Are we at critical mass?

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swampu

swampu

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Just pondering the thought of critical mass in humanity. Are we there? Im not talking about mass starvation and global illnesses I'm talking about 1st world critical mass. Were I live there are zero water front lots for sale, they have all been bought. In my work place (bulkheads/piers) its very hard to obtain material for regular jobs and almost impossible for large jobs. When I go eat, last night for example the resturants are so busy they don't answer the phone and when they do its 40 minutes for take out, there is an hour 1/2 wait for a table.
I see Texas in chaos (no power, food or water) because of a winter storm.
New SUV's are north of 70k and you can't find one for sale,
I think the next bubble is going to be upper-middle middle class people! Not sure what the bubble will do but the zero interest rate policy has driven an entire class of folks, myself included, into a area of spending ability they shouldn't have.
Just some observations
 
The #1 thing about excess is that its excessive.

Big swings don't last forever.

$40 oil was too low, and its now back above $60. Rates were too low and there have already been big moves up in the 5 and 10 year treasury rates. Political mood swings swing too far and then swing back. None of the moves up or down in things are smooth and easy, always with repercussions.

Boat sales moves back and forth between an easy buyers market to easy sellers market.

Its a lot like the weather, only slower moving. If you don't like it, just wait and it will change. If you do like it, enjoy it while it lasts. Neither lasts forever.
 
I think we are really close, not to what I'd call critical mass but a tipping point. I think the pandemic just accelerated it, used as an excuse for just about anything and everything. I feel like we're suddenly living in a third world country, or like the Soviet Union in the 70's and 80's, before it fell. When I was a kid we used to make fun and crack jokes about the Soviet Union's empty shelves and getting government permission for minor domestic travel. Power grids are failing, water systems are failing, I can't get a dental appointment for three months. Chronic and sometimes very odd supply shortages in stores every week, you can't get a contractor for anything, wild price fluctuations in mundane, routine things (since when are basic 16" x 20" furnace filters $19 each??). Kids out of (real) school for months, or perhaps years in some places. The mail may or may not get delivered if the weather is bad, and USPS just shrugs. Stores, services and retail may or may not be open during posted hours. And then you add social media and how it profoundly distorts reality and accelerates collective insanity and triviality and conflict, and then you add multiple cities taken hostage in utter chaos and disorder for weeks or months, and even in DC now (although look at the result there, they've encircled the whole complex with a wall or fence, just like the Kremlin). We had a gun show here in Sioux Falls a couple weeks ago. Of course we're a deep 2nd Amendment/ constitutional carry state anyway, but literally thousands of people showed up from adjoining states and prices were sky high for a BB gun. Yes, I know, the 1960's were a mess too, etc., but these times don't feel normal.

As for the actual tipping point though, I think that will occur when the government's staggering, astronomically huge giveaways of fake/borrowed money finally reach the point to trigger hyperinflation, then we go off a cliff. I don't know when that will occur though. I'm very surprised it hasn't happened already. Apparently the bedrock is a lot stronger than I thought before that starts to crumble too.

Boy, this is a cheery post, isn't it? Here in South Dakota I feel like we still live on an island, life is still generally normal and open here, but the chaos is closing in.
 
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Unfortunately I agree kthoennes. I hope I am wrong, but I fear we may need to "buckle up" for a wild ride!
 
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swampu said:
Just pondering the thought of critical mass in humanity. Are we there? Im not talking about mass starvation and global illnesses I'm talking about 1st world critical mass. Were I live there are zero water front lots for sale, they have all been bought. In my work place (bulkheads/piers) its very hard to obtain material for regular jobs and almost impossible for large jobs. When I go eat, last night for example the resturants are so busy they don't answer the phone and when they do its 40 minutes for take out, there is an hour 1/2 wait for a table.
I see Texas in chaos (no power, food or water) because of a winter storm.
New SUV's are north of 70k and you can't find one for sale,
I think the next bubble is going to be upper-middle middle class people! Not sure what the bubble will do but the zero interest rate policy has driven an entire class of folks, myself included, into a area of spending ability they shouldn't have.
Just some observations
Click to expand...

A few months back I brought up some of this when " overpopulation" was brought up and I used some of this in my definition and was all but laughed out of the thread.

Good luck.....
 
The sky is falling, again. Take a ride to Paw Paw, West Virginia and tell if you think we are nearly doomed.
 
