Rate today's boat market?

[Art]

IMO - I've been "retired" my whole life... by always starting and owning my own businesses from the ground up. Restaurant, Tavern, RE investment, Invented/patented tool products on HD shelves, Masonry/concrete/tile building company. Far as I'm concerned... if I wanted to stop working to "retire" - that means I spent a life doing what I'd rather have not done. I like to work in "my" businesses that make me feel comfortable and excited every day. Keeps me in great physical condition too, with sharp mind. Boredom, retire and out of shape are not allowed to be posted in my dictionary!

Owning your own business means U B Da Boss! Therefore, you can take time off when you want to. And, build your business the way you want to.

At 70 yrs of age I'm in midst of rolling out what I plan to have become an enormous global business [Focused on Climate Warming Abatement]. Been building [inventing] its portions and products for over 25 years. All self funded - by my other businesses. Now with universities, professors, physicists, chemists, engineers and other associates at my side we're going after BIG FUNDS!

If you would like to learn more PM me. I'm not allowed to place business contact items on posts.

 

[Hippocampus]

Totally agree debt is a tool. When my portfolio was paying 10% and the boat loan was 4.3% (with tax benefit) made sense to play with other peoples money. But kept enough liquidity to immediately pay off the loan if ROI changed. It did and we paid off the loan.
Unfortunately all too many Americans don’t have the education or temperament to use debt appropriately. Too many people are carrying a debt burden that depends upon everything going right. Look at saving and debt ratios for us and other countries. They don’t get the stones lyric
Don’t always get what you want……but get what you need.

Like you busier now than before retirement. Post here while doing something else. But got burnt out at work. Walked out of the clinic and totally dropped that life. Was my best producing year but no longer fun just a fight to do what’s right.
Always had other interests and many non physician friends. Have yet to miss work, happy to have a more modest lifestyle and less stress. Happy to have no nut to cover nor schedules to meet. There’s many ways to live a “complete life”. Have a wedding/funeral suit and tie. Rest went to goodwill. Whatever floats your boat is fine. Unfortunately the statistics show loneliness is a real issue for all too many.
You can’t always get what you want….. but get what you need.

 

[Patemey]

I'm 32. One of the big trends I witnessed among my peers during the COVID mess was people jumping at opportunities to improve their employment situation. Quite a few people I know who were let go from restaurant or retail jobs did training programs in things like coding, computer game design, project management, etc. The training worked--these people are making way more money (almost all over $100k), often from wherever they want, working much better hours. They're not going back to their old jobs serving food or selling cell phones.

This, combined with the great retirement, allowed people to move up the ladder to better paying jobs. The problem is there isn't a demographic to backfill the lower paying service industry jobs.


Similarly, as mentioned a number of posts back, lets not forget that Covid handouts included PPP loans to businesses that were eventually forgiven. This allowed many business owners to move up the boat ladder and buy newer/bigger boats. They went into the $500k-$1M and higher markets, while selling and flooding the $100k-300k market with their previous boat. There is lots of inventory in the $100-$300k range, so a slower boat market; Not much inventory in the $1M+ range, so a stronger boat market.

 

[smitty477]

IMO - I've been "retired" my whole life... by always starting and owning my own businesses from the ground up. Restaurant, Tavern, RE investment, Invented/patented tool products on HD shelves, Masonry/concrete/tile building company. Far as I'm concerned... if I wanted to stop working to "retire" - that means I spent a life doing what I'd rather have not done. I like to work in "my" businesses that make me feel comfortable and excited every day. Keeps me in great physical condition too, with sharp mind. Boredom, retire and out of shape are not allowed to be posted in my dictionary!

Owning your own business means U B Da Boss! Therefore, you can take time off when you want to. And, build your business the way you want to.

At 70 yrs of age I'm in midst of rolling out what I plan to have become an enormous global business [Focused on Climate Warming Abatement]. Been building [inventing] its portions and products for over 25 years. All self funded - by my other businesses. Now with universities, professors, physicists, chemists, engineers and other associates at my side we're going after BIG FUNDS!

If you would like to learn more PM me. I'm not allowed to place business contact items on posts.

I see many past business owners here on this site -including us.

 

[jbinbi]

Just bought a new boat. Talked to many brokers. They believe the weakest part of the market will be with people who have to finance a large % of the purchase. That is the mid market and or low mid market.

Until we see layoffs, where people have to sell their toys to have savings, the market will not significantly soften. Well off can afford their toys, those who have financed and still have their jobs can keep them, those who have financed but have extra cash can also keep. Those who have financed but have no reserve will have to sell if the lose their jobs. This is not mostly high end.

 

[smitty477]

I do not see any way that interest rates, inflation, energy costs, unemployment and the return from a covid economy will not affect the boat market.

 

[mvweebles]

I do not see any way that interest rates, inflation, energy costs, unemployment and the return from a covid economy will not affect the boat market.

