Tropical Storm ELSA

[High Wire]

Current track has it coming up the Florida West Coast.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_grap...d+png/205258_5day_cone_with_line_and_wind.png

 

[toocoys]

I'm really not ready for this season. I had enough last year.

 

[rgano]

We were hit so hard by Michael in 2018 that we went through 2019 and 2020 in a daze. Looks like I need to think about this one. Darn.

 

[Dougcole]

We were planning on a crossing to the Bahamas on the 6th. Not looking likely at this point, but keeping my fingers crossed.


I have not seen a forecast model that develops it past TS status.

 

[HTurner]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT5+shtml/141442.shtml?

 

[jleonard]

Now a hurricane

 

[OldDan1943]

I am a very selfish person when it comes to hurricanes.
I am in the Miami area and I hope Elsa moves further west.
I am getting a bit hurricane tired.
Currently, the marina basin is glass smooth.

 

[BandB]

Latest shows arriving to the West Coast of FL as only a 65 mph tropical storm thanks to Cuba, which shouldn't be a problem. Just need to be wary how many storms have hit land the past few years at greater speed than initial forecast.

Trip to Bahamas should still be fine, just a brief period of higher seas that I see but a day earlier or later not a problem. Meanwhile we show 1' seas from Antibes to Girona tomorrow. We do still follow and worry about US weather though as home and businesses. Memories of Sally from last year, sure have west coast and panhandle sales of lumber and generators and grills high.

 

[Hippocampus]

St. Vincent got whacked. 43 homes and cop shop. Have friends in the water at Rodney Bay. Not as bad but the roof left the local school. Some boat damage.

 

[High Wire]

The estimated track for FL landfall has moved slightly North to around Tarpon Springs.

 

[Group9]

Latest shows arriving to the West Coast of FL as only a 65 mph tropical storm thanks to Cuba, which shouldn't be a problem. Just need to be wary how many storms have hit land the past few years at greater speed than initial forecast.

Trip to Bahamas should still be fine, just a brief period of higher seas that I see but a day earlier or later not a problem. Meanwhile we show 1' seas from Antibes to Girona tomorrow. We do still follow and worry about US weather though as home and businesses. Memories of Sally from last year, sure have west coast and panhandle sales of lumber and generators and grills high.

Don’t believe them. They told us Zeta would hit as a Cat 1 a day before it hit us as a Cat 3. The surge was several feet higher than predicted during as well.

The guys figuring the tracks seem to be getting better at it. The guys figuring the intensity are getting worse at it.

 

[jleonard]

The estimated track for FL landfall has moved slightly North to around Tarpon Springs.

Looks like the eye will pass over my house.

 

[rgano]

I am a very selfish person when it comes to hurricanes.
I am in the Miami area and I hope Elsa moves further west.
I am getting a bit hurricane tired.
Currently, the marina basin is glass smooth.

I am all over that being "selfish" idea. After Hurricane Michael, we here in the Panhandle deserve a little selfishness in this matter. Go hit somewhere else.....

 

[High Wire]

Looks like the eye will pass over my house.

It’s slowly moving west with each update.

 

[Swa]

Geez! Tarpon Springs? Not a good thing for into the mystic. Time to get on my horse and run more lines among many other things. Not looking forward to this again. Good luck to all in its track. Praying its not a nasty one

 

[DCDC]

We left Clearwater Thursday morning. Now anchored west of Panama City and will keep moving west to Alabama. Fast traveling for us. Had to skip Appalachicola, their tasty beer, seafood and July 4th fireworks.

Wonder what will happen to the neglected/derelict boats on anchors? A few more in the mangroves?

We were anchored near Gulfport a few weeks ago when we woke up to a 35 knot squall at 2am. Looked out the pilot house windows and a 35’ sailboat with no one aboard was rapidly dragging down on us. We started the engines and maneuvered to port while the sailboat dragged by 15’ to starboard. It eventually stopped about 300’ downwind as the depth shallowed and the squall played out. Saw dozens of potential mangrove bait between St. James City and Clearwater.

 

[jleonard]

Geez! Tarpon Springs? Not a good thing for into the mystic. Time to get on my horse and run more lines among many other things. Not looking forward to this again. Good luck to all in its track. Praying its not a nasty one

Del you're in a pretty good spot. Just a few extra lines and fenders and I wouldn't fret too much.

 

[Group9]

I am all over that being "selfish" idea. After Hurricane Michael, we here in the Panhandle deserve a little selfishness in this matter. Go hit somewhere else.....

