Is it time to liquidate your investments?

[tiltrider1]

Au contraire, I take a balanced view of the markets and the economy. Time will tell. Maybe it`s different here, savings are up, spending is down,people are watching and waiting and playing safe.
Do you see the current situation as way better than 2008. It might be, if we see "cure and snapback". Unlike the GFC which affected us very little, this financial event depends on disease resolution to begin recovery. I do think corporations and markets are currently artificially maintained by Govt handouts and some mesmerized investors. Presumably you would say B & B was greatly mistaken selling down 50% of stockholding as( I `d assume) a move to safety.
I don`t follow US dividends,presumably Amazon and Netflix are increasing theirs proportionate with their "BOOMING" business, but here they are down. Banks for example were "asked" to halve dividends. We may very well have different trading conditions to yours.
I applaud your unbridled confidence.Are you buying up airline stock? Should be cheap buying right now.

There is the short term market and there is the long term market. In the long term profits drive stock prices up. In the short term all kinds of semi related issues drive stock prices. One thing most people miss is that money does not have a lot of places to go right now. If CD’s were paying 10% the the market would drop like a rock. Money prefers less risk but it needs returns. With interest rates so low there is little interest in parking money in CD’s or bonds. Normally REIT’s would take up the slack but right now REIT’s have been hammered by the no eviction orders and mandatory retail closures. The only solid profit returning assets are stocks. With all the money pouring in its driven the prices sky high. Easy to think the money can leave as fast as it showed up, and it might, but it has to have some were to go. Add to this equation inflation fears and now money will only leave stocks for inflation resistant assets. This means CD’s and bonds are probably out of favor for a long time. REIT’s need government intervention to stop and customer earnings to return to normal before they gain any favor. This leaves precious metals and stocks as the only long term viable answer for profits and inflation resistance. So maybe the stock market prices aren’t as crazy as they sound.

Personally I don’t worry about all this short term stuff. My time horizon has always been 5 to 10 years out. I did up my cash position from one year worth to 2 years worth and I have slowed my stock purchases but I am considering increasing my investments in REIT’s.

 

[BruceK]

Good points Tiltrider. One issue I did not cover, is what to do with available $. Interest rates, traditional money parking, are lousy. Real estate is highly priced, rents are falling, and a number of property owners would be in trouble without the ability to suspend loan repayments, which can`t last forever. So the share/stock market beckons, despite being overpriced, on any sane PE ratio, and in light of an economy on Govt life support. If we had neither "Jobkeeper" or "Jobseeker" propping up employment and non employment, things would rapidly become dire.
It`s watch and wait. Over 300,000 Covid infections worldwide yesterday, and rising. Waiting for cure and snapback.

 

[FF]

My question was removed , how does one invest if either side refuses to honor the election?

So, how does one invest if there is a civil war?

Now that this question has finally hit the main stream media perhaps the board owners will let the question stand.

 

[Simi 60]

Good points Tiltrider. One issue I did not cover, is what to do with available $. Interest rates, traditional money parking, are lousy. Real estate is highly priced, rents are falling, and a number of property owners would be in trouble without the ability to suspend loan repayments, which can`t last forever. So the share/stock market beckons, despite being overpriced, on any sane PE ratio, and in light of an economy on Govt life support. If we had neither "Jobkeeper" or "Jobseeker" propping up employment and non employment, things would rapidly become dire.
It`s watch and wait. Over 300,000 Covid infections worldwide yesterday, and rising. Waiting for cure and snapback.

Is in some areas, not so in others.
Our rents have started going up and property prices are very cheap compared to Sydney.
As yet we have not had any tenants approach us for rent reduction or assistance so we've had no need to go the suspended loan repayment route.

Saying that, we have started selling off our more expensive rentals - first one went unconditional today.
Profits from each will pay out totally one of our cheaper rentals.

Over the last 15 years our more expensive, newer rentals have had shorter tenancy, more repairs and generally more trouble and I can see that getting worse and more tiresome.

Our cheaper rentals have had the opposite.
Most have had 5 year + leases, great tenants and bugger all maintenance issues.
Old houses built right and tenants that treat a place like their own.
Because they are cheaper, many of our tenants have always been on some form of pension/rent assist getting Govt support
Gotta love unencumbered property that provides income from a stable source of payment.

 

[Steve DAntonio]

You underestimate the adaptability of the US market. Places like Amazon and Netflix are BOOMING because of what is going on. Capitalism has a way of looking for opportunity where none seems to exist. So I disagree with your "market in denial" theory. It just doesn't make sense to you because all you see is what you want to see....doom and gloom. There are many sectors that are booming because of it. And most (professional)investors see it. ANd while the market is down YTD, it isn't by much. ANd if you bought on the way down then you are most certainly ahead.

Again, agreed, it can be remarkably resilient, capitalizing on human creativity and resourcefulness. "Capitalism has a way of looking for opportunity where none seems to exist", provided there is an incentive to do so, when not manipulated and constrained, even with the best of intentions. Amazon, Zoom, Netflix, PayPal, Lowes, Home Depot and others are perfect examples BTW, all stocks that have done well if not soared in reaction to recent events. I'm not against reasonable over site, just fettering of the free-market and its natural reactions to economic/political events, which tends to work.

 

[Janet H]

My question was removed , how does one invest if either side refuses to honor the election?

So, how does one invest if there is a civil war?

Now that this question has finally hit the main stream media perhaps the board owners will let the question stand.

Once again another thread is being closed.


The forum is here for discussions about boating and off topics posts are ok so long as they aren't political in nature and in keeping with the spirit of the site rules: https://www.trawlerforum.com/forums/misc.php?do=sknetwork&page=rules