Will trawlers disappear?

[Fletcher500]

Hippocampus, interesting thread and discussion. I like how you think, and hope you stick around and keep contributing to the forum.

 

[Art]

So take it back a step.
Due to petrochemical dependent factory farming less than 2% of the population raises food and there’s still enough to be exported. That permits survival of an increase in population. Although we are now 28th in quality of life measures we still educate the engineers, physicians and scientists allowing a increasingly positive biologic quotient (survival long enough to be able to procreate). You are right more and more destruction of the environment. But think about why more people are possible. Even in third world countries it comes back to petrochemicals at present.

Read The Edict! by, Max Ehrlich

I read it during mid 70's... recall it well.

It will take an Edict to stem population growth!

 

[bligh]

I agree. Tho only solution to pollution is to significantly reduce the population .

As mentioned previously, boat stores have vanished from the Annapolis waterfront where I lived 30 years ago, because of cost of real estate, availability of online products at lower cost, choice selection of online products, and the ridiculous parking problems of anywhere in Annapolis. While I do try to buy from the boatyard I patronize, it's only to help support them (friends). The closest I come to an auto parts store is to buy oil at Walmart.

Global climate change isn't a problem. It's a symptom of an excessive human population. Other symptoms would include depletion of the ocean's natural fish stocks, shortages of clean safe drinking water, and clearing of forests and filling of wetlands for agriculture and housing.

Until the earth's human population starts to decline and other species start to return to more normal levels, the human population will continue heading for a massive crash.

Ted

 

[Woodland Hills]

With many if not most religions opposed to birth control and abortion and many if not most cultures lauding large families, how do we do this?

There are the old favorites: War, Famine and Pestilence, but is that the route you propose? It would be better to lower births, but I don’t see how that can be mandated worldwide. That leaves only controlling population on the back end: killing those already born.

 

[sean9c]

Has anybody mentioned to just buy a sailboat? Solar for battery charging and battery powered propulsion for on and off the dock.

 

[O C Diver]

With many if not most religions opposed to birth control and abortion and many if not most cultures lauding large families, how do we do this?

There are the old favorites: War, Famine and Pestilence, but is that the route you propose? It would be better to lower births, but I don’t see how that can be mandated worldwide. That leaves only controlling population on the back end: killing those already born.

It will probably happen by plague (not Covid19). It's probably impossible to make it happen voluntarily (2 children per couple). While you may be able to convince the educated and those who pay the full cost of their children, it's unlikely you can convince the uneducated, those on partial subsidies or welfare, and those with unwavering commitments to religious doctrine.

Ted

 

[Woodland Hills]

There are lots of people who pay the full price of their children who want big families. I read somewhere that the average Indian couple had 8 births so that at least 5 would survive to adulthood. This was so that the parents could have at least one son to support them in old age. Lowering infant and child mortality will drop the birth rate but not the number of children. An effective national retirement plan might. Educating women has proven to be effective in lowering the numbers of children, but not every culture or religion is in favor of this.

 

[MurrayM]

Will trawlers disappear? They still make bi-planes.

 

[Art]

Will trawlers disappear? They still make bi-planes.

Depending on the time of day or time of year, there could be anywhere from 8,000 to 20,000 planes mid-flight at any given moment, according to Flightradar24, which keeps track of flights in real time.

 

[Slowmo]

I'm not convinced the hand wringing over population growth is justified. It as been shown that as countries develop birth rates drop. The last projections I've seen suggest that global population will peak around 2050 then start to decline. We already have seen this in Japan, Europe is next to have a declining population. US immigration offsets this trend. Without immigration US population would remain relatively flat at ~330MM and start declining after 2050.

Be careful what you wish for. A declining population creates significant problems for a society. Social welfare system depend on a flow of young workers to support the cost of retirees. This is why the Europeans are quickly pushing up retirement ages, they simply can't afford to have people retiring at age 65 without their systems collapsing.

Obviously eventually we will have to adapt since by the end of this century global population is likely to be declining. ...Not sure what any of this has to do with trawlers.

