When Does it Become Cost Prohibited?

[Fletcher500]

BB, it’s good to see large employers like yourself do the electrification thing with your vehicles. A power plant is burning a fossil fuel in many areas of the country to charge those batteries as we all know, but it’s cleaner system than an ICE engine.

I spent a lot of time on large single story warehouse building roofs up to 2M sq ft before I retired a couple years ago. Many of these buildings have solar in the build spec, and existing buildings are being retrofitted with them, at least in SoCal where I mostly worked. These are huge systems and make a difference to the grid.

We have had solar panels on our house roof for 10 years. My wife is due for a new car and it will be either hybrid, or possibly electric but I am not still not thrilled with the run/charge durations on the full electric.

It’s a process to eventually get there and smart engineers, scientists, techs, and many others are making it happen.

No easy answers.

 

[KnotYet]

Responses after each question:

So the logical question then becomes, at what point and how do they tax electric cars to make up for the lost revenue from gasoline and diesel road tax?
Now, at least in the states that bother.

The other point to make is that your comparisons are based on fuel prices within the last 90 days. Utilities lag behind in raising their rates. But as as the price of natural gas increases, so will the cost of electricity.
Actually, the comparison is not dependent on fuel prices. Power
generation plants will sometimes switch to burning petroleum when
necessary, and thus could if there was a big enough price disparity.
EVs are inherently more frugal; being powered by natural gas just
makes them more so.

As we becoming increasingly larger electricity users will home consumption go to a tiered schedule like many municipal water bills where the rates increase as you consume more per month? Will you pay a higher rate or will offsets not be allowed during periods when solar energy isn't produced?
This has occurred and seems a reasonable approach.

Ted

 

[KnotYet]

This whole charade is so baffling to me since 2/3 of what fuels these plugins that charge these vehicles is the same fossil fuels that we are burning in our combustion engines.
How is that a step up in sustainability or a step down in cost?
Someday perhaps, but we really need to focus effort on converting the grid before this is very exciting to me.

Based on your post, it is a 33% step up!
Not to mention that the power generation plants will pollute less than the vehicles.

 

[klee wyck]

Based on your post, it is a 33% step up!
Not to mention that the power generation plants will pollute less than the vehicles.

Except that 1/3 of the two thirds is still coal.....plants that may only still be needed because we are plugging in our cars?

 

[KnotYet]

And, I read a stat the other day. Hey, its on the internet so it must be true, right? The stat said 500,000 pounds of the earth has to be dug up to get enough lithium, nickel, copper, etc. for a single Tesla battery. Probably exageration but there is still a point in there somewhere.

I want the move to electric to be true. I think many do. B&B's analysis points out its close to being true. But I do think that in addition to the math, we do have to look at the negative stuff about it squarely in the eye. Solve that too, and not just the math. Ruination of a lot of ground to solve the air isn't necessarily a step forward. Could be, if addressed. Won't be addressed if it isn't acknowledged.

One ought to contemplate the number of gallons of petroleum products that the
Tesla's battery is replacing, too.
The battery in my hybrid is closing in on 15 years & 260,000 miles!
I've avoided burning thousands of gallons of gasoline just in my SUV.
Tesla batteries represent tens of thousands of gallons not burned in their lifetimes.

 

[KnotYet]

Except that 1/3 of the two thirds is still coal.....plants that may only still be needed because we are plugging in our cars?

No, reread you own post. You stated that 2/3 of the electricity used is from the
same blah, blah. Or are you referring to the hybrids are running on fuel 2/3 of the time?

Either way,
your ratio may not be the true differential but, as anyone paying attention already
knows, power plants use their fuels more efficiently and some use no fuel at all...

 

[O C Diver]

Responses after each question:

You missed the point on price comparisons. BandB's comparison was based on elevated gasoline costs, whereas utilities haven't raised prices yet to reflect natural gas cost increases. When gasoline prices stabilize and utilities raise their rates, the dollar difference will narrow. This isn’t to say an EV isn't cost effective, just that comparisons need to be made with all in fuel costs.

Ted

 

[klee wyck]

No, reread you own post. You stated that 2/3 of the electricity used is from the
same blah, blah. Or are you referring to the hybrids are running on fuel 2/3 of the time?

