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Old 09-13-2018, 08:16 PM   #201
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Those utility linemen are studs. Their productivity has to be seen to be appreciated. The power companies have robust and (more amazingly) workable mutual aid agreements. Hats off to them.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:31 PM   #202
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the blue dot is the GPS from my phone

still have line power, generator standing by

on high ground.
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Old 09-13-2018, 08:45 PM   #203
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So it will take even longer I guess....

More cars on cinder blocks in the front yard to float away.....in addition to all those outhouses....
sigh, you are not from around here, are you?
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Old 09-13-2018, 09:29 PM   #204
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I think it’s great that the power companies all send men, trucks and equipment toward the area even before the damn thing hits. Last year Florida took the hit. Now it’s our turn to send help.

We lost power for ten days after last years little hurricane and for ten days after Andrew. I saw trucks from a lot of different states helping out.
1996, hurricane Fran, 9 days without power.....the linemen that turned us back on were from Texas!! Love our lineman for sure!

(Hope they are near New Bern this week!)
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Old 09-13-2018, 10:16 PM   #205
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1996, hurricane Fran, 9 days without power.....the linemen that turned us back on were from Texas!! Love our lineman for sure!

(Hope they are near New Bern this week!)
Well, listening to the mayor of New Bern right now and having seen video earlier, a lot of cause for concern. New Bern power is 100% out due to flooding. More surge expected. At this point the outages are not from downed trees and lines.
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:22 PM   #206
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OK, all you actual sailors and boat owners. Explain this stuff to a wannabe.

What sort of wave/wind conditions are dangerous in port or at sea? When is it best to haul out?

Merchant and naval ships head to sea to avoid storms. (The idea is that they do not want to be bashed against the shore.) Do yachts, or megayachts do that?

We had fair warning this storm was coming (although we thought it would hit north of Duck, not south). Would a wise skipper try to dodge the storm or would he take the warning time to haul out and head inland?
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Old 09-13-2018, 11:48 PM   #207
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breezy
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:29 AM   #208
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Limbs?

Isnt that area pretty famous for tall, thick pines with a propensity to blow over due to small root balls and sandy soil?

My sister in Wilmington had one come down on her townhouse during one of the last, lesser canes. Its the only thing really worrying her this go around too.
We have all sorts of both hardwoods and softwoods on our property. We get a lot of limbs down from the deciduous trees as a result of normal thunderstorms. And the pines around here are tall and thin, many as part of tree farms which is a big business. Yes the ground is very sandy and already very saturated from a very wet summer.

Our property is above the theoretical surge mark (I posted links to the surge maps earlier) and we do not have diurnal tides here, only wind tides which can swing about 3 ft normally.

As for us personally, I have been in Los Angeles since Tuesday on business, and will be out in California for at least another week, and original itinerary doesn't have me coming back until 9/30. Ann went up to Virginia on Tuesday to stay with one of her best friends. We don't play games with these storms.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:31 AM   #209
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OK, all you actual sailors and boat owners. Explain this stuff to a wannabe.

What sort of wave/wind conditions are dangerous in port or at sea? When is it best to haul out?

Merchant and naval ships head to sea to avoid storms. (The idea is that they do not want to be bashed against the shore.) Do yachts, or megayachts do that?

We had fair warning this storm was coming (although we thought it would hit north of Duck, not south). Would a wise skipper try to dodge the storm or would he take the warning time to haul out and head inland?
I always had my Hatteras pulled for any named storm in the neighborhood. Glad I did. The ships do not head into the storm, they leave early and steam away from it. It's all a matter of timing.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:19 AM   #210
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I think the problem with running away from a storm is two-fold. Familiarity and the squirrel connundrum. Presumably you're really familiar with your home port, know what its like in most conditions, have spent time scoping it out etc, and hopefully made plans and arrangements. If you try to outrun the storm you could very well find yourself in an unfamiliar area and in over your head without a lot of options.

The second problem is which way do you run ? 3 or 4 days out there is still a fairly wide cone of uncertainty.....every hour you wait for better intel on the storm path, the closer the storm is. If a storm is 2 days away, you could get 300 miles away, but a storm can be 3-400 miles wide....a slight shift in the track of the storm, and you're dealing with very bad weather on the move, wishing you were back at home.

Normally I would think a haul out would be the safest. ( Logistically and financially complicated though ) Around here most of our marinas are about 10 feet above sea level. I can't imagine a 20 foot surge. As the water level rises crowded storage yards would have boats bouncing up and down on their jack stands and holing the hulls.
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Old 09-14-2018, 01:46 AM   #211
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Good luck everyone
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Old 09-14-2018, 02:58 AM   #212
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Yep, good luck to all of you who may be caught in the path of that storm.
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Old 09-14-2018, 05:24 AM   #213
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I think the problem with running away from a storm is two-fold. Familiarity and the squirrel connundrum. Presumably you're really familiar with your home port, know what its like in most conditions, have spent time scoping it out etc, and hopefully made plans and arrangements. If you try to outrun the storm you could very well find yourself in an unfamiliar area and in over your head without a lot of options.

