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Old 09-08-2017, 05:13 AM   #261
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Hurricane Andrew was a really bad awful one for Florida.

Notice here how much larger is Irma.
Although I wonder if it will be much worse than Andrew was. Bigger just means more rain farther from the center eye.



Here’s why Irma is a monster hurricane, in one GIF. | Grist
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Old 09-08-2017, 05:45 AM   #262
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"when will the bridges shut down in S FL?"

Usually when the winds are over 35mph , or the evac traffic is wall to wall.

Ordered shut in the keys as with only one road in & out its critical.
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:17 AM   #263
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My brothers family with 3 high schoolers refuses to leave Ft. Lauderdale.
And I don't blame them. They live in Plantation in a brick single story home.

The roads are jammed with panicking drivers and hardly flowing, and their cars are running out of gas and they are in miserable heat. What happens if they are stuck on the highway when Irma hits?

Irma is going from south to north and path is going to follow the interstate roads all the way up Florida..

Traffic jam nightmares as Irma nears Florida | Fox News
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Old 09-08-2017, 06:37 AM   #264
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Just found out our house in New Port Richey is under a voluntary evacuation order. We are currently up north living on the boat, but have plans to haul early next week, then drive to see what's left late next week/weekend.
Hopefully we won't get too much rain or surge.
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Old 09-08-2017, 07:04 AM   #265
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Am I alone in feeling our government officials and the media are guilty of creating a mass panic throughout FL, SC and GA in their race to be sure federal funds and help will be there for their state?

We just got home from a trip up north and Wednesday night stayed in a small town near Spartanburg SC, fully 130 miles from the coast. It seemed like everyone in town was panicing. Water was selling like crazy and the gas stations were backed up with customers. Thursday morning, no station had regular no lead and the pumps were closed. We were heading south on I-95 and almost no traffic headed south but traffic headed north was pumper to pumper. And of course there was multi-car accidents to further slow down traffic and add to the chaos.

It just seems like the panicing is taking place much too early and many evacuating on whims rather than potential danger. They are making worse it for those who really do need to evacuate.

On the plus side, we did see recovery resources headed south to deal with the aftermath of the storm.

Sorry for the rant.
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Old 09-08-2017, 07:46 AM   #266
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Hurricane Irma

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Old 09-08-2017, 09:13 AM   #267
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And if they arent prepared, people would Monday morning quaterback at the top of their lungs....heck they are going to anyway...

Panic is self generated, info passed is just that.

I have friends staying in the keys, they are worried, not panicked.

They are in mandatory evac areas....the Florida govenor has daid 2X just this morning that not everyone needs to or even leave the state. Stay off the roads if you dont need to be there. I think the press conferences have been pretty good.

So officials cant win in a disaster because beople will die and suffer no matter what they do, their job is to minimize it.

I could go politicsl explaining reasoning of public info release, but best left out of here....again a no win situation for any official operation.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:16 AM   #268
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And if they arent prepared, people would Monday morning quaterback at the top of their lungs....heck they are going to anyway...

Panic is self generated, info passed is just that.

I have friends staying in the keys, they are worried, not panicked.

They are in mandatory evac areas....the Florida govenor has daid 2X just this morning that not everyone needs to or even leave the state. Stay off the roads if you dont need to be there. I think the press conferences have been pretty good.

So officials cant win in a disaster because beople will die and suffer no matter what they do, their job is to minimize it.

I could go politicsl explaining reasoning of public info release, but best left out of here....again a no win situation for any official operation.

Absolutely correct ....
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:51 AM   #269
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This whole preparation thing, or lack there of is difficult to understand.

It's stupid for example that people line up at Home Depot to buy plywood for their windows the week a hurricane is going to hit.

It's stupid that they are clearing the shelves of food.

It's stupid and proof that people are stupid that there is mass panic right now.

How about preparing for things like this? How about making personal choices to prepare?

I have talked to several friends and customers this week about this subject and everybody is amazed at the utter lack of thinking ahead that people do.

First off there is zero chance that anybody that thinks ahead would ever buy a house in an area that cold be storm surge flooded.

Anybody that thinks ahead would have hurricane covers for their windows. Shutters, or plywood, pre cut and marked with the window name.

Anybody that thinks ahead would have water stashed, and food, and a generator, and fuel, the list goes on...

Seems to me that the primary responsibility of an adult(s) is the protection of their family. I cannot imagine failing at that responsibility.

