Apparently Irma was a nothing burger

[menzies]

Originally Posted by what_barnacles

LOL ok that was a good one.

Why does the UK know more about our situation than we do?

Over dozen looters arrested and another shot in Florida | Daily Mail Online

Probably less crime than a normal night - just a spotlight on it now.

[BandB]

Originally Posted by menzies

Probably less crime than a normal night - just a spotlight on it now.

There has been a lot of police presence in evacuation zones. Miami Beach had a large group.

[CDreamer]

Looters are like purse snatchers. The lowest of the low. Sint Maarten is really dealing with the lowlifes...and when everyone is down. A sad side of humanity.

[Wxx3]

Originally Posted by menzies

A conversation my wife and I have had numerous time during Matthew and Irma.

It is called crying wolf.

Compare the NHC Wind Prob charts posted every 12 hours to what the TV stations are saying and you will see the vast differences. So where are the stations getting their info. Using their own and ignoring NHC?

Bingo

[BandB]

The charts were consistent with NHC except for the time NHC had it going up off the east shore.

One thing that most people don't know is the definition of sustained wind speed. It refers to the highest one-minute average wind (at an elevation of 10 meters with an unobstructed exposure) associated with that weather system at a particular point in time. Yet when everyone uses sustained vs. gusts in the course of the storm they're not thinking in those terms.

Some gusts would make that. This storm did sustain high winds in the Caribbean for longer periods of time, but the long time over Cuba took a lot out of it. Then when it ran on shore. Tampa did actually record gusts over 140 mph and we supposedly hit 110 although I have no idea if that's an official number. Our friend who was measuring hit only a top of 101.

I'd hate being a meteorologist because you're damned if you do and damned if you don't on a hurricane. They do intentionally warn of the worst possibilities. I really have no argument with that.

Now, where I had the problem with government officials, with television, with everyone was on their approach to evacuation. Officially, you evacuate only for storm surge (or flooding in event of a flood). Yet, over and over they would all start warning people they felt should evacuate because of the winds. Over history there have been various changes in terms of how to rate a hurricane, warnings, evacuation. I don't have the answers.

I do think perhaps more were evacuated than necessary, but ultimately we must be doing something right if we have very few deaths. People who felt they were prepared to deal with it didn't have to evaluate. We didn't. Mandatory evacuation in Florida is just a term as there is no law requiring it. But most are not that well prepared. There were some homeless in evacuation zones taken in by law enforcement under other laws simply to get them to safety.

I'm sure there were mistakes made but for now we've still got storms. I'm sure all the actions and decisions will be looked at and evaluated at the appropriate time.

[menzies]

I disagree.

I have been tracking the NHC wind probs for our areas for the past few days and capturing the probs on a Word doc. The local First Coast New forecasts of winds was WAY over the probs.

An example from around 5 this afternoon.

The NHC showed the following for the next 24 hours (each % column is 12 hours):

JACKSONVILLE 34kt 50% 31%(81)
JACKSONVILLE 50kt 2% 7%( 9)

The Local station put up a wind forecast of between 72 and 75 MPH winds across the region during the same period.

Where did they get that info? Why the disconnect?

[BandB]

Originally Posted by menzies

The Local station put up a wind forecast of between 72 and 75 MPH winds across the region during the same period.

Where did they get that info? Why the disconnect?

Now, I can't possibly tell you why or what a local Jacksonville station did. I always use multiple sources just for the fact someone may be an outlier. The NHC was for a while on direction.

I think all of them missed two things on this hurricane. First was the time over Cuba and the slow speed at that point. Euro always had it slower than GFS but both had it reaching the US sooner than it did. The second was they didn't have the turn over land and continuing over land. They had it either just off the coast or straddling the coast. Now, 5 out of 6 models have nearly identical paths for the next couple of days. NAM has it further inland than all the others.

[menzies]

Originally Posted by BandB

Now, I can't possibly tell you why or what a local Jacksonville station did. I always use multiple sources just for the fact someone may be an outlier. The NHC was for a while on direction.

I think all of them missed two things on this hurricane. First was the time over Cuba and the slow speed at that point. Euro always had it slower than GFS but both had it reaching the US sooner than it did. The second was they didn't have the turn over land and continuing over land. They had it either just off the coast or straddling the coast. Now, 5 out of 6 models have nearly identical paths for the next couple of days. NAM has it further inland than all the others.

