A special warning to lurkers and non-boat owners...

[mvweebles]

A few threads above this is on high fuel prices. Inflation is up and apparently not as transient as was forecast. The Fed has clearly indicated interest rates are headed north, and wages are not keeping pace with inflation. WSJ had an interesting article this week that due to increase of mortgage rates from 3% a year ago to around 4% now, the payment on a $375k mortgage is $225/mo higher. Haven't even gotten to global uncertainty and nervous equity markets have resulted in 2022 losses to many 401ks.

Over the past two years there have been dozens of threads about slim pickings for buyers due to exorbitant boat prices and meager inventory. While I fully understand the currency of life skews towards time over money as you age, seems like the next 6-12 months may be a good time to sit on sidelines of you're in the market for an RV or boat. As investors say, "keep your powder dry."

What say others? Are the gathering headwinds strong enough to finally moderate or turn a white hot boat market?

Peter

 

[JLD]

There is no right or wrong answer about when to buy a boat, as we all have different lives and dreams. Some folks dream of cruising full time while many others may choose to do it a day, week, or month at a time.

I have had smaller boats on and off over the years. Am currently a non-boat owner as I sold my trailerable sailboat two years ago as I was not using it. We will have our next boat when the time is ready and our finances allow it. Boating is a part of my life, but nowhere as important as my wife (30+ years of marriage) and my adult daughter. Before my daughter started college we made the commitment to pay for all of her college as we didn’t want her to be encumbered with college loans while starting her career. My wife and I are not wealthy, but we are comfortable with our lives.

A couple of year ago, we found that as a family activity we liked off-roading. It was a no-brainer for us to buy three Polaris Ace UTV’s (single seat side-by-sides) and an aluminum trailer to haul these toys. We have tons of fun with week long trips with these toys.

Fast-forward to 18 months ago and my wife and I decided to build our dream retirement home in southern Delaware. We purchased a 7/8 acre lot and learned more about septic systems, wells, and crawl-spaces than we ever imagined. [FONT=&quot]?[/FONT] When we contracted the build on our house, one year ago this week, our financials went into a lock. No more big-ticket purchases until we were in the house (should finally happen at the end of this month.)

Will I eventually get a boat? Yes, and I am planning to seriously start looking in the Fall, as I am considering retiring (just turned 62). It will be smaller and less expensive than I originally thought, but the goal is to be back on the water.

If for some reason I can’t get a boat, will I regret not doing so sooner? Absolutely not, as boating is part of my life, but nowhere near the top.

Jim

 

[psneeld]

I dumped mine for dirt cheap....so deals are out there depending on your wants.

Finally had enough for various reasons including fighting insurance, changes in family priorities, fuel (2nd time I got out just before a big hike in diesel, and like Jay...have seen a lot by water...now to places inaccessible by water.

No regrets. Will still have a tin boat for back bay cruisin' and fishin'....

Rack up enough experience and getting an invite to cruise for short or longer is no problem to satisfy any itch.

Yep.... gonna be a tough few boating years the way things are going...then again can all change in a flash. Feel apprehensive for the boaters just retiring now or soon....depends on expectations though.

 

[JLD]

A few threads above this is on high fuel prices. Inflation is up and apparently not as transient as was forecast. The Fed has clearly indicated interest rates are headed north, and wages are not keeping pace with inflation. WSJ had an interesting article this week that due to increase of mortgage rates from 3% a year ago to around 4% now, the payment on a $375k mortgage is $225/mo higher. Haven't even gotten to global uncertainty and nervous equity markets have resulted in 2022 losses to many 401ks.

Peter

I have been watching the mortgage market for the past year and it has been a little stressful. Twelve months ago, when we got the construction loan for our home build, regular mortgage rates were under 3%. We will probably get a 45 day lock on a mortgage loan tomorrow. Dropped of some updated financial information with the mortgage specialist last Friday and the rate was 4.125%. Given the global uncertainty, I hope I can lock in this rate tomorrow.

Jim

 

[JLD]

I think this will likely be a good Summer for new boat sales (lots of pre-orders), but I think over-all the boat and RV market is returning back to normal.

