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Old 09-12-2018, 09:15 PM   #161
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They were saying (weather people) they saw 83' waves out there. Measurements taken by a satellite. That's a little steep. I wonder of there are any weather buoys out there when it gets closer.
Don't know what the depths are close to shore, but waves break when they feel the bottom. My recollection is that when the height of the wave exceeds the depth of the water, it breaks. So, 80' waves are probably breaking and discharging their energy more than a mile off shore. They're not good for boats in the open ocean, but probably much less of a factor on land.

Ted
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:01 PM   #162
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For NC, Looks like a lot of water will be pushed up into New Bern, etc... that is where water goes I suppose, up a creek, being forced up by the hurricane and rain.

So when you go further inland, the storm surge gets worse than along the coast? And they kind fool you with the wording, storm surge is not including tides, so you have to add in the tide to surge to get a true height of water.


Daughter used to work at the hospital in Greenville, now is in Oregon. Greenville is flat land, like a pancake.
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane...south-carolina
It can sure work that way. In Katrina, my wife's house, located on a bayou and with an elevation of forty feet, had three feet of water over the floor, with a storm surge that was only recorded as around 32 feet.
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:16 PM   #163
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Don't know what the depths are close to shore, but waves break when they feel the bottom. My recollection is that when the height of the wave exceeds the depth of the water, it breaks. So, 80' waves are probably breaking and discharging their energy more than a mile off shore. They're not good for boats in the open ocean, but probably much less of a factor on land.

Ted
I figure and believe they will go down. Just the power of this storm now and hearing they measured that is pretty neat. See tomorrow when it is here.
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Old 09-12-2018, 10:38 PM   #164
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Stall, churn, flood, waves and dump rain

Wilmington is a ghost town, light traffic, gas is available, and BigBloFlo is going to drop a lot of rain. Winds are down, thank God! If storm surge isn't epic, a lot of property will be spared.

Towed my boat 100 miles inland on Monday and put in in a warehouse at Fuquay Storage.

There are a lot of us feeling relieved that it isn't a strengthening Cat 4. That was spooky.
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Old 09-13-2018, 07:16 AM   #165
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While it appears the wind levels have dropped some, this is looking like another epic flood for Conway, Socastee, and the Waccamaw river area in SC. They went through this two years ago with a hurricane that dumped a tremendous amount of rain in the "Low Country".

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Old 09-13-2018, 08:03 AM   #166
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This might make the snowbirding trip an offshore one from Morehead City to Charleston or Savannah.

Getting out around Cape Fear could be a treat!
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:18 AM   #167
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Read a quote from a FEMA official last night (somewhere). I apologize if it was here and I am repeating something from a previous poster.


When asked about the weakening of the storm from some of the earlier projections, paraphrase of his response was:


It is good that the storm is weakening, however keep in mind it is the difference between getting hit by a semi truck instead of getting hit by a train. Both are bad.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:19 AM   #168
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This might make the snowbirding trip an offshore one from Morehead City to Charleston or Savannah.

Getting out around Cape Fear could be a treat!
Was thinking the same thing. I likely won't be there till November, so maybe things will be better by then.

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Old 09-13-2018, 08:19 AM   #169
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Don't know what the depths are close to shore, but waves break when they feel the bottom. My recollection is that when the height of the wave exceeds the depth of the water, it breaks. So, 80' waves are probably breaking and discharging their energy more than a mile off shore. They're not good for boats in the open ocean, but probably much less of a factor on land.

Ted
Waves can begin to break for a number of reasons but when the relationship is to the depth of the water they will begin to steepen when the height of the wave is less than 3/4 the depth of the water. They will also steepen and begin to break when the height is greater than one seventh the wavelength which is more typical in wind driven storms like these.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:54 AM   #170
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Read a quote from a FEMA official last night (somewhere). I apologize if it was here and I am repeating something from a previous poster.


When asked about the weakening of the storm from some of the earlier projections, paraphrase of his response was:


It is good that the storm is weakening, however keep in mind it is the difference between getting hit by a semi truck instead of getting hit by a train. Both are bad.
The ability of buildings to withstand and survive the wind is increased by the decrease in the wind speeds. So, one of the three impacts to the area is not quite as bad. However, even on that one, we've seen a lot of wind damage previously in the storm area even from much lesser storms. Still a relatively new building or home has a better chance of withstanding the weaker winds.