A few weeks after Katrina hit us, we were in the track of Rita and everyone was saying they hoped it didn’t hit us. My feeling at the time was that we were the best place in the world it could hit as there was absolutely nothing left to destroy.

But, yeah, I’m not ready for another bad one yet. We had a cat 3 last year, and it felt like a bad thunderstorm in comparison to Katrina.

 

[OldDan1943]

The latest from NOAA folks.....
Elsa will skirt the edge of FL's mainland before it heads up the west coast of FL.

2 slips south of me, they dropped one of their anchors straight down but did not double the lines. Maybe they were having trouble with their windless?

My dock lines are always doubled. Just need some adjustment, as necessary.

 

[Swa]

Hey my man Jay Lenard! I hope your right. Never know about these damn things though. I added more lines and fendered up yesterday as well pulled the dingy, eisenglass and bimini. Not so much fun with the sun beating on you. The real joy is putting things back afterwards. I also worry some about the idiots around me that do nothing to prepare. A good tidal surge could push them up into my little corner. Yes I'm insured and in a pretty good spot. I still worry some as I have been through many storms and have seen what they can do. Fingers crossed. Jay I noticed your back in NPR. Lets get together with our women and eat a meal.

 

[neworleansrich]

A couple of years back one would be happy to be right on the forecast track line.

If you were on the track line, the storm would always find a way to weave or dodge off the line, but NOAA is getting better. It seems the track forecasts are spot on. Their intensity forecast abilities are much less accurate. Hopefully this one just falls apart.

 

[Seevee]

These hurricanes are always hard to predict. Who know what will happen at the last minute, so there's an argument to be prepared.


Jay, be careful, looks like Tarpon Springs will be really close to the eye. Here in the St. Petersburg area, we are preparing for a 5 ft surge, which is a possibility, especially close to a new moon high tide. The high on Wednesday morning will be something to pay attention to.


I'm boarding up doors. Put 4 anchors on the boat, opposite of the dock and will pull the boat off by 6 feet so the tide won't take it over the dock. Should be ok.... maybe......


However, hauling those anchors out over the much by hand is a hell of a job. Wore me out.

 

[Constellation1]

Anyone south of me (Sarasota) encounter the storm yet?

 

[OldDan1943]

I think NOAA keeps predicting the storm will hit further north.

 

[jleonard]

These hurricanes are always hard to predict. Who know what will happen at the last minute, so there's an argument to be prepared.


Jay, be careful, looks like Tarpon Springs will be really close to the eye. Here in the St. Petersburg area, we are preparing for a 5 ft surge, which is a possibility, especially close to a new moon high tide. The high on Wednesday morning will be something to pay attention to.
.

Not too worried. I left everything stowed or tied up as we just got back to Fl last thursday. Got generator gas and vehicles are full and 400 rolls of TP (only kidding) so we should be fine. After all I am 12 feet above sea level LOL

 

[jleonard]

Hey my man Jay Lenard! I hope your right. Jay I noticed your back in NPR. Lets get together with our women and eat a meal.

Yes Del that sounds like a plan, maybe week of the 19th if that works. I'll give you a call late next week and we can figure it out.

 

[ranger58sb]

Anyone south of me (Sarasota) encounter the storm yet?

We're in Ft. Myers, mostly only sporadic rainfall so far.

-Chris

 

[AZ2Loop]

Anyone south of me (Sarasota) encounter the storm yet?

We're in Ft. Myers, mostly only sporadic rainfall so far.

-Chris

Fort Myers Beach. It is finally getting windy/gusty here at almost 6PM. The rest of the day has been rainy and calm, with winds usually just 10-12 MPH most of the day at our marina. Slightly stronger gusts now, but still not bad at all. Good luck, Constellation, as it heads your way. Hopefully it will not pick up too much here or there. I think by about midnight tonight, winds are supposed to start dropping back down here, so 6 more hours or so for us.

 

[Constellation1]

Thanks everyone. I’m onboard in Punta Gorda now. We are in the outer bands, and it’s not too bad. I wanted to add another line and fender and will ride it out here as I’m concerned about the surge too. Stay safe.

 

[Seevee]

Here in St. Pete... virtually nothing, minimal winds no rain... the calm before the storm.


Gut feeling it won't be so bad... a bit off shore so winds won't be that bad and moving fast. Surge is the biggie, and don't think it will be worse than Ida... but boarded up all doors, put the boat out a bit with 9 lines and 4 anchors to hold it. We'll see.


Hope everyone stays safe. That's the important thing.