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Old 11-05-2017, 10:38 AM   #41
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I have a question while discussing electric and recycling. Does anyone know what happens to a Tesla Powerwall when the time comes it's no longer in service? We all know that time is inevitable, but it's sure not discussed much.
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Old 11-05-2017, 11:25 AM   #42
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I fear solar/electric boats, except for a few very specialized uses, are another joke on the public like ethanol fuel and electric cars.
You may have noticed that Tesla's sales fell to zero in China after the government subsidy was ended, in GA they fell from 1400 to 100 after just the state subsidy was ended. I am tired of helping, with my tax dollars, rich people buy toys (like a Tesla).
Where do these electric car people think the power to charge their cars is coming from if not coal/heavy oil fired power plants for the most part. How much diesel fuel do they think it takes to grow/process a gallon of ethanol for that matter.
The marketplace will take a decade to recover from these and many other government distortions after they are ended.
I agree,
And we’re talking about infrastructure that is mind stretching in it’s magnitude. The oil and gas industry is so huge you can’t even think of throwing it under the bus except over a long period of time. The changes this revolution will bring forth will turn our economy up-side-down unless done slowly. Think of the millions of people that will need new jobs and retraining that will also take time. Everybody wants new things now, but most things won’t come to pass unless given years or in this case decades of time.

Also most people are buying e-things mostly to be vogue but that will only fly for a few people as they are more expensive. The majority of people will only buy a product if it better meets their needs than other products. When a product competes on cost v/s performance it will sell to real people .. the masses. And the e-products here are not cost effective and it’s anybody’s guess when that will happen. And any guess will need to consider how much more efficient gas powered cars or diesel powered pleasure boats will or may become. If oil powered vehicles can deliver w 25% of their present consumption how far into the future will that take them? My last Jetta had 170hp. It was very fast. When average cars have 75hp (like a 1950 Chevrolet) we can assume then that efficiency is very important. Now it is not.
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:13 PM   #43
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much
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There are several lead acid recycling plants in the US where every solid and liquid part of the battery is recaptured. Are you saying spent batteries from MA go to Mexico?
From what I have read, many spent lead/acid batteries in the U.S. go to Mexico to be recycled.
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:20 PM   #44
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I have a question while discussing electric and recycling. Does anyone know what happens to a Tesla Powerwall when the time comes it's no longer in service? We all know that time is inevitable, but it's sure not discussed much.
That is the 64 dollar question. At this time Lithium battery secondary products can be fairly easily recycled but the Li compound itself requires a fair bit of hydrometallurgical design and expertise that is yet to economically resolve itself. Pb, Ni and Cd battery recycling is well known and utilized with costs to accomplish defined.

Li producers are currently in the middle of this "who pays for the technology to recycle" question. Some very smart people are working on this, I know a few. But, Li recycling costs and to who they accrue is yet to be known and agreed. The auto guys are a bit scared to pass on total recycling fees at this time. Tesla's 10K may well carry a "note" referring to this unknown contingency.

Good question and it will get expensive for the directly involved entities.
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:25 PM   #45
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That is the 64 dollar question. At this time Lithium battery secondary products can be fairly easily recycled but the Li compound itself requires a fair bit of hydrometallurgical design and expertise that is yet to economically resolve itself. Pb, Ni and Cd battery recycling is well known and utilized with costs to accomplish defined.

Li producers are currently in the middle of this "who pays for the technology to recycle" question. Some very smart people are working on this, I know a few. But, Li recycling costs and to who they accrue is yet to be known and agreed. The auto guys are a bit scared to pass on total recycling fees at this time. Tesla's 10K may well carry a "note" referring to this unknown contingency.

Good question and it will get expensive for the directly involved entities.
Why don't they do like the government does with our atomic plant waste, just let it pile up and pass the problem on to our children and grandchildren. It works for that industry...
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Old 11-05-2017, 12:31 PM   #46
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much

From what I have read, many spent lead/acid batteries in the U.S. go to Mexico to be recycled.
Can't say they don't go to Mexico, but there are very large Pb battery recycling plants in AL, CA, NY, MO and MN. Over 90 % of lead from batteries is recycled, much easier than mining it.

Many state and federal laws cover spent battery disposal and transportation with batteries termed Universal Waste under 40CFR part 273. Then OSHA comes into play as does the EPA etc for plant operations.
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Old 11-05-2017, 01:47 PM   #47
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Brooksie and Eric:

Well, I disagree with your contention that electric cars are a hoax foisted on the American public like gasohol (which I do agree is a hoax). Electric boats are another thing entirely but I don't think anyone is seriously pushing them.

I made the case for an electric car for my driving profile a dozen posts up. The cost was essentially a wash and it saved about 40% in CO2 emissions- using gasoline vs natural gas as the ultimate fuel source.

Yes it does depend on a $7.5K federal subsidy to make it work but I can justify that as covering start up costs that will go away (each manufacturer loses the federal credit after they produce 200,000 cars). If we really had a carbon tax that taxed the true societal costs of fossil fuels, the cost would be a lot closer today without the subsidy.

