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Old 10-30-2020, 06:30 PM   #1
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Diesel Price Stable or Lower

Looks like diesel could be at least stable if not lower for awhile.
https://www.marinelink.com/news/trad...paign=MT-ENews
Also new ships being built that use LGN are replacing ships that burn bunker diesel (MDO).
https://www.marinelink.com/news/meet...rt-ship-482784
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Old 10-30-2020, 08:44 PM   #2
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Lepke I was just wondering about that the last few days seeing gas prices drop.

Missed out on the cheap diesel on the first wave of the virus so I checked one talk today ... 30gallons about. 30 in one of two 50gal tanks.
But I thought we were almost out so 30 gals means we can go out for a few days w/o worrying about fuel.

This is funny .. I’m actually addressing maint issues w the intention of doing some winter cruising. Anchor handling on the bow and kerosene storage (for Wabasto) are two examples of what I’m working on. I’m hoping the Canadian border may open in the winter. That would limit the influx of Americans streaming over the border but of course the virus will probably deep six that.

So Lepke keep us up to date on these issues.
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Old 11-01-2020, 02:34 AM   #3
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Europe is shutting down again for covid19. Oil demand is down everywhere. Airlines are flying less and probably won't return to pre-covid schedules for some time. That's a lot of fuel.
Here's what the crude price has done over the last month:
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Old 11-01-2020, 07:00 AM   #4
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How quickly would it rise after the green new deal? I'm not in the market for a bigger boat till after the election.
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Old 11-01-2020, 07:41 AM   #5
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I'm curious, what aspect of the New Green Deal would cause diesel to increase in price? I'm not taking sides with this question. It's just a question trying to understand the economics. At the end of the day, price will be driven by supply and demand. Always has been, always will.
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How quickly would it rise after the green new deal? I'm not in the market for a bigger boat till after the election.
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Old 11-01-2020, 09:25 AM   #6
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There are basically two ways to reduce petroleum use in the US: mandate that other things have to be used, or tax it. Automobile mileage standards are a form of mandate. A carbon tax is a tax.

Taxes will definitely increase prices.

Mandates maybe not if there is no mandate to use another fuel for boating use. Mandates may actually reduce demand for automobile use and decrease prices for boating to use the available supply.

But I doubt that will happen. There will be restrictions on drilling for petroleum and refining it into gas and diesel which will increase prices.

But who knows?

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Old 11-01-2020, 09:40 AM   #7
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How quickly would it rise after the green new deal? I'm not in the market for a bigger boat till after the election.
I am not letting politics decide my yachting decisions. I boat to get AWAY from politics. Priceless. If you need a bigger boat to be within comfort limits buy it.
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Old 11-01-2020, 11:47 AM   #8
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Oil is down to $40 a barrel and the futures market shows no indication of prices moving up. Unfortunately it’s gasoline storage that appears to be getting scarce. I think diesel will stay stable possible even move down. Gas is probably going to be cheap this winter.
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Old 11-01-2020, 01:37 PM   #9
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Not sure of the green new deal But the current administration has done something past policy makers have failed at. Making the US energy independent! To go back to the old ways and become dependent on Foreign oil again would be foolish Remember when OPEC controlled the price of oil? A war on fossil fuels could easily drive the cost of diesel to double or triple what it is now. If you think solar, wind, will fill in the gap. I doubt it! The real problem is if people are responsible for climate change, where were the people when the Ice Age killed the dinosaurs? The Earth's natural cycles are less affected by what we do than some folks think. The government can make life hard on folks, some guy driving his 5 thousand dollar car to work can't afford 8. dollar a gallon gas or a new 75k Tesla-- Give us a break I like cheap fuel Rant over.
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Old 11-01-2020, 02:35 PM   #10
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Not sure of the green new deal But the current administration has done something past policy makers have failed at. Making the US energy independent! To go back to the old ways and become dependent on Foreign oil again would be foolish Remember when OPEC controlled the price of oil? A war on fossil fuels could easily drive the cost of diesel to double or triple what it is now. If you think solar, wind, will fill in the gap. I doubt it! The real problem is if people are responsible for climate change, where were the people when the Ice Age killed the dinosaurs? The Earth's natural cycles are less affected by what we do than some folks think. The government can make life hard on folks, some guy driving his 5 thousand dollar car to work can't afford 8. dollar a gallon gas or a new 75k Tesla-- Give us a break I like cheap fuel Rant over.
The current administration did not make us energy independent, the market did. The move to fracking, the main source of our independence, began well before January 20, 2017. We are already moving inexorably away from fossil fuels, climate change or no climate change. Did you know that in the State of Texas there are now more folks working in the solar energy field than in the oil fields?

