Hurricane Florence

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Just remember,....at any moment a boat can catch fire or start sinking...doesn't have to be a storm....

So at what point will anyone take a little risk to save their boat...and quite possibly their lives?

Managing risks is what it is all about, when they become overwhelming, unmanageable or just plain to much work...different story.

The word safety is over used and misunderstood way too often..... In both directions.
 
Mandatory evacuation orders for east coast of North and South Carolina.
What will happen is one small area is going to be destroyed and not the whole coast.
Then what always happens after the storm people who left will be wanting to go home and be prevented from reentry.
If it was me, I simply would not evacuate, unless I knew for certain where it was going to hit, like me and at what level of tide, high or low.

Isabel hit our area hard, I stayed. During the storm huge trees fell over, crushed their homes, right thru brick walls. Every few minutes, you would hear a thumping crash, there goes another tree. Our trees were too small and still are to fall and crush the house. Boat weathered the storm ok at Wormley Creek Marina. As I drove away, I saw the water piled up over the docks, I set the ropes loose to let the boat rise. Several boats sank at that marina. Mine got hung up on the rail, some metal screw hook had been screwed into the piling. I came back at a high tide a couple days later and had to lever it off. railing survived with a tiny dent on the underside. If I had waited any longer, the water would have dropped and the rail pulled out. Power was out at the house for 10 days. Ran the gen the whole time.
I knew the power would be out at the marina, so I bought a new 8D just for the storm and the pumps.
 
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Points well taken on "hurricane hole"...

IF you are dead certain which way the wind will come from
IF you are dead certain how strong it will be
IF you are dead certain on what the surge will be
If you are dead certain on how the above will affect your chosen surroundings and your boat and your ground tackle

No? then you start taking the "IFs" and the "certains" out of the above...

For those of you who have ridden out tropical storms and Cat 1's understand the exponential effect of the velocity of 2's 3's and 4's.

And ask yourself if appropriate... people are evacuating their houses all around me and I'm staying on a BOAT?!
 
Just throwing this out, in my experience the National Hurricane Center is getting pretty good at predicting hurricane direction of travel. They often underestimate the strength. Always prepare for the worst.

Following is the hurricane plan for the coral Reef Yacht Club in Miami Florida. It does require removal of boats.
 

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I think everyone has to make their own decisions. Normally, where I live, I would not evacuate. However, I know the history of the area and of the specific location. However, surge at my home has never exceeded six feet. If suddenly there was a real possibility of 15-20' along the ICW and canals, I'd leave.

So, I'm not one to normally leave, but Florence is exceptional. There are three major risks-the winds, storm surge, and fresh water flooding. The coastal areas of NC and SC are very exposed and the risk goes far inland. Worst case for Florence is CAT 4 when it hits, 15-20' surge, and then slows drastically and up to 20" of rain inland. This storm is equal to the worst to ever hit this area and it's on top of record wet conditions to start with. The point is this may be historically destructive. Therefore, I think a lot of people who have never and thought they would never evacuate have to reconsider it. The hope is they evacuate for nothing. However, we look at Harvey and Katrina and Maria and wish we had done better at evacuating. Starting evacuation on Tuesday is a serious gamble risking looking stupid when it turns out to not have been needed. Not starting it early enough and the storm reaching it's maximum level is far worse though and gets discussion of dereliction of duty.

If I lived there I'd probably have been stubborn and said I'd never evacuate, but I would now likely be swallowing those words and pushing my ego aside and leaving early. Our family in Myrtle Beach has lived there all their life and never evacuated. They're at our home in Fort Lauderdale waiting for us to arrive tonight and join them. I get frustrated when a CAT 1 hurricane is on it's way and everyone is yelling for us to evacuate, but this storm has the potential of setting records. It scares me.

As to boats, there may be a lot lost and it won't be because someone did something wrong or poorly, but because of an extraordinary event.
 
Following is the hurricane plan for the coral Reef Yacht Club in Miami Florida. It does require removal of boats.

I don't know how they get by with that or that they can enforce it. I don't know where they expect people to move the boats nor why they would want someone to subject themselves to risk of health or life to do so.
 
Some of us, well at least me, have been thinking about, calculating and testing weather to a point for many decades to the point where all those "what ifs" are nothing but potential manageable risks.

Granted to get most risks within my comfort level where I would ride out a hurricane is not possible.... and therefore I wouldnt.

But there are holes and canes and times that I might, if the risks are managed to my satisfaction.

I also spent a lot of time at the professional level discussing evacuation plans for boats and helos in the USCG. My boat was usually nearby and I benefited from many professionals discussing how to manage the risks.

Do I recommend riding out hurricanes on a boat?...generally not, but to say it shouldn't ever be done is not understanding the very basics of risk management.
 
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I don't know how they get by with that or that they can enforce it. I don't know where they expect people to move the boats nor why they would want someone to subject themselves to risk of health or life to do so.

They want the boats out at least 48 hours before the expected landfall of the storm. Not much risk at that point. Most of the members arrange ahead of time for dockage up the Miami River or Coral Gables Waterway.
 
I would definately leave the area of impact. Forecasting has been good. I did for Bertha, Andrew, Francis.... We have an empty canal up here (Erie). If the boat is able, why be messing with dock lines, etc with a CAT 4 to 5 inbound. makes no sense. I went to Cat Cay right after Andrew. My eyes were wide open with that mess of sportfish ON THE BOTTOM....
 
I don't know how they get by with that or that they can enforce it. I don't know where they expect people to move the boats nor why they would want someone to subject themselves to risk of health or life to do so.

This is in regards to Coral Reef. This is a "Community" between Key Largo and Miami. Google Earth it. This where the 1% have tropical houses/condos so they can still be close to mainland USA. They just pick up the phone and tell the crew to "move it!" No stress or danger at all--for the owners! Most of those boats have captains if not full crews, and no doubt have pre-planned actions and docking/anchoring spots.

