|
|
09-23-2022, 04:25 PM
|
#1
|
TF Site Team
City: Jacksonville
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,670
|
Hurricane Ian was Tropical Storm Ian was Tropical Depression 09
Not looking good. Living in Florida you have to expect these but one could hope that the forecasters are wrong. Crap!
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 04:36 PM
|
#2
|
Enigma
City: Slicker?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 16,540
|
Greetings,
Yep. Don't look good.
__________________
RTF
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 05:57 PM
|
#3
|
Guru
City: Boston Area
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 2,605
|
If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 06:15 PM
|
#4
|
Guru
City: Saint Petersburg
Vessel Name: Weebles
Vessel Model: 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 7,166
|
The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.
The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.
Peter
__________________
_______________________________________
Cruising our 1970 Willard 36 trawler from California to Florida
Join our Instagram page @MVWeebles to follow along
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 06:29 PM
|
#5
|
Veteran Member
City: Up and down the US east coast
Vessel Name: Calypso
Vessel Model: Heritage East 36 Sundeck
Join Date: Dec 2021
Posts: 88
|
I truly hate the fact that the current cone has the 2PM Weds "M" right on top of us. We've got the house sold and are ready to head out - Buyer's walkthrough is scheduled for Weds morning and closing is scheduled for Thurs AM. Hoping this storm will move to one side or the other...
__________________
Daz
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 06:46 PM
|
#6
|
TF Site Team
City: Jacksonville
Join Date: Nov 2008
Posts: 11,670
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benthic2
If you are in Jaxsonville, you have a lot less to worry about than those in the south west parts of Florida.......The storm will weaken considerably as it travels over land without the warm water to sustain it.......and 8 or 9 days out things can change drastically.
|
I agree but disagree and hope you’re right that things can change
Winds and/or/storm surge plus winds are a big issue when a hurricane hits land but even when the storm is weakening or 100 miles away you can still be screwed. Jacksonville had 250 year flooding in 2017 with Irma. We live at less than 5’ above sea level.
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 07:14 PM
|
#7
|
Senior Member
City: Bradenton FL
Vessel Name: Black Horse
Vessel Model: Med Yachts 62
Join Date: Mar 2021
Posts: 196
|
Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...
Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 07:16 PM
|
#8
|
Moderator Emeritus
City: Au Gres, MI
Vessel Name: Black Dog
Vessel Model: Formula 41PC
Join Date: Jul 2015
Posts: 21,129
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by markpj23
Spent the day taking down canvas, stowing deck chairs - all the fun stuff. If the current cone of uncertainty (remember agent 99?) holds true we will see a Cat 3 pass right over our marina Really surprised that I was about the only one doing boat preps there today - my guess is tomorrow will be different...
Preparing the best I can and hoping for the best. Admiral and I will watch it all on the news while in Atlanta. Just too old and grumpy to deal with this hurricane crap on-scene anymore
|
We are doing boat prep too, except for the winter…
__________________
Boat Nut:
If you are one there is no explanation necessary.
If you aren’t one, there is no explanation possible.
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 10:14 PM
|
#9
|
Guru
City: Saint Petersburg
Vessel Name: Weebles
Vessel Model: 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 7,166
|
Now TS Ian. No detectable change in course.
__________________
_______________________________________
Cruising our 1970 Willard 36 trawler from California to Florida
Join our Instagram page @MVWeebles to follow along
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 10:41 PM
|
#10
|
Enigma
City: Slicker?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 16,540
|
__________________
RTF
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 10:55 PM
|
#11
|
Guru
City: Corpus Christi
Vessel Model: Willard Vega Horizon
Join Date: May 2021
Posts: 500
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by RT Firefly
|
Moron weathermen (weatherpersons) could not pronounce Hermoine...
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 11:18 PM
|
#12
|
Enigma
City: Slicker?
