Coronavirus and buying a boat

[MurrayM]

Ok, didn't catch the "in the world" part, but still over what time frame?...

Nobody knows. I’m using Spanish Flu (three waves over 14-ish months and both were/are quite contagious with about the same death rate) as a guideline plus statistics collected thus far for Covid 19.

All very scientific in an armchair quarterback knuckle dragging way

 

[BandB]

Nobody knows. I’m using Spanish Flu (three waves over 14-ish months and both were/are quite contagious with about the same death rate) as a guideline plus statistics collected thus far for Covid 19.

All very scientific in an armchair quarterback knuckle dragging way

I've also seen Spanish Flu used by many medical experts as the potential of Covid 19. Two big changes since then. One there's hope we can do a better job. However, offsetting that, a lot more people now.

We've done relatively well with SARS, Ebola and Zika, three conditions in no way similar to each other or to this. Unfortunately, this long ago passed SARS so for comparison we have to look further back. The hope is we contain it far short of the Spanish Flu, but right now we don't even seem able to figure out what to do with one boatload of people, which last I saw was headed out to sea at 15 knots and I have no idea what the plan is.

 

[Ralsy]

First of all, your math is wrong. 40% of 350 million is 140 million. 2% of 130 million is 2.8 million.

Second, In what time frame?

I'm guessing 99% of us have had the flu. With a fatality rate of .5% that's around 1.6 million. We're not coming unhinged because of it. See, time frame is important.

Ted

I do believe he's talking about the world population not just that of the USA. YES, there is a world beyond your border.

 

[O C Diver]

Best calm, matter of fact write-up I've found so far:

https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ensive-ars-technica-guide-to-the-coronavirus/

Ted

 

[O C Diver]

I do believe he's talking about the world population not just that of the USA. YES, there is a world beyond your border.

Maybe if you resisted the urge to be snarky, you would have seen that had already addressed and acknowledged by me.

Ted

 

[Magneto]

Murray, good link to a great technical write up on the COVID-19 virus. I read it at least 3 times to digest the situation. I suggest it to everyone for good reading and decision making.

Ted & Tom, you are right about the scientific community not knowing the true numbers of cases, deaths and survivals. In this write up they admit to this and say they won’t know until it’s all over. There ARE numbers they know that are even more scary. This is an extraction from the article concerning our healthcare readiness:

“In a survey of more than 6,500 nurses in 48 states by National Nurses United, a nationwide union of nurses, only 29 percent reported that their hospitals had plans in place to isolate possible COVID-19 cases. Only 44 percent said their employer had provided them with guidance on how to respond to potential COVID-19 cases, and only 63 percent said they had access to N95 respirators.”

Now this tells me that our healthcare is less than half-ass prepared. If that does not get your attention, then how’s this?

“An early clinical trial in people is expected to start in the coming weeks. If it is successful, a usable vaccine will still take at least a year and a half, according to NIAD’s director, Dr. Fauci—and that is a very optimistic estimate.”

So if people do the right thing, it will help slow this virus down. When have you known people to do the right thing? Washing their hands, avoiding large gatherings, don’t horde, don’t buy mask (unless you’re sick), don’t go out or to work if you’re sick, avoid areas of known outbreaks and stock up on two weeks of supplies in case you have to quarantine yourself at home. So this is all to be done until we get ahead of this thing. Remember the cure may not be ready for a year and a half.

So my wife and I are stepping up our game by doing all the above which in my opinion, is common sense. Except we always have three months of supplies so no change there. Additional sanitizing is becoming our norm.

One more thing. Scientists admit there is not enough test data to be sure but the virus is estimated to live on surfaces from hours to a few days depending on temperatures, surface types, humidity etc. This means, those items in a grocery store you place in your cart, may have been sneezed on prior to you touching it. Food for thought.

So long and thanks for all the fish.

 

[firehoser75]

Magneto,
Great last post there!!! No panic, just talking about taking truly "common sense" precautions. We need everyone to "get on board" with these very basic considerations.
I just watched a documentary on the 1918 Spanish Flu produced in 2018 so not as a reaction to this new situation. Many of the mistakes made back then sound like we are preparing to make them again. Things like "down playing" the situation, not being even close to proactive, medical system totally overwhelmed, no isolation of the sick from the well, etc. Now there are certainly some striking differences to the circumstances (WW 1 raging), the virulence of the disease, treatment options, medical knowledge and procedures, etc. from then to today, but there is still much that we can learn from the leaders (back then) actions or lack thereof and the potential mishandling of the situation.
Good point about the packaging on store shelves. We have or will reach that point soon. Wash your packages (antiseptic wipes, etc.) and wash your hands.

