Trawler Demand Post Covid 19

[N4061]

The other day I joined a discussion regarding the demand for boats and RV's resulting in part from the COVID 19 and what the post COVID 19 may look like. It was interesting to listen to a few "experts" (OK, lets just say they are into sales and resales) who all predict the recent surge will not last forever. While I have to agree, what was unclear was how the fall out would look for trawlers versus other types of boats.

For what its worth (and some discussion) my personal view of the future for trawlers remains positive and in demand. I attribute a large percentage of the boating increase in demand to people "entering" the boating world and leaning towards cabin cruisers, go fast powerboats and sailboats. Trawlers are relatively a "love or hate it" style of boating designed for spending time aboard and moving slow, not everyone is cut out for this life style especially the younger crowd.

I project that post COVID a fair percentage of "newbies" to boating will place their boats for sale as soon as the all green is given to air travel and hotels are again opened for business. When you consider the percentage of trawlers to the balance of all styles of boat its relatively small thus few "newbies" to impact the projected resale increase. While their will be some newer boats going up sale (great opportunity for perspective buyers) most will stay with their owners.

So what is the "take away" from all this, I would say if you are in the market for a new build or newer boat you may want to sit tight a year for a possible great deal on the horizon and save yourself some serious money.

As always I welcome others to chime in and provide their perspective as most of the country deals with the winter weather and away from their boats.

John T
N4050, N4061, N3522, Helmsman 38E - Former Owners

 

[O C Diver]

I don't see the departure of new boat owners that quick unless the economy cools off. In the normal scenario of new boat purchases being financed, there would be a lot of up side down boats relative to financing. I would also expect a large percentage of new boaters to take 2 or 3 seasons to decide they want out.

As far as the buying trend, I would expect it to fall off as those that haven't bought may have more recreational options.

Ted

 

[magna 6882]

I think that working close the the end on the baby boomers a lot of folks jumped off the work wagon. Some rv manufactures have there entire 2021 production already allocated and are now working on 2022. I found myself unable to go to the office due to social contact worries when covid started so found myself unintentionally sliding into retirement. I think there are more out there like me that decided to go play. I expect some to change plans or regret what they did so some inventory may come up but most likely will be sold by word of mouth.

 

[mvweebles]

This is one of this impossible to predict topics with endless "on the other hand...." type statements.

If you buy into the K-Curve recovery where, in general, the wealthier class did pretty well this year coupled with Boomer demographics, trawlers and rvs should do pretty well for a while.

I think it was Harry Truman (US President in late 1940s for my Oz neighbors) who said "what I wouldn't give for a one-handed economist!"

Peter

 

[Hippocampus]

Been shopping. So have been looking at last 2 years of ask/sold and current ask. Admittedly for a very small subset of boats ( small ocean capable long range FD). Current ask seems grossly inflated compared with recent history. Believe subset of similar buyers are couples able to work remotely or retired or on long sabbatical. Most with large portion of net worth in the markets. Believe markets inflated due to low interest rates so very low returns on bonds, high risk in commercial space REITS and like investments. So at some point a market correction will occur or at least plateau. Those invested in safe relatively high income (dividends/interest) vehicles will continue to buy boats. Those who have been focused on capital gains will drop out. At that point in this subset of vessels both ask and sold will return to historical levels. Suspect a reasonable likelihood of this occurrence either in late first or early second quarter of this year due to collapse of consumer demand or last quarter 2021/first of 2022 when bonds become more attractive. Believe there’s slightly less distortion of this subset of vessels than boats aimed at other usage but haven’t done a similar exercise in that it hasn’t been my focus.

 

[CaptTom]

Trawlers have always been a niche market. The question is, will that niche get larger or smaller?

Looking around the marina, I see a lot of new boaters going for day boats. That fits well with the demands of work and family. Trawlers have always been more of a retiree thing.

