Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[Lollygag1]

I did a 3 month cruise of AK on a fishing boat where I worked 18hrs a day in summer of 85

[twistedtree]

Originally Posted by backinblue

I suppose a big cruise ship Art? What part of AK? I just returned from a very small boat cruise out of Juneau. Happy to share my experiences and advice if it's relevant to your upcoming trip. Don't feel bad, embrace it and enjoy it!

I'm curious what outfit & trip, and how you liked it. I see all of them when we are out and about, and wonder how they are. We went on a Nat Geo/Lindlbad cruise here with about 30 people 10 or 12 years ago and it got us hooked.

[BruceK]

Here`s a snippet from a financial report:
"Shares of cruise lines dropped after Carnival said it would sell $1 billion of new stock. Carnival fell $1.24, or 11%, to $9.85 and was the biggest laggard on the S&P 500. Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were also among the index's top decliners."
Not sounding positive. They must have lost vast $ income while still carrying expenses. No surprise they are running cruises back to back even with Covid occurring on board.

[Benthic2]

I would think their expenses would be minimal during covid. No fuel if the ships are stationary, no wages other than skeleton crew, reduced insurance since no passengers..... The biggest is probably the debt service on their new ships, but the banks aren't going to want to foreclose so probably very willing to renegotiate.

[tiltrider1]

Originally Posted by BruceK

Here`s a snippet from a financial report:
"Shares of cruise lines dropped after Carnival said it would sell $1 billion of new stock. Carnival fell $1.24, or 11%, to $9.85 and was the biggest laggard on the S&P 500. Royal Caribbean Group and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings were also among the index's top decliners."
Not sounding positive. They must have lost vast $ income while still carrying expenses. No surprise they are running cruises back to back even with Covid occurring on board.

Let’s take a good look at what this really means. Carnival is raising a billion dollars of cash by selling additional stock, why? Is it because they expect to burn through cash to stay alive, or do they see an opportunity to acquire capital assets at fire sale prices? The Market sees a significant number of new share holders that will now be sharing the same old company profits, this means less revenue per share so naturally Market made an adjustment.

What if Carnival acquires several competitors and doubles its revenue? The Market will quickly go up. Stock price fluctuations are so short sighted that you can’t really read anything into them.

I do not like boom or bust investments. I would never invest in a cruise line or an airline for that matter. I can’t understand what people see in cruises, add to that the potential for mass illnesses. Yet, I see people rushing back to go cruising. I don’t think the industry is dead.

The truth is more likely that we here on TF do not understand the mind of the average middle class worker who lives in Kansas City and has never seen the Ocean except for the one time he/she went on a cruise.

[BruceK]

Originally Posted by tiltrider1

Let’s take a good look at what this really means. Carnival is raising a billion dollars of cash by selling additional stock, why? Is it because they expect to burn through cash to stay alive, or do they see an opportunity to acquire capital assets at fire sale prices? The Market sees a significant number of new share holders that will now be sharing the same old company profits, this means less revenue per share so naturally Market made an adjustment. .

Of course. Existing stockholders get diluted by new shares/stock being sold, probably to an institution in this case. A good company doing that would offer stock to existing stockholders at a similar issue price to avoid dilution. Even so,the company has 1Bn. more in capital,or (more likely) 1Bn less debt.

Cruise lines, having lost 2 years of revenue while still incurring expenses, have to be hurting. Qantas, a relatively small airline, says it missed 24Bn of revenue during it`s closedown/limited operation, but its share(= stock here) price only dropped 20%.

[backinblue]

Originally Posted by twistedtree

I'm curious what outfit & trip, and how you liked it. I see all of them when we are out and about, and wonder how they are. We went on a Nat Geo/Lindlbad cruise here with about 30 people 10 or 12 years ago and it got us hooked.

We were with Uncruise.com on the ship Wilderness Legacy. Began and ended in Juneau. Look it up and I will be happy to provide any addtional info anyone has.

[backinblue]

Don't wade too far into the political waters Hippo....

[HTurner]

News stories like these don't help cruise lines:


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...2-million.html

[backinblue]

Sad story, but that could happen anywhere, not sure it specifically hurts cruises.

[slowgoesit]

Originally Posted by backinblue

We were with Uncruise.com on the ship Wilderness Legacy. Began and ended in Juneau. Look it up and I will be happy to provide any addtional info anyone has.

