 weeks

2.5 to 5 million.............................4 weeks

5 to 7.5 million.............................3 weeks

7.5 to 10 million............................17 days
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:03 AM   #849
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If I'm reading this correctly, the US has just over 4% of the world's population, but currently is showing just over 26% of the COVID-19 deaths.

I assume there are differences in reporting protocols, etc. And there are eight countries with a higher per-capita death rate.

But still, are we really doing that poorly? Or am I missing something? I'm not looking to blame anyone here, just a little shocked by the numbers.
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:24 AM   #850
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Very early in the game, the USA lost about 5 weeks before testing became accurate when other countries were testing, isolating those who tested positive, and contact tracing people they had been in contact with who also self isolated.

Five weeks of unchecked spread is an eternity in a Covid-19 timescale. That was the difference.
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:35 AM   #851
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Brazil is probably worse off, but they haven't done much testing. A game of numbers nobody wants to win.
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Old 06-29-2020, 09:52 AM   #852
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In hindsight, the way to control this is to "act early and act big".

What that means is stop importing new cases, testing, testing, contract tracing, and isolation of the exposed and sick. Implement public health measures like mask wearing, social distancing, hygiene measures, and even lockdowns at the first sign of clusters. When infection numbers are relatively small, this can be very effective at stopping or reducing spread. You can see this by looking at the situation in several countries where this has been the case. New Zealand comes to mind as one.

However, it could be political suicide for the politician who implements a strategy like that (at least in some places). Why? Because in hindsight it could easily be argued by opponents that they "over reacted" and actually caused more problems than the disease might have.
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Old 06-29-2020, 10:02 AM   #853
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In hindsight, the way to control this is to "act early and act big".

What that means is stop importing new cases, testing, testing, contract tracing, and isolation of the exposed and sick. Implement public health measures like mask wearing, social distancing, hygiene measures, and even lockdowns at the first sign of clusters. When infection numbers are relatively small, this can be very effective at stopping or reducing spread. You can see this by looking at the situation in several countries where this has been the case. New Zealand comes to mind as one.

However, it could be political suicide for the politician who implements a strategy like that (at least in some places). Why? Because in hindsight it could easily be argued by opponents that they "over reacted" and actually caused more problems than the disease might have.
Human health condition as compared to economic health condition too often encounters a "Damned if You Do / Damned if You Don't" situation.
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Old 06-29-2020, 07:37 PM   #854
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Notice a trend here?

1 to 2.5 million.............................12 weeks

2.5 to 5 million.............................4 weeks

5 to 7.5 million.............................3 weeks

7.5 to 10 million............................17 days
If the daily world infection rate is still only 160,000, the next 1,000,000 can be achieved in 6.25 days. Virus doing well, humanity not. Leaders, please take note.
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Old 06-29-2020, 11:47 PM   #855
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If the daily world infection rate is still only 160,000, the next 1,000,000 can be achieved in 6.25 days. Virus doing well, humanity not. Leaders, please take note.
And the USA is about a week from 3,000,000
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Old 06-30-2020, 01:26 AM   #856
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Hold on guys and gals... C-19 Pandemic is accelerating its life taking, economic debelating national and international intensity. Stay safe! Stay healthy!!
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Old 06-30-2020, 05:59 PM   #857
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Fauci looked demoralized today, warning of the potential for 100,000 new confirmed cases per day in the USA:

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Old 06-30-2020, 06:11 PM   #858
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South Africa's numbers starting to take off, increasing from 1,800 per day to over 6,000 per day in the last month:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../south-africa/
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Old 06-30-2020, 06:54 PM   #859
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South Africa's numbers starting to take off, increasing from 1,800 per day to over 6,000 per day in the last month:

https://www.worldometers.info/corona.../south-africa/
So... Murray

It's fact that the infection rate increase of this pandemic is consistently doubling over and again in too short a time span.

My question: Is/will the death rate eventually create a similar curve? 5% +/- deaths from infections is what I calculated previously.

It seems [from items I review] that death %age of infected cases is reducing.

Your input appreciated.
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Old 06-30-2020, 07:31 PM   #860
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So... Murray

It's fact that the infection rate increase of this pandemic is consistently doubling over and again in too short a time span.

My question: Is/will the death rate eventually create a similar curve? 5% +/- deaths from infections is what I calculated previously.

It seems [from items I review] that death %age of infected cases is reducing.

Your input appreciated.
Haven't been following that end of it too closely.

Worldwide the mortality rate will vary wildly; in countries where there are enough doctors, nurses, hospitals, and intensive care beds the numbers will be lower than where there are few doctors, and intensive care beds are rare.

There seems to be some traction with compounds which inhibit the bodies immune response to the virus. Again, only helps if you are in a country where it's readily available. All bets are off even in 'developed' countries when the number of incoming patients overpasses their ability to discharge current patients.

That's why the front end interests me more than the back end right now...because the second wave will be much bigger and it will overrun much of the gains made in treating patients. Italy and India (battlefield triage) are a glimmer of things to come...

Also, nobody knows what the mortality rate is because nobody knows how many people have/have had Covid-19.

Trying to be realistic and anticipate. Not looking good.
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