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Old 10-22-2020, 05:31 AM   #1
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Weird weather?

Greetings,
Is it just me or has the Atlantic weather been really strange this year? Take a look at hurricane Epsilon on NOAA. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/gra...?cone#contents
It started in the middle of the Atlantic. Didn't do much for the first week or so and NOW develops into a hurricane and heads off to Iceland.
This is not the first "wacky track" that's occurred and I've never seen such strange weather patterns (that I recall).
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Old 10-22-2020, 06:00 AM   #2
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I think you know the answer, RTF. No, not climate change...Armageddon..! Arrrgh, arrrgh..! Well...it's possible I suppose......nah, probably is climate change...
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Old 10-22-2020, 06:27 AM   #3
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So if we have a year without any hurricanes, would that be a bad thing, would they associate it with climate change?

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Old 10-22-2020, 06:56 AM   #4
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Greetings,
Mr. OC. Nope. A hurricane free year would be a good thing. Unfortunately, NOLA and parts of Texas have already had the heck beat out of them so far.
I suppose changing weather patterns and the regions they effect ARE part of the changing climate or are, in fact, changing climate. Just seems weird to me...
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Old 10-22-2020, 07:22 AM   #5
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What’s occurring fits the modeling. In science when you can predict the future you logically conclude your understanding has advanced. Regardless of the spin from some made made climate change has occurred and we are feeling it’s impact. People confuse weather (local/short term) with climate ( regional/long term). Yes, the modeling is still imprecise but has improved dramatically. My area is modeled as wetter and warmer. The last few month have been warmer but not wetter. However the last 5 years have been wetter and warmer. Unfortunately for the west and southwest modeling has been spot on.
As a mariner what has really screwed me up is the shoulder seasons. Used to be pretty definitive. Now spring and fall are a total crapshoot. That period of relative calmness when the WAVES coming off Africa aren’t that bad and the winter storms are gone or hasn’t yet started no longer exists. Seems cyclonic storms can appear nearly any old time.
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Old 10-22-2020, 07:52 AM   #6
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Ah yes, climate change. Better to call it 'cyclical weather patterns'. We can look at the tree ring and learn about wet and dry periods, good and bad growing seasons but, doesn't tell us a thing about the hurricane seasons. (dendrochronology)
We have reliable weather data for maybe 200 years but, other than tree rings, we dont have "squat" for the previous 1800 years and beyond.
All we can do is document the current weather as best we can so maybe future generations may make some sense out of it.
Until then, it gets cold in the winter and hot in the summer. Fall and spring have always been judged in hindsight. LOL
Anyone who thinks we can change the weather is a bigger fool than me.
Until then, we use technical terms such as "wetter than usual", "dryer than usual", "hotter than usual", "colder than usual" LOL
And if you ask a tribe of native Americans for a winter weather prediction, they will look at your wood pile. "Can never have enough wood"
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:03 AM   #7
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Greetings,
Mr. H. "Seems cyclonic storms can appear nearly any old time." That's pretty well what I'm referring to. Historically, cyclones were generated off the west coast of Africa but Epsilon just seemed to pop up out of nowhere. There was another recent disturbance that formed just east of the Yucatan peninsula. Didn't grow into anything but it seemed significant enough to be noted by NOAA.


I'm of the opinion that the MAJOR modifier is the sun and that's currently in a minimum of the 11 year cycle which accounts for the weather but NOT the climate.
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:20 AM   #8
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Quote:
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Greetings,
Mr. H. "Seems cyclonic storms can appear nearly any old time." That's pretty well what I'm referring to. Historically, cyclones were generated off the west coast of Africa but Epsilon just seemed to pop up out of nowhere. There was another recent disturbance that formed just east of the Yucatan peninsula. Didn't grow into anything but it seemed significant enough to be noted by NOAA.
I'm of the opinion that the MAJOR modifier is the sun and that's currently in a minimum of the 11 year cycle which accounts for the weather but NOT the climate.
I tend to agree with you..... but, people have to worry about something and the federal govt has to spend money on something and the media has to try and scare us with something.
At least 95% of the scary weather (for the US east coast) starts off the west coast of Africa near the equator.
We can not move the west coast of Africa nor the equator. At most we can say is, we have a better understanding of the weather patterns.
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:32 AM   #9
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Greetings,
Mr. OD. I don't really think NOAA is doing anything other than reporting on what conditions are and what they are forecast to do. No fear factor IMO.
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:36 AM   #10
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane



Storms frequently form in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as far east as the Cape Verde Islands
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:40 AM   #11
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Funny how perspectives change over time.