And at $30-35K for the Tesla Model 3, the Chevy Bolt and the Nissan Leaf before incentives, I don't think that these cars are only for the rich.

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Old 11-05-2017, 02:15 PM   #48
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........ But to drive from Salt Lake City to Las Vegas is about 6 hours by gas powered car or close to 3 days by an EV......
What percentage of car trips are 6 hour trips ??

I would bet that 90% of car trips are 1 hour or less. These seem like a perfect use for electric cars.

As for the bitching about wasted tax dollars on subsidies for EV's...

Do you realize that from 2008 to 2015 Exxon Mobile, the second most profitable country in the world !!, got $12.9 billion in tax subsidies* !?!?!!?




*https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/09/b...ax-report.html
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Old 11-05-2017, 03:02 PM   #49
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Here's a link to an article from a couple years ago in Yachting that I thought was interesting.

Article Summary: The combination of advancements in battery technology and the switch to AC motors from DC motors; efficiency will drive demand for electric boats. We are approaching the point where comparable performance can be obtained from the same weight of batteries/electic motor and fuel/diesel engine. Once that point is reached, e-boat manufacture will take off. Also, maintenance on an electric motor is said to be much less. ( this is my summary of the article, not what I think...so don't jump all over me if you disagree with it )

Interesting fact: Both NASA and Boeing are projecting that we'll have battery powered commuter jets in 10-20 years, and 737 size planes in 30 years

https://www.yachtingmagazine.com/future-electric-boats
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Old 11-05-2017, 04:23 PM   #50
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What percentage of car trips are 6 hour trips ??

I would bet that 90% of car trips are 1 hour or less. These seem like a perfect use for electric cars.

As for the bitching about wasted tax dollars on subsidies for EV's...

Do you realize that from 2008 to 2015 Exxon Mobile, the second most profitable country in the world !!, got $12.9 billion in tax subsidies* !?!?!!?
l
I agree that an "errand car" is a good idea but it is still being recharged with coal/oil generated electricity and incurring energy losses in the charging & storage process as well.
Tax code incentives (loopholes) like the ones for buying electric cars, exploring for oil, depleting oil reserves, growing corn for ethanol, and hundreds of others, are what need (but won't be) eliminated. The marketplace, not crony capitalism, can tell us what works and doesn't work.
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Old 11-05-2017, 05:27 PM   #51
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Fledgling industries need subsidies to get off the ground. Otherwise, the risk would be too great and no one would be willing to invest in them. At one point, oil exploration was considered high risk, and deemed necessary for the country. Exxon is making enough that it can assume its own risk at this point. Oil subsidies are the biggest example of "crony capitalism" that I can think of. For electric/hybrid cars the approach was to encourage the demand, and let the industry fill it. Certainly the Auto companies can afford the R&D for the technology, but people needed encouragement to buy the cars. People wouldn't buy them because they were an unknown. They would stay an unknown until someone bought them. That's the perfect place for a demand boosting subsidy. It makes sense for tax dollars to be used because I get the benefit if you buy an electric car. Demand for foreign oil and polution go down, and the industry advances. Those are good for everyone.

As for the efficiency of the vehicles...that will improve as the market develops for them, hence the subsidy, and at the very least, it can move the pollution away from the cities and reduce smog and health issues for the majority of the population. (Think of the second hand smoke argument)

Remember that this isn't entirely about efficiency....there is the pollution component as well.
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Old 11-05-2017, 06:48 PM   #52
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Benthic2, sir are a "true believer"
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Old 11-05-2017, 06:50 PM   #53
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I wonder about the pollution (let's exclude CO2 from this conversation for now) from modern, very well emission controlled automobile engines vs utility power plants that supply energy to plug in electric cars.

I am quite sure that coal fired power plants put out more pollution (per BTU burned) than modern automobiles. Acid rain is still a problem downwind of coal fired power plants as well as particulates. Natural gas fired power plants are very clean and probably rival low emissions from autos. There are very few (maybe none) liquid fueled utility power plants.

Current automobiles which burn highly refined, low lead gasoline have two stage catalytic converters that remove almost all hydrocarbons and NOx.

When I was a kid, I walked to school in the 50s and can recall being gassed by horribly polluting cars driving by me. Today I walk about the same distance to the coffee shop and am passed by the same number of cars, but nary a whiff.

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Old 11-05-2017, 07:23 PM   #54
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David but when the diesel PU’s go by I punch the re-circ button if I see they are on heavy throttle .. meaning black smoke and overfuled. So many PU drivers love to put the foot down .. especially younger drivers w loud pipes.

Are the power plants measured during normal operation? Auto’s are probably measured at full throttle but they usually operate at about 1/8 throttle emitting far far less. Don’t know but suspect.
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Old 11-05-2017, 09:17 PM   #55
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Eric:

Have you been gassed by a CR diesel PU? They are pretty clean. Older ones, yes they can belch smoke when pushed.

