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Old 09-27-2022, 09:02 AM   #61
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09

Most models have it going south of Tampa Bay now, possibly Sarasota and below. That’s much better news for Tampa/LBK. More moves east are possible, allegedly.

Windy’s hurricane tracker NOAA, which must be an average of the models?
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GFS has it going into Cape Coral
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Euro south of Sarasota
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Old 09-27-2022, 10:21 AM   #62
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TF_BG View Post
Looks like I will be doing the same as healhustler, good luck Larry. We may have a little better chance than LBK, being at Twin Dolphin with floating docks.

Bob
Let's hope. We're on E dock - hope the first time we meet is not during a salvage planning meeting..
Stay safe
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Old 09-27-2022, 10:46 AM   #63
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Historically, the Euro has been one of the more accurate models. Regardless it’s looking better for the Tampa area and takes them out of the danger side. Still not good but better.
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Old 09-27-2022, 10:49 AM   #64
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Absolute mixed emotions this morning. The track has turned away from us, and I doubt we will get anything more than some rain and breeze. So that is joy. But on the other hand, the track has turned toward an area that I have a lot of fond memories of from my cruising days (1995-1999), and it looks as if it is going to be a bad one. So that is sadness.
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Old 09-27-2022, 11:01 AM   #65
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Let's hope. We're on E dock - hope the first time we meet is not during a salvage planning meeting..
Stay safe
I hope not, it is starting to look a little better for us, but for Ft. Myers.......... We are on the C dock.
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Old 09-27-2022, 12:45 PM   #66
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09

Since I’ve been obsessing over this storm for days now, I made this meme for my wife. She chuckled.

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Latest Tropical Tidbits video:

https://youtu.be/psxR5JRjCPA
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Old 09-27-2022, 01:38 PM   #67
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardude01 View Post
Since I’ve been obsessing over this storm for days now, I made this meme for my wife. She chuckled.

Attachment 132416

Latest Tropical Tidbits video:

https://youtu.be/psxR5JRjCPA



Here you go... something to do to pass some time:


https://johnspass.com/webcams/
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Old 09-27-2022, 04:11 PM   #68
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Very cool! Thanks for those links.
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Old 09-27-2022, 04:57 PM   #69
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This website is great.

https://cera.coastalrisk.live/

It has detailed info regarding surge. Zoom into the map for details. It may load slow. You can also go back and see historical maps based on previous tracks. Tampa Bay looked bad on NHC track 13 ( drop down at top of page). The current track looks very bad for Manasota key and surrounding area.

I prepped the boat for worst case in Tarpon Springs yesterday including removing anything valuable, tools, new parts etc, and doubled up and loosened the ropes as much as I dared for 8-10 foot surge. I think Im going to head back up and tighten them back up about 12 inches on either side. Current surge in my river is now only 2-3 feet. I am definitely grateful for that, but very worried for Venice, Boca Grande.

Just got done with house prep an hour ago. Exhausted.

Good luck everyone.
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Old 09-27-2022, 05:31 PM   #70
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Good luck to everyone in the path. Hopefully all the prep work is done and folks have evacuated.
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Old 09-27-2022, 06:50 PM   #71
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FishWeather shows the eye crossing over Englewood. Not good for me.
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Old 09-27-2022, 08:42 PM   #72
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Waiting for the 11 PM update. On Longboat Key (Sarasota) we were in the bullseye but easterly wobbles may have helped us get on the west side of the core. This would blow all the water out of the bay and likely leave my boat innthe mud as with Irma a few years ago. Hope my house windows hold up. Exhausted now and not sure how much I have left for damage emergencies.
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Old 09-28-2022, 03:27 AM   #73
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Ian is wobbling a smidge north now at 4:00 a.m.

The storm's path still shows it coming ashore south of Sarasota.

Hurricane Ian will then take 24 hours to get from Sarasota to Orlando, which obviously means that not even major hurricanes can beat the traffic on I-4.

Stay safe, friends to the south,
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Old 09-28-2022, 05:13 AM   #74
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I'm surprised no one has yet to blame it on global warming.
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Old 09-28-2022, 06:46 AM   #75
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I'm surprised no one has yet to blame it on global warming.
Please, let’s not go there.
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Old 09-28-2022, 07:39 AM   #76
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09

Well crap, now it’s almost a cat 5. Was hoping wind shear was going to disrupt it some before making landfall but looks like that’s not going to happen.

Peak surge for Ft Myers area 12-16’! [emoji15]

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Old 09-28-2022, 08:01 AM   #77
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So we put the shutters up on the house in Ft. Myers Saturday which now seems like a good thing. We moved to the boat in Jacksonville which now seems like a bad thing...

Moving to a hotel later today to ride it out. Hopefully we have one or the other to go back to after the storm! Take care everyone in Florida!
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Old 09-28-2022, 08:07 AM   #78
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Greetings,
Crap indeed! Stay safe, please.
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Old 09-28-2022, 09:16 AM   #79
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@cardude Thanks for posting storm surge info, was kind of low key thinking about that in back of my head. Looks like Jacksonville at 3-5 doesn't seem too bad.

Going to cross fingers and hope for best.
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Old 09-28-2022, 09:43 AM   #80
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In 2017, Jacksonville had record flooding from Irma. This was on last nights news specific for Jacksonville for what it’s worth. We are more optimistic.
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