While not ideal the Keys have a built-in advantage that many don't realize (even most who live there). They can place their boat on a "clean" quadrant of the storm on lee side of island and anchor to mangroves, once they have a good idea of the path. (unless the storm is going to travel "along" the land).

As far as "being able to enforce it". Many marinas down there have you sign a hurricane agreement before they'll rent/sell you a slip. Hurricanes can play hell with marina infrastructure--its multiplied with boats adding to those forces.
 
As far as "being able to enforce it". Many marinas down there have you sign a hurricane agreement before they'll rent/sell you a slip. Hurricanes can play hell with marina infrastructure--its multiplied with boats adding to those forces.

Actually, forcing boat owners to remove their boat due to a storm, whether they signed an agreement to do so or not, is illegal in Florida.
 
perhaps, but they would have a document showing you broke the "contract" and could evict you. There are always many people waiting on slips down there.

Personally if given the choice I wouldn't leave my boat in a marina, especially if not staying onboard or close enough to check on it frequently. If the boat is appropriately sized for your vessel its impossible to give enough slack to account for surge and keep it from riding onto the dock or just laying against the pilings and chewing itself up. Unless you are at a really snazzy marina with concrete/steel pilings and floating docks that are strong enough to tie to.
 
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Actually, forcing boat owners to remove their boat due to a storm, whether they signed an agreement to do so or not, is illegal in Florida.

I'm no student of Fla law, but I don't think it is as simple as you stated. In maritime law, you cannot deny a ship safe harbor in a storm. But in a marina with contracts you can certainly require them to go elsewhere well prior to the arrival of the storm.

If they refuse to go, that's where it gets complicated. Can't really kick them out, but contract might not be renewed afterward.
 
At the beginning, the forecast shows that the Florence will curve North and away from US coast. She is going in straight line for Florida and Georgia. They have prediction that will curve North again and go for SC,NC and VA. What about if she keep going straight?
 
Twisted I think you’re thinking of Ocean Reef. Coral Reef is a yacht club located in the Coconut Grove suburb of Miami. I know of at least two occasions when there has been about a ten foot storm surge there. The docks are fixed, not floating. It’s not a good place to leave a boat in a hurricane.
 
Twisted I think you’re thinking of Ocean Reef. Coral Reef is a yacht club located in the Coconut Grove suburb of Miami. I know of at least two occasions when there has been about a ten foot storm surge there. The docks are fixed, not floating. It’s not a good place to leave a boat in a hurricane.

I was too. Still same law applies. However, not a place to be.
 
Please stay stay safe guys and gals. All can be replaced accept you.
 
I'm no student of Fla law, but I don't think it is as simple as you stated. .

Florida Statute 327.59 Marina evacuations.—
(1) After June 1, 1994, marinas may not adopt, maintain, or enforce policies pertaining to evacuation of vessels which require vessels to be removed from marinas following the issuance of a hurricane watch or warning, in order to ensure that protecting the lives and safety of vessel owners is placed before interests of protecting property.
 
I'm no student of Fla law, but I don't think it is as simple as you stated. In maritime law, you cannot deny a ship safe harbor in a storm. But in a marina with contracts you can certainly require them to go elsewhere well prior to the arrival of the storm.

If they refuse to go, that's where it gets complicated. Can't really kick them out, but contract might not be renewed afterward.

Known as "forced Majure" probably have the spelling wrong but its basically means you can't be denied entry or forced out of port because of WX or mechanical issues..I don't know if its been applied to yacht,hurricane situations but..
 
Just throwing this out, in my experience the National Hurricane Center is getting pretty good at predicting hurricane direction of travel. They often underestimate the strength. Always prepare for the worst.

Following is the hurricane plan for the coral Reef Yacht Club in Miami Florida. It does require removal of boats.

This hurricane plan for Coral Reef Yacht club is in direct violation of Florida state law which clearly states that “marinas may not adopt, maintain or enforce policies pertaining to the evacuation of vessels during a hurricane watch or warning.” Perhaps there are different rules for yacht clubs versus marinas.
 
I'm not a well trained weather guesser though I have been in a fair bit over the years. I read this today and thought it might interest some folks around here. Appreciate any learned members comments...

Cliff notes -

Opening - "If I am right, this will be the most costly disaster for the Carolinas and Virginias on record. In addition, given our winter forecast, we expect the core of the cold and snow, relative to average, to be near these same areas, which for them means this could very well be the most extreme six-month period on record. A hurricane as strong as Hugo or Hazel, flooding rains due to Florence’s slow movement, the possibility of an exceptional winter — you can’t get much more extreme than that."

Close - "But remember the bottom line: Florence was predicted in advance, and the misery this is going to cause should be front and center. Hopefully, the response is ready to meet the challenge, which for the Carolina's and Virginia's is liable to be the costliest on record when the flooding is factored in."

https://patriotpost.us/opinion/58148-hurricane-florence-how-we-got-here
 
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Forecast for New Bern took a big turn for the worse last night. Calling for 70 to 90 mph Thursday night. Sustained 45+ for a day. Lots of rain. I'm on my way to LA right now for a big wireless industry convention, Ann is heading north tommorow to stay with friends.
This is one of those times I definitely am glad we don't own the big boat anymore.
 
Yep... we are in the crosshairs now. We are inland in Cary, but boat is in New Bern. Not sure how to feel about it. Hopefully the winds die quickly when it makes landfall and the river doesn’t rise too far.
 
I dont know how many remember the rains and flooding from the one hurricane in the carolina's back in the 90's or 2000's that knocked out all the ATMs for over a week. You couldnt use them for days either as debit or CC.
 

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