 

[FF]

That old vacuum sealer from sail cruising days may be working overtime this week.

 

[Woodland Hills]

Wearing a face mask will prevent you from touching your face with unclean hands. Even a cotton mask will do this.

 

[CaptainRich]

Just make sure to wash your hands a lot, keep the heat turned up high, don't touch your face and don't shake hands with anyone.

 

[Steve DAntonio]

If one is trying to guess markets, one will be right 50% of the time. If you wait for the perfect time, you'll never buy.

Completely agreed.

All questions about your experimental foray into boat ownership overall aside, perhaps the greater question is, how much value do you place on time, and that's a function of your age and health. If you don't buy a boat now, and you wait 3 years, what's the lost cruising time worth? And, the likelihood of contracting an illness in that time, which may prevent you from cruising as you'd like, only goes up. I can't recall any client telling me they bought too soon, more than a few have told me they waited too long.

A boat might be the ideal apocalyptic escape pod too;-)

 

[jjorgenson3]

Common sense prevails. Our pod is ready, willing and able at a moments notice.

 

[drblank1]

Just wondering what the general consensus is on buying a boat during the Coronavirus event. Should I or shouldn't I? Boat is a 55ft trawler style boat in the half mill range.

I would buy. But if you think there will be an economic downturn, wait until then. You will get a much better deal on a boat.

Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died

 

[Adopo]

The question is: should I buy a boat with an economic downturn coming? Or maybe even a global recession.

I think I would wait just a bit. The liberals/Socialist/Demoncrats have to crash the economy to win. And they still might not win. So I think some people will panic, the understatement of today. Too bad the Amelia Island RM Auction wasn't this weekend as we wanted to buy, but we found out some people will always have money, and may want something more that you want it.

This is good for those with the means who don't mind waiting for a deal like you. That's the way I see it, but my news sources are more than CNN, MSNBC, etc. BTW, we are headed to Europe for a boutique cruise to Monaco GP, and then touring six European countries in a new 992 on Autobahn Adventures. The only thing that might cause an issue is what the mediotes, and those driven by the mediotes might do to disrupt our five star service. That's all. Oh, if time is more important, by all means buy the boat now. At the short end of the stick, it becomes more important. I hate that!

 

[Woodland Hills]

You are going to get on a cruise ship? Boutique or otherwise? Are you sure you will be able to get off?
I hope Italy wasn’t one of the six countries since they just shut down the entire country.

 

[firehoser75]

I would buy. But if you think there will be an economic downturn, wait until then. You will get a much better deal on a boat.

Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died

True enough that the flu is actually a very serious illness and health threat. However, this new virus is something else entirely!!
Please consider: "Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency."
When with the possible exception of the Flu pandemic of 1918, have you heard of a whole country basically "shutting down" over 10% of the world's population at great cost to their economy (and potentially to the world's economy) to try to contain and/or slow down the spread of a disease? When have you ever seen music concerts, sporting events (they just cancelled the Indian Wells BNP Paribas Tennis tournament), and other large gatherings cancelled? Other countries besides China (for example Italy) have taken what we could consider drastic measures to try to get some control over this. What is this? Mass hysteria on a worldwide scale sanctioned by at least several Governments?
At first, most people thought the Spanish Flu was no big deal, until it was too late to do anything about it. Complacency? This new virus is like the Spanish Flu in the context that both were new, never before experienced diseases. No "herd immunity", and no treatment or vaccine.
Don't panic, but this does deserve your careful attention for a large number of logical reasons. Don't take my word for it, look into it for yourself and look at the available data with an "open mind".

 

[Bob M]

I think there are two big considerations here: testing and testing.


We don't have a decent projection of how many people have the disease in the U.S. since so few people have been tested and there's not enough testing kits to figure this out.


We also don't have a projection for how many people have recovered from the virus in the U.S. since we don't have a test to detect the antibodies in recovered people.


We know that the virus (or viruses) are infectious and deadly to some. But without these two tests and widespread scientific testing, projection regarding the spread of this virus is speculation.