Totally agree. Question is by how much? It was a crazy market - a softening could mean simply returning to the normal market where buyers have patience, choice, and time giving them an advantage.

There are many who lick their chops for the bottom falling out. Right now, the middle and upper class people are fully employed and their spending has barely abated. Until that changes, market will remain strong except, as noted in a post a few up, those who need a second mortgage to finance. Definitely put a damper on some sales. But not a bottom-falling-out event......yet.

Peter

 

[smitty477]

Totally agree. Question is by how much? It was a crazy market - a softening could mean simply returning to the normal market where buyers have patience, choice, and time giving them an advantage.

There are many who lick their chops for the bottom falling out. Right now, the middle and upper class people are fully employed and their spending has barely abated. Until that changes, market will remain strong except, as noted in a post a few up, those who need a second mortgage to finance. Definitely put a damper on some sales. But not a bottom-falling-out event......yet.

Peter

- Covid 'kept' most onboard using boats, now many are traveling again.
- interest rates allowed many to purchase that would now not buy/qualify
- inflation was mostly flat defraying other non boating costs as well as boating
- employment was a given, now the market is definitely turning

Most recently the number of folks at the marina's have fallen, boat use has fallen, costs have risen and interests have shifted somewhat.
I believe we are only seeing the very beginning of this cycle where the cycles have been both longer in duration and more intense in their range.

 

[mvweebles]

- Covid 'kept' most onboard using boats, now many are traveling again.

- interest rates allowed many to purchase that would now not buy/qualify

- inflation was mostly flat defraying other non boating costs as well as boating

- employment was a given, now the market is definitely turning



Most recently the number of folks at the marina's have fallen, boat use has fallen, costs have risen and interests have shifted somewhat.

I believe we are only seeing the very beginning of this cycle where the cycles have been both longer in duration and more intense in their range.

Given the craziness of boat market and frustration of buyers in last couple years, I view these things as net positive. Could change and worsen significantly, but that is hardly a foregone conclusion.

For decades, with a few notable exceptions, mortgage rates hovered in the 7%-8% range. We are barely approaching that level now. It's a shock to the system because the previous fed policy of QE, but historically, this is sustainable. Inflation is worrisome but again, many investors have cautious optimism fed is now responding appropriately. As far as unemployment, 3.7% is not sustainable either and feeds inflation so there is room to adjust there too.

I'm not saying everything is rosy. We are walling a tightrope right now, but we're doing pretty well, especially when compared to other western economies.

This can be a perfectly healthy economy with plenty of consumer optimism with 6%-7% mortgage rates, 5% unemployment, and 4% inflation. Much of the last 70 years has been in that zone with long periods of sustained growth and prosperity. A bit of historical perspective helps here -

Peter

 

[smitty477]

Given the craziness of boat market and frustration of buyers in last couple years, I view these things as net positive. Could change and worsen significantly, but that is hardly a foregone conclusion.

For decades, with a few notable exceptions, mortgage rates hovered in the 7%-8% range. We are barely approaching that level now. It's a shock to the system because the previous fed policy of QE, but historically, this is sustainable. Inflation is worrisome but again, many investors have cautious optimism fed is now responding appropriately. As far as unemployment, 3.7% is not sustainable either and feeds inflation so there is room to adjust there too.

I'm not saying everything is rosy. We are walling a tightrope right now, but we're doing pretty well, especially when compared to other western economies.

This can be a perfectly healthy economy with plenty of consumer optimism with 6%-7% mortgage rates, 5% unemployment, and 4% inflation. Much of the last 70 years has been in that zone with long periods of sustained growth and prosperity. A bit of historical perspective helps here -

Peter

"This can be a perfectly healthy economy with plenty of consumer optimism with 6%-7% mortgage rates, 5% unemployment, and 4% inflation."
Agreed - but it has not been there and now needs to adjust for straying. Longer and wider apart will take longer and wider to adjust.
There are many numbers of working folks who have never experienced this 'normal' market we just spoke about, they also need to adjust.

 

[Seevee]

Yeah I agree with this. One exception to this is the military - they do a great job of training. Here in San Diego we benefit from a steady supply of skilled vets who are highly valued in the local job market. As an engineer I had the pleasure of working with graduates of Admiral Rickover's Navy nuke tech training program.

Getting closer to the subject of this post there's a guy down here who installs yacht electronics who drives around in a truck that says something like "The US Government spent $400,000 training me so you don't have to"

Where do you think the US Government gets its money?

 

[Seevee]

"This can be a perfectly healthy economy with plenty of consumer optimism with 6%-7% mortgage rates, 5% unemployment, and 4% inflation."
Agreed - but it has not been there and now needs to adjust for straying. Longer and wider apart will take longer and wider to adjust.
There are many numbers of working folks who have never experienced this 'normal' market we just spoke about, they also need to adjust.