Modern men and women have lost their survival skills. No modern urban men and women have lost their survival skills. Lots of country folk are prepared. They build their houses on a hill. They stock the pantry. They know a storm is coming and can weather it out...Just like country folks have always done.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:57 AM   #270
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Jose is now Cat 4 and headed for the same Leeward islands that have been destroyed by Irma.
With much communication down I fear they wont even see this one coming.
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Old 09-08-2017, 10:58 AM   #271
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Got her moved to Grande Dunes! Looks like a well protected marina. I'm so lucky. I literally got the last slip.

Looks like Irma is going further west, so I'm sure Myrtle Beach isn't going to get hit that hard.

Thanks for everyone's help! If it wasn't for you guys, I would probably be leaving it anchored in a river somewhere and hoping for the best.

Good luck everyone!
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Old 09-08-2017, 11:02 AM   #272
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I agree Kevin. Most urbanites are very helpless. Not all, but most. If there ever is a REAL crisis - nuclear war, the zombie apocalypse, whatever, the city dwellers are toast.

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Old 09-08-2017, 11:11 AM   #273
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I agree Kevin. Most urbanites are very helpless. Not all, but most. If there ever is a REAL crisis - nuclear war, the zombie apocalypse, whatever, the city dwellers are toast.

David
They will be the Zombies

I was just looking...Fema has some really good guides and recomendations for preparing your home to survive a hurricane. Common sense stuff.

I tell people that two weeks without food and water and they will be barbecuing each other.
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Old 09-08-2017, 11:16 AM   #274
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My brothers family with 3 high schoolers refuses to leave Ft. Lauderdale.
And I don't blame them. They live in Plantation in a brick single story home.

The roads are jammed with panicking drivers and hardly flowing, and their cars are running out of gas and they are in miserable heat. What happens if they are stuck on the highway when Irma hits?

Irma is going from south to north and path is going to follow the interstate roads all the way up Florida..

Traffic jam nightmares as Irma nears Florida | Fox News
The mayor of Houston was criticized for not ordering an evacuation of the city in the face of Harvey. One look at the Florida freeways explains his decision. Houston tried to evacuate in the face of Rita (or maybe it was Ike). Learned our lesson.
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Old 09-08-2017, 11:54 AM   #275
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How Hurricane Rita anxiety led to the worst gridlock in Houston history - Houston Chronicle

It happens everywhere.

By the way, back in the 60's/70's my family had a 22' keelboat (sailboat). When our private marina said, "Get out", you were expected to leave - in fact you signed a form committing to leave. There was an extensive Hurricane Plan including pre-arranged slips at other marinas. It worked fairly well...not 100% but pretty well.
For the smaller boats like ours <5000 lbs, a big crawler crane was brought in. You brought your boat around and got in line. A crew pulled masts, labeled them and moved them up into the highest parking area. The boats were lifted and set down in the parking area, on their sides (no engines). You just slipped cushions or fenders under the boat as the crane laid them down...all lined up. Worked for years, until Ike with a 16' surge floated them. It wasn't for lack of preparation...the building hadn't been flooded in over 100 years. It got about 8' in Ike.
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:21 PM   #276
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How Hurricane Rita anxiety led to the worst gridlock in Houston history - Houston Chronicle

It happens everywhere.

By the way, back in the 60's/70's my family had a 22' keelboat (sailboat). When our private marina said, "Get out", you were expected to leave - in fact you signed a form committing to leave. There was an extensive Hurricane Plan including pre-arranged slips at other marinas. It worked fairly well...not 100% but pretty well.
For the smaller boats like ours <5000 lbs, a big crawler crane was brought in. You brought your boat around and got in line. A crew pulled masts, labeled them and moved them up into the highest parking area. The boats were lifted and set down in the parking area, on their sides (no engines). You just slipped cushions or fenders under the boat as the crane laid them down...all lined up. Worked for years, until Ike with a 16' surge floated them. It wasn't for lack of preparation...the building hadn't been flooded in over 100 years. It got about 8' in Ike.
Rita was a fiasco, but a few years later, for Ike, it was much better. For two reasons. First, many refused to evacuate remembering the Rita fiasco, but second, the city and state did a much better job: reversed the lanes on freeways, had patrolling fuel trucks, tow trucks, etc.
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:27 PM   #277
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If the information was all delivered in a information mode without emotion and without some emotional embellishment then for many it just wouldn't work. Each television station, each government official does it differently. I've studied Andrew and talked to many who were here and the most amazing aspect was the lack of deaths. People listened, largely listened to Bryan Norcross and you could see rubble after in Country Walk and people who rode it out there. I'm not seeing as much of what to do if you don't evacuate this time and that does bother me a bit but now on local media it's coming on more. I think now they are turning to advise those who are staying.

