Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
 
Old 09-05-2017, 09:52 AM   #61
Guru
 
City: Seaford Va on Poquoson River, VA
Vessel Name: Old Glory
Vessel Model: 1970 Egg Harbor 37 extended salon model
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 2,255
Post #45, the picture link gets updated, now they have shifted the track to east coat of Florida at 10:AM from west coast at 6:00AM.

A lot of uncertainty. Maybe it skips Florida entirely.

sdowney717 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 10:00 AM   #62
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardude01 View Post
I'm realizing now I didn't leave the boat prepared correctly. There is a sailor there local who might get the jib down and do some of the other things on CDreamer's list. I really don't want to try to fly into the path of this storm and then get out again by Friday.
I'd try to trust someone local if at all possible. I think you fell a bit for the illusion that Okeechobee is not a risk. No different than someone deciding NY isn't. Everywhere has some risk, some more than others perhaps. But I'd get someone to do what they can there and then ride it out. No two hurricanes are the same but in Texas the boats sure came through a lot better than the houses and on the whole the boats on the water better than those on land due to outdoor dry storage facilities collapsing and boats on land being blown over into each other. Now, the quantity of rain sank a few.

At some point, you just do what you can and then try to be safe.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 11:33 AM   #63
Senior Member
 
City: Florida
Vessel Name: Mersea
Vessel Model: Marquis 59
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by cardude01 View Post
Yeah, his input was take it down. He has a sailor buddy going to check it out for me, but if that fails I might have to fly down and figure it out. If I have time.

Just FYI, if I ever dock my boat next to you, I seem to be a hurricane magnet.
I fly a lot commercially for work - several a week a lot of weeks. Speaking as a frequent airport visitor - I would anticipate it will be very difficult flying in and out of FL.

Business travel is dropping fast, but replaced with people all over the Caribbean going into FL then taking flights back out. What they do send in will be packed coming back out.

Airlines will stop sending planes into FL a day or so in advance, they don't want equipment sitting on the ground.

My thought, if you are going to fly in and out - go now - don't wait till later in the week. From the area you describe, you have Ft Meyers, Tampa, Orlando, a stretch up to Jacksonville. Anywhere else will be commuter planes without much capacity.

Just a travel thought if you are contemplating.
FootballFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 11:42 AM   #64
Senior Member
 
Martin J's Avatar
 
City: Mt Crested Butte
Vessel Name: Artemis
Vessel Model: Cheoy Lee 67
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 478
Up date

Sadly Irmas now on track to pass within 10 miles of my boat with sustained 180mph at 2100hrs AST tomorrow. I don't see any possibility of deviation. Knowing the force of hurricanes losing a boat is one thing, but the tragic loss of life that will occur as it passes through the Leewards and onto the Turks and Caicos is indeed very sad. So many of these islands are no more than sand spits 20ft high. My hopes are with my friends throughtout the leewards that they all come through well.
Martin J is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 11:46 AM   #65
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Freedom
Vessel Model: Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 23,998
Not necessarily..... Irma may stop or slow traffic depending on forecasts. Hurricane Matthew had flights in and out of Tampa and Orlando pretty much on schedule, bases on demand, if I remember correctly. It was Eastern coastal Florida that was all but shut down.

Until the day of and reasonable predictions, the airlines will bend service but not cancel it until it is just unsafe.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 12:25 PM   #66
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
We need to not overlook Jose, following in Irma's footsteps.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 12:37 PM   #67
Guru
 
psneeld's Avatar
 
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Freedom
Vessel Model: Albin 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 23,998
One at a time, if they still arent sure about Irma, why sweat Jose?

In my experience with hurricanes, you prepare for a decided action, but then dont follow through until each bench mark is made.


Most of the time it does miss, but if it does hit, it takes 100 percent of your effort to follow through in preparation or evacuation.

If you prepare for every threat.... great... if you have the time and money. If you wait till necessary, you better have both, but at least you didnt waste them on misses.
psneeld is online now   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 12:58 PM   #68
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by psneeld View Post
One at a time, if they still arent sure about Irma, why sweat Jose?

In my experience with hurricanes, you prepare for a decided action, but then dont follow through until each bench mark is made.


Most of the time it does miss, but if it does hit, it takes 100 percent of your effort to follow through in preparation or evacuation.

If you prepare for every threat.... great... if you have the time and money. If you wait till necessary, you better have both, but at least you didnt waste them on misses.
Because for those in the Leewards and Turks and Caicos as referenced in Martin J's post, as well as other islands, Jose is within days of Irma. It's currently shown to be north of Puerto Rico as a CAT 2 on Sunday. I'm not saying those of us in the states need to be concerned yet, but to some islands if it follows Irma closely it could be more damaging than a storm it's size normally would be. I wasn't instructing any action, simply said not to overlook.