Not falling but someone has different ideas of what they prefer.
 
kthoennes said:
I think we are really close, not to what I'd call critical mass but a tipping point. I think the pandemic just accelerated it, used as an excuse for just about anything and everything. I feel like we're suddenly living in a third world country, or like the Soviet Union in the 70's and 80's, before it fell. When I was a kid we used to make fun and crack jokes about the Soviet Union's empty shelves and getting government permission for minor domestic travel. Power grids are failing, water systems are failing, I can't get a dental appointment for three months. Chronic and sometimes very odd supply shortages in stores every week, you can't get a contractor for anything, wild price fluctuations in mundane, routine things (since when are basic 16" x 20" furnace filters $19 each??). Kids out of (real) school for months, or perhaps years in some places. The mail may or may not get delivered if the weather is bad, and USPS just shrugs. Stores, services and retail may or may not be open during posted hours. And then you add social media and how it profoundly distorts reality and accelerates collective insanity and triviality and conflict, and then you add multiple cities taken hostage in utter chaos and disorder for weeks or months, and even in DC now (although look at the result there, they've encircled the whole complex with a wall or fence, just like the Kremlin). We had a gun show here in Sioux Falls a couple weeks ago. Of course we're a deep 2nd Amendment/ constitutional carry state anyway, but literally thousands of people showed up from adjoining states and prices were sky high for a BB gun. Yes, I know, the 1960's were a mess too, etc., but these times don't feel normal.

As for the actual tipping point though, I think that will occur when the government's staggering, astronomically huge giveaways of fake/borrowed money finally reach the point to trigger hyperinflation, then we go off a cliff. I don't know when that will occur though. I'm very surprised it hasn't happened already. Apparently the bedrock is a lot stronger than I thought before that starts to crumble too.

Boy, this is a cheery post, isn't it? Here in South Dakota I feel like we still live on an island, life is still generally normal and open here, but the chaos is closing in.
Click to expand...
Being of retirement age I have some concerns myself, but a quick peek on Amazon
shows a 4-pack of your filters for under $20.
So I have to ask who is distorting reality? I live (almost) in one of the largest cities
in the country and product shelves are as packed as ever.
Maybe you're seeing a local issue and thinking it's like that everywhere?

Since you brought it up, do you think there is a connection between gun culture and
the attack on the capitol resulting in the miles of crowd control fencing?
 
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Neither the states nor the world is at any ...critical mass, or overpopulated.
Anybody know what the guys who know the most about demographics say about it?
 
Wifey B: Two subjects here. One is the USA and one is the world, which could be broken into many other subjects, but I'll just discuss as two.

Both are plagued by our failure to look out for others and for the future of our country and the world. Is it fueled most by greed or fear or a combination. The inequities continue to get worse. Just look at the impact of the pandemic. If you want to consider yourself the best, then you look out for all your people. You take care of those without adequate education, short of food, lacking healthcare. You look after the children and the elderly. You treat all people equally. We need to wake up and truly love our fellow man. We're not true to what this country claims to be about. Then we should be among those leading the world toward better conditions.

The solutions are not simple. Certainly cutting down on the rates of reproduction would help in many ways. Shortening life expectancy would do the same but I don't think that's a solution many of us want. We just need to figure out how to support a growing population. We can help those needing help while at the same time turning them into contributors. There are unused resources everywhere.

We all have to care and we need leadership to help turn our caring into real impactful action. We need to stop our isolationist thinking and I'm not just referring to only thinking of our country, but only thinking of our state or city or people most like us. There are so many people hurting so badly and none of us, individually, can change that, we can just help one at a time. But our country, if it wants to be considered great, must do that. Otherwise all the flag waving means nothing. It's time to stand up. The United Nations needs to step up as well and be held accountable. I look at what the Gates Foundation has and continues to do. Certainly no one will agree with all the propose or try. However, their real accomplishment is the kind of things nations should be doing. That includes all nations too, both friends and enemies. We should rise on our own and then we can rightfully apply pressure to others.

It's not going to be the total number of people that swamp us. It's going to be those we're not taking care of, those we've cast aside, those fighting to survive. I'm an educator by nature and it's the undereducated, undertrained who pull us down and it's our fault collectively they're like that. We didn't care enough. In sports, it's often said that a team is only as strong as it's weakest players. Not always true. But I think as a nation and as a society we're only as strong as the weakest among us. We need to raise them up. :)
 
BandB said:
Wifey B: Two subjects here. One is the USA and one is the world, which could be broken into many other subjects, but I'll just discuss as two.