 

[O C Diver]

For the last 15 years, the world population has increased by 80 Million or more each year. By 2035, the world population will be over 9 Billion. One can spin the numbers and say the rate of growth as a percentage of the population is decreasing. But, we're still increasing by 80 Million per year. Insanity!

Ted

 

[Art]

I'm not convinced the hand wringing over population growth is justified. It as been shown that as countries develop birth rates drop. The last projections I've seen suggest that global population will peak around 2050 then start to decline. We already have seen this in Japan, Europe is next to have a declining population. US immigration offsets this trend. Without immigration US population would remain relatively flat at ~330MM and start declining after 2050.

Be careful what you wish for. A declining population creates significant problems for a society. Social welfare system depend on a flow of young workers to support the cost of retirees. This is why the Europeans are quickly pushing up retirement ages, they simply can't afford to have people retiring at age 65 without their systems collapsing.

Obviously eventually we will have to adapt since by the end of this century global population is likely to be declining. ...Not sure what any of this has to do with trawlers.

Soylent Green!?!?

 

[Nomad Willy]

Too many people.
If we had tabled the population expansion in 1950 how would we be doing now?

 

[SoWhat]

Will trawlers disappear? They still make bi-planes.

Count the number of square riggers in your harbor

 

[AusCan]

I see the end of diesel coming earlier than many posters here.

25 years ago, no one thought wind and solar would be viable for power stations without massive incentives.
Today new fossil fuel power stations struggle to compete without incentives.

Fuel for transport is a different matter. We are lagging in battery technology although it just takes one technical breakthrough and things can change very quickly.

If fossil fuels were taxed to cover environmental damage done, changes would be rapid as well.

 

[MurrayM]

...If fossil fuels were taxed to cover environmental damage done, changes would be rapid as well.

Oil companies will be held partially responsible.

Exxon was aware of climate change, as early as 1977, 11 years before it became a public issue, according to a recent investigation from InsideClimate News. This knowledge did not prevent the company (now ExxonMobil and the world’s largest oil and gas company) from spending decades refusing to publicly acknowledge climate change and even promoting climate misinformation—an approach many have likened to the lies spread by the tobacco industry regarding the health risks of smoking. Both industries were conscious that their products wouldn’t stay profitable once the world understood the risks, so much so that they used the same consultants to develop strategies on how to communicate with the public.

That's the first paragraph in the article linked below. The rest is worth a read:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/

 

[MurrayM]

Spooky, watching the film linked below...Climate of Concern...produced by Royal Dutch Shell in 1991. Must have slipped through the cracks before oil companies started actively working to deny humans have had a hand in warming our planet.

This film should be required watching for every climate change denialist:

 

[psneeld]

Count the number of square riggers in your harbor

Not a fair comparison....

Kayaks, rowboats, canoes and sailboats are still around

 

[Hippocampus]

Sailing sees decreasing numbers of new participants ever year. As the boomers age out they aren’t replaced. Gear heads are disappearing as well. My kids look at cars/pick ups as transportation nothing more. Sure there are a few “tuners” but they are outliers. I tell my kids I enjoy working on the boat and get strange looks. The same dynamic that is killing independent hardware stores is occurring in the marine industry. I used to go to the hardware store to learn as well as buy. Sometimes stop off at my favorite chandlery just to catch up on fishing reports and shoot the breeze. Now I YouTube and go to the internet or big box to buy.
You need the infrastructure to make cruising by power or sail enjoyable and worth the bucks involved. With Safe Harbors buying everything in sight around here and the increasing absence of a true supportive relationship with your yard built over decades the Marina isn’t the warm fuzzy place it once was. As numbers fall due to the increasing lack of interest in the trawling or even the cruising lifestyle by our kids the economics don’t support expansion or even maintaining the current level of necessary infrastructure. Sure rack stored or trailered center consoles are doing fine but interest in the big jump to a documented vessel is waning. Sure there’s been a bump due to covid but that will pass. Waits for a town mooring remain ridiculous but in my town are down from 25 years to seven. When 40’+ boat moorings time out two smaller moorings go in. So waits for larger moorings are about the same still. My town field used to be filled with commercial fish boats, and power/sail over 40’. Now you don’t run out of fingers and toes to count them all. Commercial vessels is withering as trans generational lobstering decreases and small ( under 60’) trawlers don’t get launched. There were three places to buy fuel. Now there’s one. A Safe Harbor marina that used to be an independent. (Bought by Brewers then Safe Harbor).
So fuel may remain cheap but what about the rest of supporting infrastructure?

