Can the Cruise Industry survive ?

[Alaskan Sea-Duction]

Originally Posted by RT Firefly

Greetings,
I don't think this has been mentioned although I'm NOT going to go through all 659 posts to check (apologies if it HAS been mentioned).

This is a solely a first world problem. Other than staff, who are most probably third world, a complete elimination of the cruise industry would really not effect anyone in the greater scheme of things.Similar to how a transition from horse and buggy to automobiles put the livery stables and equine industry out of business.

As Mr. A mentions, cruiser $$ will be spent on other things, staff will find other employment and life will go on.

Sure. A slowdown in the ship building industry but again, not many affected.

Boat sales have been through the roof this last year.

[JLD]

Originally Posted by Alaskan Sea-Duction

Boat sales have been through the roof this last year.

Also, for this year. There are many manufacturers of smaller boats that have completely sold out some models of their 2021 inventories!

Jim

[BruceK]

[Group9]

Originally Posted by CaptTom

My gut tells me the passengers will come roaring back. Just a feeling I get that everyone is "done with" COVID restrictions and there's a huge pent-up demand.

Not saying they're right to feel that way. Just the vibe I'm getting.

How many will survive? The overwhelming majority. Frankly, the occasional fatality on a cruise ship is not a deterrent. Bad things can happen anywhere.

Once the majority are vaccinated, drastic isolation efforts will no longer be required.

Remember, the reason the deniers were wrong about this being "just like the flu" was because it was a novel virus humans hadn't experienced before. We've been dealing with it for over a year. Many people have developed natural immunity and many more are being vaccinated daily. This will recede into the background noise of common illnesses some day.

I think the cruise industry will bounce back. I'm not sure the people who sign up for unlimited buffets and alcohol plans, are really the people who are worried too much about what is killing them.

[JLD]

Originally Posted by Group9

I think the cruise industry will bounce back. I'm not sure the people who sign up for unlimited buffets and alcohol plans, are really the people who are worried too much about what is killing them.

I think a lot of folks are itching to get back to "normal", including cruising.

It will be interesting to see how many Americans actually book cruises for the later half of 2021 and 2022 as the only way I see ships booking passengers is with documentation of vaccinations, like via 'vaccine passports'.

Jim

[BandB]

Originally Posted by JLD

I think a lot of folks are itching to get back to "normal", including cruising.

Wifey B: That word "Normal" annoys me. Was the past normal? Is getting on germ infested boats and sharing with thousands? Was being careless about hand sanitizing and disease spread in general? Was being careless about our exposure normal? Who defines normal?

Now I know what you're saying, but I find it sad to think of us going through all this and learning nothing. I think of the habits learned that could prevent deaths from just our normal influenza and sure hope we've learned enough to not expose the elderly or susceptible to flu germs in the future. I would sure hope the cruise industry doesn't try to return to their prior normal and creates a new one.

[BruceK]

I enjoyed cr about cruising, but even pre Covid I knew it was a health hazard, in terms of flu, gastric maladies, etc. Add Covid to that and I`m more hesitant than Queensland`s Premier and Chief Medical Officer are about immunization.

[JLD]

Originally Posted by BandB

Wifey B: That word "Normal" annoys me. Was the past normal? Is getting on germ infested boats and sharing with thousands? Was being careless about hand sanitizing and disease spread in general? Was being careless about our exposure normal? Who defines normal?

Now I know what you're saying, but I find it sad to think of us going through all this and learning nothing. I think of the habits learned that could prevent deaths from just our normal influenza and sure hope we've learned enough to not expose the elderly or susceptible to flu germs in the future. I would sure hope the cruise industry doesn't try to return to their prior normal and creates a new one.

Honestly, I don't see how many cruise lines don't go back to the 'old' normal, at least when it comes to the number of passengers. Quite a few of the newer ships were constructed to accommodate 5,000 - 6,500 passengers plus crew. While I don't know much about the specifics of the industry, I would have to think they only make money when there are a lot of passengers aboard.

Fortunately, for anyone who wants to cruise with less people, there are smaller ships also available. If we go cruising it likely will be on Viking, as their ships typically have less than 1,000 passengers.

Jim

[BandB]

Originally Posted by JLD

Honestly, I don't see how many cruise lines don't go back to the 'old' normal, at least when it comes to the number of passengers. Quite a few of the newer ships were constructed to accommodate 5,000 - 6,500 passengers plus crew. While I don't know much about the specifics of the industry, I would have to think they only make money when there are a lot of passengers aboard.

Fortunately, for anyone who wants to cruise with less people, there are smaller ships also available. If we go cruising it likely will be on Viking, as their ships typically have less than 1,000 passengers.

Jim

Could and would are such different things. They could stress sanitary conditions more and they could do things like require proof of vaccination or at least tests. They could do like many countries are doing. They could require masks.

Unfortunately, I have zero faith in what they will do. I don't think they'll do anything they aren't forced to do. They will dodge as many laws and taxes as possible and look for handouts and that's simply how they operate.

