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Old 09-11-2018, 09:25 PM   #121
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The mangroves are your friend, marinas not necessarily so.
Stay safe
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:49 AM   #122
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We were planning our drive south, Maryland to Florida, via I-95 Thursday and Friday. Instead, going to wait it out. May try it early next week.
God bless all in harms way!
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:25 AM   #123
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New track possible, will come in around Wilmington, then head south raking along the coast. Parents house is in Myrtle Beach, which the hurricane will now come over their house. Their expected wind speeds went from 50 to 100 mph overnight. They are 25 feet up from sea level and 5 miles from the coast.


https://weather.com/safety/hurricane...t-southeast-us
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:40 AM   #124
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Right now.....anything is possible as I think even the model guidance is grasping at straws for consistency.

Those praying for a miracle are getting it....keep praying.
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Old 09-12-2018, 06:48 AM   #125
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Great piece of advice from Passagemaker this morning. If you are evacuating, take your EPIRB and PLBs with you, the Coast Guard will be busy enough.
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:12 AM   #126
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For NC, Looks like a lot of water will be pushed up into New Bern, etc... that is where water goes I suppose, up a creek, being forced up by the hurricane and rain.

So when you go further inland, the storm surge gets worse than along the coast? And they kind fool you with the wording, storm surge is not including tides, so you have to add in the tide to surge to get a true height of water.


Daughter used to work at the hospital in Greenville, now is in Oregon. Greenville is flat land, like a pancake.
https://weather.com/safety/hurricane...south-carolina
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:13 AM   #127
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To those in the paths predicted....don't forget to prep for your furry/feathered family. Grab a couple weeks of food for them today if you can. Even if you are evacuating. It'll only add to everyone's stress (including your pet's) if you have to start feeding them something different. I.E. it could get messy if they develop diarrhea particularly on the road or in a hotel where you can't get them outside at a second's notice.
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:27 AM   #128
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Live Cam
New Bern Grand Marina in Craven County North Carolina has multiple online webcams. I plan to check and see how they are fairing over next few days, if they actually stay online.
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Old 09-12-2018, 08:58 AM   #129
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This sucks. At 6am my local news said it would make landfall around North Myrtle Beach and head straight for my area, Spartanburg, SC. I hope it spins itself out and loses power before coming ashore. This is reminding me to much of Hugo in the late 80's.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:13 AM   #130
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https://youtu.be/XK5PQdbPR3s

Almost too late now to escape by water.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:15 AM   #131
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Quote:
Originally Posted by menzies View Post
Great piece of advice from Passagemaker this morning. If you are evacuating, take your EPIRB and PLBs with you, the Coast Guard will be busy enough.
Couldn't you just turn them off?
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:45 AM   #132
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And wrap them in tin foil....that was one of the last suggestions from NOAA.

Also suggested when shilling the unit.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:49 AM   #133
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This sucks. At 6am my local news said it would make landfall around North Myrtle Beach and head straight for my area, Spartanburg, SC. I hope it spins itself out and loses power before coming ashore. This is reminding me to much of Hugo in the late 80's.
Very similar to Hugo in it's threat to SC. May be less force and more rain and this is on top of already soaked land.

Just think back to 2015 and the early October floods. The roads were impassable for days.

In many ways this is very similar to Harvey.

The official forecast is very much like the Euro model was yesterday.

Also concern for the NC mountains and mudslides.

If you follow local news you find unique situations in each community. Hospital in Myrtle Beach already being evacuated. Little River water and sewage to be shut off in a couple of hours. One more ferry transporting from Ocracoke. Prison in evacuation zone not being evacuated and concerns over the many hazardous waste sites about which FEMA had no real comment other than mediation afterwards.

At this point, most areas of SC and NC face potential between bad and catastrophic. There are not many coastal areas or even eastern areas that won't be significantly impacted. For some, it will be storm surge, others wind, and others fresh water flooding. I see a sense of relief in Virginia and further north, but that's all a matter of degree. Many areas that are not going to be struck now by a hurricane are still looking at the possibility of a slow moving storm passing through and dropping a lot of rain on them.

I see one positive and that is the earlier start of evacuation. SC was evacuating even when official forecasts had greater impact on NC. Now, a concern, are people evacuating far enough. Not sure anyone knows what that is. However, we saw many during Irma who moved to Orlando and Jacksonville and experienced tremendous flooding in those areas.

One thing I haven't seen as much of as we're use to is shelters. They're the hope of those who wait too long to move as far as they'd like, but also for those who simply can't afford to evacuate as they wish. Eastern NC and SC both have a lot of poor people for whom fuel and transportation may not be affordable, motels are not, and restaurants are not. I see where Coast RTA is using their buses for some level of evacuation in the Myrtle Beach and Conway area, but the sidebar to that is they're ending their evacuation services early this afternoon.

