The Inverted Yield Curve

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I don't necessarily agree with that statement - I think it is more accurate to say it is hard to separate policy and economics.
Consider that POTUS has bitterly criticized Jerome Powell, head of Fed Reserve, over interest rates. Even asserting he is the real enemy of USA over and above Chinese President Xi. Admittedly, hard to follow the comparison as, in the eyes of POTUS, Xi can oscillate between good guy/best friend one day, and worst enemy the next.
Isn`t that politics and interest rates, and implicitly bond yields,interacting.
 
"I always wondered why all the money managers and investment counselors weren't multi-millionaires..."

H. Truman claimed if all the economists were stretched from here to the Moon, they would all point in a different direction .

The only sure thing is "Death and Taxes ".
 
The yield inversion that preceded the 2008 financial crisis was also accompanied by over valued real estate. The yield inversion happening now may be momentary BUT real estate over valuation is on that crazy trend again.
 
"I always wondered why all the money managers and investment counselors weren't multi-millionaires..."

H. Truman claimed if all the economists were stretched from here to the Moon, they would all point in a different direction .

The only sure thing is "Death and Taxes ".

The problem with economists is that they predict behavior based on economic principles. Well, most people aren't economists and don't follow those principles. Buying and selling are often emotional decisions.
 
I am trying to relate the inversion curve to trawlers. Maybe this is a good time to invest long term in a new boat? (this may be the exception to my golden rule of never using the word invest and boat in the same sentence...except when speaking to wife).
 
Definitely a difference between a depreciating and earning asset unless you can calculate the joy involved in owning the depreciating asset.
 
I am trying to relate the inversion curve to trawlers. Maybe this is a good time to invest long term in a new boat? (this may be the exception to my golden rule of never using the word invest and boat in the same sentence...except when speaking to wife).

If your money is going to lose all it's value anyway, might as well use it to buy a boat.
 
Every time I have hear this said I think of two things:

They aren't? How do you know the net worth of the good ones? In fact any of them?

Mine is - he has ~ one billion under management. Two partners with office staff. Average 1% management fee. You do the math.

Sounds like my brother's son-in-law in Boston. Last I knew, his firm (two partners) accepts investment money but with a $25 million minimum.
 
Received this from my wealth management company this afternoon. Thought some of you might find it interesting and informative as I did given that it is written in layman's terms.

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Second, let’s assume for argument’s sake that this recent inversion is a warning sign of a future recession. That doesn’t mean a recession is imminent. Some analysis suggests that it takes an average of twenty-two months for a recession to follow an inversion. That’s a long time! A long time to save, invest, plan and prepare.

5. So does an inverted yield curve even matter, then?

We will put it simply: It matters enough to pay attention to. It doesn’t matter enough to be worth panicking over. Make no mistake, we’re in a volatile period right now. There’s a lot of evidence to suggest that volatility will continue. But while comparing the markets to the weather has become something of a cliché, it also makes a lot of sense. When storm clouds gather, we pack an umbrella or stay inside. We don’t run for the hills.

The same is true of market volatility.

The 22 months for a recession to follow an inverted yield curve, well, that doesn't mean the lights go out all at once. It means that it takes that long for economists to conclude that, indeed, a recession is happening. In the meantime, during those 22 months, much can be happening such as a slow, steady downturn in all things economic. Some examples would be: the unemployment rate, unemployment claims, rate of GDP growth, job creation going down. Think about this. We were promised that the big tax cut was going to result in GDP growth of 4% - 5% and the tax receipts therefrom would eventually pay for the decrease in tax revenue, A couple of weeks ago the Bank of America projected GDP growth of 1.8% for the last quarter of 2019. To me that is very concerning number. and it would not surprise me that, in a year from, many leading economic indicators are in decline. As far as those growth rates that were promised, those promises were as credible as the threat from Saddam Hussein.

No need to panic? Restructuring investment portfolios to a more conservative but yet lower returns is not panic. Think of it as changing your oil every 100 hours even though it is still good to use. You know, cheap insurance. Folks, this 10-year run-up in the economy is not going to last forever but there will be many who will hang on too long because they just can bring themselves to maybe lose out on that last bit of capital appreciation. I have restructured and I sleep well at night. So what if my returns are less. I know I won't get killed when the inevitable recession becomes a reality. In the meantime I will still be making a modest, but safer return.
 
