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Old 09-26-2022, 09:35 AM   #1
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Buy Now???

Am I insane to be considering the purchase of a substantial boat in the economy we are in right now? Especially considering every pundit and bank president alike seems to be indicating a global recession. This past week marks the first time many of the worlds central banks (10 of them including the Fed) all raised interest rates simultaneously to quell inflation. The world bank noted these hikes would have a "disastrous effect on the global economy". Anxiety anyone?

What I do know is that high quality well maintained boats are in very short supply and people seem willing to pay top dollar to get them. Will that mentality persist as the markets get more shaky? I am looking for a very specific boat and when they come up they are typically sold in short order for near asking price. So, the question I have is whether anything changes if the markets suffer as so many suggest (not the cost of money as I am a cash purchaser). Will those higher end boats come down substantially over the next 6 months?

Will I buy now and then cry in my Wheaties (6 months from now) because I should have waited just a little longer??? Does anyone know a boat buyers therapist?
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Old 09-26-2022, 09:52 AM   #2
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If ever there was a question that the only answer is "it depends."

My hunch is the market will improve for buyers within a year or so. More choices, more folks ready to sell at traditional values. Over the last 25 years, the market has been very steady......except for the Covid times. That said, quality examples of boats have sold well even in lukewarm economies.

But if you're looking for a very specific boat and they are in limited supply, you don't have a lot of choice. Even if the market relaxes, no guarantee your heart throb won't have suitors.

Good luck

Peter
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Old 09-26-2022, 09:55 AM   #3
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So the question becomes when do you want to use the boat. Yes probably many boats will come on the market in the next couple of years as the covid PPP loan buyers can't keep up the ongoing costs, and the bonuses aren't big enough anymore. But do you want to wait? Are you young and have time to be patient, or is your boating going to age limit out in a few years? You can lose a lot of fun time waiting, but maybe can get a better boat by waiting.
If you don't need the money for all you're other expenses, what good is it sitting in your pocket?
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:01 AM   #4
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In the end, the only time anyone needs a boat is when the one they are on is sinking and the one next to them isn't. Other than that, it's discretionary.

I like that, first time I've read it.
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:10 AM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mvweebles View Post

But if you're looking for a very specific boat and they are in limited supply, you don't have a lot of choice. Even if the market relaxes, no guarantee your heart throb won't have suitors.

Peter

Agreed


What are you looking for, if I may be so bold.
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:33 AM   #6
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Agreed


What are you looking for, if I may be so bold.
I am actually to afraid to play my cards out of paranoia of someone reading this and says to themselves...I have money and never considered that boat - I should go look at one. Once I purchase I will post a picture!
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:34 AM   #7
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But if you're looking for a very specific boat and they are in limited supply, you don't have a lot of choice. Even if the market relaxes, no guarantee your heart throb won't have suitors.

Good luck

Thanks! Yes I believe you are correct on this!
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:37 AM   #8
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But do you want to wait? Are you young and have time to be patient, or is your boating going to age limit out in a few years? You can lose a lot of fun time waiting, but maybe can get a better boat by waiting.
If you don't need the money for all you're other expenses, what good is it sitting in your pocket?[/QUOTE]

Fair points all. I am 54 and doing everything I can to jump out early...FIRE=Financial Independence Retire Early. I would add: FIREGB = Financial independence Retire Early and go boating.

SO I can wait...but I don't want to. Health is never guaranteed.
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:38 AM   #9
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[QUOTE=mike66;1125768]In the end, the only time anyone needs a boat is when the one they are on is sinking and the one next to them isn't. Other than that, it's discretionary.

Fuuny!
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:41 AM   #10
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Lots of discussion on this topic here and on other forums.

The response that resonates most with me is this: how much is missing a season with to you? We have kids - our oldest just started HS. I don't know how many more seasons we'll get in before they won't tolerate spending the whole summer on a boat with us.

Alternatively, god forbid my or my partner's health might take a turn, or my parents', and I won't feel comfortable being away for weeks on end. This could happen in an instant & put on hold our cruising plans indefinitely.
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Old 09-26-2022, 10:57 AM   #11
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YES, you are insane. No one else dares to tell you.

I can say it cause I am insane too and recognize it in you. I am sitting on my two month new to me boat as I type wondering when the old boat will sell. I may have to sell the Harley, but I am waiting in case not.

BUT, I am happy to be where I am at. Once we made the decision to move to a bigger boat, once we found the type, there was no second thoughts about if I waited.

So if you do not have that feeling, if waiting adds more stress than jumping in when you found the one, then wait.
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Old 09-26-2022, 11:11 AM   #12
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Congrats on the new "toy" Steve!!!
FIRE,
My 2 cents worth (and worth every penny you paid ), is "value" is subjective.
What I mean by that is, it is possible that prices may drop, availability may increase, and you MAY be able to look back and (for those reasons) "wish you had waited". However, it is also possible that due to your happiness with your specific new boat, and the good times and adventures you had experienced in the meanwhile, you are very happy you "took the plunge"????
So the best answer is "it really depends" on a number of "personal" factors besides the "economic ones".
Personally, I fear that we (most of the world) are headed for a deep recession (maybe even depression), and under those circumstances "luxury" items are often the first to "go" when people need food and shelter. I hope I am wrong!!
That being said, living on a boat might be a relatively inexpensive way to survive??
If money is the largest factor in your decision, then if it were me, I would wait. If not and a great example of the boat you want becomes available, then maybe making a move now is right?
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Old 09-26-2022, 11:25 AM   #13
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FIRE View Post
I am actually to afraid to play my cards out of paranoia of someone reading this and says to themselves...I have money and never considered that boat - I should go look at one. Once I purchase I will post a picture!
That is a fair point. I would suggest making yourself a list of the attributes that model has and then trying to look for another model or custom boat that may have the same features, if nothing else, looking at boats is fun and traveling around to look at boats will bring you to interesting areas. You could list the features/attributes you are looking for the forum and you might get some suggestions your have never heard of.

