Hurricane Irma
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wwestman
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- 1995 Jefferson Ker Shine 45
ANIMATION SATELLITE et RADAR de METEO FRANCE sur les Antilles Guyane (Guadeloupe, Martinique et Guyane)
Radar image from French Islands. Not looking good.
Radar image from French Islands. Not looking good.
Sad for the eastern Caribbean islands...they're going to be hit very hard. Deadly so. The tourist island economies can't take that level of destruction.
Irma is gusting to 225, and would almost cover the state of Texas right now. That's tornado level straight-line wind for many hours. Yes it might drop to a Cat 3 by Friday but it might not. It might turn north early but it might not. So unless something changes dramatically by tomorrow night, I'd attempt to get out of south FL. Leave one car in a concrete parking garage and book it in the other car. Get up to I-10 and turn left.
Let's say you leave and Irma misses FL. What's the worst that happens? You eat at Cracker Barrel 4 times, have hotel sex and then drive back home?
And if it does head north over FL, well you're safe, reasonably well-fed, relaxed and you have options. You can get your prescriptions, charge your cell phone, go to the bank, live in a/c, etc. There won't be much back home anyway.
One model shows it could still turn hard north and miss FL altogether, in which case the Carolinas may get concerned. One model even has Irma going northeast out to sea. I hope so. Anyway looks to be staying on the Atlantic side to me.
But my point is, it's not an average storm. Bottled water and bologna sandwiches are ok planning but that's probably not the level of plan you should be thinking about with this one. It's about 4 times wider than Florida. And it's gonna push a big surge...'cause it's a big storm. Things will be mess.
Either way, make your plan, work your plan. Personally I'd leave. And I don't like to leave.
Keep your families safe.
Irma is gusting to 225, and would almost cover the state of Texas right now. That's tornado level straight-line wind for many hours. Yes it might drop to a Cat 3 by Friday but it might not. It might turn north early but it might not. So unless something changes dramatically by tomorrow night, I'd attempt to get out of south FL. Leave one car in a concrete parking garage and book it in the other car. Get up to I-10 and turn left.
Let's say you leave and Irma misses FL. What's the worst that happens? You eat at Cracker Barrel 4 times, have hotel sex and then drive back home?
And if it does head north over FL, well you're safe, reasonably well-fed, relaxed and you have options. You can get your prescriptions, charge your cell phone, go to the bank, live in a/c, etc. There won't be much back home anyway.
One model shows it could still turn hard north and miss FL altogether, in which case the Carolinas may get concerned. One model even has Irma going northeast out to sea. I hope so. Anyway looks to be staying on the Atlantic side to me.
But my point is, it's not an average storm. Bottled water and bologna sandwiches are ok planning but that's probably not the level of plan you should be thinking about with this one. It's about 4 times wider than Florida. And it's gonna push a big surge...'cause it's a big storm. Things will be mess.
Either way, make your plan, work your plan. Personally I'd leave. And I don't like to leave.
Keep your families safe.
Question for you experts re: spaghetti models...
Doing some research, seems like there is a LOT of variance with them, and some seems to be just thrown together and some use some of the worlds most powerful computers for hours to generate them. Some of the best that get mentioned a bit include ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET. Yet a search is hard to find these models.
Any one know how to just search these?
Doing some research, seems like there is a LOT of variance with them, and some seems to be just thrown together and some use some of the worlds most powerful computers for hours to generate them. Some of the best that get mentioned a bit include ECMWF, GFDL, GFS, and UKMET. Yet a search is hard to find these models.
Any one know how to just search these?
menzies
Guru
I'm in, where do I sign up?
Gabe n Em
Guru
Let's say you leave and Irma misses FL. What's the worst that happens? You eat at Cracker Barrel 4 times, have hotel sex and then drive back home?
And if it does head north over FL, well you're safe, reasonably well-fed, relaxed and you have options. You can get your prescriptions, charge your cell phone, go to the bank, live in a/c, etc. There won't be much back home anyway.
.[/QUOTE]
BWA HA! That's great! Thank you for the laugh!
And if it does head north over FL, well you're safe, reasonably well-fed, relaxed and you have options. You can get your prescriptions, charge your cell phone, go to the bank, live in a/c, etc. There won't be much back home anyway.
.[/QUOTE]
BWA HA! That's great! Thank you for the laugh!
It will push a big surge in places but there's never a surge over 6' here which means we're ok. Even with a CAT 5. Plus we're not settling for bottled water and bologna. We're comfortable with several local options and homes that are not in any evacuation zone.
Re: Spaghetti Models
No idea. The Answer Man for all things Weather is Richard on Dauntless. I will say that the Weather people were very accurate about Harvey.