Both are plagued by our failure to look out for others and for the future of our country and the world. Is it fueled most by greed or fear or a combination. The inequities continue to get worse. Just look at the impact of the pandemic. If you want to consider yourself the best, then you look out for all your people. You take care of those without adequate education, short of food, lacking healthcare. You look after the children and the elderly. You treat all people equally. We need to wake up and truly love our fellow man. We're not true to what this country claims to be about. Then we should be among those leading the world toward better conditions.

The solutions are not simple. Certainly cutting down on the rates of reproduction would help in many ways. Shortening life expectancy would do the same but I don't think that's a solution many of us want. We just need to figure out how to support a growing population. We can help those needing help while at the same time turning them into contributors. There are unused resources everywhere.

We all have to care and we need leadership to help turn our caring into real impactful action. We need to stop our isolationist thinking and I'm not just referring to only thinking of our country, but only thinking of our state or city or people most like us. There are so many people hurting so badly and none of us, individually, can change that, we can just help one at a time. But our country, if it wants to be considered great, must do that. Otherwise all the flag waving means nothing. It's time to stand up. The United Nations needs to step up as well and be held accountable. I look at what the Gates Foundation has and continues to do. Certainly no one will agree with all the propose or try. However, their real accomplishment is the kind of things nations should be doing. That includes all nations too, both friends and enemies. We should rise on our own and then we can rightfully apply pressure to others.

It's not going to be the total number of people that swamp us. It's going to be those we're not taking care of, those we've cast aside, those fighting to survive. I'm an educator by nature and it's the undereducated, undertrained who pull us down and it's our fault collectively they're like that. We didn't care enough. In sports, it's often said that a team is only as strong as it's weakest players. Not always true. But I think as a nation and as a society we're only as strong as the weakest among us. We need to raise them up. :)
Click to expand...


Thats just the left wing mantra...inequality....caring into real action, fighting to survive, etc. There are other more valid points about so called overpopulation, like thosecthat real demographers who study the matter say.
 
RT Firefly said:
Link to what the "real demographers" say, please. I want to know more about this.
Click to expand...

They say that the world population curve is flattening, and will stop at about 10, or 10.5 billion or so, then decrease. Most peoples wives and daughters dont have as many kids as their grannies did. Even in third world countries thats the case. As women get more education, more freedoms, more access to birth control, etc, they have less kids. Indeed, many countries are already at less than replacement values, muchless overpopulating.
Its pretty much just some left wingers who resent people.
 
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RT Firefly said:
Link(s) please.
Click to expand...

Sorry you never knew any of that. And I have a new policy on citations with unknown people. Its been my experience that I would often take the trouble to look up a bunch of cotations, careefully submit them...then useally get a reply like ...."I dont belive them". So pardon me if I dont want to get sucked in again. But to prove your creds, I could ask you a question....do you acknowledge that most of our wives and daughters dont have as many kids as their grannies did? Your answer will tell me if youre a serious interlocutor. Another reason to be suspicious is because ive revently been the victim of severe trolling in other threads here.
 
Ahahahaa, I remember you now. You're the 'How many kids did your grandma have' guy! :rofl:

You're probably not far off with the ultimate human population. 10-20 billion, tops.

Oh, and like pics of one's new boat, without citation it didn't happen. Just sayin'.
 
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Greetings,
Mr. KY. Ya, but you know those Canadians. All they do is fornicate and listen to Nickleback records. Doesn't prove a thing. I want to see REAL proof.
 
KnotYet said:
Being of retirement age I have some concerns myself, but a quick peek on Amazon
shows a 4-pack of your filters for under $20.
So I have to ask who is distorting reality? I live (almost) in one of the largest cities
in the country and product shelves are as packed as ever.
Maybe you're seeing a local issue and thinking it's like that everywhere?

Since you brought it up, do you think there is a connection between gun culture and
the attack on the capitol resulting in the miles of crowd control fencing?
Click to expand...

Sooo. what city are you hanging out in with all the packed shelves? Were they packed a year ago when all this pandemic hit the fan? I take my gun culture guns to the woods and had plenty of food, i didn't mention food. I mention things that are not a necessity. I mention water front lots and building material for high end products. I didn't mention crowd control fencing. I do however despise the a holes who stormed the capitol and again I am from a red neck state and I saw all the rebel flags flying. Don't confuse the people that did that stupid **** with us. Maybe it is a local issue, how much is a sheet of plywood or a 2x4 where you reside?
 