Agreed, and that will affect boat prices. And when you have inflated prices, there's ALWAYS an adjustment and a most certain adjustment when we see increases of double digits. The housing market is already slowing and prices going down. Boats aren't far behind, if at all. We learn from history. Prices WILL DROP. It's a matter of how much and when.



As for debt, I love being in debt and will have debt until the day I die. However, I could argue that all debt be self liquidating and have income from it that pays the debt. Like rental stuff. Never have debt on consumer toys, makes no sense.

 

[Blissboat]

Given the craziness of boat market and frustration of buyers in last couple years, I view these things as net positive. Could change and worsen significantly, but that is hardly a foregone conclusion.

For decades, with a few notable exceptions, mortgage rates hovered in the 7%-8% range. We are barely approaching that level now. It's a shock to the system because the previous fed policy of QE, but historically, this is sustainable. Inflation is worrisome but again, many investors have cautious optimism fed is now responding appropriately. As far as unemployment, 3.7% is not sustainable either and feeds inflation so there is room to adjust there too.

I'm not saying everything is rosy. We are walling a tightrope right now, but we're doing pretty well, especially when compared to other western economies.

This can be a perfectly healthy economy with plenty of consumer optimism with 6%-7% mortgage rates, 5% unemployment, and 4% inflation. Much of the last 70 years has been in that zone with long periods of sustained growth and prosperity. A bit of historical perspective helps here -

Peter

Exactly right, Peter. The world is not coming unglued, nor is the U.S. economy. Pundits and politicians traffic in fear. Most of the rest of us can live our lives reasonably confident that we have all that we really need.

 

[mvweebles]

....
As for debt, I love being in debt and will have debt until the day I die. However, I could argue that all debt be self liquidating and have income from it that pays the debt. Like rental stuff. Never have debt on consumer toys, makes no sense.

Billionaire Michael Bloomberg famously said his goal is to "bounce the check to thr undertaker. "

My undergraduate degree is Finance, and I spent much of my corporate career in Finance and debt. But personally? I hate debt. Too much overhead. Always juggling payments and money.

Probably in this thread someone said "caskets don't have pockets." For me, if you like the idea of working debt in retirement, you're not really retired.

Peter

 

[bowball]

Used road vehicle prices have gone through the roof!

The used car, suv and truck market seems to have now taken on its own persona.

Price increases for used vehicles were begun by dealers who had trouble getting new vehicles in stock due to C-19 pandemic's upheavals... a result was non availability of vehicles from effects of parts for building vehicles being non available. Within a year of dealers raising prices on used vehicles [in order to make enough $$$ to stay in business] the general public got wise and then hitched on to that unexpected price increase for "their own" used vehicles.

This nutty 2X to 5X price increase for private-market sales of used vehicles is another factor pushing inflation onward. Everybody's scrambling to make another buck! IMO... similar to housing, boats and other items currently unusual levels of increased prices... when Fed-Rates get high enough to throttle the economy enough to stop inflation [i.e. to cause some %age of a recession] - used vehicle prices [asked for and/or paid for] will drop considerable.

Never forget late 70's into early 80's - Fed Chair... Paul Volker!

"Volcker slammed the brakes on the economy by raising interest rates to 20% — tough medicine to prove he was serious about getting inflation under control."

The inflation in used cars and trucks was really high, but today's numbers have it at zero now. Goods rate of inflation declined dramatically.

 

[Hippocampus]

People have a very short memory. In the late 70s to early 80s the current situation would be wished for.
Reading financial news this morning there’s some indication inflation maybe starting to moderate. However if consumer sentiment persistently declines recession will occur regardless of fed behavior. In conversations with friends who could afford to continue their travel programs several have decided to not make the annual migration to the Caribbean nor the migration to southern Florida nor the Bahamas. Rather even before the recent storms they decided to wait out this season. This applies to both power and sail.
Although only a small fragment routinely change cruising grounds my pier mates have also decreased their local travel. As this occurs each mile traveled becomes more expensive. The fixed expenses of owning a boat remain the same regardless of distance traveled. Once this reality permeates owners there’s less emotional incentive to owning and more incentive to share ownership or charter. Think this is occurring at all levels of the market and a contraction will occur even if diesel prices fall.
It will be interesting to see if biodiesel gains a greater foothold. Unfortunately current common rail is less tolerant of biodiesel if above just 5% and with some engines being able to tolerate as much as 20% but few can tolerate more than that. Wonder if Cummins, Cat, Volvo and other major manufacturers are retooling future engines to tolerate 100% or at least higher percentages of biofuels. If done so injectors wouldn’t have troubles we’d be out of the loop of geopolitical blackmail for transportation needs. See the production is possible with algae and other sources are available with seed plants unsuitable for growing foodstuffs . See common rail in its current form is a potential obstacle. But from my limited understanding unlike hydrogen our current infrastructure would not need to be replaced. So for long range, high weight and towing on land as well as for the maritime industry this maybe the preferred option over hydrogen and when electric isn’t appropriate. If so there would be less impact on recreational boating as we move forward.