I agree with not panicking over every hurricane possibility but be aware and prepared to plan and take action if necessary. We haven't taken any actions for Irma yet other than to just get back home. Boats are ready and house can be ready within 2 hours. Whether to move inland or not, to be determined.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:02 PM   #69
Senior Member
 
City: Florida
Vessel Name: Mersea
Vessel Model: Marquis 59
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 202
Quote:
Originally Posted by BandB View Post
Because for those in the Leewards and Turks and Caicos as referenced in Martin J's post, as well as other islands, Jose is within days of Irma. It's currently shown to be north of Puerto Rico as a CAT 2 on Sunday. I'm not saying those of us in the states need to be concerned yet, but to some islands if it follows Irma closely it could be more damaging than a storm it's size normally would be. I wasn't instructing any action, simply said not to overlook.

I agree with not panicking over every hurricane possibility but be aware and prepared to plan and take action if necessary. We haven't taken any actions for Irma yet other than to just get back home. Boats are ready and house can be ready within 2 hours. Whether to move inland or not, to be determined.
BandB,

Discussion at lunch with a friend who has kids living in the Aventura area (apartment), he was wondering if should tell them to get in the car and move inland.

If you go inland - where would you go? Up the turnpike or 95?
FootballFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:16 PM   #70
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by FootballFan View Post
BandB,

Discussion at lunch with a friend who has kids living in the Aventura area (apartment), he was wondering if should tell them to get in the car and move inland.

If you go inland - where would you go? Up the turnpike or 95?
Well, in Fort Lauderdale, inland only means crossing Hwy 1. For us it's 1.3 miles. We have friends who live "on the other side" of the line. For us the definite evacuation zone is those east of the ICW. Those on the water but west of the ICW it depends on the storm and most are really elevated enough that surge won't reach them anyway.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:18 PM   #71
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by FootballFan View Post
BandB,

Discussion at lunch with a friend who has kids living in the Aventura area (apartment), he was wondering if should tell them to get in the car and move inland.

If you go inland - where would you go? Up the turnpike or 95?
I generally would not go up the turnpike or 95. You don't know that isn't going to be where it hits. You don't want to be on the road. If you're going to leave town, then leave all potential areas. Fly to Vegas or something. But don't move from one potential striking area to another.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:23 PM   #72
Guru
 
menzies's Avatar
 
City: Jacksonville
Vessel Name: SONAS
Vessel Model: Grand Alaskan 53
Join Date: May 2014
Posts: 7,235
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdowney717 View Post

Definitely panic a little is warranted if your in the way of it, do something if you can.
Panic is warranted?

Surely you mean planned action and preparedness.

Panic?
menzies is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:23 PM   #73
Senior Member
 
City: Florida
Vessel Name: Mersea
Vessel Model: Marquis 59
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 202
Will pass that on, not advising just offering observation. Thank you for your input.


They are W of the ICW, I know the property and the area well. Suspect they are ok from Storm Surge - I think the risk is if the track tilts a bit north and storm comes ashore in that lower PB down to Homestead stretch with the winds it is packing.


I read a few minutes ago TS level of winds into upper Keys on Friday. If that holds, airlines last MIA/FLL flights will be Thursday afternoon evening, There will not be any equipment sitting on runways daylight on Friday.
FootballFan is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:28 PM   #74
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by FootballFan View Post
Will pass that on, not advising just offering observation. Thank you for your input.


They are W of the ICW, I know the property and the area well. Suspect they are ok from Storm Surge - I think the risk is if the track tilts a bit north and storm comes ashore in that lower PB down to Homestead stretch with the winds it is packing.


I read a few minutes ago TS level of winds into upper Keys on Friday. If that holds, airlines last MIA/FLL flights will be Thursday afternoon evening, There will not be any equipment sitting on runways daylight on Friday.
Sometimes people use 95 as a cut off and sometimes Hwy 1 but Dade's actual maps have blotches and squares here and there.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 01:57 PM   #75
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Here's a sheet with links to evacuation zones throughout the country.

http://flash.org/2016EvacuationZones.pdf

And here is Florida, specifically.

Florida DEM Disaster Preparedness Maps
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 02:04 PM   #76
Guru
 
City: Seaford Va on Poquoson River, VA
Vessel Name: Old Glory
Vessel Model: 1970 Egg Harbor 37 extended salon model
Join Date: Jan 2016
Posts: 2,255
Quote:
Originally Posted by menzies View Post
Panic is warranted?

Surely you mean planned action and preparedness.

Panic?
Yes, definitely a little panic is a good thing, might get people motivated that like to just not do anything. they could be killed.