Greetings,
Mr. s. "I've been boating and drinking all day".


iu



Nice and warm here today. Got up to 4C. (39F).
 
David Ess said:
Thats just the left wing mantra...inequality....caring into real action, fighting to survive, etc. There are other more valid points about so called overpopulation, like thosecthat real demographers who study the matter say.
Click to expand...

Wifey B: I knew it would bring such ignorant comments and if you agreed with me on anything, I'd be quite scared. I admit to being an advocate for caring and for the underprivileged and concerned about inequality. I make no apologies for my beliefs or attitudes. :)
 
I dont want to hear about people that dont have what they need. They dont have it because they dont want to work for it. I have downsized my business, tired of trying to find people that want to work. A local marine outfit stipped doing recoveries, cant get people tgat want to work. Got som A/C parts from the only guy with a 100ton travel lift for 500 miles... he is around 80 and doing the majority of every yard job he takes himself... cant get help that wants to work.

So yea...if "Joe Person" doesn't care enough to work for it i sure as he$$ am not gonna worry for him. And if i have to work less to not have a profit to avoid being taxed to death to feed that same person, so be it. With what i have and skills i have for under the table work, ill survive... because i have worked and learned the skills i need. If "joe person" is too lazy, or feels too entitled to do that, i firmly wish Darwin's law upon him. As with wifey b I make no appologies fir my beliefs or attitudes.
BandB said:
Wifey B: I knew it would bring such ignorant comments and if you agreed with me on anything, I'd be quite scared. I admit to being an advocate for caring and for the underprivileged and concerned about inequality. I make no apologies for my beliefs or attitudes. :)
Click to expand...
 
swampu said:
Sooo. what city are you hanging out in with all the packed shelves? Were they packed a year ago when all this pandemic hit the fan? I take my gun culture guns to the woods and had plenty of food, i didn't mention food. I mention things that are not a necessity. I mention water front lots and building material for high end products. I didn't mention crowd control fencing. I do however despise the a holes who stormed the capitol and again I am from a red neck state and I saw all the rebel flags flying. Don't confuse the people that did that stupid **** with us. Maybe it is a local issue, how much is a sheet of plywood or a 2x4 where you reside?
Click to expand...

You see, when a person quotes a prior post and then types below it, like I'm doing here,
that means they are responding to that post, not necessarily the OP.

Sooo, I was actually responding to kthoennes' post, not yours, you see? :rolleyes:
 
jgtrucking said:
I dont want to hear about people that dont have what they need. They dont have it because they dont want to work for it. I have downsized my business, tired of trying to find people that want to work. A local marine outfit stipped doing recoveries, cant get people tgat want to work. Got som A/C parts from the only guy with a 100ton travel lift for 500 miles... he is around 80 and doing the majority of every yard job he takes himself... cant get help that wants to work.

So yea...if "Joe Person" doesn't care enough to work for it i sure as he$$ am not gonna worry for him. And if i have to work less to not have a profit to avoid being taxed to death to feed that same person, so be it. With what i have and skills i have for under the table work, ill survive... because i have worked and learned the skills i need. If "joe person" is too lazy, or feels too entitled to do that, i firmly wish Darwin's law upon him. As with wifey b I make no appologies fir my beliefs or attitudes.
Click to expand...

Wifey B: Amazing we have no problem getting people who want to work. Could it be we pay and provide decent benefits? :rolleyes:
 
"I'm very surprised it hasn't happened already."


Seeing and knowing how currency bubbles are created , is far easier than predicting the timing of the collapse , and creating a plan to sidestep the collapse.
 
KnotYet said:
Ahahahaa, I remember you now. You're the 'How many kids did your grandma have' guy! :rofl:

You're probably not far off with the ultimate human population. 10-20 billion, tops.

Oh, and like pics of one's new boat, without citation it didn't happen. Just sayin'.
Click to expand...

Thanks for agreeing im right about the figures. But theyre not mine, rather what the people who know most about demographics say....the professional demographers.

And my new policy of not wasting too much time giving citations to non serious interlocutors is sound.

But I dont mind citing mynew avatar boat. Its a Alva 50, monohull, Eco-Cruiser. One of my partners wants us to get one, thecversion with....2X230W electric motors....240 KwH battery pack.......solar cell, 4.9kw. CE-A rating.
 
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