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Not sure of the green new deal But the current administration has done something past policy makers have failed at. Making the US energy independent! To go back to the old ways and become dependent on Foreign oil again would be foolish Remember when OPEC controlled the price of oil? A war on fossil fuels could easily drive the cost of diesel to double or triple what it is now. If you think solar, wind, will fill in the gap. I doubt it! The real problem is if people are responsible for climate change, where were the people when the Ice Age killed the dinosaurs? The Earth's natural cycles are less affected by what we do than some folks think. The government can make life hard on folks, some guy driving his 5 thousand dollar car to work can't afford 8. dollar a gallon gas or a new 75k Tesla-- Give us a break I like cheap fuel Rant over.
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Old 11-01-2020, 02:37 PM   #11
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I am visiting the State of Connecticut as I write. Regular gas at Sam's Club yesterday was $1.70/gallon.
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Oil is down to $40 a barrel and the futures market shows no indication of prices moving up. Unfortunately itís gasoline storage that appears to be getting scarce. I think diesel will stay stable possible even move down. Gas is probably going to be cheap this winter.
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Old 11-04-2020, 08:23 AM   #12
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The usual price driver in winter is how cold the winter is.

Home heating oil and diesel are almost identical.

In some locations home heating oil is used as diesel fuel, as the response to $5.00 a gal diesel.

The best war between diesel drivers and the tax folks is in Euroland.

For a while the diesel fill hose was plugged and a fill inside the car worked.
The fill pipe had real undyed diesel, the taxers would find when sticking a rag into the tank.

Eventually the taxers realized the game and got longer probes , and a book describing how far the probe should go into various cars.

The drivers solution was to install a modified fill pipe fuel tank, that had the fill pipe extend to the far tank wall.

In the USA boats are not required to pay the road fuel taxes and few have diesel cars this little war does not exist , yet.
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Old 11-04-2020, 11:14 AM   #13
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I consult into the O&G industry, though into IT. The major producers (Exxon, Chevron, BP, Shell, etc.) are mostly profitable with oil at $35/bbl, though there are many variables by source (O&G use "BOE" - Barrel Oil/Equivilent to include shale, etc.). They have mostly taken an impaired asset-write down based on shift in market due to Covid. Based on public disclosures, they see oil remaining in the mid-$40/bbl for foreseeable future. This is a reduction from $60-ish.

For those who think this is a political thing - Green New Deal, the major's are moving on their own. Both BP and Shell have announced to be transform from an O&G to an Energy Company - Net Zero by 2050. They see a tectonic shift in long term demand and yes, politics, and are trying to get ahead of it. It's ironic that with all the arm-waving by politicians, the industry is pivoting on their own. It's good business I suppose.

Bottom line - my read is oil prices will fluctuate mildly, but stay in the current range of $35-$45 bbl for the forseeable future based on the public disclosures of the Majors for future outlook. Pump-price should follow, roughly.

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Old 11-04-2020, 12:03 PM   #14
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Nomad Willy,
they won't be opening any time soon. With winter comes the ski season... Whistler/Blackcomb being one of the premier Ski resorts in North America, they would draw A LOT of travelers!!!
As well as people just wanting to travel a bit and/or see family up there...
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:44 AM   #15
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As more and more products are made from plastic , it makes sense to sell epoxy at $15 a gallon rather than gas for two bucks.
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Old 11-05-2020, 07:54 AM   #16
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Old 11-05-2020, 09:52 AM   #17
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I recently drained my smaller fuel tank which was a replacement for a leaker. The first time I filled I had some issues. Now I can fill that tank (actually four tanks linked together) and know how much it holds. My fuel gauge shows about 3/4 of a tank when fuel is already squirting out of the vent. But when it says empty, its sucking air. Sooo I'm in the market for low cost diesel. I'll be filling soon. Last time, COVID special, $2 per gallon including taxes. $401 gallons for $801. I'll take that anytime.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:06 PM   #18
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Next big fight will be plastic. Today read US is now the number 1 producer of plastic waste. When China changed its policies on receiving paper and plastic waste regardless of the recycling requirements in your local region both are stacking up with no place to go. That’s been a big problem. Just look at the LA docks. Plastic is a driver for the petrochemical industry. Economics not green new deal or the like will drive plastic use down as expense for disposal goes up. Using Adam Smiths rule that will drive down end user cost for the #2 we all use. Or so we hope. Do hope in the future we go back to metal parts. Longer service life and even when no longer made you can get a local machine shop to make you one.
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Old 11-05-2020, 12:32 PM   #19
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Here in France the diesel was 1Euro 25, it dropped by 20 cents a litre at the last Covid lockdown (4.5 litres = a UK gallon).
They've just introduced another lockdown and night curfew and the prices are now coming down again.
We'll be going to Andorra to visit hot spring spa and it has even cheaper taxes so diesel is around 95 cents a litre so we'll fill the trunk with 11 20 litre cans to top up our tanks.
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Old 11-07-2020, 07:10 AM   #20
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"Economics not green new deal or the like will drive plastic use down as expense for disposal goes up."

Plastic is oil and most burns quite well , except it is not easy to burn and have a clean exhaust gas..

A simple solution might be to require a portion of electric production to use waste plastic. It would take some years , but the natural gas , mostly day surge use generation plants are quickly built .

It should add very little to the consumers electric cost , and would be a "good" all need to pay for.

After a while the electric generation folks might even learn to generate at a lower cost with waste plastic?
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