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09-27-2022, 09:02 AM
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#61
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Guru
City: Victoria TX
Vessel Name: Bijou
Vessel Model: 2008 Island Packet PY/SP
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,290
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09
Most models have it going south of Tampa Bay now, possibly Sarasota and below. That’s much better news for Tampa/LBK. More moves east are possible, allegedly.
Windy’s hurricane tracker NOAA, which must be an average of the models?
GFS has it going into Cape Coral
Euro south of Sarasota
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09-27-2022, 10:21 AM
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#62
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Senior Member
City: Bradenton FL
Vessel Name: Black Horse
Vessel Model: Med Yachts 62
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 197
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TF_BG
Looks like I will be doing the same as healhustler, good luck Larry. We may have a little better chance than LBK, being at Twin Dolphin with floating docks.
Bob
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Let's hope. We're on E dock - hope the first time we meet is not during a salvage planning meeting..
Stay safe
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09-27-2022, 10:46 AM
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#63
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TF Site Team
City: Jacksonville
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,680
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Historically, the Euro has been one of the more accurate models. Regardless it’s looking better for the Tampa area and takes them out of the danger side. Still not good but better.
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09-27-2022, 10:49 AM
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#64
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Veteran Member
City: bainbridge
Vessel Name: Betty L
Vessel Model: 1973 Gulfstar
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 88
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Absolute mixed emotions this morning. The track has turned away from us, and I doubt we will get anything more than some rain and breeze. So that is joy. But on the other hand, the track has turned toward an area that I have a lot of fond memories of from my cruising days (1995-1999), and it looks as if it is going to be a bad one. So that is sadness.
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09-27-2022, 11:01 AM
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#65
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Member
City: Bradenton
Vessel Name: Cabella
Vessel Model: Great Harbour GH47
Join Date: Nov 2020
Posts: 16
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Quote:
Originally Posted by markpj23
Let's hope. We're on E dock - hope the first time we meet is not during a salvage planning meeting..
Stay safe
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I hope not, it is starting to look a little better for us, but for Ft. Myers.......... We are on the C dock.
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09-27-2022, 12:45 PM
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#66
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Guru
City: Victoria TX
Vessel Name: Bijou
Vessel Model: 2008 Island Packet PY/SP
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,290
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09
Since I’ve been obsessing over this storm for days now, I made this meme for my wife. She chuckled.
Latest Tropical Tidbits video:
https://youtu.be/psxR5JRjCPA
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09-27-2022, 01:38 PM
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#67
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Guru
City: Corpus Christi
Vessel Model: Willard Vega Horizon
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 500
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cardude01
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Here you go... something to do to pass some time:
https://johnspass.com/webcams/
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09-27-2022, 04:11 PM
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#68
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Guru
City: Victoria TX
Vessel Name: Bijou
Vessel Model: 2008 Island Packet PY/SP
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,290
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Very cool! Thanks for those links.
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09-27-2022, 04:57 PM
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#69
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Guru
City: NEW PORT RICHEY
Vessel Name: M/V Intrigue
Vessel Model: 1985 Tung Hwa Senator
Join Date: Dec 2019
Posts: 874
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This website is great.
https://cera.coastalrisk.live/
It has detailed info regarding surge. Zoom into the map for details. It may load slow. You can also go back and see historical maps based on previous tracks. Tampa Bay looked bad on NHC track 13 ( drop down at top of page). The current track looks very bad for Manasota key and surrounding area.
I prepped the boat for worst case in Tarpon Springs yesterday including removing anything valuable, tools, new parts etc, and doubled up and loosened the ropes as much as I dared for 8-10 foot surge. I think Im going to head back up and tighten them back up about 12 inches on either side. Current surge in my river is now only 2-3 feet. I am definitely grateful for that, but very worried for Venice, Boca Grande.
Just got done with house prep an hour ago. Exhausted.
Good luck everyone.
