Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 05-12-2022, 01:56 PM   #21
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 25,400
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT View Post
Yeah, you know that's one of those things where you can see what you see, and I can see what I see. You can accurately summarize what you see, and I can do the same. But our worlds are both limited in scope and view, so it would be no shock that neither one is representative. Still, we see what we see and its real to us.

My family, my friends, my barber, and the people who stop me on the street or in the grocery store to chat are pretty tired. On the other hand, if all of us were waking up each morning and taking our first cup of coffee in the cockpit and looking out over God's great wonders I have to think we'd have a different view of the world. At least I hope so, because that's what I'm busting my hump to work toward.
True.... I wasnt out west, but in tbe last 2 years I have travelled by RV from Florida to Maine to Texas multiple times, multiple months per trip. Talked to friends, family, businesses and total strangers.

Not what I would call limited and certainly over a varied set of COVID infection rates.

Both family and friends were infected and none seem to be "tired"...all taking their normal vacations, visits, recreation....etc.

Guess it depends on how people react to things....glad my world didnt seem as dismal as many would have me think it is.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 03:38 PM   #22
Guru
 
City: West coast
Join Date: Aug 2021
Posts: 722
Here’s my basic and probably naive thoughts:

We are in all probability heading into a recession created by increasing interest rates.

With wealth loss from stock portfolios combined with increasing costs from inflation, I would suspect that boat sales will decline.

New boats will cost more. If someone finances, interest rates will make it cost more. Fuel costs continue to increase.

So demand for new boats decline. Used boat prices get supported by higher new boat prices but still will be under pressure as fewer can afford the discretionary luxury expenses of boating.
bowball is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 03:43 PM   #23
Member
 
City: Tavernier
Vessel Name: Poerava
Join Date: Apr 2021
Posts: 11
I helped sell a friends boat for 100k more then they paid for It a year ago with minimal changes, less then half as many companies are building boats as there were 40 years ago yet Twice as many people/ families want to go cruising, boat prices will most likely continue to go up. Side note, The government has printed 80% of the currency in circulation in the last 3 years,,, yet they say the gdp is up???
RyanK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 06:05 PM   #24
FWT
Guru
 
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
True.... I wasnt out west, but in tbe last 2 years I have travelled by RV from Florida to Maine to Texas multiple times, multiple months per trip. Talked to friends, family, businesses and total strangers.

Not what I would call limited and certainly over a varied set of COVID infection rates.

Both family and friends were infected and none seem to be "tired"...all taking their normal vacations, visits, recreation....etc.

Guess it depends on how people react to things....glad my world didnt seem as dismal as many would have me think it is.
Wow. You have cast your net more broadly than me. I tip my hat to that.

I will just throw out a fact. Not opinion. Fact. Bank industry deposits have soared. It began with covid in 2020 but continues today. When people get scared they hoard cash. Covid got them scared, but that's past. But that cash hoard is still high.

Second weird fact. Bank deposits are huge. So huge that someone I know had Bank of America refuse to take for deposit a check from a real estate settlement, telling them they had max deposit limit of $85,000 per month. They switched banks.

Third weird fact. Credit card debt is soaring.

The facts suggest some are hoarding cash. Others can't make ends meet without tapping credit.
FWT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 06:21 PM   #25
FWT
Guru
 
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by bowball View Post
Here’s my basic and probably naive thoughts:

We are in all probability heading into a recession created by increasing interest rates.

With wealth loss from stock portfolios combined with increasing costs from inflation, I would suspect that boat sales will decline.

New boats will cost more. If someone finances, interest rates will make it cost more. Fuel costs continue to increase.

So demand for new boats decline. Used boat prices get supported by higher new boat prices but still will be under pressure as fewer can afford the discretionary luxury expenses of boating.
Not naive. Not at all. Its never different this time. What is different every time is the details and circumstances. Last time it was real estate at the root. It would be a first if it were real estate again this time, at the root. (Not trying to say it won't be impacted)

Its a very old story. Things get overheated. Fed hikes rates. They keep hiking until things break. Then they break. Then they cut rates until things stabilize and begin to heat up again. Its that simple. It only gets more complicated when you begin to look at what got overheated, what broke badly and why, and so forth. Which is useful to try to gauge where things are in the cycle and whether the turn at the top and bottom are near at hand.

And yeah, anyone with investments is down. Anyone. Everyone. Obviously stocks. But if one were in bonds, down probably worse (in terms of market value). Down enough to halt boating plans? Way too personal a decision, person by person, and way too hard to generalize, at least for me.

Because, here's a weird bit of history.

