Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[BruceK]

Celebrity Australia is offering cruise cancellation on 48 hours notice for departures scheduled until July 31,2020. You can select another cruise, or have a "Future Cruise Credit" for cruise departures up to 31 December 2021. Not perfect, but not their fault either.

We bought airfares returning from our Pacific destination separately so we have to negotiate that ourselves. I`ve yet to check the airline stance.

 

[BandB]

Celebrity Australia is offering cruise cancellation on 48 hours notice for departures scheduled until July 31,2020. You can select another cruise, or have a "Future Cruise Credit" for cruise departures up to 31 December 2021. Not perfect, but not their fault either.

We bought airfares returning from our Pacific destination separately so we have to negotiate that ourselves. I`ve yet to check the airline stance.

Not your fault either though and yet they choose to hold on to your money even though not providing the service. Then they hope the majority of customers with future cruise credits don't use them or they'll end up in the future having to operate cruises without much cash coming in. Or perhaps they'll limit the number of staterooms on a cruise which can be paid for by credits.

Now, if you cancel an order with most businesses they don't get to hold on to your money.

 

[slowgoesit]

My wife and I make metal sculptures. If a customer commissions a sculpture and pays in advance, but we can't complete a commission, whether it's our fault, or for instance, a supplier can't provide Cor-Ten Steel, or Stainless Steel, We certainly wouldn't feel justified in keeping the customers money, whether we say they can use it on a future commission or not. We didn't provide what we promised to, for whatever reason, so we shouldn't get compensation.
If a cruise line can't provide a SAFE environment, than I should be be able to cancel my cruise and get a full refund. Of course most cruise lines have copious policies, contract wording, etc, some of which they even disclose, that most customers agree to when they pay, so I guess it's buyer beware.
Maybe we should include verbiage in our contracts that says if we don't complete a commissions because we no longer feel like doing the work, than we can still keep the customer's money! It's a business model. It's probably legal if the customer agrees to it. But it's hardly ethical . . .
Perhaps they promise a "credit" on future cruises, because they figure they will go into bankruptcy protection, and won't have to honor those promises anyway. As stated above, it's a business model. And it's probably legal. But it's hardly ethical.

 

[Woodland Hills]

The first (of many?) lawsuit was filed today by a couple who were on the ship off of San Francisco that is now docked in Oakland. Their claim is that the company should not have let them board knowing that the previous voyage had passengers or crew that had come down with COVID19. They further claim that they were not told of what the company knew and were thus unable to make an informed decision as to whether or not to board. They are asking for $1m.

 

[Art]

Stock Market TV News:

Cruise line industry contemplating no persons over 70 yrs old.

 

[AlaskaProf]

Stock Market TV News:

Cruise line industry contemplating no persons over 70 yrs old.

And Norwegian has directed marketing staff to advise that Caribean climate inhibits covid19.

 

[AlaskaProf]

The first (of many?) lawsuit was filed today by a couple who were on the ship off of San Francisco that is now docked in Oakland. ... They are asking for $1m.

Speaking of thing which grow exponentially.

 

[slowgoesit]

And Norwegian has directed marketing staff to advise that Caribean climate inhibits covid19.

And they know this HOW?


Maybe if the passengers spend all their time outside on deck, away from other pax . . . but the environment in a cruise ship, in your cabin, in the dining rooms, etc, is probably air conditioned to about the same conditions in the Caribbean, to say between China and Hong Kong, or Hawaii and San Franscisco . . . . . Say, weren't those locations just in the news in conjunction with cruise ships recently?!?

 

[BandB]

Reading the latest, I can only reach two conclusions:

1. The Cruise Industry just doesn't get it.

or

2. The Cruise Industry fully gets it, just doesn't care.

We've seen them with the Princess ships and one comes in with Covid 19 patients but they board it and sail again, with much of the same crew even. We've seen their no-refund policies. Now, no one over 70 perhaps. Do they not grasp that if 25% of those aboard get the virus, they'll give it to a lot of over 70 people when they get home? Then the Caribbean is safe. Really, or just not hit yet as very recently we've seen cases from throughout the area.

Worldwide we're seeing calls against gatherings of large numbers of people. You know, like the numbers on cruise ships. No gatherings of over 250 in some areas but thousands on cruise ships. Just as many of us have said no way we'd get on one at this time, they apparently refuse to admit that no one should be getting on them. Yes, the reality is a horrendous situation to have to face, but don't pretend it's all ok.

 

[Art]

Covid 19, for which humanity currently has no alternative rather than "duck and hide" has been deemed 10X [ten times] more deadly than the general flu. Extrapolate that number... if Covid 19 gets chance to run rampant, unchecked.

40K +/- annual flu deaths / 400K +/- Covid 19 deaths. That's if other sickness transmission factors remained even.

