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Old 06-18-2022, 05:07 PM   #141
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Household savings???
people actually have money left over at the end of the month.
Somebody is not having a good time everyday.
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Old 06-18-2022, 08:46 PM   #142
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Originally Posted by Judy at JWY View Post
....I am most appreciative that what I see on TF accurately portrays those characteristics. As another aside, I only read or post on two forums with TF being one of them. This is a gentlemanly crowd and I have always appreciated the consideration of the posts.
Thanks for those kind words, Judy, on behalf of the mod team. We try hard to keep the tone as high as possible on here...
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Old 06-19-2022, 05:56 AM   #143
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Greetings,
"...the tone as high as possible on here..." Yep.


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Old 06-19-2022, 05:44 PM   #144
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IMO, trawlers and other live aboard cruisers are in a different camp from most go fast day boats because, if set up properly, you can live aboard in the comfort and convenience of home while afloat and safe from many of the current day land-based disturbances, crime and strife.

The independence, self-sufficiency, mobility and comfort of functional trawlers make them more akin to RVs on the water than water toys. It's a home, a lifestyle and an escape...all wrapped up into one nice package...an ark.

For that reason, I would expect demand and prices of functional trawlers to remain high in the coming years as our land-based world strife factor skyrockets!

Every day I thank the Good Lord that he gave me an ark!! I have a feeling this ark is going to come in handy for many of us as the future unfolds.

YMMV!
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Old 06-20-2022, 05:23 AM   #145
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These discussions are interesting. No one knows the future of course, and as the market demonstrated during the pandemic we can be wrong. And that the Fed’s actions are often determinative. Everyone’s situation is different and everyone’s risk profile and everyone’s view of their future health is different, so we just need to make the best determination for ourselves.
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Old 06-20-2022, 08:37 AM   #146
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I don't agree that you can't predict the future, at least directionally. Sure, there's a tendency to use past events to understand future, and sometimes the current events are so unique that they defy easy understanding. Right now, there is a lot of emphasis on the Fed being late (1) to raising interest rates; and (2) reducing balance sheet/treasury purchases. But both of these policies have been in place since 2010 with no ill effect, so what happened to catapult interest rates? There's a growing body of economists who point to dumping $5-trillion in pandemic relief into the economy, much of it was indiscriminate and went to everyone whether or not they were affected. The US GDP is roughly $21T in 2019, and Consumer Spending is 70%. $5T is a huge input and fueled a tremendous amount of demand (ergo the boat/RV market). If this theory is dominant, then what Jamie Dimon (JPMC Bank) said the other week is important: based on bank deposits, he sees about another 6-months of savings in the average consumer bank account. What happens then? He mentioned a "hurricane" afterward that has really roiled market watchers. Time to hunker-down and keep your powder dry as the sayings go.

How does this effect the boat market in the $250k-$1m range of many on this forum? Sure, the buyer in this range has a warchest and may be less affected. But these are also the folks who benefited most from the lospided effects of the Pandemic economy - they didn't lose their jobs, their job prospects exploded due to work-from-home opportunities and market forces, they received a chunk of the $5T relief that they didn't need, their house value shot-up, and their cost of living went down a LOT because they stayed at home. So while this segment may be technically able to endure economic hardship, they will likely perceive a startling change in their economic future. In short, this very segement may be Exhbit #1 of Wealth Effect spend-reductions.

Broadly, there are three scenarios. #1 - short supply means prices keep rising at above-average rates. #2 prices stabilize/plateau as supply/demand equilibrate. #3 prices drop due to reduction in demand and increase in supply (both driven by Wealth Effect reaction). I suppose #1 and #2 are possible. But unless something changes in the economy, over the next 12 months or so, I'd put good money on #3.

Time will tell. But I don't think it's serendipidy.

Peter
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Old 06-20-2022, 10:11 AM   #147
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I had to laugh. Last night I wandered into a forum focused on fishing and go-fast big fishing boats. In a discussion of how fuel prices were impacting plans for the annual trip to the Bahamas for a few weeks to fish, what sparked was the DISCOVERY of how much more economical it was to throttle back to a more modest cruising speed. Offset by the angst of not sticking with the habit of running constantly with the throttle down.
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Old 06-20-2022, 10:12 AM   #148
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Generally speaking, I take all projections with a grain of salt and maybe less.
For example: I have been following one well known stock and in order to fulfill its projected price it would have to gain over $30/share. I dont see any of the experts says, "If I am wrong, I will buy your shares at today's projected price." These experts will quietly lower their projected highs.

Anyone can be an expert and for this message, I declare that I am an expert and make the following projections.