Either way,
your ratio may not be the true differential but, as anyone paying attention already
knows, power plants use their fuels more efficiently and some use no fuel at all...

Don't get me wrong Knot, I share your enthusiasm for every electric motor than can replace a combustion engine. I just wish we would apply the same frenzy to modernizing the grid simultaneously so this technology could benefit our emissions inventory even more.

For an explanation of my reference to proportions that was unclear at best: two thirds of grid power is still supplied by fossil fuels. Of that two thirds, one third of the fossil fuel based electricity is coal (20% of total).
And I agree that where the fuel is natural gas, the efficiency of conversion in a powerplant is higher than a gasoline burning car by nearly double. Not so true in old coal plants.
And, it is possible that it is the Tesla drivers in Seattle that want to breach the hydropower facilities in my state that cause me to be a little sensitive about this.
On our farm, we are trying to commission to 1.5 megawatt solar system to power motors instead of engines to feed our communities.
We are on the same team I think.....

 

[KnotYet]

You missed the point on price comparisons. BandB's comparison was based on elevated gasoline costs, whereas utilities haven't raised prices yet to reflect natural gas cost increases. When gasoline prices stabilize and utilities raise their rates, the dollar difference will narrow. This isn’t to say an EV isn't cost effective, just that comparisons need to be made with all in fuel costs.

Ted

You missed the point on the actual comparison between gasoline transportation
and electric transportation. The dollar difference may narrow (or may not) but
the era of cheap subsidized petroleum is quite literally in the rearview mirror.
In fact, can you quote any figures or even projections where petroleum will be
less expensive per person-mile than natural gas fueled electricity driven vehicles?

Now add to that the reality of renewable energy - the fastest growing segment of
power generation...

 

[KnotYet]

Don't get me wrong Knot, I share your enthusiasm for every electric motor than can replace a combustion engine. I just wish we would apply the same frenzy to modernizing the grid simultaneously so this technology could benefit our emissions inventory even more.

For an explanation of my reference to proportions that was unclear at best: two thirds of grid power is still supplied by fossil fuels. Of that two thirds, one third of the fossil fuel based electricity is coal (20% of total).
And I agree that where the fuel is natural gas, the efficiency of conversion in a powerplant is higher than a gasoline burning car by nearly double. Not so true in old coal plants.
And, it is possible that it is the Tesla drivers in Seattle that want to breach the hydropower facilities in my state that cause me to be a little sensitive about this.
On our farm, we are trying to commission to 1.5 megawatt solar system to power motors instead of engines to feed our communities.
We are on the same team I think.....

No worries; at least in my neighborhood the electric company crews are out
almost daily upgrading the power infrastructure - not a little bit to avoid sparking
another wildfire...
Like so many things, it will happen one piece at a time.

 

[O C Diver]

You missed the point on the actual comparison between gasoline transportation
and electric transportation. The dollar difference may narrow (or may not) but
the era of cheap subsidized petroleum is quite literally in the rearview mirror.
In fact, can you quote any figures or even projections where petroleum will be
less expensive per person-mile than natural gas fueled electricity driven vehicles?

Now add to that the reality of renewable energy - the fastest growing segment of
power generation...

Gasoline prices hit a high in 2008 of $4.11 per gallon, adjusted for inflation that's $5.25 today. Twice since then it has been below $2 per gallon. Fossil fuel is a commodity whose price is based on supply and demand.

Most renewable energy equipment is manufactured outside the USA. Its prices are based on commodity costs, exchange rates, export tariffs, and worldwide demand. This is no different than lithium batteries. If we don't produce it, we don't control the costs.

Ted

 

[magna 6882]

Look at the bright side. Maybe transient slip fees come down, or at least the price hikes slow down.

Thats what i am thinking. More folks decide to stay home will open up space for more adventures.

 

[sunchaser]

And, I read a stat the other day. Hey, its on the internet so it must be true, right? The stat said 500,000 pounds of the earth has to be dug up to get enough lithium, nickel, copper, etc. for a single Tesla battery. Probably exageration but there is still a point in there somewhere .

No, 250 short tons is not an exaggeration. If you really want a shock, find out the number of gallons of diesel that is used to drill, blast, dig, haul, doze, grade mine roads, process, haul upgraded metals to smelter, refine metals and haul to the battery plant.

