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Old 03-08-2020, 01:58 PM   #121
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Ok, didn't catch the "in the world" part, but still over what time frame?...
Nobody knows. I’m using Spanish Flu (three waves over 14-ish months and both were/are quite contagious with about the same death rate) as a guideline plus statistics collected thus far for Covid 19.

All very scientific in an armchair quarterback knuckle dragging way
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Old 03-08-2020, 02:18 PM   #122
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Nobody knows. Iím using Spanish Flu (three waves over 14-ish months and both were/are quite contagious with about the same death rate) as a guideline plus statistics collected thus far for Covid 19.

All very scientific in an armchair quarterback knuckle dragging way
I've also seen Spanish Flu used by many medical experts as the potential of Covid 19. Two big changes since then. One there's hope we can do a better job. However, offsetting that, a lot more people now.

We've done relatively well with SARS, Ebola and Zika, three conditions in no way similar to each other or to this. Unfortunately, this long ago passed SARS so for comparison we have to look further back. The hope is we contain it far short of the Spanish Flu, but right now we don't even seem able to figure out what to do with one boatload of people, which last I saw was headed out to sea at 15 knots and I have no idea what the plan is.
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Old 03-08-2020, 02:25 PM   #123
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First of all, your math is wrong. 40% of 350 million is 140 million. 2% of 130 million is 2.8 million.

Second, In what time frame?

I'm guessing 99% of us have had the flu. With a fatality rate of .5% that's around 1.6 million. We're not coming unhinged because of it. See, time frame is important.

Ted
I do believe he's talking about the world population not just that of the USA. YES, there is a world beyond your border.
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Old 03-08-2020, 02:42 PM   #124
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Best calm, matter of fact write-up I've found so far:

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...e-coronavirus/


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Old 03-08-2020, 02:45 PM   #125
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I do believe he's talking about the world population not just that of the USA. YES, there is a world beyond your border.
Maybe if you resisted the urge to be snarky, you would have seen that had already addressed and acknowledged by me.

Ted
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Old 03-08-2020, 05:55 PM   #126
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Murray, good link to a great technical write up on the COVID-19 virus. I read it at least 3 times to digest the situation. I suggest it to everyone for good reading and decision making.

Ted & Tom, you are right about the scientific community not knowing the true numbers of cases, deaths and survivals. In this write up they admit to this and say they wonít know until itís all over. There ARE numbers they know that are even more scary. This is an extraction from the article concerning our healthcare readiness:

ďIn a survey of more than 6,500 nurses in 48 states by National Nurses United, a nationwide union of nurses, only 29 percent reported that their hospitals had plans in place to isolate possible COVID-19 cases. Only 44 percent said their employer had provided them with guidance on how to respond to potential COVID-19 cases, and only 63 percent said they had access to N95 respirators.Ē

Now this tells me that our healthcare is less than half-ass prepared. If that does not get your attention, then howís this?

ďAn early clinical trial in people is expected to start in the coming weeks. If it is successful, a usable vaccine will still take at least a year and a half, according to NIADís director, Dr. Faucióand that is a very optimistic estimate.Ē

So if people do the right thing, it will help slow this virus down. When have you known people to do the right thing? Washing their hands, avoiding large gatherings, donít horde, donít buy mask (unless youíre sick), donít go out or to work if youíre sick, avoid areas of known outbreaks and stock up on two weeks of supplies in case you have to quarantine yourself at home. So this is all to be done until we get ahead of this thing. Remember the cure may not be ready for a year and a half.

So my wife and I are stepping up our game by doing all the above which in my opinion, is common sense. Except we always have three months of supplies so no change there. Additional sanitizing is becoming our norm.

One more thing. Scientists admit there is not enough test data to be sure but the virus is estimated to live on surfaces from hours to a few days depending on temperatures, surface types, humidity etc. This means, those items in a grocery store you place in your cart, may have been sneezed on prior to you touching it. Food for thought.

So long and thanks for all the fish.
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Old 03-08-2020, 06:59 PM   #127
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Magneto,
Great last post there!!! No panic, just talking about taking truly "common sense" precautions. We need everyone to "get on board" with these very basic considerations.
I just watched a documentary on the 1918 Spanish Flu produced in 2018 so not as a reaction to this new situation. Many of the mistakes made back then sound like we are preparing to make them again. Things like "down playing" the situation, not being even close to proactive, medical system totally overwhelmed, no isolation of the sick from the well, etc. Now there are certainly some striking differences to the circumstances (WW 1 raging), the virulence of the disease, treatment options, medical knowledge and procedures, etc. from then to today, but there is still much that we can learn from the leaders (back then) actions or lack thereof and the potential mishandling of the situation.
Good point about the packaging on store shelves. We have or will reach that point soon. Wash your packages (antiseptic wipes, etc.) and wash your hands.
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Old 03-09-2020, 06:09 AM   #128
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That old vacuum sealer from sail cruising days may be working overtime this week.
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Old 03-09-2020, 10:02 AM   #129
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Wearing a face mask will prevent you from touching your face with unclean hands. Even a cotton mask will do this.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:33 PM   #130
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Just make sure to wash your hands a lot, keep the heat turned up high, don't touch your face and don't shake hands with anyone.
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Old 03-09-2020, 12:59 PM   #131
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If one is trying to guess markets, one will be right 50% of the time. If you wait for the perfect time, you'll never buy.
Completely agreed.