 

[Woodland Hills]

In Italy they are so overwhelmed that there is a recommendation that a maximum age limit for respiratory support be instated. There aren’t enough ICU beds and respirators to go around and they are having to limit them to those with the best chance of survival.

This is what exponential growth looks like: for a long time you cannot see anything then in a matter of days it explodes overwhelming the hospitals. We are now in the can’t see anything stage and just a couple of weeks away from the exploding stage. Best estimates are that every 4 to 5 days the number of infected doubles. It’s been here since January as the tests in Washington state have shown so do the math.......

Starting with one case doubling every 5 days 18 cycles gives 524,288 cases in 90 days if left unchecked. Mid April will be 90 days. Over the next ten days it then goes to 2 million.

 

[slowgoesit]

This is hitting home for us personally. The Kentucky Arts Council out of an abundance of caution, just cancelled their annual Kentucky Crafted Market scheduled for this weekend. We have been doing this show since 2008, and it is one of our best shows of the year. They made a tough decision that is going to impact a lot of people, but we believe time will bear out that they made the right call.
We were all loaded up and ready to set up tomorrow. But now no where to go! For anyone who is interested, here is what a loaded horse trailer looks like! Also a captive butterfly! . . . colors on the butterfly aren't really representative of the actual color. . .

For what it's worth, and even knowing that we'll take a major financial hit form the cancellation, I think it's the right call, as are all the other cancellations going on. That's why I believe that continuing to have cruise ship departures is irresponsible at best, and potentially criminal at worst. Just my $3.87 worth ($0.02 adjusted for inflation).

 

[BandB]

This is hitting home for us personally. The Kentucky Arts Council out of an abundance of caution, just cancelled their annual Kentucky Crafted Market scheduled for this weekend. We have been doing this show since 2008, and it is one of our best shows of the year. They made a tough decision that is going to impact a lot of people, but we believe time will bear out that they made the right call.
We were all loaded up and ready to set up tomorrow. But now no where to go! For anyone who is interested, here is what a loaded horse trailer looks like! Also a captive butterfly! . . . colors on the butterfly aren't really representative of the actual color. . .

For what it's worth, and even knowing that we'll take a major financial hit form the cancellation, I think it's the right call, as are all the other cancellations going on. That's why I believe that continuing to have cruise ship departures is irresponsible at best, and potentially criminal at worst. Just my $3.87 worth ($0.02 adjusted for inflation).

We're seeing similar everywhere. Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo is huge and they just shut down.

Each of these brings financial loss to various individuals involved and to the show promoters. I intend to watch an NBA game without fans tomorrow night just to see what it feels like. NCAA tournaments to be paid without fans. Golden State will lose over $4 million in revenue tomorrow night. Houston lost millions in shutting down the show.

As to cruise lines, irresponsible vs criminal, I go for depraved indifference as the crime.

 

[Jeff F]

As to cruise lines, irresponsible vs criminal, I go for depraved indifference as the crime.

That's pretty much where I fetch up. But there are many willing accomplices. Ports and host communities are entrenched in the business model. All decisions are consequential. It's a difficult situation.

I think there will be rapid developments in the story starting shortly

 

[Pete Meisinger]

When I made the original post I was certain the cruise industry would survive. Now I am not so sure. Princess cruise lines has suspended all operations on its 18 ships for two months. Most others are making drastic changes in their business plan.One, at least is even telling its employees to outright lie to sell passages.

Plain and simple, people are not cruising. It is the corona virus which may be pounding the death nail but personally I would never get on a cruise ship long before this latest crisis. Bad food, bad water, flu outbreaks, etc. convinced me long ago to stay away.

Any industry so heavily mortgaged is living close to the edge.

I'll say it again, "Good Riddance'

pete

 

[OldDan1943]

No one over 70? It took forever to satisfy the "You must be this tall to ride the ride." and over night, I am too old. SHRUG
One of those little known secrets of the big cruise liners, they have a morgue onboard.
There were a couple of suicides on subs. They just cleared out space in the fridge to store the body until the end of the patrol.

 

[Donsan]

No one over 70?

Don't we have laws against age discrimination?

 

[slowgoesit]

Don't we have laws against age discrimination?

They wouldn't apply if the party could demonstrate a safety concern for a certain age. CDCP issuing a statement that over 60 are XXX % more liable to succumb to a desease would probably suffice. I'm not an attorney though. I had an honest job.

 

[OldDan1943]

They are foreign flagged.... Our laws may not apply unless law enforcement is invited onboard.
Guess you will have to take to the liberal 9th circuit court of appeal --- Calif
Failing that, take it to the UN.
Or one final option, just say, "Thank god, now I have a real reason not to spend my money on a cruise."
Hmmmm, maybe your wife and mother-in- want to go on a cruise. LOL

 

[Jeff F]

When I made the original post I was certain the cruise industry would survive. Now I am not so sure. Princess cruise lines has suspended all operations on its 18 ships for two months. Most others are making drastic changes in their business plan.One, at least is even telling its employees to outright lie to sell passages.