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 16,540
|
Greetings,
Windy forecasts it will cross Florida from Cape Coral to Satellite Beach then pay a visit Myrtle Beach, SC. Wherever it goes, stay safe. I will extend the same wish to those that are in the path of, now, TS Fiona...
https://halifax.citynews.ca/local-ne...-today-5861239
__________________
RTF
|
|
|
09-23-2022, 11:31 PM
|
#13
|
Guru
City: Aventura FL
Vessel Name: Kinja
Vessel Model: American Tug 34 #116 2008
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 10,595
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by rt firefly
greetings,
yep. Don't look good.
|
lol rt.
__________________
Two days out the hospital after a week in the hospital because of a significant heart attack.
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 07:10 AM
|
#14
|
Guru
City: Northport
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 2,046
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvweebles
The thing I hate about hurricane forecasts is the hope and prayer hand-wringing because it's a zero sum game. Right now, the "M" is right around Sarasota, which puts St Petersburg on the clean side, which is good for us, bad for Sarasota.
The models have a surprising amount of convergence right now.
Peter Attachment 132287
|
With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 07:25 AM
|
#15
|
Guru
City: Saint Petersburg
Vessel Name: Weebles
Vessel Model: 1970 Willard 36 Trawler
Join Date: Mar 2019
Posts: 7,166
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by smitty477
With a Cat 4 it will be problematic no matter which side if its close enough and you are at or near the coast.
|
All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.
Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now
Peter
__________________
_______________________________________
Cruising our 1970 Willard 36 trawler from California to Florida
Join our Instagram page @MVWeebles to follow along
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 07:50 AM
|
#16
|
Guru
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 5,034
|
Yes better to be on the dry side.
__________________
Jay Leonard
Ex boats: 1983 40 Albin trunk cabin, 1978 Mainship 34 Model 1
New Port Richey, Fl
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 08:08 AM
|
#17
|
Guru
City: Aventura FL
Vessel Name: Kinja
Vessel Model: American Tug 34 #116 2008
Join Date: Oct 2017
Posts: 10,595
|
I still remember when someone asked me, "What do you do when it rains?" to which I replied, "I generally stay inside and dry."
__________________
Two days out the hospital after a week in the hospital because of a significant heart attack.
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 08:16 AM
|
#18
|
Guru
City: Ft Pierce
Vessel Name: Sold
Vessel Model: Was an Albin/PSN 40
Join Date: Oct 2011
Posts: 28,119
|
I think I remember that the dangerous semi circle's real power is partially defined by the speed of the storm when it hits.
On the other hand, surface winds in the lesser semicircle are are often degraded by land based obstructions,, except where funneling occurs or tornadic activity....
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 08:34 AM
|
#19
|
Guru
City: Jacksonville Beach, FL
Join Date: May 2015
Posts: 1,248
|
If the present forecast track holds, the west coast of Florida from the Keys to around Bradenton is in for major punishment. But, if the eyewall drifts just 40 miles to the west of the forecast track, it will make landfall someplace north of Clearwater. In that case, Tampa Bay itself will finally experience its "perfect storm" scenario, with hurricane-force winds out of the southwest pushing water through the Bay entrance causing major flooding all the way up its rivers and estuaries. If it doesn't happen with Hurricane Ian, it will eventually - just a matter of time. I love the Tampa Bay area - lived there for 25 years - but its vulnerability to this particular hurricane orientation is scary.
__________________
"Less judgment than wit is more sail than ballast. Yet it must be confessed that wit give an edge to sense, and recommends it extremely." ~ William Penn
|
|
|
09-24-2022, 08:34 AM
|
#20
|
Guru
City: Northport
Join Date: Aug 2015
Posts: 2,046
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by mvweebles
All relative. Being 20 miles to the left of the centerline is a helluva better than being 20 miles to the right. May not make it good, but definitely makes a BIG difference.
Latest NHC projection attached. Remarkably steady forecast.......for now
Peter Attachment 132299
|
Interactive SLOSH map3, for modeling...
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/nationalsurge/?text#map
|
|
|
|
|
Thread Tools |
Search this Thread |
|
|
Display Modes |
Linear Mode
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
» Trawler Discussions |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|