Remember when Big Tobacco had doctors and scientists to support their claim that smoking tobacco didn't cause cancer?

Big Oil actually supported the idea of human caused/facilitated climate change 30 years ago, but they have all modified their stances and are now denying it. They are even employing some of the same firms that the tobacco companies used to shape public opinion.

Don't believe me? Watch this short film from 1991 (by an oil company warning that the burning of fossil fuels will cause climate change) then start asking questions & finding your own answers before adopting those that are being spoon fed to you:

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Old 10-22-2020, 08:45 AM   #12
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Greetings,
Mr. OD. I don't really think NOAA is doing anything other than reporting on what conditions are and what they are forecast to do. No fear factor IMO.
Plenty of scientists are getting govt grants to study the weather and to agree with the govt's desires. Disagree with the govt and they lose their funding.

I have no fear. I will die soon. Until then, I am busy creating a huge carbon footprint so after I die, they will notice I am gone.
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:47 AM   #13
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Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atlantic_hurricane

Storms frequently form in the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the tropical Atlantic Ocean as far east as the Cape Verde Islands
Okay, so instead of 95%, 90%?
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:54 AM   #14
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More related to post #11:

https://www.scientificamerican.com/a...-40-years-ago/
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:57 AM   #15
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Melting of alpine glaciers has uncovered artifacts showing that people travelled and mined there 9000 years ag. Now those same areas are being uncovered again and the evidence of people being able to exist there is revealed. Weather patters do change. We just dont know as much as we think we do.

https://earthnewsreport.com/2020/10/...pine-glaciers/
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Old 10-22-2020, 08:57 AM   #16
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MurrayM, ANYTHING we do will change the earth's climate. There is no way around it.
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Old 10-22-2020, 09:00 AM   #17
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Melting of alpine glaciers has uncovered artifacts showing that people travelled and mined there 9000 years ag. Now those same areas are being uncovered and the evidence of people being able to exist there is revealed. Weather patters do change. We just dont know as much as we think we do.

https://earthnewsreport.com/2020/10/...pine-glaciers/
Shhhhh, those finding do not support the govt's and the "do gooders" desires.
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Old 10-22-2020, 09:02 AM   #18
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Please look at the work of the intentional panel on climate change.

https://www.ipcc.ch/

Climate (not weather) can be studied by much more than tree rings. Gaseous constitutes of the atmosphere via coring the cap ice, sedimentary rocks and silts as well as myriad biologic materials. We know much about atmospheric gas, temperature and humidity going back tens of thousands of years.
Post #7 is untrue. Solar behavior is accounted for in climate models and does not explain what is occurring.
Post #6 is correct in saying we don’t know much about day to day weather for the past ~400 years ago but incorrect in saying that we don’t know about regional and global climate. This has been studied and is fairly well understood.
There’s a very small segment of climatologists who are MMCC deniers just like there’s a segment of creationism advocates and flat earthers. But as stated earlier when 99%+ of scientists agree with this paradigm shift and the modeling is predictive its logical to agree with the premise.
Again please read the progress made in the successive reports of the IPCC. Please read and analyze the supporting documents . Feel free to then come back and critique their conclusions. I gave one quick citation but there are many. As you read them please look at the funding agencies and understand as with cigarettes that it’s important to understand how funding creates bias. Personally although there’s a general distrust in all our institutions I believe that the academics and governmental agencies are least likely to be biased. Also the scientists are least likely to misconstrue what’s going on.
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Old 10-22-2020, 09:10 AM   #19
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and it was reported, during the 90s we had a mini-ice age.
I was in Michigan attending MSU during the 70s. I can honestly tell you, winters were really cold. LOL
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Old 10-22-2020, 09:18 AM   #20
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and it was reported, during the 90s we had a mini-ice age.
I was in Michigan attending MSU during the 70s. I can honestly tell you, winters were really cold. LOL
That is science at work. Someone uncovers some evidence. posits a theory, and others will follow that trail of crumbs and it will live or die depending on whether the rest of the scientific community agrees or not.

The coming ice age theory withered and died. Human caused climate change has legs.
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