Considerable fossil fuels are used to produce EVs. Oh, the mine workers can't afford a Tesla S so drive to work in their decade old pickup that does double duty hauling their ski or bass boat on off days.

 

[Northern Spy]

No, 250 short tons is not an exaggeration. If you really want a shock, find out the number of gallons of diesel that is used to drill, blast, dig, haul, doze, grade mine roads, process, haul upgraded metals to smelter, refine metals and haul to the battery plant.

Considerable fossil fuels are used to produce EVs. Oh, the mine workers can't afford a Tesla S so drive to work in their decade old pickup that does double duty hauling their ski or bass boat on off days.

That made me smile.

 

[KnotYet]

Gasoline prices hit a high in 2008 of $4.11 per gallon, adjusted for inflation that's $5.25 today. Twice since then it has been below $2 per gallon. Fossil fuel is a commodity whose price is based on supply and demand.

Most renewable energy equipment is manufactured outside the USA. Its prices are based on commodity costs, exchange rates, export tariffs, and worldwide demand. This is no different than lithium batteries. If we don't produce it, we don't control the costs.

Ted

You don't answer my question but do help to explain why running vehicles on
electric energy would reduce the impact of petroleum price volatility.

The 'renewable energy equipment' you refer to can be compared to the crude oil
itself that it will be replacing. Both are produced worldwide as well as domestically.
Neither are undesirable based on country of origin. The market determines the price.

 

[KnotYet]

No, 250 short tons is not an exaggeration. If you really want a shock, find out the number of gallons of diesel that is used to drill, blast, dig, haul, doze, grade mine roads, process, haul upgraded metals to smelter, refine metals and haul to the battery plant.

Considerable fossil fuels are used to produce EVs. Oh, the mine workers can't afford a Tesla S so drive to work in their decade old pickup that does double duty hauling their ski or bass boat on off days.

If you want a bigger shock, do the same analysis with the energy required to do
the same with nuclear fuel and the infrastructure that it requires.

Try this for a thought experiment:
Which are there more lbs. of? Vehicle batteries or every other Lithium based rechargeable?
Now answer why you believe vehicle batteries are a bigger problem than the others.
Hint: the vehicle batteries have a 15+ year usage cycle.

 

[sunchaser]

Now answer why you believe vehicle batteries are a bigger problem than the others.

Nice switch but my reply was directed to moving 250 tons of dirt for metals used in EV car builds. Now, back to the costs of boating to AK.

 

[Hippocampus]

My house is zero footprint (HERS rating better than 97% of houses, geo and solar) but I’m struggling to find a replacement for the land vehicles that’s similarly green.
Throughout my adult life mostly had a full-size 4by pick up, a SUV and a collection of motorcycles (with at least one dual sport). Even a full dresser gets 40-50mpg (except in stop and go) but now due to driving behavior and road conditions they’re unsafe as daily drivers. Truly miss the pickup but cost of ownership and troubles finding parking made it too difficult. So switched to two SUVs last go round. One is a trail rated diesel with 720 mile range.
Our use is long trips ( MA to FL or the like), off grid and then modest daily driving of 100-200m. The trip to either daughter’s house is ~200m -250m round trip and done weekly when we’re not cruising. Off grid jaunts usually last about a week. None of the current e offerings in either pickups nor daily driving satisfy our use profile. I imagine it would be the same problem for rural areas and undeveloped areas where charging stations would be too far apart. Also filling up with liquid fuel takes nothing like the time as recharging a e vehicle. Have yet to see adequate charging station numbers in motel/hotel parking lots. We commonly drive 500-800m/d when doing interstate travel. Fuel is done at pee breaks.
Problem with e vehicles at present is they are capable for meeting the requirements for urban and suburban folks needing only limited range as well as short haul trucks but not for the other 20% of users. Even for interstate trucks sufficient infrastructure exists to make it viable. So at present the problem is the lack of supporting infrastructure as well as the lack of range and the time it takes to recharge.
So even though we sell electricity back to the grid (a lot when off cruising) there’s no way we wouldn’t have to make major concessions to our lifestyle if we went e vehicle at present.

