Originally Posted by Talonewo
November 18th I will depart Corpus Christi TX.... Lord willing (weather) I will go direct Dry Tortugas.... ultimate goal is the Chesapeake by early spring.
Sailing Weather - Marine Weather Forecasts for Sailors and Adventurers - PassageWeather
just started posting weather forecast for the 18th.... I'm expecting a 4 to 5 day passage, (pending wave direction we may stop and fish some of the oil derricks)... the current forecast has me thinking... looks like day one would be beam seas... day 2-5 not so bad... would you venture out a rough day one expecting two through 5 would get better?
No, I would not venture out expecting things to get better. I might wait a day until they actually are better. I would just based on the best knowledge I had and the most accurate information is always "the conditions right now." What if a day out to sea, it doesn't get better? My day one would either be delayed or closer to land with escape routes if it ceased being fun.
What size crew are you going to have for this trip? Is it enough to make a 4 to 5 day passage enjoyable, rather than feel like work?
When talking about going from CC to the Chesapeake, I think of two types of travel. One is PLEASURE boating. One is delivery. Now they can be mixed in context, but it's a potentially wonderful trip and I'd do what I could to keep it so. If I couldn't say a day or few days seemed like they'd be pleasurable, then I'd change plans a little. What if it takes you two weeks instead of 4 to 5 days to reach the Dry Tortugas? Could have a lot of fun in the two weeks. And starting a trip in a way that isn't enjoyable is sure not a great way to kick it off.
I would wait closer to the time to decide and stick with or change plans. While the forecast in the Gulf is pretty dependable three days or so out and not too bad for five or six, right now you're looking 7 to 12 days out and forecasts in that area, that far out, are very subject to change. You have the boat capable of handling five days of 6-8' seas, but that would most decidedly not be pleasure boating.
We boat, contrary to the recommendations of many, on schedules. However, we change those schedules regularly and always have alternate plans in mind. Your end of trip is very flexible as you say hopefully early spring. Well, doesn't sound like it really matters much if it's March, April, or May. So it doesn't matter if plans change and you get to Dry Tortugas on November 23 or November 30? Every day you spend on the trip should be one you can enjoy. Look at OC Diver's trip south. He's gotten "stuck" at some of the greatest places. Our longest delay yet on a planned trip was a week in the Destin/Panama City area waiting for the Gulf conditions to improve. What a wonderful week we had exploring an area we had no plans to explore at that time.