Is there such a thing as over-preparing? I don't know that there is. I didn't think the criticism of the Mayor of Houston not evacuating was justified nor do I think the criticism of the governors this time to warn people is justified. The point is saving lives and even if you believe some of them are politically motivated to not look bad, then that's in itself good if it saves lives. We have in this country an extremely low number of deaths in the worst natural disasters and that's a credit to the efforts of all.

Ultimately no one knows where it's going to hit. Yes, I think the reporters on Weather Channel are overly dramatic and less just strictly meteorologists than they should be but I also recognize the benefit in that. I believe ultimately it's beneficial. One thing also learned in the past is the need to declare states of emergency early and get the orders for help established as in some situations in the past governors have been too slow and the federal government can't mobilize help until requested from a governor.

Is it a perfect system? Far from it. But it still works pretty well. Then as to this particular hurricane, it's shown how destructive it can be, even without a direct hit. I look at the models as they change each day. Knowing the rate of normal error 4 and 5 days out, you really have two choices. Either more areas preparing than need to or fewer areas. I think I'd personally choose more areas.

Also what might appear as panic from some places doesn't so much here locally. Have people raided the stores of water and food they can eat without electricity? Yes. But that seems wise, not panic. Should people have been better prepared in advance? Yes, but many were not. We haven't panicked, we were prepared well in advance. We started preparing for this in 2012 when we moved here. But there are many who hadn't and they need to be helped and messages sent to them now.

I hope they don't wait too long to start reversing and telling people to find shelter not to head up the highways but seeing the crowds on the roads today, two days before it will hit most of our areas, doesn't concern me, instead makes me feel those who need to evacuate are doing so.

Should some be more prepared and knowledgeable? Of course but we're not all the same. A bit of obsessiveness made us well informed and prepared. But how many of you have ever checked the exact altitude and elevation of your home and checked history of surge in your location? Most haven't and to expect everyone to have done so isn't reasonable.

Look at the elderly in Florida, many with some level of disability. Then look at the population that wasn't here last time or wasn't even born for Andrew. Then Andrew can build a false sense of security too. It hit one area with incredible force but missed all others. That's nothing like Irma. Addressing it with just information might have worked well for some of us but for others dramatizing it is very necessary to get their attention.

We all have our own approaches too. If someone were to walk into this forum from a non-boating world, they'd look and say, "just look at those people worrying about their boats when lives are in danger or people's homes even? What kind of people are they?" Well, they're probably the same people worried about their family photo album or something Aunt Ethel gave them or the kitchen they just redecorated. I think though at the point it gets closer everyone starts to focus just on their lives. I heard someone ask a neighbor what was he going to do to protect his tennis court yesterday. The one with the tennis court just stared back and then politely said "nothing." He said to me after, "does he really think with a hurricane approaching I'm worried about my f..ing tennis court?" All the thoughts and actions won't be rational though.

One thing that has changed dramatically too is so much more media today. We see governors more, mayors more, FEMA more. People like knowing they're all involved. Yes, you also have stations competing for audiences too. No question that this is a ratings boon for Weather Channel, but then isn't this their purpose too? Just like catastrophes are major for all the news channels. So we see more of it than ever before. Careers are made and destroyed in events like this. Bryan Norcross saved his during Andrew. Al Michaels became known to many non-sports fans during the SF earthquake. But these are people who did a very professional job. If we lived in Connecticut, we didn't see it all for Andrew. Even recently we didn't see so much in advance of the hurricanes that hit Galveston. Is some of it fear mongering? I don't think so. I think it's trying to instill an appropriate amount of fear and action.

Now after it's over, I think we should allow criticism if it's aimed toward improvement. We're about to find out if the improvement in building codes after Andrew in South Florida has helped. In other areas we may find out they need improved codes. None of this helps the Hemingway House or much of old Key West but it's critical in rebuilding. I saw in South Texas a need for improved codes as they rebuild. That's not second guessing, that's learning.

Back to Donsan's post, I'm with psneeld. No one told those near Spartanburg to panic. The statements made, information given and individuals chose to panic. Two years ago when we were in Myrtle Beach during the storms that hit SC and NC, the mother of one of the girls with us called, concerned about her being there on the boat during the flood. Melissa said, "Mom, boats float. Remember Noah and his Ark?" I know the official words were to have food and water for at least three days. I'm sure some bought enough for three months. Well, that was personal reaction. But then it might even be good to make up for the neighbor who did nothing. I know we're better prepared than some of our neighbors. That will allow us to help them if our neighborhood gets hit hard. Evacuating too soon works better than too late.

