Anyone prepping along the Florida and Gulf coast??

[jwnall]

Right now, it looks as if the little bugger will probably come up along the West coast of Florida and into the armpit of Florida (the Big Bend). Perhaps not very strong, though, (although that could change), but that counter-clockwise rotation could produce some pretty high tides around Tampa and points north. Definitely one of those "keep tuned, folks" things.

 

[psneeld]

Heck ....with my injectors still out and possible coolant combustion leak ....I am watching all those stinkin' Atlantic lows with a keen eye.

Well ....the eye that's not covered with my head slappin' hand...

 

[markpierce]

Sounds like hell to boat in SE USA. It's a climate to avoid.

 

[BandB]

Sounds like hell to boat in SE USA. It's a climate to avoid.

No, it's not hell. It's perhaps perceived hell by some. We don't stay in a hurricane panic, we only stay aware. So, if we have to evacuate once every 20 years, we'll live with that, although there hasn't been a storm that would cause us to evacuate for much longer than that, where we live. Were we further south, Andrew would have. Hurricanes are talked about far more than they hit. Every part of the country has risks. Look at the floods this past couple of years. Look at the tornadoes through the midwest. It's like saying it is hell to live in the SF Bay area because of all the earthquakes.

 

[psneeld]

yep...hell it is...

 

[cardude01]

Even with the hurricane threats, I still like our warm water and near constant sunshine.

Now the fire ants and mosquitoes I could do without.

 

[FF]

"Sounds like hell to boat in SE USA. It's a climate to avoid."

Really rough , the last Hurricane was 11 years ago,

 

[timjet]

In 6 years of ownership I've had to prep my boat exactly once. I think I was the only one in the marina to do so. I was a bit premature, it never came close. I did have to wait at West End in the Bahamas to cross the Gulf Stream once for a couple of days and we were delayed in Ft. Lauderdale for a couple of days determining which way a depression was headed, but that's about it.

I'm keeping an eye on this one. We live an hour from the boat, so I can get there on a moments notice. Since we are side tied next to a piling that supports the floating dock, I'll move the boat forward away from the piling so if the boat rocks it won't hit it. That and remove the sundeck chairs and all canvas and put additional ropes on, and that should do it. Pilings are about 10 ft high, hope that's enough.

 

[stubones99]

Sounds like hell to boat in SE USA. It's a climate to avoid.

Here in the southeast, we pay the weathermen extra to say that so that it doesn't get more crowded than it already is...

 

[BandB]

Wifey B: I think some of the forecasters need to go back and reread "Chicken Little", also known as "Henny Penny." The sky is falling, the sky is falling. Now, I do understand they want people to take storms seriously and prepare. However, they sure do exaggerate sometimes and my fear is that by dramatizing the smaller threats they lose us and when there's a very severe threat we might not listen. If I lived in LA then 99 would have my full attention as I am scared of even one more drop of rain. But in FL and other coastal areas, it's not an evacuation level storm, never showed that potential. Yes, be on alert and standby.

You can't treat potential tropical storms with 30 mph winds the same as you do CAT III storms headed your way. 91L appears to be headed toward NC. It's a lot like 99. Gaston would have been cause for some concern but it stayed far offshore. It will peak at CAT II.

I'm not saying to ignore a storm like 99, but to recognize what level and type threat it is and that is the threat for a lot of rain especially in areas that can't afford more.

 

[stubones99]

You can say that but...

Here in Melbourne, they forecast a bad storm back in 2011. We ferried the larger aircraft and buttoned everything down for the blow...
Nothing came other than rain and 20+ mph winds.

We ferried the aircraft back and resumed operations...

A month or so followed and a tropical storm was building, heading northeast across Florida. The forecasters had taken the beating on the previous storm and said this storm was minor, so we did minimal prep work, with extra tie downs for aircraft and such, moving what we could into the hangars.

It was 2-3x what they said was headed our way, and we lost $250,000 or so in damage to aircraft. Not much on an airplane but it hurt regardless. Customer was mad because we ferried on one and not the other. Recounts of all forecasters backed us up on the decision to not ferry but we paid with customer credibility.

As good as forecasting has gotten in the recent history, they are still often wrong, leading to chicken little syndrome...

BTW, Dark Skies says it is raining here but I see blue skies overhead

Stu

 

[HopCar]

When did anyone start paying any attention to a storm that never organized enough to get a name? I didn't even know they numbered storms. I've always called this type of weather "rainy". It must have been a very slow news week.

 

[BandB]

When did anyone start paying any attention to a storm that never organized enough to get a name? I didn't even know they numbered storms. I've always called this type of weather "rainy". It must have been a very slow news week.

Wifey B: What he said.....

But now in LA, "rainy" scares me.