As I drive past dealerships (including a couple this past weekend) I see much more inventory on the lots than I have seen in the last two years. I am even beginning to see some new boats at the boat dealerships, although I would guess many of these are pre-orders waiting for a Spring delivery.

While most folks who have purchased small boats and RV's the last two years are folks who enjoy boating and rving, there were many folks who purchased because of Covid and were looking for things to do with the family. I have seen a lot of the smaller boats come up for sale. What is interesting, however, is that a lot of these Covid buyers seem to have put very little down and paid outrageous prices, much higher than MSRP. Now, after two years ownership, they are trying to sell their boats for what they still own, resulting in prices that are at or above the original MSRP. It will be very interesting to see what prices on these boat do, especially as we almost certainly have higher gas prices this Summer.

Jim

 

[bowball]

A few threads above this is on high fuel prices. Inflation is up and apparently not as transient as was forecast. The Fed has clearly indicated interest rates are headed north, and wages are not keeping pace with inflation. WSJ had an interesting article this week that due to increase of mortgage rates from 3% a year ago to around 4% now, the payment on a $375k mortgage is $225/mo higher. Haven't even gotten to global uncertainty and nervous equity markets have resulted in 2022 losses to many 401ks.

Over the past two years there have been dozens of threads about slim pickings for buyers due to exorbitant boat prices and meager inventory. While I fully understand the currency of life skews towards time over money as you age, seems like the next 6-12 months may be a good time to sit on sidelines of you're in the market for an RV or boat. As investors say, "keep your powder dry."

What say others? Are the gathering headwinds strong enough to finally moderate or turn a white hot boat market?

Peter

In fairness Peter, today’s mortgage rates are still below the average of the 2000, 2010, and 2020 so far decade. We are just comparing today to a brief earlier period where there was worry about covid induced recession created by high unemployment, etc. by all historic measures today’s rates are very low.

I wonder what inflation and fuel prices will do to new boat prices.


I bought a boat and I don’t really care (theoretically at least) about changes in its value, as the price I paid was the value to me of the pleasure I would get out of it. The fact that has gone up or down due to market forces doesn’t affect my view of whether what I paid was worth it to me. And as I don’t view it as an investment and didn’t need to rely on getting a similar price of I ever sold it insulates me from what prices are today. If that makes sense. Consequently I don’t regret my purchase. If I use the boat as much as I intend to it will be worth every penny.

 

[mvweebles]

In fairness Peter, today’s mortgage rates are still below the average of the 2000, 2010, and 2020 so far decade. We are just comparing today to a brief earlier period where there was worry about covid induced recession created by high unemployment, etc. by all historic measures today’s rates are very low.

I wonder what inflation and fuel prices will do to new boat prices.


I bought a boat and I don’t really care (theoretically at least) about changes in its value, as the price I paid was the value to me of the pleasure I would get out of it. The fact that has gone up or down due to market forces doesn’t affect my view of whether what I paid was worth it to me. And as I don’t view it as an investment and didn’t need to rely on getting a similar price of I ever sold it insulates me from what prices are today. If that makes sense. Consequently I don’t regret my purchase. If I use the boat as much as I intend to it will be worth every penny.

I have argued several times on this forum that waiting for a market change is a fools errand - the death meter doesn't pause.

Time will tell. The last two years have been extraordinary for boat sales. Perhaps a sellers-market is the new normal, but I doubt it. I don't think it takes an economist to see there clouds of change gathering on the horizon. Not a broken bubble, just a return to normal.

Peter

 

[bowball]

I have argued several times on this forum that waiting for a market change is a fools errand - the death meter doesn't pause.

Time will tell. The last two years have been extraordinary for boat sales. Perhaps a sellers-market is the new normal, but I doubt it. I don't think it takes an economist to see there clouds of change gathering on the horizon. Not a broken bubble, just a return to normal.

Peter

I’m sure that you are correct, with timing less certain. The question then is should it matter? How do you know how to bottom tick it? How much enjoyment do you give up while waiting?

