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Old 04-26-2020, 10:39 AM   #21
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Liquidated all but 1 holding out of 10 mid-Jan till the end of Feb. Sent the Feds their share the end of March. I think it is time to cautiously begin to buy back. I have started to re-enter the markets, hoping to be on the train before it leaves the station, hopefully not backing out. Only a small timer in the markets, but have been dabbling since the early 70’s
IMO timing getting out is frequently easier than when to get back in... and timing is everything.
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Old 04-26-2020, 12:17 PM   #22
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IMO timing getting out is frequently easier than when to get back in... and timing is everything.
Take a look at a chart of the S&P 500 over a decade or two or three. Timing doesn't mean much in the long haul. Look up Warren Buffet's bet with some hedge fund guys as well back, in 2007.

Another Buffet favorite of mine was when someone asked him when was the best time to sell the stock of a good company. His reply was "Never".

I always get a kick out of internet postings describing perfect timed trades a few months after the fact.
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Old 04-26-2020, 12:19 PM   #23
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IMO timing getting out is frequently easier than when to get back in... and timing is everything.
My approach has worked well through the last several recessions for the index funds (I won't buy managed funds) in my 401k, and for individual stocks I own outside of it. First, I abandon any hope of buying at the bottom or selling at the top. Instead, when a significant change occurs (massive Wuhan virus deaths in Italy, a pro-business president after 8 years of the opposite, the housing bubble bursting in 2007 - long before Lehman failed), I buy or sell accordingly. Not nearly as profitable as hitting the tops and bottoms, but much more profitable than staying in (or out, which I would not consider) at all times.
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Old 04-26-2020, 02:48 PM   #24
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I always get a kick out of internet postings describing perfect timed trades a few months after the fact.
It's less about timing and more about using limit orders. Figure out at what price the stock is a really good buy. On some I'll have 2 or 3 limit orders at different prices. Sometimes mine hit sometimes they're near misses. The orders are free, you just need to have the cash in the account incase they hit. If multiple orders hit, you can always sell the high cost shares when the stock goes back above the strike price and after 30 days. The hard part is being patient.

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Old 04-26-2020, 04:08 PM   #25
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Take a look at a chart of the S&P 500 over a decade or two or three. Timing doesn't mean much in the long haul. Look up Warren Buffet's bet with some hedge fund guys as well back, in 2007.

Another Buffet favorite of mine was when someone asked him when was the best time to sell the stock of a good company. His reply was "Never".

I always get a kick out of internet postings describing perfect timed trades a few months after the fact.
My thoughts are consistent with Buffett's in general. A lot of attention on Berkshire's upcoming meeting. Now, BH has lost 13% the last 12 months but it's very much a buy and hold type entity. The belief is that even with all they have to invest, they're remaining cautious at this point.

As far as short term strategies, I'm not willing to work hard enough to learn and do short term trading. That's not an area I'm expert in. I understand buying and holding a good company. i don't understand buying futures or options and selling next week or filling the sell order or holding for only three days. And, like gambling, there are winners and losers in that. I always figured I'm an amateur in a world of professionals, I'm the loser. Vegas poker players would call me a fish.

My wife and I play a little poker. Game with winners and losers and guarantee to the house. We never play at a table that is majority professionals. We will play with one or two pros at a table full of amateurs. Inebriated amateurs are even better. Then those who are willing to lose big money just to say they played with famous pros.
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Old 04-26-2020, 04:59 PM   #26
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You know I've never seen posts on any forums from those who have lost their shirts and what they did to cause it.

Strange.
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Old 04-26-2020, 05:23 PM   #27
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You know I've never seen posts on any forums from those who have lost their shirts and what they did to cause it.

Strange.
Why?

You don't see most of the people on this forum owning up to bad decisions or how they sunk their boat.

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Old 04-26-2020, 05:34 PM   #28
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You know I've never seen posts on any forums from those who have lost their shirts and what they did to cause it.

Strange.
Wifey B: Oh, I lose my shirt easily, but in the way you're talking about we've sure lost a lot the last couple of months. How? Investing in retail and in manufacturing and selling in retail.

No regrets though. We'll pick up the pieces as the crisis passes and build back to where we were. Not going to let it beat us down but going to come out aggressively.
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Old 04-26-2020, 05:36 PM   #29
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Why?

You don't see most of the people on this forum owning up to bad decisions or how they sunk their boat.

Ted
Wifey B: Haven't sunk a boat yet.

How about ordering a new build right before Covid 19 hit hard? Does that count? Ordering from an Italian builder, even worse.
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Old 04-26-2020, 05:45 PM   #30
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Wifey B: Oh, I lose my shirt easily, but in the way you're talking about we've sure lost a lot the last couple of months. How? Investing in retail and in manufacturing and selling in retail.

No regrets though. We'll pick up the pieces as the crisis passes and build back to where we were. Not going to let it beat us down but going to come out aggressively.
Yes, you want a picture of investing in retail one year ago.