I think a lot of shoppers get tunnel vision on a limited number of brands and models. Best of luck.
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Old 09-26-2022, 11:30 AM   #14
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We bought our current boat 21 months ago, after 19 years boatless. We Wish we had done it 10 years ago.

Stating the obvious, In a niche market, your opportunity to buy only comes up when boat is available for purchase . . . . so if you wait, you reduce the number of boats you get to chose from. If you know what you want (which you say you do) and if you have the financial resources currently available to purchase, AND you have the time right now to maintain/use the boat without crimping your current job/lifestyle, why are you waiting?
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Old 09-26-2022, 11:50 AM   #15
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I think a lot of shoppers get tunnel vision on a limited number of brands and models. Best of luck.[/QUOTE]

I don't think we have tunnel vision....My wife and I have been " window shopping" for years and I travel extensively in business which has allowed me to visit so many boat shows at the tail end of a trip. Funny that I have (invented) many trips to FL during boat show season! We have also attended a couple of TrawlerFests and will go this weekend to Baltimore. You are absolutely right in that boat shopping is fun and allows you to see new places.
That said we have created/maintained the list of wants and needs similar to buying your first house (must have a and want to haves). That said after years of pointed research including reading so many TF posts on the subject we feel confident and anxious to begin.
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Old 09-26-2022, 12:05 PM   #16
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Personally, I fear that we (most of the world) are headed for a deep recession (maybe even depression), and under those circumstances "luxury" items are often the first to "go" when people need food and shelter. I hope I am wrong!!

If money is the largest factor in your decision, then if it were me, I would wait. If not and a great example of the boat you want becomes available, then maybe making a move now is right?
I'd say wait about 4-6 months when people are crying that the world is coming to an end. You also may want to shop in the UK or Europe. The exchange rates are insane right now.
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Old 09-26-2022, 01:27 PM   #17
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After the Newport Boat show a few years ago my wife has decided she'd really like a Carver C40 command bridge, about 2015 to 2017. The price hasn't dropped one penny since we first noticed them -- still around half a million, asking price, for what that's worth. On the other hand, in our 450 slip marina, we've noticed more and more boats for sale and more boats were stored through the summer and never launched. Taking a money-saving break maybe? But either way, completely mixed signals. After about 103 discussions like this on the forum, I have no idea where it's going to go. But I do know for sure, life is short. I got our boys' school pictures on Friday. I'm always shocked at how fast they've grown, even though I see them every day. My oldest son's voice is cracking (14). I hear him call downstairs in his lower register now and it's very unsettling, and I get this vague sense of panic that they'll be gone to college the next time I blink. I don't need a Nordhavn (although it sure would be nice, if I win the lottery), but either way, get out there. We'll all be dead in five minutes.
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Old 09-26-2022, 01:36 PM   #18
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After the Newport Boat show a few years ago my wife has decided she'd really like a Carver C40 command bridge, about 2015 to 2017. The price hasn't dropped one penny since we first noticed them -- still around half a million, asking price, for what that's worth. On the other hand, in our 450 slip marina, we've noticed more and more boats for sale and more boats were stored through the summer and never launched. Taking a money-saving break maybe? But either way, completely mixed signals. After about 103 discussions like this on the forum, I have no idea where it's going to go. But I do know for sure, life is short. I got our boys' school pictures on Friday. I'm always shocked at how fast they've grown, even though I see them every day. My oldest son's voice is cracking (14). I hear him call downstairs in his lower register now and it's very unsettling, and I get this vague sense of panic that they'll be gone to college the next time I blink. I don't need a Nordhavn (although it sure would be nice, if I win the lottery), but either way, get out there. We'll all be dead in five minutes.
I have read many accounts of those who waited for one reason or another only to have an unforseen life event dash their hopes and dreams.
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Old 09-26-2022, 02:13 PM   #19
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A commodities trader shared with me:
“He who thinks he is smarter than Market God, Market God punishes”. As we all know, timing markets is hard. Same may hold for the boat market.

Buy on value and it will, likely hold its value in the long run. Very well maintained boats seem to do well in most markets.

Free advice is worth…
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Old 09-26-2022, 11:12 PM   #20
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We found our retirement boat about 3-4 years earlier than anticipated. Decided to go for it and use the time and resources on the retirement boat vs. the existing “weekender”.

I am glad we did as it has taken some time to go through all of the systems, get educated, and collect spares.

We have had 5 great summer cruises, so if life dictated a sale tomorrow, it has been a good run.

The value of the boat has appreciated.

We continue to spend on our continuous refit, but it is enjoyable and we intend to go far beginning next year.

In summary, we have no regrets with the “buy now” or early purchase.
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