[Group9]

On the other hand, I imagine it's going to be hard for a lot of people to forget the images of those people stuck out on cruise ships with dead and dying people, and no country willing to let them dock.

[psneeld]

Self admitted germophobes commenting on sanitary conditions?

What is normal to one doesnt have to apply to everyone.

Lots of crowded ships go to sea...are they stopping?

Anyone that actually has followed the science an not the CDC or news knows that behavior is the answer not the activity.

[firehoser75]

"Anyone that actually has followed the science an not the CDC or news knows that behavior is the answer not the activity."
???

[BruceK]

Originally Posted by Group9

On the other hand, I imagine it's going to be hard for a lot of people to forget the images of those people stuck out on cruise ships with dead and dying people, and no country willing to let them dock.

Mmmm.. we docked and disembarked Ruby Princess in Sydney. A disaster, hundreds of people who turned out infected who infected others, deaths, etc. A major stuff up by our Authorities, partly caused by some "inaccuracies" from the ship. Litigation on foot. In hindsight, had we left everyone onboard it could have been even worse.
Knowing the ship was filled with crew who were sick, becoming sick, and at risk,we docked Ruby Princess at a freight port south of Sydney, under quarantine conditions, for about 6 weeks. We treated the sick,in hospitals ashore when required, and generally supported the ship until it was safe to leave, which we forcefully indicated. The ship displayed a huge "Thank You" placard and illuminated cabin lights to spell it out as well. I know we did something good for the crew.
I enjoyed cruising, my partner is Filipino, we get very well looked after by mostly Filipino crew, but it will take a lot to get me back on one.

[soin2la]

Originally Posted by BandB

Could and would are such different things. They could stress sanitary conditions more and they could do things like require proof of vaccination or at least tests. They could do like many countries are doing. They could require masks.

Unfortunately, I have zero faith in what they will do. I don't think they'll do anything they aren't forced to do. They will dodge as many laws and taxes as possible and look for handouts and that's simply how they operate.

The first North American cruise since 2020 tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. All crew and adult passengers on board the Celebrity Millennium had to show proof that they were fully vaccinated as well as provide a negative COVID-19 test prior to or at the time of boarding.

Perhaps Canada has it right keeping its ports closed to cruise ships!

https://abcnews.go.com/US/passengers...ry?id=78210113

[cks]

We love to cruise. I will book my next cruise after 10,000,000,000 passengers have travelled on cruise lines w/o a single COVID-19 case. I guess the clock was reset this week.��

[Frosty]

Originally Posted by soin2la

The first North American cruise since 2020 tested positive for COVID-19 on Thursday. All crew and adult passengers on board the Celebrity Millennium had to show proof that they were fully vaccinated as well as provide a negative COVID-19 test prior to or at the time of boarding.

I just read an article about this that said there WERE some children aboard who were not vaccinated. That seems a bit nuts.

Two Test Positive for Covid-19 on 100% Vaccinated Celebrity Millennium

[BandB]

Originally Posted by Frosty

I just read an article about this that said there WERE some children aboard who were not vaccinated. That seems a bit nuts.

Two Test Positive for Covid-19 on 100% Vaccinated Celebrity Millennium

Let's say for a moment there were 1400 people aboard. I read 95% vaccinated and that may have reflected the adults. So let's say 1330 vaccinated. Now let's say then that the average vaccination is 90% effective. That means very few Johnson and Johnson to bring it down. So if two are detected with Covid 19, then that's an exposure of another 133 people and a total of 200 potential. Whether 20 or 50 or 100 or 200 end up getting it, sounds like a problem for the industry to me. Maybe it will end up being confined to the two persons. If so, a great success story. But the results won't be known until well after everyone leaves the ship.

[soin2la]

Originally Posted by BandB;

That means very few Johnson and Johnson to bring it down. So if two are detected with Covid 19, then that's an exposure of another 133 people and a total of 200 potential.

Sorry BandB, I can figure those two bold bits, especially the 133-200 math.
Help me out please.

[JLD]

It sounds like a pretty successful cruise given the factors involved.

My wife and I would never, even in the best of times, cruise on another ship with 4 - 6,000 people. With retirement pending in the next year or so, we are still looking at another two years until a possible cruise. And it would be on a smaller ship of less than 1,000 passengers.

I'm curious to see what happens in Florida with cruises in the upcoming year. Seems to me the Governor's plan to prohibit cruise lines from having passengers prove they are vaccinated is a huge potential problem for the industry. Having unvaccinated passengers on a cruise ship seems like a concern for cruise line employees as well as something that would undermine confidence of vaccinated passengers.

Jim

[BandB]

Originally Posted by soin2la

Sorry BandB, I can figure those two bold bits, especially the 133-200 math.
Help me out please.

95% vaccinated means 70 are not. 10% ineffective rate on 1330 means another 133 are not protected so a total on board of 200 not protected by vaccination.