We saw an Uncruise boat/ship in Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay. They looked like a much more appealing way to "cruise ship" cruise.

[backinblue]

Originally Posted by slowgoesit

We saw an Uncruise boat/ship in Johns Hopkins Inlet in Glacier Bay. They looked like a much more appealing way to "cruise ship" cruise.

We were in there a few weeks ago. In fact, they said our boat was probably the first boat allowed to enter when the season officially opened on 7/1. A few big cruise ships came and went that day. They are there about 30 mins for photo ops. We were there all day including some kayaking and hiking on the glacier.

[BruceK]

Financial Report Extract:
"Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings fell nearly 11% after reporting a wider-than-expected quarterly loss. Shares of peer cruise line Carnival Corporation fell 5.4% as pockets of the travel sector struggle to recover from the pandemic"
Not out of the woods yet, it seems.

[BruceK]

Just off "Majestic Princess". One of 800+ pax infected with Covid out of 3250 onboard. 1300 crew, similar infection rate.
Ship immediately reloaded for another cruise. It has to be riddled with Covid.

Lesson learned. We celebrate my partner`s birthday elsewhere from now on.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-11-...tive/101647392


Be assured, we masked diligently, from the moment we boarded, except when drinking or eating. It didn`t save us. Sick and 4 days confined to cabin. There were people trolleyed off on respirators,into ambulances. Service on the ship, food and water, drinks, etc suffered due to crew shortage due to Covid. A real problem when you can`t go out even to get fresh water.

[Insequent]

So despite the down-time from running cruises the ships owners would appear to have learnt nothing and done nothing to remedy their unacceptable reputation as floating virus incubators. They should cover the costs of any passengers requiring mandatory quarantine after disembarking IMO.

[Benthic2]

Originally Posted by Insequent

So despite the down-time from running cruises the ships owners would appear to have learnt nothing and done nothing to remedy their unacceptable reputation as floating virus incubators. They should cover the costs of any passengers requiring mandatory quarantine after disembarking IMO.

What could the Cruise Line do ?? The disease is spread by being in close contact with others. Both parties ( operator and passenger ) know that, and are aparently willing to assume that risk.

[Benthic2]

Originally Posted by tiltrider1

The Market sees a significant number of new share holders that will now be sharing the same old company profits, this means less revenue per share...

Not necessarily. Presumably Princess has a plan to invest that billion dollars in such a way as to generate a return on assets greater than their current ROA. I wouldn't think they would pay down their debt as interest rates have been fairly low so hopefully all the debt is at a favorable rate.

[Insequent]

Originally Posted by Benthic2

What could the Cruise Line do ?? The disease is spread by being in close contact with others. Both parties ( operator and passenger ) know that, and are aparently willing to assume that risk.

Various places, particularly hospitals but many other places can control spread of the virus.

One of the big issues for cruise ships is that crew are packed into their accommodation like sardines. They become major vectors for spread - not their fault. Its the way the ships are designed and operated.

One thing the ships could do is convert a significant amount of passenger accommodation to improved crew facilities. If they don't change and improve there will be more people like BruceK who in effect say I'm very unlikely to cruise again.

It seemed to me that the first waves of covid indicated that management, both on-board and corporate, failed to make passenger welfare a priority. eg loading people for the next cruise without disinfecting the vessel that had just unloaded a bunch of sick people. I may be wrong, but it seems like "bottom line financials" are all that matters.

[Simi 60]

Have been anchored at 'Club Mud" for the last few days watching a steady stream of Covid Class vessels come in.
And in today's news....

Majestic Princess: cruise ship passengers disembark in Sydney after mass Covid outbreak

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...cases-on-board

But, I bet the windows are clean. (-;

[backinblue]

Originally Posted by Insequent

It seemed to me that the first waves of covid indicated that management, both on-board and corporate, failed to make passenger welfare a priority. eg loading people for the next cruise without disinfecting the vessel that had just unloaded a bunch of sick people. I may be wrong, but it seems like "bottom line financials" are all that matters.

I agree financials matter, but not just to the cruise line also to the passengers. My point being that if the ships convert passenger cabins to crew cabins, they would need to raise prices in order to make the same profit. I make the same argument about people who complain about cramped seating on airplanes. People want more comfortable seating and more space, but they also want their $49 ticket from NY to FL. You can have one or the other but not both. Often companies are responding to the market and giving consumers what they are willing to pay for.