All questions about your experimental foray into boat ownership overall aside, perhaps the greater question is, how much value do you place on time, and that's a function of your age and health. If you don't buy a boat now, and you wait 3 years, what's the lost cruising time worth? And, the likelihood of contracting an illness in that time, which may prevent you from cruising as you'd like, only goes up. I can't recall any client telling me they bought too soon, more than a few have told me they waited too long.

A boat might be the ideal apocalyptic escape pod too;-)
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Old 03-09-2020, 02:25 PM   #132
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Old 03-09-2020, 03:02 PM   #133
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Just wondering what the general consensus is on buying a boat during the Coronavirus event. Should I or shouldn't I? Boat is a 55ft trawler style boat in the half mill range.
I would buy. But if you think there will be an economic downturn, wait until then. You will get a much better deal on a boat.

Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:01 PM   #134
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The question is: should I buy a boat with an economic downturn coming? Or maybe even a global recession.
I think I would wait just a bit. The liberals/Socialist/Demoncrats have to crash the economy to win. And they still might not win. So I think some people will panic, the understatement of today. Too bad the Amelia Island RM Auction wasn't this weekend as we wanted to buy, but we found out some people will always have money, and may want something more that you want it.

This is good for those with the means who don't mind waiting for a deal like you. That's the way I see it, but my news sources are more than CNN, MSNBC, etc. BTW, we are headed to Europe for a boutique cruise to Monaco GP, and then touring six European countries in a new 992 on Autobahn Adventures. The only thing that might cause an issue is what the mediotes, and those driven by the mediotes might do to disrupt our five star service. That's all. Oh, if time is more important, by all means buy the boat now. At the short end of the stick, it becomes more important. I hate that!
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:08 PM   #135
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You are going to get on a cruise ship? Boutique or otherwise? Are you sure you will be able to get off?
I hope Italy wasn’t one of the six countries since they just shut down the entire country.
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:14 PM   #136
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I would buy. But if you think there will be an economic downturn, wait until then. You will get a much better deal on a boat.

Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died

True enough that the flu is actually a very serious illness and health threat. However, this new virus is something else entirely!!
Please consider: "Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency."
When with the possible exception of the Flu pandemic of 1918, have you heard of a whole country basically "shutting down" over 10% of the world's population at great cost to their economy (and potentially to the world's economy) to try to contain and/or slow down the spread of a disease? When have you ever seen music concerts, sporting events (they just cancelled the Indian Wells BNP Paribas Tennis tournament), and other large gatherings cancelled? Other countries besides China (for example Italy) have taken what we could consider drastic measures to try to get some control over this. What is this? Mass hysteria on a worldwide scale sanctioned by at least several Governments?
At first, most people thought the Spanish Flu was no big deal, until it was too late to do anything about it. Complacency? This new virus is like the Spanish Flu in the context that both were new, never before experienced diseases. No "herd immunity", and no treatment or vaccine.
Don't panic, but this does deserve your careful attention for a large number of logical reasons. Don't take my word for it, look into it for yourself and look at the available data with an "open mind".
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:15 PM   #137
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I think there are two big considerations here: testing and testing.


We don't have a decent projection of how many people have the disease in the U.S. since so few people have been tested and there's not enough testing kits to figure this out.


We also don't have a projection for how many people have recovered from the virus in the U.S. since we don't have a test to detect the antibodies in recovered people.


We know that the virus (or viruses) are infectious and deadly to some. But without these two tests and widespread scientific testing, projection regarding the spread of this virus is speculation.



These two tests should be available for the masses long before a vaccine is available. My big decisions are on hold until there's enough creditable data available to figure out what in H is going on here, and that includes buying a different boat.


I'm also a bit ticked that our government didn't have it together enough to quickly get these tests developed, manufactured in the 10s of millions and distributed to every corner of the country by now.
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Old 03-09-2020, 04:21 PM   #138
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South Korea has tested 190,000 people so far and can test up to 15,000 a day. I wish I lived in a country that could do that! It sucks living in a second tier nation at times like this.
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Old 03-09-2020, 05:23 PM   #139
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...Just to put the COVID-19 in perspective:

Common flu stat for 2019
43 million contracted
700k people were hospitalized
63k people died

2018
49 million contracted the flu
nearly 1 million hospitalized
80k died
0.1% of people who get the flu die. Somewhere around 2% of people who get Covid 19 die.

Nobody on the planet has immunity to Covid 19 so many more will get sick, but let's pretend the same number of people who get the flu in your 2019 example (presumably in the USA) get Covid 19, therefore;

63,000 x 20 = 1,260,000 dead.

Bit of a difference, eh?
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Old 03-09-2020, 05:38 PM   #140
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0.1% of people who get the flu die. Somewhere around 2% of people who get Covid 19 die.

Nobody on the planet has immunity to Covid 19 so many more will get sick, but let's pretend the same number of people who get the flu in your 2019 get Covid 19, therefore;

63,000 x 20 = 126,000 dead, presumably in the US.

Bit of a difference, eh?
CDC believes the mortality rate is MUCH lower as many who have contracted COVID-19 without weakened immune systems do recover without issue and thus, many more cases have gone unreported. Just like the common flu, COVID-19 is more dangerous to +65 year people with weakened immune systems than rest of the population.

But as you can see from my post, I did not take a stance on the issue. Did not say we should panic nor did I say we should take it lightly. Our reaction and preparation should be somewhere in the middle.

He should buy his boat now or wait if he feels the economy will crash. Either way, I will be boating this summer.
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