The second problem is which way do you run ? 3 or 4 days out there is still a fairly wide cone of uncertainty.....every hour you wait for better intel on the storm path, the closer the storm is. If a storm is 2 days away, you could get 300 miles away, but a storm can be 3-400 miles wide....a slight shift in the track of the storm, and you're dealing with very bad weather on the move, wishing you were back at home.

Normally I would think a haul out would be the safest. ( Logistically and financially complicated though ) Around here most of our marinas are about 10 feet above sea level. I can't imagine a 20 foot surge. As the water level rises crowded storage yards would have boats bouncing up and down on their jack stands and holing the hulls.
Yes but just in the last decade that cone of uncertainty has shrunk greatly.

Most storms, even 50 miles in the right direction can be a huge difference. 100 niles and often you can drop 2 levels of hurricane force winds. You often dont have to get hundreds of miles away.

Staying put and hauling in a yard not well protected or knowledgeable might pretty well guarantee damage. Moving and leaving the boat at a well protected yard a 100 miles from the eye is at least bettering your chances in my observation.
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Old 09-14-2018, 06:09 AM   #214
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Over the last 30 years we’ve faced a dozen or more mandatory evacuation orders at our home in southern Louisiana. I’ve evacuated 4 times (Ivan, Katrina, Rita, & Gustav) and always on our boat(s). My policy is to put 100 miles if I’m on the left (less dangerous side) and 150+ if on the dangerous side. We use the ICW and already know most “hurricane hole” options on either side. And we are always at home on our boat — lived on it for 6 months after Katrina. Our thoughts and prayers are with those facing the challenges of Florence.
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Old 09-14-2018, 06:24 AM   #215
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Paul in Saudi View Post
OK, all you actual sailors and boat owners. Explain this stuff to a wannabe.

What sort of wave/wind conditions are dangerous in port or at sea? When is it best to haul out?

Would a wise skipper try to dodge the storm or would he take the warning time to haul out and head inland?

Lots of "it depends."

It's often said to be best to haul out, be blocked on high ground (higher than storm surge), be firmly secured to the ground...

But that's not always possible.

Another sometimes-useful option is to be at floating docks with TALL pilings -- tall enough so the docks will survive the highest storm surge and ideally with some leeway to spare -- and tied securely with at least double lines.

But that's not always possible.

Anchored in a decent hurricane hole could work... sometimes... assuming really good holding ground and really good ground tackle...

But that's not always achievable...

Running before the storm could work for some, depending on range, speed, etc.

But that's not always safe...

And so forth.

It depends.

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Old 09-14-2018, 07:32 AM   #216
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Yes but just in the last decade that cone of uncertainty has shrunk greatly.

Most storms, even 50 miles in the right direction can be a huge difference. 100 niles and often you can drop 2 levels of hurricane force winds. You often dont have to get hundreds of miles away.

Staying put and hauling in a yard not well protected or knowledgeable might pretty well guarantee damage. Moving and leaving the boat at a well protected yard a 100 miles from the eye is at least bettering your chances in my observation.

Well, just to add to the debate, it appears the USCG moved some or most of their fleet Jax fleet down the St Johns to their favorite hurricane hole which I assume is the Buckman Lock south of Palatka. They started to return north yesterday. Apparently, they weren't taking any chances the track might change to hit north Florida. YMMV.
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Old 09-14-2018, 07:39 AM   #217
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Well, just to add to the debate, it appears the USCG moved some or most of their fleet Jax fleet down the St Johns to their favorite hurricane hole which I assume is the Buckman Lock south of Palatka. They started to return north yesterday. Apparently, they weren't taking any chances the track might change to hit north Florida. YMMV.
And yet they added 2 helos to Savannah a couple days ago for rapid response. Guess with the Army leaving Hunter Airfield there was plenty of hangar space...if you trust it.
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Old 09-14-2018, 08:37 AM   #218
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Speaking of deadly storms, spare a thought for those in the northern parts of Philippines tonight. A super typhoon(Category 5) 900kl across is due to hit the country tomorrow morning.

Last time one of these hit the the northern islands thousands died.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:43 PM   #219
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Yes but just in the last decade that cone of uncertainty has shrunk greatly.

Most storms, even 50 miles in the right direction can be a huge difference. 100 niles and often you can drop 2 levels of hurricane force winds. You often dont have to get hundreds of miles away.

Staying put and hauling in a yard not well protected or knowledgeable might pretty well guarantee damage. Moving and leaving the boat at a well protected yard a 100 miles from the eye is at least bettering your chances in my observation.
Assuming you have the time and money to handle the logistics of moving a sufficient distance. The government can, if only because we already fund their considerable supply chain. But for average boaters it's not terribly realistic to move a hundred miles away. Especially not if your home is also in the expected path of the weather.
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Old 09-14-2018, 12:58 PM   #220
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Assuming you have the time and money to handle the logistics of moving a sufficient distance. The government can, if only because we already fund their considerable supply chain. But for average boaters it's not terribly realistic to move a hundred miles away. Especially not if your home is also in the expected path of the weather.
Then you should be expected to pay significantly higher insurance premiums.

Plus the government doesnt have unlimited deep pockets like everyone thinks....lots of hand wringing goes into evacuations..... sure funds flow if disaster support makes you look good....but many evacuations of USCG resources are often unecessary.....a lot I was involved with.
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