The ocean resort town in MD is Ocean City. Coming into 2000 there had not been a new condo built there in probably 20 years. The stock market had boomed, but not OC real estate. AFTER the market crashed, real estate just flat exploded upward. Values soared. New condo went up right and left. The realtors explained it: the typical buyers were in a time of life where the last kid tuition bill had been paid, and they got liquid selling stocks and employee stock options. Mom and Dad looked at each other and said, its now OUR TURN to ENJOY LIFE. It was a demographics thing, and a trend that defied stock market direction.

Go figure. Too hard to predict what a herd of people will do.
FWT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 06:24 PM   #26
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 25,400
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT View Post
Wow. You have cast your net more broadly than me. I tip my hat to that.

I will just throw out a fact. Not opinion. Fact. Bank industry deposits have soared. It began with covid in 2020 but continues today. When people get scared they hoard cash. Covid got them scared, but that's past. But that cash hoard is still high.

Second weird fact. Bank deposits are huge. So huge that someone I know had Bank of America refuse to take for deposit a check from a real estate settlement, telling them they had max deposit limit of $85,000 per month. They switched banks.

Third weird fact. Credit card debt is soaring.

The facts suggest some are hoarding cash. Others can't make ends meet without tapping credit.
Not sure what you mean by casting a net.... I am a traveller by nature and between careers and personal motives....have always looked over the horizon. I also always try to limit my "stances" to be based on actual experience of things much more than in a haphazard or casual manner.

Similar to the downer post...I don't find any of that weird but to be expected with what is going on...

Well, the $85,000 bank limit is sorta weird....but a lot of banking laws started getting weird in the 1990's in my experience.

Most things in life become explainable when a few key facts/issues surface. Sit back and watch the Monday morning quarterbacks emerge as each phase of these "new" but really previously experienced happenings fade into the past.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 06:31 PM   #27
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 21,302
My observation is that most people are still living in denial. Like TV ratings, they may say one thing on a survey, but their real actions are otherwise. It's not average individuals selling their stocks, but huge institutional investors. Home selling, boat selling, may be down slightly but still well above 2019 levels. Prices definitely haven't dropped. I do believe the longer the denial, the harder it is ultimately going to hit. I just don't know when or how. Today people are still buying at record levels.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 06:44 PM   #28
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 25,400
Times have changed.

My kids AND my older sister have said screw it.... we are spending right up to what we can. Savings and retirement accounts are afterthoughts.

Sounds a lot like what I have been reading. I guess with all the programs to wipe out debt eliminates a lot of fear in way more people than I think it should.

Me, survival schools taught me a lot. I am a saver and frugal, but could care less about the current turmoil as surviving is thiving on it, not letting it beat you.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 06:46 PM   #29
Guru
 
mvweebles's Avatar
 
City: Saint Petersburg
Vessel Name: Weebles
Vessel Model: 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 3,717
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT View Post

Go figure. Too hard to predict what a herd of people will do.
Sometimes its hard, but not always. Sure, experts got it wrong at the beginning of the Pandemic, but within a month or so, trends were figured out and we were off and running for close to 2-years.

But you can't defy the laws of supply/demand forever. In the opening post, I described a half dozen headwinds that threaten financial friction to stiffle demand. Supply side will take some time as sellers tend to be slow in accepting this type of change.

Maybe there are a few brokers reading this thread who might chime-in? Any changes in buyer interest? Does YW track search activity in the background? Some sort of Days-on-Market data?

Peter
__________________
M/V Weebles
1970 Willard 36 Sedan Trawler
mvweebles is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 07:04 PM   #30
FWT
Guru
 
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by psneeld View Post

Sounds a lot like what I have been reading. I guess with all the programs to wipe out debt eliminates a lot of fear in way more people than I think it should.

.
Joke of the day: "My home mortgage self-identifies as student debt."
FWT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 07:06 PM   #31
FWT
Guru
 
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 831
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post
Sometimes its hard, but not always. Sure, experts got it wrong at the beginning of the Pandemic, but within a month or so, trends were figured out and we were off and running for close to 2-years.



Peter
My point, lost in my rambling, is bank deposits soared when covid struck. But you are absolutely right, that's now behind us. But some sort of fear is keeping those deposits and hoarding behavior high. We can all make our own guesses on what that might be.
FWT is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 07:14 PM   #32
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 25,400
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT View Post
My point, lost in my rambling, is bank deposits soared when covid struck. But you are absolutely right, that's now behind us. But some sort of fear is keeping those deposits and hoarding behavior high. We can all make our own guesses on what that might be.
It may not be fear, could be anything from savvy money management to getting ready to by real things versus stocks as Warren Buffet said a few days ago.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 07:33 PM   #33
Guru
 
KnotYet's Avatar
 
City: Los Angeles
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 762
Quote:
Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
edit
Sounds a lot like what I have been reading. I guess with all the programs to wipe out debt eliminates a lot of fear in way more people than I think it should.
edit
Are there programs other than the not-enacted one for student loan debt?