 

[Peter B]

Has anybody mentioned to just buy a sailboat? Solar for battery charging and battery powered propulsion for on and off the dock.

I was wondering when someone would raise that. Especially as the OP is coming out of sail - or at least considering it. Irony is that the thing that got me into sailing was the strong desire to get my family out on the water, and the possibility of finally being able to afford a boat, as a young family Dr in NZ.

However, right then, (late 70s), we were hit harder than most counties by the first so-called 'oil shock'. as NZ while having quite a lot of natural gas, does not have much in the way of oil at all. This therefore propelled me in the direction of sail, and we purchased our first trailer yacht in 1978. There were few diesel powered leisure vessels available in NZ at that time, and we all know how fast large outboards chew through petrol, so there was a huge boom in yacht-building, especially of the trailerable sizes, at that time, and they are still very popular over there. Just not quite so much here in Oz.

So, in some ways, does the original posters (Hippocampus's) query point back to sail..? Many have cited examples of why most forms of 'green' energy just don't cope with the demands we require of it. Ironic isn't it, considering how most of us are very vocal about just how much we enjoy power and the luxuries of the room, weather protection, and amenities the trawler style vessel provides..? So, back to sail then..? Somehow, I don't think so, but it might be the answer for some.

 

[psneeld]

My point about cruisers and sailing. Fewer, but sail was very popular after the rise of internal combustion engines.

Antique cars have a niche.

Sure times change..... but interesting things in good shape seem to last way past their prime.

 

[OldDan1943]

Unfortunately, those who cant afford children are having children.

 

[Hippocampus]

Good post Peter. Like you have a compulsion to be on the water. Doesn’t matter much to me how. After 8+ sailboats and tens of thousand of miles near shore and blue water don’t want to sail anymore. The sailboat is sold. Money wired into my account. Done deal. Just don’t want to go up on the foredeck anymore in a blow. Don’t want the constant diligence to required to get the best vmg (velocity made good). Tired of the wife telling me “ stop trimming and sit down”. A cruising sailboat has all the complexities of a power boat plus that of a sailing vessel. Even adding in stabilization there’s two sets of chores, maintenance. parts sourcing and expense. There’s no plug and play or point and shoot.
While in Grenada I got sick from a skin wound. Care was dismal so made plans to medivac. Day before flight went septic inspite of antibiotics and bed ridden. Sent wife to boat to drain water tanks. Had boat hauled so she needed to go up a ladder. She fell 10’ and fractured her ankle in three places. We fly out. I was admitted. Had surgery and proper infectious disease care so survived. Visiting nurses for over a month. She got proper orthopedic care and a cast then boot and PT for a total of 2 months. Now nearly 8 months out she’s healed but her balance and agility on deck is lacking. Even harnessed she’s unsafe on a sailboat needing both hands or time to feel secure. I can replace a boat easier than my true companion. Time to move on. I’m intrigued by voyaging under power. New learning. New experiences. A new lifestyle. I’m making sweet lemonade from lemons. A blessing in disguise.

 

[psneeld]

Many of the cruising sailboats I have been on (including my own to a point) and see snowbirding every year.....are motoring.

So for many sailors, the switch to power makes sense...if anything much more comfortable.