The other two impacts though haven't improved and that's the coastal damage from the surge and the coastal and inland damage from the rain and flooding.

Looking at recovery, it's hard to anticipate. You see areas like Fernandina where there is little sign of progress but then other areas hit more recently fully recovered. I thought FPL with a lot of outside help did a tremendous job in Florida last year. However, I don't know that the same can happen in SC and NC, especially with the number of roads that may be impassable. We've seen roads blocked for several days and even a week from much smaller storms. We're talking about dams in jeopardy far inland. Those around Columbia are still very vulnerable as are areas along all the smaller rivers running through both states. I recall after Matthew those who couldn't return to their homes for days. One other comment I heard serves as a warning too. The water that accumulates quickly in some of these areas isn't water for very long. It's very soon sewage. In some areas it may even be toxic waste. Then when it comes to recovery, most homes are covered by insurance on hurricanes. However, a smaller percentage have flood insurance and as you move inland it becomes a very small percentage. On top of that there are many areas facing this flood that are economically not strong.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:16 AM   #171
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A big element that is getting ignored somewhat is the prolonged time this event will be taking place. In New Bern we will have +30 winds for 36 hours. And +40 (peaking at 75) for a day. Coupled with the rain and already moist ground, and a heavily wooded terrain, the damage from trees and limbs will be extensive, and I have little hope for our home surviving that.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:31 AM   #172
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I’m not sure of the dates this covers but the numbers are pretty scary considering the amount of rain predicted.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:34 AM   #173
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A big element that is getting ignored somewhat is the prolonged time this event will be taking place. In New Bern we will have +30 winds for 36 hours. And +40 (peaking at 75) for a day. Coupled with the rain and already moist ground, and a heavily wooded terrain, the damage from trees and limbs will be extensive, and I have little hope for our home surviving that.
I do not know if you are still in New Bern or where your home is but please be safe.
Our concern in New Bern is storm surge - if you have not looked it up suggest you utilize the Slosh map version 2 and get a feel for the affects for that location. Again hope your safe as a few limbs can often be dealt with but surge and flash flooding are much different.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:42 AM   #174
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Limbs?

Isnt that area pretty famous for tall, thick pines with a propensity to blow over due to small root balls and sandy soil?

My sister in Wilmington had one come down on her townhouse during one of the last, lesser canes. Its the only thing really worrying her this go around too.
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:50 AM   #175
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A big element that is getting ignored somewhat is the prolonged time this event will be taking place. In New Bern we will have +30 winds for 36 hours. And +40 (peaking at 75) for a day. Coupled with the rain and already moist ground, and a heavily wooded terrain, the damage from trees and limbs will be extensive, and I have little hope for our home surviving that.
That's also going to influence the damage of storm surge where the peak surge will run through 4 high tides.

There will be homes that seem to survive the storm but then do get damaged heavily by limbs, trees, and other debris.

The other factor in damage to homes and property is the length of time before anyone can return to it to do any damage control. The damage to a window or roof may not be even seen for days or a week or longer. I recall the frustration of those on Hilton Head and other islands in that area when they couldn't get to their homes for so long. In 2015, after a storm, you couldn't get back to the coasts of SE NC or NE SC for days and that wasn't even a named storm.

There will be a huge impact too of those who find their livelihood destroyed. Entire towns will be shut down for extended periods of time. I saw an interview with the mayor of Carolina Beach and all I thought about was what we saw in Rockport, TX after Harvey. Homes, businesses, schools.
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:49 AM   #176
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:11 AM   #177
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Was thinking the same thing. I likely won't be there till November, so maybe things will be better by then.

Ted
This area is very resilient. Unless there is undredged shoaling in the icww, November would be a lovely time to cruise through.

WB calm before the storm, about 2 hours before high tide today.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:50 AM   #178
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Undredged shoaling?

After Sandy, there were cars, trucks, homes, boats, docks, whole trees, shopping carts, tin sheds, regular sheds, etc...etc.... You name it, it was in the NJ ICW.

Can't dredge till that stuff is out and that took many months....

I am already planning how to bypass most of that ICW next month...hard for me, but doable...not looking forward to going out to the Frying Pan Shoals cut though.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:51 AM   #179
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Live cam from Frying Pan tower ( 34 miles off Cape Fear )

https://www.cnn.com/specials/live-video-3
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:54 AM   #180
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Local radar shows rain bands north of Wilmington and moving south, south-west fairly quickly.



Stay safe everyone.
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