Enquiring minds want to know.
__________________
Science doesn't care what you believe. -Neil deGrasse Tyson
KnotYet is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 07:48 PM   #34
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 25,400
When I said programs, maybe I should have used "ways" such as the credit debt legal action business......
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-12-2022, 07:54 PM   #35
Guru
 
tiltrider1's Avatar
 
City: Seattle
Vessel Name: AZZURRA
Vessel Model: Ocean Alexander 54
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 3,052
BandB is right. There is a lot of denial going on. Buyers for everything are starting to drop out but it’s at the low end of the scale. An entry level house that used to sell in a bidding war the day it was listed is now taking 3 days to find a buyer. This is a small change but it is a change. Real estate brokers are finding the bottom 10% dropping out because they don’t qualify anymore but there are still plenty of buyers. This reminds me of the last recession. Every one says it hit in 2009. No, it hit in 2008 but it wasn’t until 2009 that people ran out of money and dumped assets.

Now, I am seeing some similar issues but nothing like 2009. Personal debt is way down and many people tripled their net worth over the last 10 years. When prices go down I expect it will be quick and I expect they will bounce back quick. Leaving little time to game the market.

I have always been very good at seeing when the market is overheated or when it has fallen too far. I am not very good at telling you when the rest of the world will see it and react.

In the end I say stick to your long range plan. If it’s time to buy a boat and you can afford it then do it. If you try to sell a boat or buy a boat to game the market you will probably loose.
tiltrider1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 05:57 AM   #36
Guru
 
mvweebles's Avatar
 
City: Saint Petersburg
Vessel Name: Weebles
Vessel Model: 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 3,717
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT View Post
My point, lost in my rambling, is bank deposits soared when covid struck. But you are absolutely right, that's now behind us. But some sort of fear is keeping those deposits and hoarding behavior high. We can all make our own guesses on what that might be.
Of course bank/saving accounts soared. In the end, about $5-trillion in stimulus payments was pumped into the US economy. A lot of it was saved and funded moves and quitting jobs. A lot of it went to Amazon purchases.

Given the one-time events that uniquely effected demand for stay-cation boats/RVs are now behind us, and there are economic headwinds that, if laws of supply/demand hold true, will dampen demand going forward, hard to imagine a scenario where a strong sellers market persists past about 6-months, the amount of time to declutter the market of current sellers/buyers conditioned to the past 2 years or so.

Time will tell. If I were a buyer, I'd be much more patient and selective. That said, if I were a buyer, RT Firefly's Cheoy Lee 46 would have been under contract a week ago at $130k. Strikes me as a solid deal in any market (I have zero connection to RTF or the boat)

Peter
__________________
M/V Weebles
1970 Willard 36 Sedan Trawler
mvweebles is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 05-13-2022, 11:16 PM   #37
Guru
 
BruceK's Avatar
 
City: Sydney
Vessel Name: Sojourn
Vessel Model: Integrity 386
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 12,223
Pretty sure boat prices here have peaked. Much like real estate. People will be cutting back to be sure they can service mortgages as rates rise. Such a blunt instrument. In our last recession,housing loan rates hit 17%, now people whine at the possibility of 5-7%.

Lots of people are cashed up after the last 2-3 years, you couldn`t spend it. We`d have had 3 trips to Europe if it was safe and possible, that money has to be sitting somewhere.
__________________
BruceK
2005 Integrity 386 "Sojourn"
Sydney Australia
BruceK is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-14-2022, 10:51 AM   #38
Senior Member
 
trihartsfield's Avatar
 
City: Sheridan
Vessel Name: Ethos of the T
Vessel Model: 26 Sedan Tollycraft
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 127
Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT View Post
Joke of the day: "My home mortgage self-identifies as student debt."
OMG, now that is funny!
trihartsfield is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2022, 10:32 AM   #39
Grand Vizier
 
Delfin's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 3,501
Quote:
Originally Posted by tiltrider1 View Post
Personal debt is way down and many people tripled their net worth over the last 10 years.
Not so much.....

https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_total_debt
Delfin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 05-15-2022, 11:01 AM   #40
Guru
 
hmason's Avatar
 
City: Stuart FL
Vessel Name: Lucky Lucky
Vessel Model: Pacific Mariner 65
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 2,504
Thread drift.

Student debt is a major issue. My daughter came out of college with no debt whatsoever. She then decided to go to medical school and is now a practicing pediatrician. She did it all on student loans. She never spent the money on anything other than medical school expenses. She loves her work but hates her $400K debt. There is a growing shortage of doctors. I wonder why.
__________________
Howard
Lucky Lucky
Stuart, FL
hmason is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


» Trawler Port Captains
Port Captains are TF volunteers who can serve as local guides or assist with local arrangements and information. Search below to locate Port Captains near your destination. To learn more about this program read here: TF Port Captain Program





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 11:07 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2022, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2006 - 2012