What if we are wrong or it takes several more years? I have friends that keep waiting for a stock market crash to invest, and in the meantime it goes up so whatever correction they were waiting for becomes in absolute returns insignificant. Or if the correction does occur they are too scared it will go lower so they never get back in and miss the subsequent rally. To me, therefore, the best approach is to buy what you can afford to lose, but at least be partially in the market. Balancing the risk of losing on capital versus the risk of losing out on experience; we each need to decide that tradeoff.

 

[ksanders]

I turn 60 this week.

I have 14 twelve hour shifts left in my 38 year career.

Starting my cruising life with no debt, good pensions, and a nice boat to call home.

I did what others expected of me my entire adult life. Raised a family and bought my ex a very nice house.

Gentlemen, now it's my turn.

My ex is financially secure, as am I. Life is good and I am hoping for a solid 15 years before my body calendar says it's time to slow down.

Only time will tell where I end up. First winter will be in La Paz. We'll see where it goes from there.

 

[Slowmo]

I don't know anyone who retired who's said they wished they'd kept working. I pulled the plug at age 60, that was 4 years ago and I certainly don't regret it. I'm just glad we had a bit of 'freedom' before CoVID.

Good financial planning before retiring is a major contributor to a successful retirement. You don't want to be worried about money every day.

 

[NEtrawler58]

My perspective may be a little different. I'm currently 63. I have a boat that I enjoy but certainly not for long range cruising. Good enough to enjoy a week or 2 with a mix of anchoring and marinas. Anyway, I have a good retirement fund from a lifetime or working hard and saving and investing. I assume I'll probably never spend it all unless I spend extravagantly. Why am I still working? Covid has kept me working from my home the last couple years. I used to do a lot of business travel but that has mostly stopped too. The bulk of my work week is free time. I'm sort of retired with a paycheck. I know it's not the same as cutting ties completely, but right now I think I should just continue to get paid while working very little. Arthritis and other health issue have slowed me down a lot in the last 10 years, but otherwise no major problems. Thoughts?

 

[socalrider]

My perspective may be a little different. I'm currently 63. I have a boat that I enjoy but certainly not for long range cruising. Good enough to enjoy a week or 2 with a mix of anchoring and marinas. Anyway, I have a good retirement fund from a lifetime or working hard and saving and investing. I assume I'll probably never spend it all unless I spend extravagantly. Why am I still working? Covid has kept me working from my home the last couple years. I used to do a lot of business travel but that has mostly stopped too. The bulk of my work week is free time. I'm sort of retired with a paycheck. I know it's not the same as cutting ties completely, but right now I think I should just continue to get paid while working very little. Arthritis and other health issue have slowed me down a lot in the last 10 years, but otherwise no major problems. Thoughts?

Are you happy? I enjoy my work & find it very meaningful, as do a lot of folks here. Certainly I understand the appeal of casting off & heading for the horizon, but that's only one of a million things one can do. I feel like it's something I'd like to do at some point once the kids are moved out, but it's not the only thing.

I'm also not 100% sold on the full retirement thing. I've got my own consulting and advisory practice, and I could see the "retired with a paycheck" option as well down the line.

 

[NEtrawler58]

Thanks for understanding. I think if I had a retirement plan that I wanted to execute asap (doing The Loop for example) I would leave tomorrow. But I'm pretty happy with my life and don't have huge changes planned at least at the moment. We will do some traveling this year but I don't have to leave work for that. I should also mention that if I had to get up and go to an office every morning, I would have left a while ago. As it's almost 10:30 here, I've had breakfast, checked some emails, worked out a bit. About to shower and get dressed soon, but that is jeans and a sweatshirt and boat shoes. I'll do some work around the house today and check emails occasionally. I don't imagine retirement would be dramatically different right now, except I wouldn't be receiving a paycheck and benefits.

 

[bowball]

Thanks for understanding. I think if I had a retirement plan that I wanted to execute asap (doing The Loop for example) I would leave tomorrow. But I'm pretty happy with my life and don't have huge changes planned at least at the moment. We will do some traveling this year but I don't have to leave work for that. I should also mention that if I had to get up and go to an office every morning, I would have left a while ago. As it's almost 10:30 here, I've had breakfast, checked some emails, worked out a bit. About to shower and get dressed soon, but that is jeans and a sweatshirt and boat shoes. I'll do some work around the house today and check emails occasionally. I don't imagine retirement would be dramatically different right now, except I wouldn't be receiving a paycheck and benefits.