 

[rslifkin]

As much as EVs don't currently cover every use case, the highway travel cases are definitely improving. Someone I know recently moved from upstate NY to California. They bought a Mach-E last year (battery electric, 300 mile range at best) and they drove it out to California. They indicated that charging wasn't much of an issue on the trip, although I'd expect not every possible route would be equally viable.

 

[NEtrawler58]

I think EVs can accommodate most of the driving needs with nothing more than home recharging. Most drivers average about 35 mi/day and trips of 100s of miles are rare for most. So why doesn't everyone own one? It's the price! Many drivers can't afford a new car, let alone an electric one. Many can't afford to fill up on gas and buy just enough to keep their 20 y.o. Nissan going to get them to work. We can argue the pros and cons all we want, but let's not forget that the vast majority of the population does not have the means to buy one. That is lost on most EV advocates and I find it insensitive to those who don't have the luxury of deciding between buying a BMW and a Tesla.

 

[Hippocampus]

Should mention there’s still parts of this country where electricity is a sometimes thing. My wife’s family share a hunting/fishing camp in rural NH. Sanitation is a outhouse (use a pick up to move it time to time, heat is a wood stove ( fueled from its surrounding land), water is a well and electricity is from a single wire that runs up the dirt road. For us and our scattered neighbors it’s a time to time thing so messy noisy liquified gas/diesel generators abound. Solar is non existent due to the trees. Nobody wants a lawn and the troubles that entails. Be silly in the mountains. In that environment liquid fuel vehicles are currently the only viable choice. In the winter snow mobiles are used to go shopping when the road is shut. As said most of our neighbors have one or two pickups. Most are bought used and babied for decades.

 

[rslifkin]

Cost is certainly a big issue for many, but that will improve with time (as EVs become more common in new car sales, there will be more inexpensive options). More time means more used EVs available as well.

In my case, since COVID has made me permanent work from home, I don't drive all that much anymore, about 6000 - 8000 miles per year. And a decent chunk of that is highway trips. The Admiral drives a bit more (not a lot), but her current daily driver is a Prius. So while I'm entirely sure we'll end up with an EV in the house at some point, there's no urgency behind it.

My current daily is a 20+ year old BMW 7 series, taking the attitude of "I'm not driving all that much, so I can drive something I like instead of something that everyone else says is practical". Although this car has turned out to be far more practical than I expected (other than mediocre gas mileage). I just ran the math and at this point, I'm putting no more than 400 gallons / year through it. EV payback would be pretty slow at that rate, so getting one would be mostly for non-financial reasons.

 

[O C Diver]

Now add to that the reality of renewable energy - the fastest growing segment of
power generation...

That means nothing as most other forms of energy aren't being allowed to be built.

According to the federal government for year 2021, renewable energy on the grid is 20%.

Of that 20%
Wind is 9.2
Hydro electric is 6.3
Solar is 2.8

Hard to see wind and solar reaching 50% of the grid in our lifetime.

Ted

 

[rslifkin]

Energy source for the grid varies a lot based on location. So EVs are not equal in all places emissions-wise.

For example, where I'm based in upstate NY, the breakdown for grid source reports as:

• 34.5% hydro
• 31.4% nuclear
• 25.9% natural gas
• 5.3% wind
• 1.9% biomass
• 0.7% solar

 

[Hippocampus]

Beyond mode of transportation big more immediate gains could (and to some extent are) being made by increasing efficiencies. Loses by inefficiencies are vey significant. Both at the end user end but also in capture, generation and transmission.

 

[Art]

Dear Boat, SUV, BMW, PU Truck, Motorcycle, Plane, Classic Car/Truck... etc, etc... luven folks! And, I obviously include myself in this group!!

Not to get into exact #'s... caus; that would take a congressional committee a year to complete, utilizing a band of Harvard mathematicians... but... here's a reality broadside; in order to enable a good ecospheric-condition as the future for civilization:

- International [global] number of needed to keep running liquid hydrocarbon burning engines [of all and every sort, very small to extremely large] = over 4 billon... and still increasing.

- Capability to replace that amount of engines in time to correct currently crumbling eco-systemic global conditions = not nearly good enough chance to save our "too quickly overheating" [dare I say burning] climate temperature conditions.