 

[Hippocampus]

Think that depends where you are. Much of the east coast ( Chessie, mass bay L.I. Sound) sees little wind in the late summer. But the trade winds blow all year. Most winters we never saw a full main and rarely a genny. Would go the whole 8 months never visiting a fuel dock. Commonly would get there (1500 to 2000nm) with more than half our fuel left. Suspect it’s the same in SF bay and like places. Also there’s too many “sailors” who don’t know how to sail. Don’t realize most sailboats are faster under sail than under power. Or are just too lazy. Also prevailings are southwesteries so for the fall trip south you’re either on a beat if going outside or under power in the AICW. Going north is another matter. One year instead of following the rhum line to Newport from Antigua the weather router sent to north of the Bahamas . There we waited for a week Hove to for the weather to clear. Then jumped the Gulf stream with a fresh breeze behind us and blasted up the coast often in double digits under double heads and no main. Went much faster than we could under power.

 

[psneeld]

You are lecturing the wrong guy. I too would have a sailboat or motorsailer if I spent most of my time in the trades.

I didn't say the Carribean, I mentioned the snowbirds.....the usual path of all but the rare blue water trawler.

You can dIscuss the 1% ers...but being a pro on or above the waters for almost r0 years....I get it.

If you buy any trawler but a few you are considering, blue water cruising will truly be a challenge.

But you are correct that too many sailors dont really sail or are too look lazy...probably why they should just own coastal trawler/cruiser type boats.

As others have mentioned, a motorsailor may be a better choice of a "voyager" rather than a limited and overpriced trawler.

 

[Rufus]

Eventually, the pool of decent old "trawlers" is going to disappear, in large part because of old ineffficient and dirty engines that can't realistically be replaced with modern power plants due to emissions requirements. Further, this category of boats get used and abused with little general maintenance and few upgrades. The number of clapped out loop boats is steadily growing....I wonder where they'll go to die.

 

[Hippocampus]

PS you’re undoubtedly salty. No argument. Be fun to bend elbows and discuss war stories with you. But it’s interesting that the motorsailers are gone too, Have been for awhile regardless of brochure hype. Complaint was they did neither well. The Nordhavn 56 version is a dog under sail from what I hear. Also way too dear for me. DD are really sail assist as long as the wind is abeam or behind the mast. Amel is making sloops as nobody wants a ketch. Nauticats are EU class B. So you’re looking at one offs that are above my pay grade. We want to go smaller and less involved. You’re right choices are limited and overpriced. Is what it is.
BTW there’s hundreds of boats that snowbird from Canada and east coast to the Caribbean yearly. Very few are 1%ers.

 

[Art]

From what I understand... sail boats [in general] travel some 60% of the time under power??

That fueled-engine power use cuts into the "green" statute of sailing... although that does make the sail boat numbers at least 40% cleaner "greener" than power boats.

And, I guess you could say [due to lesser speeds, smaller engine(s) and smooth hull designs] that in general a sailboat uses less fuel per mile under power... so, let's conjecture that in overall context sail boats are 50% cleaner "greener" to use than power crafts.

However - For "pleasure boating" uses, sail boats have several drawbacks compared to power boats [sometimes termed "Stink Potters" by our clean-green sailing friends].

We all know the general/usual drawbacks: too tall height, reduced speed, need for wind, pilot exposure to the elements, cave-like interiors with little opportunity to see outside, deep draw that limits use in shallow water... and on... and on.

Soooo... Correct answer to this need for power, which creates a sizeable air pollution conundrum... is to have Full-Cycle, Carbon Neutral liquid hydrocarbon fuels available.

For nearly three decades, engineers and I have been working [alongside and with many associates] to create and then provide this fuel source. We have our tests completed and prototypes either built, in construction or in process of final designs. We're currently seeking big buck$ funding to put wheels on this baby!

Due to TF ad rules I am not allowed to openly post name/website of my organization. PM me if you'd like to know more.

Happy Fuel-Source Daze! - Art

 

[Hippocampus]

Don’t where this 60% comes from. Been sailing for over 3 decades. For the people I know and myself number is more like well <10%.