Sounds like you have a great situation. Maybe use the free time to create a longer term calendar of what you’d like to have accomplished in six months, one, three and five years, and start planning.

 

[RT Firefly]

Greetings,
Mr. NE. You've got a boat that you use when and for how long you want. Suits you, so what's not to like?

 

[socalrider]

Yeah, nothing wrong with that NE!

A big goal of mine is having "$*&@ you money". Knowing that you can at any moment decide you've had enough & quit is incredibly liberating. As an independent consultant with plenty of clients I can do that now to individual clients (not that I've ever had to) but I would like to be able to drop everything at a moment's notice, even if I never do.

 

[NEtrawler58]

Yeah, nothing wrong with that NE!

A big goal of mine is having "$*&@ you money". Knowing that you can at any moment decide you've had enough & quit is incredibly liberating. As an independent consultant with plenty of clients I can do that now to individual clients (not that I've ever had to) but I would like to be able to drop everything at a moment's notice, even if I never do.

Thanks, I do have that money now and reached it a couple years ago. It is very liberating to know that you don't HAVE to work and you can walk away at any time if you want to.

 

[Moonfish]

Here's an interesting Facebook observation by our friends Paul and Sheryl Shard of Distant Shores (posted 3 hours ago). While I agree with the "go now" philosophy, there's also something to be said for "it's never too late"...

https://www.facebook.com/DistantShoresTV/

 

[Shrew]

My perspective may be a little different. I'm currently 63. I have a boat that I enjoy but certainly not for long range cruising. Good enough to enjoy a week or 2 with a mix of anchoring and marinas. Anyway, I have a good retirement fund from a lifetime or working hard and saving and investing. I assume I'll probably never spend it all unless I spend extravagantly. Why am I still working? Covid has kept me working from my home the last couple years. I used to do a lot of business travel but that has mostly stopped too. The bulk of my work week is free time. I'm sort of retired with a paycheck. I know it's not the same as cutting ties completely, but right now I think I should just continue to get paid while working very little. Arthritis and other health issue have slowed me down a lot in the last 10 years, but otherwise no major problems. Thoughts?

There is no wrong way to do it. However, this reads like you're filling your otherwise, unfilled time. I'd rather fill my life with my passions and pursue those. Then when work gets in the way, fix THAT problem

 

[NEtrawler58]

It's still winter here, so boating right now is not an option.

 

[Simi 60]

It's still winter here, so boating right now is not an option.

You know, people do live in places where boating is an all year thing.
If you are retired, what's stopping you?

 

[NEtrawler58]

You know, people do live in places where boating is an all year thing.
If you are retired, what's stopping you?

I am not retired, but even if I was, I'm not likely to be a live-aboard or move to the south. Maybe someday, but I actually like New England. It's not a bad place to live, regardless of what some may think. There are pros and cons for anywhere you want to call home. But aside from that, What is everyone doing to "live the dream" or "chase your passion". If you like full-time boating, that's great. Not criticizing it, but it doesn't mean it's right for everyone. My day today was a light workout in my basement, then a long walk to/from a local pub with my wife for lunch, then returned home to watch a Netflix movie in my home theater. I'm not climbing Mt. Everest, but still a pretty good day in my book. (Good movie btw. "Against The Ice" based on true events)

 

[socalrider]

My day today was a light workout in my basement, then a long walk to/from a local pub with my wife for lunch, then returned home to watch a Netflix movie in my home theater. I'm not climbing Mt. Everest, but still a pretty good day in my book.

A lot of people never get a day that good in their lives. Even wealthy people.

 

[Lookin2Loop]

:Love it!

 

[TomCat]

As Warren Miller used to say, "If you wait until next year to live your dream, you'll just be another year older when you do."