Regarding recession. Last 2 years Australia had a near bubble real estate devaluation, which has mostly bottomed and recovering, in some but not all areas. We have a retail spend contraction, some stores are doing it hard, and the restaurant area is really struggling. People have reduced spending to retain $ "in case" they need cash later. They tend to pay down their mortgage rather than spend any incentive money coming their way. This can have a snowballing effect.
Remember, Australia largely dodged the US generated GFC of 2008/9, though stock prices took a hammering and years to recover.It`s a long while since we saw a recession.
I wonder if low interest rates are the result of QE, leading to a glut of cash, so there is lots of $ in excess of the demand available to borrow. Too simplistic? Seems like supply and demand in operation to me.
 
About to see some real sticker shock at retail starting after midnight tonight. Some will hit the shelves slowly and some very quickly. Some large retailers quite concerned. I don't know how much it will slow sales and which products will feel it most. Will it impact sales of groceries? Shoes? Clothing? Furniture? Televisions? Sporting goods? Musical instruments? I don't see people buying fewer groceries, but I do see the potential of a slow down for furniture and televisions and musical instruments. Shoes and clothing I have no idea.

Then will it have any impact on the economy as a whole?
 
About to see some real sticker shock at retail starting after midnight tonight. Some will hit the shelves slowly and some very quickly. Some large retailers quite concerned. I don't know how much it will slow sales and which products will feel it most. Will it impact sales of groceries? Shoes? Clothing? Furniture? Televisions? Sporting goods? Musical instruments? I don't see people buying fewer groceries, but I do see the potential of a slow down for furniture and televisions and musical instruments. Shoes and clothing I have no idea.

Then will it have any impact on the economy as a whole?
Is this price hike due to tariffs on imported Chinese made goods? As I understood POTUS statements, the tariffs fall on China whose money has been pouring into US tax coffers as a result. But if prices really do go up, to allow for tariffs, doesn`t that mean US citizens and residents are paying the tariff. If China was paying, prices would not need to rise.
The price increase would be inflationary. For reasons I don`t get, Govts now seek what was previously a bogey, namely inflation. Then wages need to increase so people can afford the price rises,so more inflation. Alternatively, demand for goods lessens, reducing money passing around the economy, and reducing the need for staff to administer imports and sales of goods,further dampening the economy.
But if China is paying the tariff, none of that happens. Is China paying?
 
Is this price hike due to tariffs on imported Chinese made goods? As I understood POTUS statements, the tariffs fall on China whose money has been pouring into US tax coffers as a result. But if prices really do go up, to allow for tariffs, doesn`t that mean US citizens and residents are paying the tariff. If China was paying, prices would not need to rise.
The price increase would be inflationary. For reasons I don`t get, Govts now seek what was previously a bogey, namely inflation. Then wages need to increase so people can afford the price rises,so more inflation. Alternatively, demand for goods lessens, reducing money passing around the economy, and reducing the need for staff to administer imports and sales of goods,further dampening the economy.
But if China is paying the tariff, none of that happens. Is China paying?

You know the answer. The US consumer pays. Tariff is paid by importer, passed on by distributor, added by retailer, paid by consumer. All tariffs are paid on the receiving in. Difference between US and China is China has cut way back on US imports since the tariffs.
 
"For reasons I don`t get, Govts now seek what was previously a bogey, namely inflation."

Govs are very deeply in debt , inflation makes their currency less valuable , so paying the debt is easier. The lenders get hosed as do folks with savings .

Deflation, money becoming more valuable is all govs worst nightmare as folks have a harder time earning the money to pay the taxman, or their debts.

More folks are usually more in debt , than have much savings , so are happier when their house valuation number goes "up" from inflation , so the citizens are slower to dump the current rulers.

In Germany savers loose as money in savings costs , just to be in a bank or gov bond.
As the gov has guns and a printing press so the deposits are considered "safe".
 
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Higher prices on imported goods will bring them closer to domestic produced prices so consumers may also do one of two other things. Switch to domestic produced goods (positive impact on jobs and deficit), or not buying at all (recessionary).
 
Is this price hike due to tariffs on imported Chinese made goods? As I understood POTUS statements, the tariffs fall on China whose money has been pouring into US tax coffers as a result. But if prices really do go up, to allow for tariffs, doesn`t that mean US citizens and residents are paying the tariff. If China was paying, prices would not need to rise.
The price increase would be inflationary. For reasons I don`t get, Govts now seek what was previously a bogey, namely inflation. Then wages need to increase so people can afford the price rises,so more inflation. Alternatively, demand for goods lessens, reducing money passing around the economy, and reducing the need for staff to administer imports and sales of goods,further dampening the economy.
But if China is paying the tariff, none of that happens. Is China paying?