Fuel prices may come down a bit but I doubt if we will ever see it at $3.00 or less, ever again.
We may see engine hp decrease and maybe even fuel tanks sizes decrease on 'day-boats' and perhaps coastal cruiser so the builders can add more bells and whistles.

Things will never return to the 90s prices.
Boat prices unfortunately continue to rise until the availability gets close to demand.
We may see some builders go belly up because they are over extended, prices for raw materials increase, orders cancelled. They are building boat without having generator to put in them.

Parts prices may remain high or parts become scarce as people work to extend the life of the boat they own.

Okay, I am finished with my "expert opinions and projections." If I am correct, then, 'you heard it here first.' If I am wrong, people will be so happy, they will forget what I said.
I could be totally wrong but, I dont think so.

Anyone want to buy my "expert hat"?
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Old 06-20-2022, 10:18 AM   #149
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In agreeing with much said here, I'd put the cyclical piece this way:

In the recent conditions of cheap fuel, speed was cheaper and faster boats saw more relative demand.

In an era of more expensive fuel, slower and more fuel efficient boats may well see more relative demand.
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Old 06-20-2022, 07:28 PM   #150
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post
I don't agree that you can't predict the future, at least directionally.

Broadly, there are three scenarios. #1 - short supply means prices keep rising at above-average rates. #2 prices stabilize/plateau as supply/demand equilibrate. #3 prices drop due to reduction in demand and increase in supply (both driven by Wealth Effect reaction). I suppose #1 and #2 are possible. But unless something changes in the economy, over the next 12 months or so, I'd put good money on #3.

Time will tell. But I don't think it's serendipidy.

Peter
FWIW, I completely agree with you. It is possible to 'predict' the future. It's just very hard to to it with any kind of accuracy, and very easy to get it wrong. The broader the brush, the easier it is to paint a picture of the 'future.'

As you described, the macroeconomic fundamentals all point to global economic slowdown over the next 12 months. While 'anything can happen', I think betting on your scenario #3 would be a good bet.

One easy prediction about the future, at almost any time, is that economic forces move in cycles.

Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDan1943 View Post

Anyone can be an expert and for this message, I declare that I am an expert and make the following projections.

Fuel prices may come down a bit but I doubt if we will ever see it at $3.00 or less, ever again.

Things will never return to the 90s prices.
Again FWIW, I think you're spot-on with your prediction of fuel prices. It seems as long as Putin is alive there will be hostilities in Ukraine and the West will boycott Russian oil (to some degree), which will limit supply and keep prices high.

Even after supply is no longer a major limiting factor (at some point in the not-near future), the simple reality of capitalism is that oil companies have little incentive to decrease prices out of the kindness of their hearts. Once it's been demonstrated that demand is relatively inflexible, that people may whine and complain but largely continue to buy gas at $5/gal, there is little incentive for companies to lower the price.

The oil companies are making record profits right now, and their shares are way up despite a down and declining stock market. It's codified into law in this country that every corporation's highest priority is to 'maximize shareholder value', which they can do with high prices.

Unless a situation were to develop where the world is somehow glutted with oil and at the same time demand falls off a cliff (which would probably take not just a recession but a depression), I think you're right that we've seen the last of $3/gal fuel.
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Old Yesterday, 11:05 PM   #151
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This might interest. Carsales Co in Australia is buying the remaining 51% it doesn`t own of US company Trader Interactive which operates as a truck and RV online sales site.
Why interesting? It also operates the well established major Australian online boat sales site, "Boatsales". A reasonably aggressive growth business,would not be a surprise if it sought to expand fields once it digests the takeover.
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Old Yesterday, 11:19 PM   #152
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This might interest. Carsales Co in Australia is buying the remaining 51% it doesn`t own of US company Trader Interactive which operates as a truck and RV online sales site.
Why interesting? It also operates the well established major Australian online boat sales site, "Boatsales". A reasonably aggressive growth business,would not be a surprise if it sought to expand fields once it digests the takeover.
Trader Interactive already owns Boatline.com so in the boat business. I'm amazed that patent and registration suits aren't tossed back and forth between Trader and Auto Trader and Boat Trader. Could be interesting.
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Old Yesterday, 11:29 PM   #153
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Trader Interactive already owns Boatline.com so in the boat business. I'm amazed that patent and registration suits aren't tossed back and forth between Trader and Auto Trader and Boat Trader. Could be interesting.
The report here didn`t mention the target was already in the boating site field, which might have been the main attraction. Australian coys buying overseas businesses sometimes buy things the locals won`t, and get burnt in the process. Not this time I hope.
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