Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[Lollygag1]

I did a 3 month cruise of AK on a fishing boat where I worked 18hrs a day in summer of 85

[twistedtree]

Originally Posted by backinblue

I suppose a big cruise ship Art? What part of AK? I just returned from a very small boat cruise out of Juneau. Happy to share my experiences and advice if it's relevant to your upcoming trip. Don't feel bad, embrace it and enjoy it!

I'm curious what outfit & trip, and how you liked it. I see all of them when we are out and about, and wonder how they are. We went on a Nat Geo/Lindlbad cruise here with about 30 people 10 or 12 years ago and it got us hooked.

[BruceK]

Here`s a snippet from a financial report:
"Shares of cruise lines dropped after Carnival said it would sell $1 billion of new stock. Carnival fell $1.24, or 11%, to $9.85 and was the biggest laggard on the S&P 500. Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were also among the index's top decliners."
Not sounding positive. They must have lost vast $ income while still carrying expenses. No surprise they are running cruises back to back even with Covid occurring on board.

[Benthic2]

I would think their expenses would be minimal during covid. No fuel if the ships are stationary, no wages other than skeleton crew, reduced insurance since no passengers..... The biggest is probably the debt service on their new ships, but the banks aren't going to want to foreclose so probably very willing to renegotiate.

[tiltrider1]

Originally Posted by BruceK

Here`s a snippet from a financial report:
"Shares of cruise lines dropped after Carnival said it would sell $1 billion of new stock. Carnival fell $1.24, or 11%, to $9.85 and was the biggest laggard on the S&P 500. Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were also among the index's top decliners."
Not sounding positive. They must have lost vast $ income while still carrying expenses. No surprise they are running cruises back to back even with Covid occurring on board.

Let’s take a good look at what this really means. Carnival is raising a billion dollars of cash by selling additional stock, why? Is it because they expect to burn through cash to stay alive, or do they see an opportunity to acquire capital assets at fire sale prices? The Market sees a significant number of new share holders that will now be sharing the same old company profits, this means less revenue per share so naturally Market made an adjustment.

What if Carnival acquires several competitors and doubles its revenue? The Market will quickly go up. Stock price fluctuations are so short sighted that you can’t really read anything into them.

I do not like boom or bust investments. I would never invest in a cruise line or an airline for that matter. I can’t understand what people see in cruises, add to that the potential for mass illnesses. Yet, I see people rushing back to go cruising. I don’t think the industry is dead.

The truth is more likely that we here on TF do not understand the mind of the average middle class worker who lives in Kansas City and has never seen the Ocean except for the one time he/she went on a cruise.

[BruceK]

Originally Posted by tiltrider1

Let’s take a good look at what this really means. Carnival is raising a billion dollars of cash by selling additional stock, why? Is it because they expect to burn through cash to stay alive, or do they see an opportunity to acquire capital assets at fire sale prices? The Market sees a significant number of new share holders that will now be sharing the same old company profits, this means less revenue per share so naturally Market made an adjustment. .

Of course. Existing stockholders get diluted by new shares/stock being sold, probably to an institution in this case. A good company doing that would offer stock to existing stockholders at a similar issue price to avoid dilution. Even so,the company has 1Bn. more in capital,or (more likely) 1Bn less debt.

Cruise lines, having lost 2 years of revenue while still incurring expenses, have to be hurting. Qantas, a relatively small airline, says it missed 24Bn of revenue during it`s closedown/limited operation, but its share(= stock here) price only dropped 20%.

[backinblue]

Originally Posted by twistedtree

I'm curious what outfit & trip, and how you liked it. I see all of them when we are out and about, and wonder how they are. We went on a Nat Geo/Lindlbad cruise here with about 30 people 10 or 12 years ago and it got us hooked.

We were with Uncruise.com on the ship Wilderness Legacy. Began and ended in Juneau. Look it up and I will be happy to provide any addtional info anyone has.

[backinblue]

Don't wade too far into the political waters Hippo....

[HTurner]

News stories like these don't help cruise lines:


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...2-million.html

[backinblue]

Sad story, but that could happen anywhere, not sure it specifically hurts cruises.

[slowgoesit]

Originally Posted by backinblue

We were with Uncruise.com on the ship Wilderness Legacy. Began and ended in Juneau. Look it up and I will be happy to provide any addtional info anyone has.

We saw an Uncruise boat/ship in Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay. They looked like a much more appealing way to "cruise ship" cruise.

[backinblue]

Originally Posted by slowgoesit

We saw an Uncruise boat/ship in Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay. They looked like a much more appealing way to "cruise ship" cruise.

We were in there a few weeks ago. In fact, they said our boat was probably the first boat allowed to enter when the season officially opened on 7/1. A few big cruise ships came and went that day. They are there about 30 mins for photo ops. We were there all day including some kayaking and hiking on the glacier.

[BruceK]

Financial Report Extract:
"Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell nearly 11% after reporting a wider-than-expected quarterly loss. Shares of peer cruise line Carnival Corporation fell 5.4% as pockets of the travel sector struggle to recover from the pandemic"
Not out of the woods yet, it seems.