So do you have a flight or fight reaction to a CAT 5 hurricane?
Maybe both is a good thing, but not just fight, get out of harm's way, if you can by flight, this monster storm is bigger than most can handle.
sdowney717 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 02:17 PM   #77
Veteran Member
 
bigthaw's Avatar
 
City: Tarpon Spgs Fl.
Vessel Name: sold Pursuit refit '76 36' sloop
Vessel Model: trawler in future...
Join Date: Jun 2017
Posts: 27
Quote:
Originally Posted by 101TUG View Post
Hello hello sorry for black out I was at sea like you can imagine...

Sunday afternoon I made full south, I arrived yesterday end of the day in ST Lucia under Martinique.

This one is huge Cat 4 that going to destroy a lot, Gustavia Harbor are empty of boat only around 10 decay sailboat on water.

ST Maarten going to have lot of damage too and sure some boat going to finished in matches.

even 240NM down the swell going to be 12' but glad I'm on Rodney Bay Marine really protected for surge, I'm normally suppose to have no wind here :roll eyes:and I really hope.

strong think to my family and friends stay up fingers cross...we will see in 2 days how is going.

good luck and be prepared to all people where Irma going to pass

Hugues
Tug 101, Hugues...... Very good Move!!!! that is what I would have done...you have saved your beautiful ship!

Catastrophic,... at 3pm EST Tuesday watching the weather channel.., for St Barts, Antigua, Barbuda, All the Virgin Islands, Vieques, Culebra...n east end of PR...Turks and Caicos. all the southern Bahamas...north coast Dom. Rep..and beyond going WNW up thru Florida Straits...all places I've anchored and sailed...180 MPH....OMG!!!!!
unimaginable.. then after all this...the Keys and Florida....?!???....Martin J...... ughhh!! All... please let us what happens in a day or two...(fingers crossed)
long gas lines in Miami right now....mandatory evacuation for all visitors in Key West!!!!
__________________
x sailor, x st. Thomas captain '78-'83, sailed entire Bahamas, Dom. Rep. P.R. and eastern Caribbean in 1971 Morgan 35 c/b sloop, 15 hp yanmar. ... 1/'17 SOLD 1976 morgan Heritage West Indies 36' sloop..gorgeous refit..pic'd avatar
bigthaw is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 02:32 PM   #78
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
Quote:
Originally Posted by sdowney717 View Post
Yes, definitely a little panic is a good thing, might get people motivated that like to just not do anything. they could be killed.

So do you have a flight or fight reaction to a CAT 5 hurricane?
Maybe both is a good thing, but not just fight, get out of harm's way, if you can by flight, this monster storm is bigger than most can handle.
Defining harms way is difficult as everyone sees it different. Evacuation zones are based on surge, not on wind. Based on surge, I have no reason to move during even a 5, but I'm in a mandatory evacuation zone for a CAT 5 so probably will if a 5 hits us.

Now, safety from the winds depends on protecting yourself in your home. How new or old is the home, what construction, are their areas in it you feel safer. Getting mattresses and covering yourself so flying items don't hit you or staying in bathrooms or halls.

Each person has to assess their own risk.

When you live on or near a coast, you should have created a plan long ago and executing it should be easy. Everyone in South Florida is water and grocery and propane and gas shopping.

Panic and healthy fear are two different things. It's fine to fear what might happen if one can just make rational decisions while doing so.

My one urgency was to get home to be with family and friends. I know to some, perhaps many, that sounds stupid. We could have stayed in Charlotte, NC and been safe.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 02:36 PM   #79
Guru
 
BandB's Avatar
 
City: Fort Lauderdale. Florida, USA
Join Date: Jan 2014
Posts: 19,756
This is a new one to me but logical. The Keys have issued a mandatory evacuation of all visitors. Now some of the areas will evacuate residents too, later. It does make sense to get visitors cleared out first.
BandB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-05-2017, 02:46 PM   #80
Guru
 
City: Hotel, CA
Join Date: Sep 2011
Posts: 8,320
Quote:
Originally Posted by FF View Post
After almost 11 years of nothing ,a lot of new folks in FL may find out about the value of "Be Prepaired".


Why prepare? Ain't that what FEMA is for?

Unfortunately many are going to find out the hard way.
__________________
Craig

It's easier to fool people than to convince them that they've been fooled - Mark Twain
CPseudonym is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off


» Trawler Port Captains
Port Captains are TF volunteers who can serve as local guides or assist with local arrangements and information. Search below to locate Port Captains near your destination. To learn more about this program read here: TF Port Captain Program





All times are GMT -5. The time now is 09:11 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.8 Beta 4
Copyright ©2000 - 2021, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Search Engine Optimization by vBSEO 3.6.0
Copyright 2006 - 2012