Is China paying? NO!!!!, despite our president's lies to the contrary. The importer pays the tariff when the goods are received here. Ever hear of bonded warehouses? Goods cannot be released until the tariff is paid. Tariffs work the same everywhere in the world. Sometimes, the importer will absorb the cost of the tariff and not increase prices to the consumer but that won't happen long term.

This trade war with China is not winnable. Trump has many times publicly embarrassed China. There is nothing more important to an Asian than "face". The Chinese will never give Trump the satisfaction of doing a deal with him. The Chinese have a 4,000 year (?) history. They will suffer the short term hardship. Short term to the Chinese is not two years, Their view is decades. If Trump continues to escalate this trade war, and he will cuz he never admits a mistake, it will eventually lead to a recession here and abroad, Brilliant. Whether you are a Trump supporter or not, you should be concerned. This is a loser strategy.
 
When I first posted there were 4.1 Million hits on a google search for "trump inverted yield curve". As this intellectually dishonest, hateful, campaign propaganda thread has progressed, the count has dropped to 2.2 million hits. So at least something interesting came out of it. People who would willfully crash the economy are scum. And why stop there? I wouldn't put it past the same scum to intentionally start a civil war. The party of peace and love, my ass.
 
Higher prices on imported goods will bring them closer to domestic produced prices so consumers may also do one of two other things. Switch to domestic produced goods (positive impact on jobs and deficit), or not buying at all (recessionary).

In most of these categories there are no domestic alternatives, so the only option is paying or not buying.
 
Is China paying? NO!!!!, despite our president's lies to the contrary. The importer pays the tariff when the goods are received here. Ever hear of bonded warehouses? Goods cannot be released until the tariff is paid. Tariffs work the same everywhere in the world. Sometimes, the importer will absorb the cost of the tariff and not increase prices to the consumer but that won't happen long term.

This trade war with China is not winnable. Trump has many times publicly embarrassed China. There is nothing more important to an Asian than "face". The Chinese will never give Trump the satisfaction of doing a deal with him. The Chinese have a 4,000 year (?) history. They will suffer the short term hardship. Short term to the Chinese is not two years, Their view is decades. If Trump continues to escalate this trade war, and he will cuz he never admits a mistake, it will eventually lead to a recession here and abroad, Brilliant. Whether you are a Trump supporter or not, you should be concerned. This is a loser strategy.

This has never been about China vs US. Globalist money industrialized China to avoid paying US taxes and cost of living. Tax evasion, legalized by their lobbyists in Washington, State and International capitals. It's time for the globalists to pay their fair share. Social justice, economic justice.

Transfer Pricing described this at one time. The definition has changed to justify wrongdoings.


I'm waiting for some stupid fool to say conspiracy theory.
 
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When I first posted there were 4.1 Million hits on a google search for "trump inverted yield curve". As this intellectually dishonest, hateful, campaign propaganda thread has progressed, the count has dropped to 2.2 million hits. So at least something interesting came out of it. People who would willfully crash the economy are scum. And why stop there? I wouldn't put it past the same scum to intentionally start a civil war. The party of peace and love, my ass.

Intellectually dishonest, hateful, campaign propaganda? How so? And who would willfully crash the economy anyway and how about telling us who those all-powerful scum are that they have such power and how would they do so? Wow. You have turned what has been civil discourse on a troublesome problem for the country into a mean-spirited diatribe. And the same scum would start a civil war? How would that happen? And who among those who have participated in this discussion, this civil discussion, is scum? IMHO you need to be permanently banned from this forum. Did I misinterpret? If so, I apologize.
 
And I thought this was about the yield versus loss on Inverters, LOL!
 
Good explanation for the inverted yeild curve in the bond market. I have two things to add. 1. Now that the yeild curve is inverted what is the next thing to watch for as a sign of a recession? From what I hear on the business channel it is the credit spreads. Any addition info on that would be helpful. 2, The inversion is caused by foreign money coming into the US bond market primarily the longer term bonds, because of negative bond yeilds in other countries. Other recessions it was from money coming out of our stock market and such, going into our bond market. Thoughts?
 
Is China paying? NO!!!!, despite our president's lies to the contrary. The importer pays the tariff when the goods are received here. Ever hear of bonded warehouses? Goods cannot be released until the tariff is paid. Tariffs work the same everywhere in the world. Sometimes, the importer will absorb the cost of the tariff and not increase prices to the consumer but that won't happen long term.... .
To be fair, POTUS may believe China is paying, not US residents who buy Chinese made imported goods. Error rather than untruth? Then I guess you decide which of lie or inability to understand the obvious is more acceptable.
China has become the major manufacturer of finished goods at a low price. That has taken out many manufacturers here, and it seems in USA. Bar tooling up to recommence manufacture, China remains THE supplier. Here at least, our labour cost militates against local production, we just cannot compete.
Less manufacture > lower employment > economic and social trouble.
 