 

[Hippocampus]

Different boats for different folks. Totally agree people and their dreams are different. To speak against someone’s dream is ridiculous and frankly insulting in my view. Same with “what ifs” Still there’s a bunch of people scared to jump in the pool who once they do can’t understand why they waited.
I recently did everything wrong. Bought a boat at the top of the market. Bought SD instead of FD with fuel through the roof and going higher. Stuck in New England for the winter and I love New England but hate cold. But the dream remains. I’m a happy camper and looking forward to throwing up the anchor again and resuming long term cruising.

 

[Slider70]

I go with FT Fireflly's comment earlier on. Buy the boat you can afford. I wanted a large boat to cruise with but couldn't afford one. So I started 60 years ago with a 16' canoe and did lots of camping with the family. Then a home built 17' boat run about. Worked our way to 25' old wood Christ craft, then 32' woody, on to 41' woody, then 36' glass and now 38' Bayliner. I loved everyone of them. Our family had great adventures in everyone of them. Adventures just changed with the size of the boat but all loved.

 

[Bryant]

Wait and see

To the wait and see advocates...


Your body calendar will not wait and see.

It is going to age at it's own rate regardless of the world around it.

My large regret is that I waited till I was 61 to buy my trawler. Should have purchased earlier. More years to upgrade and use.

 

[Captain DJ]

Worked like the Dickens from 16-30 and then made it big in investments (booming '90s) but finally got talked into trading with leverage and got the wind knocked out of me while I was delivering a trawler from NYC to Miami. Dot Com Bubble burst and after 24 years of saving and investing, I had only been using a margin account for 6 months to make it to $1 Million before 30. That cruise/delivery cost me more than the value of the vessel. But I was stubborn and instead of buying the New-ish N46 we wanted, I settled for a GB-42-125 woody for about 5% of the initial outlay.
We stated we were "taking our retirement in installments" and rented out our home to a newly divorced boating buddy and told him we would be back in "2-10 years" and it ended up being closer to the two than the ten, but it was awesome cruising the Great Loop (members 252 in GLCA) and attending many trawlerfests and living aboard and getting some 8,000 miles under our keel. Then family issues and a skinny cruising kitty made us get back at it and now we are ready to do the West Coast this time in our mid-late 50s. No more waiting for the perfect tomorrow that may never come.

Still stubborn and even with the market and investments being down, the world on the brink of WW III and all the shenanigans of the WEF and CCP with regards to Covid and TNI, I think it is time to go before they trap us to qualifying for freedoms with a social credit score. It is time to just go. This all reminds me of one of my role models :

Sterling Hayden

“To be truly challenging, a voyage, like a life, must rest on a firm foundation of financial unrest. Otherwise, you are doomed to a routine traverse, the kind known to yachtsmen who play with their boats at sea... "cruising" it is called. Voyaging belongs to seamen, and to the wanderers of the world who cannot, or will not, fit in. If you are contemplating a voyage and you have the means, abandon the venture until your fortunes change. Only then will you know what the sea is all about.

"I've always wanted to sail to the south seas, but I can't afford it." What these men can't afford is not to go. They are enmeshed in the cancerous discipline of "security." And in the worship of security we fling our lives beneath the wheels of routine - and before we know it our lives are gone.

What does a man need - really need? A few pounds of food each day, heat and shelter, six feet to lie down in - and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment. That's all - in the material sense, and we know it. But we are brainwashed by our economic system until we end up in a tomb beneath a pyramid of time payments, mortgages, preposterous gadgetry, playthings that divert our attention for the sheer idiocy of the charade.

The years thunder by, The dreams of youth grow dim where they lie caked in dust on the shelves of patience. Before we know it, the tomb is sealed.

Where, then, lies the answer? In choice. Which shall it be: bankruptcy of purse or bankruptcy of life? ”
― Sterling Hayden, Wanderer

 

[psneeld]

Quoted from above...

" and some form of working activity that will yield a sense of accomplishment."

and there in lies why some may never fully retire or seek post retirement jobs that fulfill that sense of accomplishment.

I feel sorry for those that never felt the tops of human accomplishment while working or fulfilled the sense of adventure.

Then again...being forced into early retirement, finding something that did both to some degree was a trick but luckily I found it.

Then after leaving that job...there are days where I crave the high octane job and the sense of great accomplishment...fortunately with age, wisdom corrals what the body would be challenged to grant.