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Old 11-06-2017, 06:23 AM   #56
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"Fledgling industries need subsidies to get off the ground. Otherwise, the risk would be too great and no one would be willing to invest in them."

Amazon, Home Depot , and most other companies got started with out taxpayer cash.

For a true giant leap forward only investors can accept the high risk, and act.

That's why Capitalism has rich folks, that can afford to be wrong 9 out of 10 times.

A gov buroRat would simply go to a meeting for a decade or two , to be sure no blame could be traced back to a failure.

"Demand for foreign oil and polution go down, and the industry advances. Those are good for everyone."

The only thing stopping the USA from being energy independant is the US Government.

Most electric cars use a TOD, time of day' charger to get lowest electric rates , as in the middle of the night the coal plants are still operating cheaply.

"Remember that this isn't entirely about efficiency....there is the pollution component as well."


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Old 11-06-2017, 06:35 AM   #57
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What percentage of car trips are 6 hour trips ?? l]

Some of us don't live in Boston.
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Old 11-06-2017, 07:33 AM   #58
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A few tidbits:

Almost zero petroleum is used to generate electricity for the grid in the CONUS. I think the mix is about 35% natgas, 30% coal, 20% nuke. The remaining is hydro, wind and solar. Wind and solar are growing, too.

I too think the ecar market will grow. In fact I would consider one for local trips. Around here folks are using golf carts for local travel. Something in between a full function car and a golf cart would sell if for cheap money. Then a proper ICE road car for long trips.

The boat e-drive thing is nonsense unless very short trips. Many times more energy needed to push a boat vs similar size car, depending of course on speed. Power density is just not there in a reasonably sized batt bank to get any range or run time.
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Old 11-06-2017, 08:24 AM   #59
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It seems to me that with the current state and cost of battery technology that "solar/electric" boats serve two purposes. 1) They give the buyers the feeling that they are being "green". and 2) Such boats are viable for short runs before they go back on the charger.

In the case of #1 how green the boat is depends on several factors. The obvious one is the source of charging power. The solar array could recharge the batteries if the boat is used infrequently and is located in a generally sunny location. Also if the boat is used in the pacific northwest where most electric power comes from hydroelectricity (how green that is depends on who you talk to) the boat might be considered relatively more "green". The second factor that is generally overlooked is the energy and environmental cost of producing the electrical components in the boat. Solar panels do not grow on trees and it takes significant energy to reduce silica to silicon and then refine the silicon. Similarly, although I don't know the details, I suspect that lithium mining isn't very "green" and that processing lithium to make batteries is very energy intensive and produces significant wastes. Finally, as discussed above, there is the question of dealing with waste batteries.

Number "2" depends on the use of the boat. A large solar array on the boat cannot with current technology produce enough energy to drive the boat at what most boaters would consider reasonable speeds. Thus the solar array serves more to extend the range of the battery bank a bit. How much depends on the relative sizes of the solar array and the battery bank and, of course, the weather. For those who generally only cruise 10-20 miles a day and tie up at a marina where the batteries can be recharged, the electric only boat may make sense. Certainly it is possible to extend the range of the boat at a given speed by increasing the size of the battery bank, but as we all know lithium batteries are expensive. Thus a significant range increase may come with a cost of many tens of thousands of dollars. What an electric boat does not at present work for is running to an anchorage, anchoring out with no charging capability and then running back if the distance to the anchorage is more than about 40% of the boat's range. Don't even think about running your A/C or electric stove when at anchor.

So my conclusion is that electric boats are viable for those who only run short distances and have charging available at their stopping places. For many of us that might work. In my case my favorite anchorage is about a 15 mile run. I could conceivably cram enough lithium into my boat to allow a return trip to that anchorage along with normal house loads. But going much farther would be a problem, particularly given the scarcity of marinas in this area (down east coast of Maine).
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Old 11-06-2017, 08:31 AM   #60
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Remember that this isn't entirely about efficiency....there is the pollution component as well.
Respectfully, i think the point some are making is that these buyers of Volts & Teslas are under the false impression they have driven home a "zero-emission" vehicle.
if they believe this, they have forgotten about from where the power comes to keep recharging those massive batteries. Plus as someone else mentioned, what will happen to our landfills or recycle facilities as the first wave of hybrid or electric cars are retired and someone has to figure out what to do with all those batteries?
From the perspective of an electrical engineer, I find it odd that many people see these new products as a new form of energy, but they are not. they are simply very fancy and expensive energy storage devices... they are just a way to store energy that was extracted from the nearest electric plant. In most cases, that electric plant is not zero emission.
The power and energy efficiency gained from oil is still hard to beat and we've also built extremely clean ways to burn it.
I agree conservation and pollution reduction are excellent goals, but modern cars are so clean already. I'm just not yet convinced "batteries" are the next best energy solution.
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