- Fact... Current atmospheric CO2 PPM stands at 419.28 PPM [ https://gml.noaa.gov/ccgg/trends/ ] and increases 2.5 +/- PPM annually. Earth's required CO2 PPM count, to keep its climate's "human" life enabling natural functions ongoing, was for nearly 12K years staying in the range of 225 to 275 PPM. Above that PPM range Earth heats. Below that PPM range Earth cools. Before the Industrial Revolution [IR] Earth's CO2 PPM range [for keeping its climate life-acceptable] was self regulating. Since IR began... humans have increasingly deregulated Earth's atmospheric CO2 PPM level. And, now, the most important factor to save human future-life on Earth = Quickly drop atmospheric CO2 PPM.

Soooo... It is true that all sorts of better [cleaner] ways to engine/motor power all sorts of items and to plant more trees and to alter livestock/vegetable/fruit farming... and, and, and... are extremely needed to keep working on and perfecting!

BUT!!! - Right Now the crisis of global climate warming MUST be answered [potentially, eventually solved] by pulling ample volume of CO2 out of atmosphere. That's the needed answer... of that and on that there is no question.

For well over two decades I've been working along with many, many others on how to answer this need. Suffice it to say... we're on the verge of being able to do so, and, in so doing we will create Full-Cycle, Carbon Neutral gasoline, diesel and jet fuels.

There's way too much to go into on this post regarding details of the paragraphs above. So... I herein go back to work to accomplish what I can for helping to "Save Earth's Ecosphere".

 

[KnotYet]

Nice switch but my reply was directed to moving 250 tons of dirt for metals used in EV car builds. Now, back to the costs of boating to AK.

That made me smile.

What you described is called 'mining'.
A 500/1 ore to refined product ratio is not only normal, it's considered pretty good.

 

[sunchaser]

That made me smile.

What you described is called 'mining'.
A 500/1 ore to refined product ratio is not only normal, it's considered pretty good.

Yes mining it is with processing, smelting and refining an integral part of metal production.

Although some high grade copper mines might be in the 20:1 ratio (5% ore grade) most large open pit copper mines will be in the 150 to 300:1 (0.3% to 0.75% ore grade range) category.

Tonnages of copper ore and waste mined can easily top 200,000 tons per day with new mines in the multi billion $ of construction capital. Different ratios occur for lithium, cobalt and nickel mines. Some underground lead mines are in the 15 to 20:1 ratio.

Making things like EVs, steel, ships, electric motors and belt buckles requires an enormous amount of energy. Windmills and solar panels are not considered for these 24/7 operations requiring huge 24/7 power generation from coal, nuclear, hydro, gas and oil.

An EV is the end product of this resource industry doing its job. How an EV is made is the crux of this issue. Elon gets it, investing heavily in a few mining opportunities.

Brian from Insequent could add much more.

 

[kthoennes]

There are now about 600 wind turbines operating in South Dakota. Each fiberglass blade weighs about 14 tons, or 28,000 lbs. (or more), at least in this region of the country. (I get that figure from a delivery of over 100 turbine blades to the Sioux Falls landfill in 2019.) Three blades per turbine. Each blade is around 125 feet long and costs around $125,000. They can last for a couple decades but most are replaced in about 10 years. Some companies are poking around with ideas for recycling, but at least for now, almost all of them get deposited in landfills and will sit there for a few thousand years. About 1,000 turbines were trashed in the last year, including some portion dropped at the (taxpayer-funded) landfill just outside Sioux Falls.

With the exception of maybe hydro, the idea that "renewable" power and EV is all green and environmentally benign and would make Greta Thunberg happy is just nonsense. There is no free lunch.

 

[O C Diver]

For well over two decades I've been working along with many, many others on how to answer this need. Suffice it to say... we're on the verge of being able to do so, and, in so doing we will create Full-Cycle, Carbon Neutral gasoline, diesel and jet fuels.

I love good fiction. You had me right to the point where you said Jet Fuel. FAA approval is likely measured in decades for things that don't exist. Then you would need to get engine manufacturers to sign off on fuel other than what their engines were certified for, which isn't going to happen (it's a liability thing). So if the magic fuel is developed and eventually approved by the FAA to meet the current thrust requirements of jet fuel, you're then down to the couple of decades to work all the old engine aircraft through retirement.

Ted