That doesn't explain what the news outlets are using for their wind speed forecasts. If they are not using NHC/NOAA what are they using? And why is whatever they are using significantly different.

[BandB]

Originally Posted by menzies

That doesn't explain what the news outlets are using for their wind speed forecasts. If they are not using NHC/NOAA what are they using? And why is whatever they are using significantly different.

They're using other models, combinations, each does something different. But I haven't seen anything on the national forecasts significantly different. I can't speak as to your local station. Now, if you want something to think about, then think about the fact that all the Atlanta school systems are closed tomorrow.

Here's an article that might interest you.

Accuracy of three major weather forecasting services | Dr. Randal S. Olson

That article discusses local forecasts and doesn't speak highly of some of them. It also discusses weather.com's wet bias. It doesn't discuss Accuweather or Wunderground or all the others.

[Wxx3]

Originally Posted by BandB

They do intentionally warn of the worst possibilities. I really have no argument with that.
.

That's actually not true.

In fact, IF it was the case, they would be crying wolf all the time and no one would believe them.

[Wxx3]

Originally Posted by BandB

They're using other models, combinations, each does something different. But I haven't seen anything on the national forecasts significantly different. I can't speak as to your local station. Now, if you want something to think about, then think about the fact that all the Atlanta school systems are closed tomorrow.

Here's an article that might interest you.

Accuracy of three major weather forecasting services | Dr. Randal S. Olson

That article discusses local forecasts and doesn't speak highly of some of them. It also discusses weather.com's wet bias. It doesn't discuss Accuweather or Wunderground or all the others.

Dr. Olson should stick to his biometrics data.
The article is both incorrect and misleading.

The graph is nonsensical as described and depicted.

The only part that's correct is that the NWS does most of the heavy lifting for meteorologists worldwide.

In the marinas in Spain, Portugal and France, they post the NWS' Atlantic Ocean charts, forecast and analysis.

[FF]

My guess is after the "perfect storm" in the NE , all spokes persons guess high to keep the liars for hire at bay.

You didn't warn me , I'm taking you to court.

At least we can shoot the looters,

[firstbase]

Originally Posted by kthoennes

My dad is in Stuart Florida. They never even lost electricity, although it blinked a couple times. They're going to bed now that it's tapering off. That's the problem with end of the world predictions, eventually people won't believe the media or the authorities - and then when the world really is going to end, their credibility will be blown. Now maybe the media will have to go back to imminent nuclear anihilation from Pyongyang.

Your dad was lucky. That's all. It's not so nice in many areas close to him.

[angus99]

Ah, yes, looting . . . a troll's best friend . . . which may or may not be more prevalent than an average night in a big city. Personally, I'd rather focus on the heroism of the first responders, electrical workers and others dealing with a major disaster. 5.7 million people without electricity may be a nothing burger to some people--particularly while surfing the news from their armchair.

[kev_rm]

Barnacles are you planning on posting something about race riots next?

[what_barnacles]

Only if all of the MSM cuts off of them while they are ongoing and present a deadly threat to lots of people.

[psneeld]

When in Sandy ( eye went right over boat)....we had no inbound info.

No TV, no radio....not even VHF was broadcasting weather or advisories, no internet....just cel phone.

A friend and son would call with info every hour or so. Pretty unnerving, but not like it would have changed much for the actual storm.

Where the info was more important was when it was safe to return to the marina and what was left.

The media is almost nauseating in some regards,......starting to see the same in many TF posts about Irma.

[sunchaser]

So, in hindsight were the mass evacuations necessary? Second question - will the FL and outer Island insurers change their business models as populations increase in these high risk weather areas?

BTW, why are Floridians permitted to build in flood plains and get insurance to do so? Follow the money maybe?

[john61ct]

It would be unAmerican to forgo economic activity just to protect the citizens from their ignorance.

Anti-social crime is built into the DNA of our political-economic system since long before the country was founded, and we stick to our robber-baron roots much more tenaciously than the rest of the developed world.

[Wxx3]

Originally Posted by sunchaser

So, in hindsight were the mass evacuations necessary? Second question - will the FL and outer Island insurers change their business models as populations increase in these high risk weather areas?

BTW, why are Floridians permitted to build in flood plains and get insurance to do so? Follow the money maybe?

Why should anything change as long as you can build in the flood plain and get U.S. government subsidized insurance.