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10-18-2021, 11:38 AM
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#1
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Guru
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Name: Resilient
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 1,510
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Oil $$$
Financial news is reporting that traders are increasing their bets on $200 oil. That can't be big bets, enough to drive things, but still.
The popularity of go-fast trawlers to fade, in favor of go-slow trawlers?
Boat sales in general to moderate from a red hot market to something less?
Transient slips easier to find?
Time will tell. Forecasts are meaningless anyway.
Boating popularity has been cyclical during my lifetime. Oil might cause a top of this cycle.
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10-18-2021, 12:47 PM
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#2
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Senior Member
City: Lafayette, CA
Vessel Name: Esprit
Vessel Model: 40' Tollycraft tricabin diesel
Join Date: Oct 2018
Posts: 453
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I spent a career in the oil industry. Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up. This is necessary if 'alternatives' are to have any chance of competing. However, most of us boaters have been through the previous cycle when oil went over $100/bbl. Yes it makes fueling expensive but let's be honest, the cost of fuel isn't that much compared to the total cost of owning a boat. So the only effect directly related to fuel cost that I've seen is more people displacing. As a secondary effect if oil does go to $200, it'll likely cause an economic downturn. That can slow the boating industry since it's a discressionary expense.
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10-18-2021, 12:58 PM
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#3
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Guru
City: Boston Area
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slowmo
.....Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up......
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If that were the case wouldn't oil only be going up in the US, and stable everywhere else ?
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10-18-2021, 01:11 PM
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#4
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Guru
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Name: Resilient
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 1,510
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Certainly what people are willing to pay is related to their discretionary income available to pay it.
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10-18-2021, 01:33 PM
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#5
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Guru
City: Owings, Md
Vessel Name: Graceland
Vessel Model: Mainship 34 MK1
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 1,381
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slowmo
Yes it makes fueling expensive but let's be honest, the cost of fuel isn't that much compared to the total cost of owning a boat. So the only effect directly related to fuel cost that I've seen is more people displacing. As a secondary effect if oil does go to $200, it'll likely cause an economic downturn. That can slow the boating industry since it's a discressionary expense.
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Agree 100%, aside from offshore fisherman and go fast boats, the actual percentage of your boating expences that are spent on fuel are almost an afterthought. Experienced boaters know this but first time shoppers don't realize this so it impacts the market and therefore the value of boats and of course the overall economic landscape is driving consumer confidence, investment returns and several non- direct factors impacting the demand for boats.
Tangent: Recreational boats spend the vast majority of their time sitting at the dock, using no fuel functioning very well as weekend escapes or just an excuse to hang around the marina and visit with like minded individuals. The term dock queen is kind of a derogatory label but if we are honest with ourselves and our boats actual usage, the floating condos are the most effective boats for their practical usage. (I still think they are ugly and would own one).
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10-18-2021, 02:03 PM
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#6
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Guru
City: Los Angeles
Join Date: Feb 2020
Posts: 1,487
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Slowmo
... Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up...
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Clearly the effort to stop/slow COVID is showing results.
The worldwide oil price drop in 2020 was due to the drastic travel and work
reductions that cut demand for fuel, a tough way to get cheaper crude.
__________________
Science doesn't care what you believe. -Neil deGrasse Tyson
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10-18-2021, 02:29 PM
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#7
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Scraping Paint
City: Lake Stevens, WA via Honolulu
Vessel Name: 'Au Kai (Ocean Traveler)
Vessel Model: C-Dory 25
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 450
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Quote:
Clearly the current administration is doing what it can to drive oil prices up.
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All part of the plan.
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10-18-2021, 04:22 PM
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#8
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Guru
City: Edgewater, MD
Vessel Name: Catalina Jack
Vessel Model: Defever 44
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by localboy
All part of the plan.
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Part of what plan? By whom? To what end? Look, the oil market is a WORLD market. It is not, and cannot be, controlled by any one country. It's called supply and demand, quite a simple concept with just a bit of tgought.
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10-18-2021, 04:37 PM
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#9
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Guru
City: Warwick, RI
Vessel Name: Susan Helena
Vessel Model: Albin40
Join Date: Oct 2014
Posts: 523
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There is a green agenda around the world in case you've been asleep for the last 15 years. The only 2 ways to advance the cause rapidly are to limit the supply of fossil fuels and give government subsidies to alternatives. It's not going to be cheap.
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10-18-2021, 04:48 PM
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#10
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Guru
City: Edgewater, MD
Vessel Name: Catalina Jack
Vessel Model: Defever 44
Join Date: Nov 2011
Posts: 3,585
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mike66
There is a green agenda around the world in case you've been asleep for the last 15 years. The only 2 ways to advance the cause rapidly are to limit the supply of fossil fuels and give government subsidies to alternatives. It's not going to be cheap.