These two tests should be available for the masses long before a vaccine is available. My big decisions are on hold until there's enough creditable data available to figure out what in H is going on here, and that includes buying a different boat.


I'm also a bit ticked that our government didn't have it together enough to quickly get these tests developed, manufactured in the 10s of millions and distributed to every corner of the country by now.

 

[Woodland Hills]

South Korea has tested 190,000 people so far and can test up to 15,000 a day. I wish I lived in a country that could do that! It sucks living in a second tier nation at times like this.

 

[MurrayM]

...Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died

0.1% of people who get the flu die. Somewhere around 2% of people who get Covid 19 die.

Nobody on the planet has immunity to Covid 19 so many more will get sick, but let's pretend the same number of people who get the flu in your 2019 example (presumably in the USA) get Covid 19, therefore;

63,000 x 20 = 1,260,000 dead.

Bit of a difference, eh?

 

[drblank1]

0.1% of people who get the flu die. Somewhere around 2% of people who get Covid 19 die.

Nobody on the planet has immunity to Covid 19 so many more will get sick, but let's pretend the same number of people who get the flu in your 2019 get Covid 19, therefore;

63,000 x 20 = 126,000 dead, presumably in the US.

Bit of a difference, eh?

CDC believes the mortality rate is MUCH lower as many who have contracted COVID-19 without weakened immune systems do recover without issue and thus, many more cases have gone unreported. Just like the common flu, COVID-19 is more dangerous to +65 year people with weakened immune systems than rest of the population.

But as you can see from my post, I did not take a stance on the issue. Did not say we should panic nor did I say we should take it lightly. Our reaction and preparation should be somewhere in the middle.

He should buy his boat now or wait if he feels the economy will crash. Either way, I will be boating this summer.

 

[MurrayM]

CDC believes the mortality rate is MUCH lower as many who have contracted COVID-19 without weakened immune systems do recover without issue and thus, many more cases have gone unreported. Just like the common flu, COVID-19 is more dangerous to +65 year people with weakened immune systems than rest of the population.

But as you can see from my post, I did not take a stance on the issue. Did not say we should panic nor did I say we should take it lightly. Our reaction and preparation should be somewhere in the middle.

He should buy his boat now or wait if he feels the economy will crash. Either way, I will be boating this summer.

Screwed up on the math...1,260,000 dead...

 

[Dawdler]

I keep reading here of an assumed 2% mortality rate. However, the death rate is dramatically influenced by age and overall health.

"Overall, China CDC found, 2.3% of confirmed cases died. But the fatality rate was 14.8% in people 80 or older, likely reflecting the presence of other diseases, a weaker immune system, or simply worse overall health. By contrast, the fatality rate was 1.3% in 50-somethings, 0.4% in 40-somethings, and 0.2% in people 10 to 39."

So if you're under forty, the death rate is not 2% but .2%

 

[Reelalure]

I have no idea what the right answer is but my wife and I jus flew to Florida this weekend to complete a survey/sea trail on our dream trawler. I have the same question and fear. I think if we wait we could probably buy it a little cheaper but this boat seams perfect for us and very well maintained. We had a smaller one for 13 years and have missed it ever since we sold it last summer. The trip to FL did not kill us and I doubt this purchase will either. I got some good advice one time, if you can afford it, buy it, enjoy it and don’t worry about it!

 

[Lollygag1]

Wish my boat was in the water I would tell work I have to quarantine for a few weeks.

 

[Robster_in_edmonds]

Is this a good time to buy a trawler?

I've been away from the forum for a while. Recently retired and I have been paying a lot (too much?) of attention to the Wuhan coronavirus. Is this a good time to buy a 55' trawler, in light of the coronavirus?