Macy's $24.50 Now $5.02
JC Penney $1.36 Now $0.24
Gap $26.03 Now $6.90
Sears $0.69 Now $0.14
L Brands $25.90 Now $10.31
Ascena $23.20 (Hit $29.20 after) Now $1.13

Fortunately our stores haven't lost that much value, at least not in our minds. So, glad we invested in ours and not in theirs and glad we're not public and don't have to make SEC disclosures of how bad things are.
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Old 04-26-2020, 06:15 PM   #31
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Well I don't mind sharing that I retired from J&J at the end of 2016 so still have stock options riding on them until 2026. So when the market tanked and J&J went from $154 to $117 in two weeks, plus a similar drop in my managed accounts, my paper losses were eye-watering.

The thing about granted stock options is that you are really playing with a lot of other people's money in a way (the strike value) so it is somewhat easier to just let them ride for the full term.

However, it is still scary to see what can happen, and quickly!
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Old 04-26-2020, 07:06 PM   #32
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Why?

You don't see most of the people on this forum owning up to bad decisions or how they sunk their boat.

Ted
I have to disagree Ted. Actually one of the things I like about this particular forum is that many people are quite open about their various mishaps and disasters. I've served up some graphic evidence myself. Go back through the archives and you'll see a lot of examples from a wide group of fellow yachtsmen and women.

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Not to do what I have done..."
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Old 04-26-2020, 07:37 PM   #33
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I once sat at a table at Foxwoods next to a guy who was reading a book and would only play hands with high potential. The table quickly figured him out and when he bet, only one or two other players would stay if they, too, had good hands to play. He left the table a loser. He thought he was smart but he was exceedingly easy to read.
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My thoughts are consistent with Buffett's in general. A lot of attention on Berkshire's upcoming meeting. Now, BH has lost 13% the last 12 months but it's very much a buy and hold type entity. The belief is that even with all they have to invest, they're remaining cautious at this point.

As far as short term strategies, I'm not willing to work hard enough to learn and do short term trading. That's not an area I'm expert in. I understand buying and holding a good company. i don't understand buying futures or options and selling next week or filling the sell order or holding for only three days. And, like gambling, there are winners and losers in that. I always figured I'm an amateur in a world of professionals, I'm the loser. Vegas poker players would call me a fish.

My wife and I play a little poker. Game with winners and losers and guarantee to the house. We never play at a table that is majority professionals. We will play with one or two pros at a table full of amateurs. Inebriated amateurs are even better. Then those who are willing to lose big money just to say they played with famous pros.
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Old 04-26-2020, 08:22 PM   #34
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If you didn't get out in about mid February this year, you missed your moment.
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Old 04-26-2020, 09:15 PM   #35
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I once sat at a table at Foxwoods next to a guy who was reading a book and would only play hands with high potential. The table quickly figured him out and when he bet, only one or two other players would stay if they, too, had good hands to play. He left the table a loser. He thought he was smart but he was exceedingly easy to read.
I've sat at tables with pros who were incredible. Then I've sat with players who had $50,000 in chips they'd bought and couldn't win in a home game against 12 year olds. The guy like you described wins a good number of hands but never any money in the pot. I can't believe those who get drunk while playing poker for high dollars. I've seen a guy thought he had it won with a flush. Had to be shown that one card wasn't a spade, but was a club. Then I've seen my wife take a few to the cleaners who couldn't read her eyes, because they never looked at them. 90% of good female poker players wear low cut tops which accomplishes nothing against pros but a lot against amateurs.
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Old 04-26-2020, 09:31 PM   #36
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I've sat at tables with pros who were incredible. Then I've sat with players who had $50,000 in chips they'd bought and couldn't win in a home game against 12 year olds. The guy like you described wins a good number of hands but never any money in the pot. I can't believe those who get drunk while playing poker for high dollars. I've seen a guy thought he had it won with a flush. Had to be shown that one card wasn't a spade, but was a club. Then I've seen my wife take a few to the cleaners who couldn't read her eyes, because they never looked at them. 90% of good female poker players wear low cut tops which accomplishes nothing against pros but a lot against amateurs.
Well I guess she was using her investments wisely!
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Old 04-26-2020, 09:45 PM   #37
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I follow the same rule for gambling that I do for playing the lottery. Can't lose if you don't play.

Ted
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Old 04-26-2020, 10:19 PM   #38
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Well I guess she was using her investments wisely!
Wifey B: No investment. Using my assets to my benefit though. All natural.
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Old 04-26-2020, 10:21 PM   #39
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I follow the same rule for gambling that I do for playing the lottery. Can't lose if you don't play.

Ted
I use to never play the lottery. Too logical in looking at the odds and average return, poor investment. Wife liked it and said nothing to lose and lots to win. I went along with her. First time you win anything significant, it's amazing how your view changes. I learned long ago, Wifey B knows best.
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Old 04-26-2020, 10:32 PM   #40
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I use to never play the lottery. Too logical in looking at the odds and average return, poor investment. Wife liked it and said nothing to lose and lots to win. I went along with her. First time you win anything significant, it's amazing how your view changes. I learned long ago, Wifey B knows best.
I guess if you can view the expenditure as equivalent to doing something for entertainment and it has a zero impact on your finances, go for it. Watched too many people who hadn't funded their retirement, throw money at it.

Ted
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