I noticed the mention of family in Plantation. Well, there are some in Plantation who hit the roads evacuating. No one ever said for them to do so. The governor has repeatedly said, listen to your local authorities. We have members of our extended family in Plantation. They're new to FL and their NC family was panicked saying they should evacuate. They're actually working today. They have their house ready. But they said some neighbors had evacuated and left keys to their homes with them in case they got badly hit. They found humor that people were concerned their houses would get demolished and leaving keys.

Are there mistakes being made? Yes, and hopefully we'll learn from them, but I am not going to question the motives of anyone involved at this point, not even the politicians I generally deplore. I honestly believe that everyone is trying to do what they consider best in their roles. I'm watching a dramatization of storm surge right now. It's way over the top to those of us who actually understand surge. But we're a minority and for those who need warning, it is probably good.

Ultimately there will be far more people evacuated than necessary, far more help requested, far more people panicked than needed to be, but that's so much better than far less. I'm more worried about those on the FL west coast who thought only those on the East Coast needed to worry.
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:39 PM   #278
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Kevin

Lots to be said for your comments. But, natural disasters are unfortunately common place. We make choices on where we live based on many things. One is employment. But once we retire and or have some financial independence, questions such as tornadoes, floods, hurricanes, fires, earthquakes and termites invade our thinking as to residence selection.

To that end, we nixed several places for a primary retirement residence including FL. But a tsunami could nail us while we are anchored. With safe havens rare, preparations as you suggest are a good idea. Eventually mind numbing too.

The entire US east coast is shaped and sand strewn for a reason, tens of thousands of hurricanes for starters. These events will only get worse as populations and water recreation increase.
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Old 09-08-2017, 12:46 PM   #279
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First off there is zero chance that anybody that thinks ahead would ever buy a house in an area that cold be storm surge flooded.
While I think your rant as a whole is revisionist history where storms in olden times and country folk killed far more people than similar storms do today, but this one comment is one I feel most needs to be addressed.

So are you saying don't buy a home in any area potentially flooded or any area subject to out of control fires or any area with earthquakes or any area with tornadoes or any area with bitter winters and snow storms and blizzards or any area where it's dark half the year or just where does it stop?

What about Houston? It was flooding, not storm surge? So no more homes in New Jersey or New York City as Sandy hit there?

By your definition no one should live in the Keys, yet there are homes there that have weathered conditions since the 1800's. The audacity to attack those who live in Florida, who live in Puerto Rico, who live in St. Maarten or St. Martin and say no one who thought ahead would live in any of those places.

If you apply your criteria throughout the world then not many places left to live as I don't know any immune to natural disaster and if they are then there's man made disaster. Don't turn this on the victim.

As to preparation, you have no idea how prepared or unprepared people here are as you've not been here. Most have prepared, but that doesn't mean a CAT 5 or CAT 4 even doesn't present issues.
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Old 09-08-2017, 01:49 PM   #280
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This whole preparation thing, or lack there of is difficult to understand.

It's stupid for example that people line up at Home Depot to buy plywood for their windows the week a hurricane is going to hit.

It's stupid that they are clearing the shelves of food.

It's stupid and proof that people are stupid that there is mass panic right now.

How about preparing for things like this? How about making personal choices to prepare?

I have talked to several friends and customers this week about this subject and everybody is amazed at the utter lack of thinking ahead that people do.

First off there is zero chance that anybody that thinks ahead would ever buy a house in an area that cold be storm surge flooded.

Anybody that thinks ahead would have hurricane covers for their windows. Shutters, or plywood, pre cut and marked with the window name.

Anybody that thinks ahead would have water stashed, and food, and a generator, and fuel, the list goes on...

Seems to me that the primary responsibility of an adult(s) is the protection of their family. I cannot imagine failing at that responsibility.

Modern men and women have lost their survival skills. No modern urban men and women have lost their survival skills. Lots of country folk are prepared. They build their houses on a hill. They stock the pantry. They know a storm is coming and can weather it out...Just like country folks have always done.
Kevin,

A very idealistic view, and totally unpractical. If we avoided all natural disasters, we would have to live on the moon.... and even it has issues.

We chose which give us the most benefit for our lives. We prepare for the worst and hope for the best, and life goes on. I'm totally happy with my Florida choice.... I prefer hurricanes and tornados to earthquakes and show storms.

We just need to make choice that fit our needs and safety levels. And personally, I wish the govt would butt out, and they often screw things up.
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