Here are the possibilities as I see them:
1. "It's just the flu, bro." Ignore all of the evidence we see in Italy and Iran, and what we have been able to see from the Internet-censored China, and assume a year from now we'll look back and see that it was no big deal. No impact on boat prices now or later. My odds are 1/100. Or less.
2. It's bad, but not that bad. The virus spreads like crazy, but with a Case Fatality Rate of 1% spread evenly across ages, but with a higher concentration on third-world countries. No impact on boat prices now or later. My odds are 1/100. Or less.
3. It's like the Spanish Flu. 2% CFR, targets the elderly the hardest. Boat prices fall dramatically as middle-aged children inherit boats that they don't want and can't afford to maintain. By this time next year your 55' trawler will be listed for half of today's price and the sellers will gladly accept half of that. Buy a $300,000 trawler for $75,000. My odds: 60%.
4. It's worse than the Spanish Flu. 8% CFR, elderly die in the first week, middle-aged die in week three of the illness. Hospitals are overwhelmed and it doesn't matter how wonderful your country is, there are no beds, meds, doctors or nurses. Boats are literally being given away if you'll just take over the moorage. My odds: 30%.
5. It's an apocalyptic event. Take Number 4, but now the virus goes dormant in your central nervous system, recurs periodically, and eventually you get a cytokine storm and die. Preppers and genetically fortunate people live, but 80% of the world's population dies over a three-year period. You buy the boat, walk away from your mortgaged house, buy some guns and ammo, and live the next twenty years on the water. My odds: 8%.

There is so much we don't know about the virus. But what we do know so far (not what people are saying, but what we are seeing in hospitals) is that this thing is very bad and it has just begun. It took three years before the Spanish Flu abated, and it did the most killing during year two. We are, for the most part, in month two.

I'm 63 and just retired seven months ago. If I were in Northern Italy and symptomatic they would turn me away because I'm over 60. If I were still living in Greater Seattle my wife and I would be on our boat with six months' worth of canned goods and the freezer loaded with meat. Crab, salmon and halibut as often as we could catch it. Probably bored and lonely, too. Who knows?

 

[cabinetman1955]

Price, mate. If the world goes to **** in the next 12 months boats will be able to be bought allot cheaper than the price they are now. If for some reason boating is not for me and I want to sell then I'm up the proverbial **** creek.

And if a meteor hits the earth you wind have to worry about it. To many if's.
Offer them $ 300,000
They might just take it.

 

[Jeff F]

Circling back to the original question, I think we may see that global financial pressures are going to have a much higher impact on boat prices than C-19. We may be heading into an extended buyers market.

 

[syjos]

I would buy. But if you think there will be an economic downturn, wait until then. You will get a much better deal on a boat.

Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died

I agree. I stated in post #24 that the Coronavirus was blown way out of proportion in comparison to the annual flu and received push back.

The H1N1 in 2009 was declared a Phase 6 level "Pandemic" by the WHO. The initial death rate statistic was very high in the 8% range but ended up around .05% after the dust cleared. 12,469 deaths in US - 14,000 worldwide.

Did we panic in 2009?

The WHO has yet to declare the Coronavirus a pandemic.

The symptoms are minor for a lot of people affected that probably don't know they have it. If those people are added to the total affected, the death percentage will go down.

It seems to hit people with other medical issues the hardest. If you are in good health, I would not worry. If you are in poor health, quarantine yourself!

Difference between 2009 and now? The media overhyping everything and not fact checking enough, web circulating nonfactual information and people believing everything they get from media.

 

[firehoser75]

And China basically shutting down 10% of the world's population at huge cost to their economy, Italy now doing much the same including stopping all weddings, baptisms, etc., and Iran (and other Muslim countries) stopping prayer and even closing some of their religious shrines happens every year due to the flu?
Must be mass hysteria and overhype by the media, but these Governments seemed to have drunk the koolaid. In the US, Indian Wells just cancelled their massive professional tennis tournament. Government of Canada has told it's citizens to avoid any cruises and unnecessary travel. Why is that, I wonder?

Not that they are the same, and many circumstances are different, but when the Spanish Flu got started there was a lot of ill informed complacency and denial then as well. How did that work out for them? This is only about 2.5 months since this really got under way. We are just barely off the start line.

"Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency."

 

[BruceK]

I would not let the virus stop me buying a boat. Not so sure about the economic upheaval and oil supply dispute going on between OPEC and Russia, some of which I hear is opportunistically aimed at US oil companies.
Here the Federal Health Minister said yesterday: If you have symptoms get tested, we`d rather overtest than undertest. (Hmm I thought, I should get tested for my atypical 3 week cold.)
Result: Test facilities, Drs,Hospitals, etc overrun today, lots of pushback from State authorities doing the testing,only wanting to test sick overseas returnees and people exposed to them. We are not as prepared as I hoped. And not at all ready if things blow up.