Plain and simple, people are not cruising. It is the corona virus which may be pounding the death nail but personally I would never get on a cruise ship long before this latest crisis. Bad food, bad water, flu outbreaks, etc. convinced me long ago to stay away.

Any industry so heavily mortgaged is living close to the edge.

I'll say it again, "Good Riddance'

pete

The ships will survive. And they'll inevitably sail again in some capacity. But it's not going back to what it was any time soon.

 

[slowgoesit]

Hmmmm, maybe your wife and mother-in- want to go on a cruise. LOL

You're a BAD MAN, Charlie Brown!

 

[OldDan1943]

You're a BAD MAN, Charlie Brown!

and your point is?

 

[AlaskaProf]

Interesting letter from Viking, which has just suspended all ops until May1_(at least): "...as a privately held company with sound finances, we don't need to worry about quarterly profitability..."

 

[BandB]

Interesting letter from Viking, which has just suspended all ops until May1_(at least): "...as a privately held company with sound finances, we don't need to worry about quarterly profitability..."

Viking's a relatively small company. However, as the owner of a privately held company with sound finances, I find what they're saying to be totally irrelevant BS. We don't have to worry about reporting numbers or stock market or shareholders, but we sure worry about taking care of employees and other expenses for two weeks or a month or six weeks with no revenues. Viking has 5000 employees. I'd love to hear what they're doing for them. Likely nothing if they're not worrying. We're very worried about our employees. Beyond their pay, I'm worried about their 401-K's. I'm worried about business during a serious recession. And let's get this right, recession is if we're lucky. This freefall and worldwide potential tops any recession in our lifetime and has the potential of being the ""D" word.

We're very worried about the potential of the US having a lockdown like Italy is having.

 

[Lou_tribal]

Viking's a relatively small company. However, as the owner of a privately held company with sound finances, I find what they're saying to be totally irrelevant BS. We don't have to worry about reporting numbers or stock market or shareholders, but we sure worry about taking care of employees and other expenses for two weeks or a month or six weeks with no revenues. Viking has 5000 employees. I'd love to hear what they're doing for them. Likely nothing if they're not worrying. We're very worried about our employees. Beyond their pay, I'm worried about their 401-K's. I'm worried about business during a serious recession. And let's get this right, recession is if we're lucky. This freefall and worldwide potential tops any recession in our lifetime and has the potential of being the ""D" word.

We're very worried about the potential of the US having a lockdown like Italy is having.

Most of companies are saying to care about employees but are more caring to maintain operations and to be able to resume operations when a crisis is over, business resumption plan. I am not saying it is your case.
Market is reacting irrationally to what is happening like people are doing based on communicated message, after all, ones takng decisions are humans like anybody else. Problem is the communicated message and its impact.
When the fox is in the chicken coop, do you try to close the door or do you try to kill the fox and save the chickens?

L

 

[BruceK]

Markets were "overvalued" due to people shoveling $ that might otherwise be on cash deposit earning interest, into shares/stock. Personal opinion only our sharemarket was near 20% overvalue. Sharemarkets can look for a reason to correct, but yes, this is more than that.
I expect the cruise industry generally to suspend ops for some period. But it will survive, imo. Less sure about myself. Prediction here is 20% of population will get it: in Germany Angela Merkel predicts 70%. Guesswork? Stand by for a German influx.
The opening F1 GP here just got cancelled. Some sick McLaren team members already,so soon they have to have brought it with them. Unlike Tom Hanks.

 

[BandB]

The average bear market lasts 21 months and drops 39.9%. 860 US Stocks hit their all time lows today. You look at some and you can't immediately figure it out, but a lot of them make a lot of sense based on their industries and the nature of their business. Some surprised me until I really thought about them.

 

[catalinajack]

When the first stock market tumble hit ten days or so ago, I told my wife that, if we were invested in equities I would have sold every last share. I wish I did have equities and was now sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the market to bottom out and then buying back in at bargain prices. The market dropping makes no sense? Made perfect sense to me. The market reacts to rumor and fear every damn day.

Once again, the media has lost its objective reporting....
The stock market is tumbling, why? It makes no sense. People need to buy stuff.

 

[rtheriault]

What about bareboat chartering. It seems like a much safer way to go although you don’t have someone catering to you night and day.

 

[FF]

" I wish I did have equities and was now sitting on a pile of cash waiting for the market to bottom out and then buying back in at bargain prices."

One problem of course is knowing where the bottom is.

When Fanny & Freddy crashed the housing bubble the Dow went down to about 6,000 , thats a long way to go from here !

Last time we had a big blowout , 1929, the market had bottomed and a new president made changes that pushed it down for another decade.

That could be a repeat.