The question becomes, do the folks currently running around in go-fast fishing boats with three, 450HP engines look forward to the day they can go longer distances on a comfortable boat with classic lines?

I'm thinking not. The designs we longed for in our youth reflected what we saw back then. What the younger generation are seeing are fast cruisers with fold-out platforms all over the sides and transoms. Plum stems and "Euro" designs. Lots of outboards.

Is this a bad thing? Probably not. There are some really convenient and comfortable new designs which will probably stand the test of time, and be improved on. They may not look like the sort of commercial fishing boats we envied in our younger days, but they'll get the job done for those few who graduate from day fishing to long-duration cruising.

 

[moparharn]

I have been looking for four years. I feel the market is and has been a sellers market. I also think trawlers are a niche market and that trawlers in the 36-42 foot range will continue to be strong. Trawlers are seen as economical and more easily operated, and this appeals to the younger crowd. The smaller trawlers are also something that newcomers are less afraid of their ability to master.

What has been a surprise is how firm some trawler prices are. I have come across more than a few boats that I made offers on three years ago that are still for sale at the same or close to the same price.

I believe the large gas powered cruiser market has been, and will continue to be in big trouble. Identical boats in diesel do a little better, but similar length trawlers seem to do quite well. My point is this- Bertram 42's seem to have dropped from $135,000 to $60,000 in the last seven years (roughly and in the Michigan area) Currently Diesel is around $65 and gas around $40. The 46's have seen similar changes. Now make the same comparison to GB, Mainship, and a few other brand name production trawlers in the same size and time frame. I do not see the drop. Trawlers seem to have a lasting appeal and have been impacted by trends less than cruisers. My 2 cents.

 

[READY]

And an alternative perspective as to why moderately priced resale trawlers may not see any massive price crash (unless the economy goes into a true tailspin):
In SoCal waterfront property or even near waterfront property is multiple millions. Even condos are $1.5mil and up. HOA and/or maint. cost are easily $1.5k-3k.
Decent 40-50 foot trawlers or similar can be found under $200k. Slip plus diver, maint can be $2k or so.

Point being that while admittedly boats are a horrible economic investment it can get you the waterfront lifestyle at a small percentage of the real estate cost. So for either families that already own homes or younger folks who prefer or are forced to rent a boat is still a pretty nice waterfront condo. We all know it comes with pros and cons but clearly the pros prevail for many of us.

Happy New Year to all!

 

[rslifkin]

I believe the large gas powered cruiser market has been, and will continue to be in big trouble. Identical boats in diesel do a little better, but similar length trawlers seem to do quite well. My point is this- Bertram 42's seem to have dropped from $135,000 to $60,000 in the last seven years (roughly and in the Michigan area) Currently Diesel is around $65 and gas around $40. The 46's have seen similar changes. Now make the same comparison to GB, Mainship, and a few other brand name production trawlers in the same size and time frame. I do not see the drop. Trawlers seem to have a lasting appeal and have been impacted by trends less than cruisers. My 2 cents.

I definitely agree with that assessment. The people who want boats that can get up and plane (or care if they can) are often the people who don't want older boats, so the market for older planing boats is definitely harder than trawlers. And once you get above 35-ish feet, the market for gas engines is pretty tough. I personally figure my own boat would be a nightmare to sell if I ever want to. I'd be very lucky to see $40 - 50k for it, and even then, it could potentially take several years to sell.

 

[moparharn]

Another point that relates to the last few posts. Last week I inquired about a very nice gas power FDMY that had been on the market for 8 months or so. The broker informed that the boat was under contract, but that the survey showed the low hour 502's had compression problems. I was thinking "oh boy, glad I avoided that inquiry". The broker then went on to say that the new owners were not too concerned about the compression because they intend to have it towed down to their new port and use it as a condo. This is not the first time I have been hearing this, which is to say that a boat is purchased not as a boat but as a water condo. I am not sure if this says more about the real estate market or the boat market? I think it is the former. Bill