Hurricanes like this take a huge toll on a lot of people and can't be measured only by dollars of damage or even loss of lives.
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Old 09-12-2018, 09:58 AM   #134
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Yes. It's looking bad. I hope for no loss of life.
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Old 09-12-2018, 11:08 AM   #135
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Looking at the National Weather Service data against another report I heard of 80'+ swells inside the hurricane. Nice site with clickable data points. Not sure I believe the 80 footers, but they are having 50 foot seas based on NWS info:



https://digital.weather.gov/?zoom=3&...rue&barbs=true
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Old 09-12-2018, 11:29 AM   #136
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If you are so inclined, you can donate to the Red Cross before the storm hits. Their website allows you to specifically designate your donation be for Florence.

Also, they need blood and platelets.
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Old 09-12-2018, 11:55 AM   #137
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I subscribe to a private weather service. Yesterday they brought up the south trend. Today looks like official sources are talking a southern movement.


Today service I use has put GA in the mix for impact, with mention of possible NE FL.


As we all know, there are no absolutes - all of this is just "forecast" - not actual. Best course is to be prepared whether you are in NC or SC.
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Old 09-12-2018, 12:07 PM   #138
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After watching some video of people waiting in stores for hours for bottled water deliveries I thought I'd add my 2...and that's probably what its worth.

for 99.9% of our country water from the tap in your house is perfectly drinkable. Get some "clean" containers (5 gallon buckets, used milk/water jugs, whatever. scrub them clean and rinse with a mild bleach/water solution. Fill from faucet at your house and.......VOILA gallons and gallons of drinking water. Also if you are staying, Fill your trash cans and bathtubs. You can use this water to flush your toilets.
you can also buy a Brita (or similar) filtered water pitcher. These will make your tap water taste just like store bought bottled water. If going to have to store/use water for drinking more than a couple days you can add a small amount of bleach(unscented) to your bulk containers and essentially sterilize it. You can look up how much bleach to use per gallon of water.

No real reason to waste time waiting in lines for hours to spend boat bucks for something you can get at home in a few minutes for pennies.

We always started keeping containers at the beginning of summer in anticipation of a storm knocking out power/water.
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Old 09-12-2018, 02:39 PM   #139
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Originally Posted by twiisted71 View Post
After watching some video of people waiting in stores for hours for bottled water deliveries I thought I'd add my 2...and that's probably what its worth.

for 99.9% of our country water from the tap in your house is perfectly drinkable. Get some "clean" containers (5 gallon buckets, used milk/water jugs, whatever. scrub them clean and rinse with a mild bleach/water solution. Fill from faucet at your house and.......VOILA gallons and gallons of drinking water. Also if you are staying, Fill your trash cans and bathtubs. You can use this water to flush your toilets.
you can also buy a Brita (or similar) filtered water pitcher. These will make your tap water taste just like store bought bottled water. If going to have to store/use water for drinking more than a couple days you can add a small amount of bleach(unscented) to your bulk containers and essentially sterilize it. You can look up how much bleach to use per gallon of water.

No real reason to waste time waiting in lines for hours to spend boat bucks for something you can get at home in a few minutes for pennies.

We always started keeping containers at the beginning of summer in anticipation of a storm knocking out power/water.
A significant percentage of the time, local water is not potable after a hurricane or flooding. Also, used containers, water bottles or milk jugs, have a greatly increased risk of bacteria developing. Bottled water is not going to cost you boat bucks. To me, it's worth the expenditure.
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Old 09-12-2018, 03:24 PM   #140
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A co-worker in FLL shot me an email with two good hurricane tips:
  1. Buy a Brita water pitcher and filter rain water with it. In our case, we have a 27,000 pool, but that not withstanding, there is a constant source of water provided by the storm.
  2. get some Sterno cans. While they can't cook steak, they will heat up ravioli or cans of green beans.
We followed both.

So the storm turned a little. Yesterday was VERY VERY scary. We went BACK to our marina to double and triple check her. We added more lines and taped down everything (including the windshield wipers). We left thinking we would never see our boat in one piece again. Moreover, the couple in the next slip with the 50' Hatteras triple cabin had not shown up to hurricane tie AT ALL. There is no finger pier between us and them. We knew that if that beast had broken loose, it would beat poor little Skinny Dippin' to death!


Anyway, when we drove away we knew we had done as much as we could. The marina staff and the will of the storm we would have to trust. Once we arrived home, we heard that the county the marina is in issued a mandatory evacuation! Well, so much for that. With nobody to tend the lines when the water went up, every boat would yank the cleats off the docks and nothing would survive. Period. We were heartbroken.

Today, it looks like it may be turning away from us. The marina staff has told us that they WILL be staying and, for now at least, we feel slightly better about the chances she will survive. Still, I feel bad that our good fortune may be someone's bad. We'll see what happens next. It's turned more than once... it will probably turn again.
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