To be fair, POTUS may believe China is paying, not US residents who buy Chinese made imported goods. Error rather than untruth? Then I guess you decide which of lie or inability to understand the obvious is more acceptable.
China has become the major manufacturer of finished goods at a low price. That has taken out many manufacturers here, and it seems in USA. Bar tooling up to recommence manufacture, China remains THE supplier. Here at least, our labour cost militates against local production, we just cannot compete.
Less manufacture > lower employment > economic and social trouble.

I once made a business trip to Sydney and evaluated a manufacturing facility. Conclusion was that it was not efficient, partly due to 9 different unions. However, even if made efficient, costs would still be above US costs.

US plants can be made profitable but it's a lot of work and requires a unique product. Higher costs versus longer lead times. Many trade-offs. However, costs of importing would have to change far more for companies to rebuild. We're now to a new generation to and different skills and persons trained in some jobs are long gone.

Gradually, in anticipation of the trade war worsening, more production has been moved to other Asian countries. Years ago the trend was to move some to Central and South America. However, political situations in those areas has greatly reduced that. Still there is production in Honduras and El Salvador.

We're retailers and so importers and are impacted by this war. On the other hand, we're also manufacturers who produce only in the US and the rises in apparel costs actually are to our benefit. However, we are still concerned about the rising prices and consumer response. Take a customer like Macy's. While we may have 400 sq ft of floor space, the other thousands of square feet are filled with imported goods. If the store suffers, then ultimately we do as well. We need our customers to continue to be successful.

We do have US manufacturing facilities. However, all of those are facilities we acquired except one we started where another had recently closed. I swore I'd never be in manufacturing again. I was wrong. Our line was new so we didn't convert any foreign manufacturing to US. There are still many facilities likely to close as they move production off shore. Several I know that have moved much of their production to Central America. One example is a NC manufacturer that had moved about 50% to El Salvador. They were acquired and the new owners want 100% moved. All about labor costs.

US manufacturing does work when the freight costs exceed the extra labor costs. That's why the auto industry still is here. Plus, although it employees a lot of people, it's still more a capital intensive and highly engineered business.
 
"The Chinese will never give Trump the satisfaction of doing a deal with him. "

Then they may up loosing much of the US market. And be ousted from the WTO.

The big deal is NOT taxes on Harleys or bulldozers , it is the 300 billion of information stolen each year for the past 30 years.

*
Finished goods contain all the costs in there creation.

No corp ever pays a cent in taxes or tariffs the end purchaser pays all.

Lower internal taxes do make products easier to sell as exports .
 
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Consumer sentiment (how the consumer feels) is a big factor also, as was pointed out previously. We see this drives stocks/companies beyond there evaluation and then some. Just look at, beyond meat, Netflix, even Tesla. It depends if enough american consumers will be excited about buying "American made" or maybe by the negative exposure china is getting, Hong Kong protests, patent theft, IP theft ... it will be enough to just not buy chinese made. Consumer spending is the biggest part of our economy. My hope is that we get some manufacturing back in the US but cleaner and more effecient than it was when it left. This could be an opportunity to build some state of the art polution free facilities without all the extra baggage the companies had before. The more manufacturing we have here the less the tariffs effect us except for exports of course.

Bud
 
I would like to know what the aim is.

To equalize trade flow? To make it somewhat better - if so, how much better? To bring manufacturing back, if so how would it do that versus higher prices? Where are we with the EU, didn't both sides apply tariffs there as well?

There are a dozen other questions I could ask, but right now I get the sense that it is more tit-for-tat and both sides saying "we can outlast you", rather than a cohesive policy a with a specific aim.
 
I would like to know what the aim is.

To equalize trade flow? To make it somewhat better - if so, how much better? To bring manufacturing back, if so how would it do that versus higher prices? Where are we with the EU, didn't both sides apply tariffs there as well?

There are a dozen other questions I could ask, but right now I get the sense that it is more tit-for-tat and both sides saying "we can outlast you", rather than a cohesive policy a with a specific aim.

IMHO I would draw the line at the intellectual theft. Its ok to make something invented in the US cheaper and sell it to us, but to steal the intellctual property associated with the product in the process is desrtuctive to us. Why should we continue to be China's enabler.

Bud
 
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