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09-27-2022, 05:31 PM
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#70
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Guru
City: Victoria TX
Vessel Name: Bijou
Vessel Model: 2008 Island Packet PY/SP
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,290
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Good luck to everyone in the path. Hopefully all the prep work is done and folks have evacuated.
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09-27-2022, 06:50 PM
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#71
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Guru
City: Cape May, NJ
Vessel Name: Irish Lady
Vessel Model: Monk 36
Join Date: Dec 2007
Posts: 4,964
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FishWeather shows the eye crossing over Englewood. Not good for me.
__________________
Archie
Irish Lady
1984 Monk 36 Hull #46
Currently in Cape May, NJ
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09-27-2022, 08:42 PM
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#72
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Guru
City: Longboat Key, FL
Vessel Name: Bucky
Vessel Model: Krogen Manatee 36 North Sea
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 5,196
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Waiting for the 11 PM update. On Longboat Key (Sarasota) we were in the bullseye but easterly wobbles may have helped us get on the west side of the core. This would blow all the water out of the bay and likely leave my boat innthe mud as with Irma a few years ago. Hope my house windows hold up. Exhausted now and not sure how much I have left for damage emergencies.
__________________
Larry
"When life gets hard, eat marshmallows”.
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09-28-2022, 03:27 AM
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#73
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Guru
City: Hernando Beach
Vessel Model: Seaway
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 506
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Ian is wobbling a smidge north now at 4:00 a.m.
The storm's path still shows it coming ashore south of Sarasota.
Hurricane Ian will then take 24 hours to get from Sarasota to Orlando, which obviously means that not even major hurricanes can beat the traffic on I-4.
Stay safe, friends to the south,
Mrs. Trombley
__________________
Land was created to provide a place for boats to visit.
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09-28-2022, 05:13 AM
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#74
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Guru
City: Aventura FL
Vessel Name: Kinja
Vessel Model: American Tug 34 #116 2008
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 10,595
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I'm surprised no one has yet to blame it on global warming.
__________________
Two days out the hospital after a week in the hospital because of a significant heart attack.
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09-28-2022, 06:46 AM
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#75
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TF Site Team
City: Jacksonville
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,680
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Quote:
Originally Posted by OldDan1943
I'm surprised no one has yet to blame it on global warming.
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Please, let’s not go there.
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09-28-2022, 07:39 AM
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#76
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Guru
City: Victoria TX
Vessel Name: Bijou
Vessel Model: 2008 Island Packet PY/SP
Join Date: Nov 2012
Posts: 5,290
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Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09
Well crap, now it’s almost a cat 5. Was hoping wind shear was going to disrupt it some before making landfall but looks like that’s not going to happen.
Peak surge for Ft Myers area 12-16’! [emoji15]
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09-28-2022, 08:01 AM
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#77
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Senior Member
City: Ft. Myers, FL.
Vessel Name: Chasing 80
Vessel Model: Chris Craft Constellation 460
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 142
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So we put the shutters up on the house in Ft. Myers Saturday which now seems like a good thing. We moved to the boat in Jacksonville which now seems like a bad thing...
Moving to a hotel later today to ride it out. Hopefully we have one or the other to go back to after the storm! Take care everyone in Florida!
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09-28-2022, 08:07 AM
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#78
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Enigma
City: Slicker?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 16,563
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Greetings,
Crap indeed! Stay safe, please.
__________________
RTF
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09-28-2022, 09:16 AM
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#79
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Veteran Member
City: Austin, Texas
Vessel Name: Golden Eye
Vessel Model: Burger 52 LRC
Join Date: Sep 2019
Posts: 88
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@cardude Thanks for posting storm surge info, was kind of low key thinking about that in back of my head. Looks like Jacksonville at 3-5 doesn't seem too bad.
Going to cross fingers and hope for best.
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09-28-2022, 09:43 AM
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#80
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TF Site Team
City: Jacksonville
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,680
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In 2017, Jacksonville had record flooding from Irma. This was on last nights news specific for Jacksonville for what it’s worth. We are more optimistic.
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