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So, pray tell, who now is limiting the supply of fossil fuels? Right. No one and no proposals to do so.
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10-18-2021, 05:12 PM
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#11
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Guru
City: Centreville MD
Vessel Name: Resilient
Vessel Model: Helmsman Trawlers 38E
Join Date: Dec 2020
Posts: 1,510
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Prices are set at the margin. The highest price someone is willing to pay sets the market price.
The market value of publicly traded companies is set by the price paid for the last share traded of the day.
A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. Policy matters.
But this thread is about the potential impact of higher oil prices on boating.
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10-18-2021, 05:33 PM
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#12
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Guru
City: San Diego, CA
Vessel Name: Second Chance
Vessel Model: 42' Uniflite Double Cabin
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by catalinajack
So, pray tell, who now is limiting the supply of fossil fuels? Right. No one and no proposals to do so.
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OPEC+ is increasing supply in 'measured' steps, while economies are rebounding faster than energy supplies are increasing.
Worldwide demand is exceeding supply with a variety of factors contributing to it, including a group that is literally limiting their output specifically to raise prices.
U.S. production is down more than 2 million barrels from pre-pandemic levels with various factors (a combination of financial, environmental and political) tempering supply of both oil and gas output domestically.
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10-18-2021, 05:36 PM
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#13
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Senior Member
City: North
Vessel Name: Broadbill
Vessel Model: Willard 36
Join Date: Oct 2020
Posts: 439
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Still 3 bucks a gallon here in Gloucester,i need to put a couple hundred gallons on but not sure if i should try to wait for price to go down,usually every winter it gets between 1.90 and 2.25 for the lowest
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10-18-2021, 05:37 PM
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#14
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Guru
City: San Diego, CA
Vessel Name: Second Chance
Vessel Model: 42' Uniflite Double Cabin
Join Date: Jul 2017
Posts: 828
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lostsailor13
Still 3 bucks a gallon here in Gloucester,i need to put a couple hundred gallons on but not sure if i should try to wait for price to go down,usually every winter it gets between 1.90 and 2.25 for the lowest
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Forecasts are for further increases for consumers at the pump, but reality won't be known until it arrives.
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10-18-2021, 05:38 PM
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#15
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Senior Member
City: Tampa
Join Date: Oct 2019
Posts: 138
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Just the other day I was trying to get a friend to give me a ride to pick up some oil that was on sale. I said let's go Brandon. Needless to say by the time we got there they were out.
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10-18-2021, 06:44 PM
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#16
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Guru
City: Boston Area
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT
...A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. Policy matters....
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This is called statistical cherry picking.
A year ago the economy had ground to a halt. The fact that we are using more oil now than last year is not a matter of policy, its a matter of economics. The country is coming back to life and needs fuel to do it.
Last year was the first time that the US was a net exporter of oil since 1949 when the EIA started keeping records.
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10-18-2021, 08:02 PM
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#17
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Hospitality Officer
City: Pittwater
Vessel Name: Sarawana
Vessel Model: IG 36 Quad Cabin
Join Date: Sep 2010
Posts: 1,897
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And across the globe our fuel prices are also steadily rising as the world starts to climb out of the Covid induced downturn.
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10-18-2021, 08:16 PM
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#18
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Scraping Paint
City: Lake Stevens, WA via Honolulu
Vessel Name: 'Au Kai (Ocean Traveler)
Vessel Model: C-Dory 25
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FWT
A year ago the US was an exporter of oil. Today it is an importer. Policy matters.
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A year ago America was energy independent, a certain pipeline was being built and South Dakota was producing AMERICAN energy. Today a pipeline for Russia is OK and OPEC controls the supply.
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10-18-2021, 08:18 PM
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#19
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Scraping Paint
City: Lake Stevens, WA via Honolulu
Vessel Name: 'Au Kai (Ocean Traveler)
Vessel Model: C-Dory 25
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 450
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Benthic2
This is called statistical cherry picking.
A year ago the economy had ground to a halt. The fact that we are using more oil now than last year is not a matter of policy, its a matter of economics. The country is coming back to life and needs fuel to do it.
Last year was the first time that the US was a net exporter of oil since 1949 when the EIA started keeping records.
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Then why, prey tell, was our pipeline halted? Hmmmm....
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10-18-2021, 08:36 PM
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#20
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Guru
City: Boston Area
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,610
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Quote:
Originally Posted by localboy
Then why, prey tell, was our pipeline halted? Hmmmm....
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The Keystone XL pipleline never operational so stopping construction had no impact on current oil supply. It was never "our" pipeline it was owned by a Canadian company ( so it would have been "imported" oil )
The Dakota Access Pipeline is still operational so North Dakota is still supplying oil
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