When I heard CNN say 'the European Model' I thought they were talking about our First Lady.
No idea. The Answer Man for all things Weather is Richard on Dauntless. I will say that the Weather people were very accurate about Harvey.
When I heard CNN say 'the European Model' I thought they were talking about our First Lady.
The computer models have shifted east a little but some were always east. The ensemble still is a mess of spaghetti.
You can some of the computer models on Wunderground, but all in the same chart. Still they're color coded so you can pick each one out. GFS, HWRS, AEM, UKMET, HMON and NGX2 are there.
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2017/tropical-storm-irma
Here is ECMWF.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/ana...ion=eus&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2017090512&fh=0
I think GFDL was retired. GFDL Hurricane Model Ensemble - 2017 Real-Time Forecasts
The European Model got a lot of press with Sandy as it had the direction right and no one else did. Now, it didn't have the force to the best of my memory. Some stats indicated they were historically more accurate but I've seen that argument refuted basically showing one is better one time and another the next and it's best to consider them all.
Last I looked which has been a couple of hours, the Euro model was going to the south west of the keys. It was the westernmost model. I don't know if that's true now or not.
menzies
Guru
Oh Man! Am I definitely in then! We talking about a full day or just the half day?
Wifey B: Boy these things give you such mixed feelings. I don't want it hitting me, but I don't want it hitting anyone. Another hurricane on Long Island and some of the Exumas will be so devastating. Obviously not the damage as hitting Florida but destroyed everything the people there have. Last time we were there they still hadn't recovered from Joaquin. 
Oh, just saw latest and now Euro and GFS agree on a turn to the north, just not sure when or where exactly.
I can only get excited if it heads out to sea.
Oh, just saw latest and now Euro and GFS agree on a turn to the north, just not sure when or where exactly.
I can only get excited if it heads out to sea.
BandB,
Good for you, and after all your fine efforts, you deserve a safe haven. Hope the storm is minimal or none in FLL.
As for the rest of the state, I hope we can all escape harms way and have a plan A and a plan B.
I'll be tying boats down and boarding up in the next two days and will probably make a go or stay decision early Sat.
Best to all.
Everyone deserves the same safe haven. We don't get hurricanes or tornadoes because we're more or less deserving.
Just be careful about a Saturday decision. You don't want to be stuck on the roads and you could be going into it instead of away. Some places will be a zoo by then too.
OP
OP
101TUG
Senior Member
I'm living since 22 years in ST Barth on caraibes and since 10 years on trawler and I love to live onboard but I one day we going to stop the life onboard that going to be for this reason to...
I'm tired of hurricane
Steve91T
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We are halfway up the ICW. Spending the night in Waca Wachie tonight then 4 more hours tomorrow to Grande Dunes. A buddy of mine came with me and we are having a blast. But tomorrow how should I leave the boat? As many bumpers and lines that I have, but what about shore power? I'm thinking no shore power and empty the fridge and leave it open. Should I tie the boat tight to the floating docks or loose?
And if you want to watch it animated via real time data ... https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-69.49,16.64,995
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Assuming it's in one of the floating docks and not against the wall, I believe you should center it in the slip so that it's touching nowhere and tight enough to hold it. Now some believe tight to one side. Double, triple lines. As many fenders as you can hang. Make sure the fenders will stay down in position and protect.
I would clean out the refrigerator since it's easy for you to do as you transportation and will head home.
Now, bilge pumps are your most important boat equipment along with batteries and chargers. Make sure they're working. The shore power can lead to issues but it's also your assistant toward keeping batteries charged. If things turn real bad then there will be no shore power anyway. I'd be sure I had a good connection and the cord wasn't in the water and wouldn't be. However, I'd want the shore power on as long as possible so that when you do lose it the batteries are at full charge. Now, all this depends on your system and I don't know what kind of charger you have. Odds are you won't lose power there. It's a pretty good location. If the hurricane does hit there, then I'd get to the boat as quickly as safely can be done.
Now consider all the input from everyone as there is no perfect way or consensus.
Benthic2
Guru
Can you imagine living 75-100 years ago, when you'd have very little advance notice, if any, of something like this ? ( The first weather satellite was launched in 1960 )
OP
OP
101TUG
Senior Member
CDreamer I hope ST Barth survives
seriously I toke Luis in 1995 CAT 4 and during 15 minutes of my life I think I'm going to die, all roof gone and we was cabriolet with around 140kt of wind
Yu can't imagine how afraid I was.
And Irma more powerful I can't believe it :bang head:
we going to know in 24H the situation
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