 

[psneeld]

Concern versus minimum prep versus fear vesus maximum prep and evacuation...sometimes only hours between. The more severe the weather, usually the more predictable it is. But it still can change rapidly in 48 hours.

My theory is...if you have time to do everything you need to do..wait until the storm is in the 90th percentile predictable...usually 48 hours out or so then just move the boat into a safe direction.

If you don't have that kind of time, do your best when the general tracks are headed your way about 5 days out, follow whatever insurance and marina rules you have to and pray.

As I posted...I am already concerned with Invest 91L. I have till about Tues to make a final decision unless forecasts change.

 

[BandB]

As I posted...I am already concerned with Invest 91L. I have till about Tues to make a final decision unless forecasts change.

91L sort of snuck in. Tuesday morning is shown hitting NC coast, sooner than 99 would hit LA.

 

[psneeld]

Thus weather forecasting is extrodinarily difficult and the NWS and the USCG has been sued so many times for NOT being chicken little.....they have learned to listen to the lawyers as much as the computer models...

 

[tallswede]

Hurricane Ike was only rated a cat 2 but for some reason it was quite large and packed a very big surge. It was about 13' here in Baytown and a whole marina floated off because the pilings weren't high enough. Ya never can tell. I'm travelling next week so I'll do some extra ties on my boat and drop the mast (I'm in a covered non floating slip) Just in case something comes our way.

Kevin

 

[Steve]

Speaking of H. IKE below is a picture the floor inside the front door of my fishing camp in Cocodrie, La. after Ike's visit
The camp is about 6' about sea level. I only got about 4" of water inside but that left a 1/4" of almost grease like silt. Scooped most of it out then hosed out the rest with fresh water. The camp has flooded twice since I bought it in 1987, Ike, and Andrew about 6" then.

 

[Capt. Jon]

Concern versus minimum prep versus fear vesus maximum prep and evacuation...sometimes only hours between. The more severe the weather, usually the more predictable it is. But it still can change rapidly in 48 hours.

My theory is...if you have time to do everything you need to do..wait until the storm is in the 90th percentile predictable...usually 48 hours out or so then just move the boat into a safe direction.

If you don't have that kind of time, do your best when the general tracks are headed your way about 5 days out, follow whatever insurance and marina rules you have to and pray.

As I posted...I am already concerned with Invest 91L. I have till about Tues to make a final decision unless forecasts change.

I just goes to show you that the old Mariners 123 rule is still one of the best guidelines. Then pray.

 

[timjet]

My theory is...if you have time to do everything you need to do..wait until the storm is in the 90th percentile predictable...usually 48 hours out or so then just move the boat into a safe direction.

By that time most hurricane holes will be taken. My theory if I'm cruising is to find a marina a couple of days out and stay there. If you wait too long most of the protected marinas won't have slips and you're stuck. So find a place early and absorb the cost.

 

[Lobstah]

I agree!!

Sounds like hell to boat in SE USA. It's a climate to avoid.

It truly is, and should be avoided at ALL COSTS.
No one should come here. It's terrible!

:lol:

 

[psneeld]

By that time most hurricane holes will be taken. My theory if I'm cruising is to find a marina a couple of days out and stay there. If you wait too long most of the protected marinas won't have slips and you're stuck. So find a place early and absorb the cost.

Good reminder.....I could see that depending where you are.

But my rarionale is that in a lifetime of boating being threatened by hurricanes, I have only pulled twice and moved once. Usually by waiting, the intensity or track changed enough to stand down with little or no preparation needed. Of course I was only on the Gulf Coast for 5 years so not living in "ground zero" helped.

The same applied in the USCG, we were always starting to pack and move things when the storm was so far off. It was very disruptive to operations...finally the policy came down to a more wait and scramble approach. Again, just by waiting till things firmed up saved many a man day from needless preparation.

The biggest dilemma for hurricane prep can be for people who also have jobs related to public assistance with evacuations. That overlap has to be carefully managed within those agencies so workers don't get screwed...been there...helped get rid of that mentality where I could.

 

[Lobstah]

I would agree with the criticism of the "talking heads" on the morning/evening "news" shows...
But this storm has been a bit of a different beast, tripping up some very veteran AND accurate forecasters.

And, as the latest runs indicate, it's likely not over yet. There's plenty of hurricane food available in the Gulf right now, so if I DID own a boat on FL's Gulf Coast, I'd keep a close eye on it.

 

[Star0210]

When did anyone start paying any attention to a storm that never organized enough to get a name? I didn't even know they numbered storms. I've always called this type of weather "rainy". It must have been a very slow news week.

Invest's are always numbered 91-99.

 

[RT Firefly]

99?...

 

[Steve]

Nash Roberts, where are you?

Old time New Orleans weatherman who "always" got it right!

 

[ulysses]

I think he is with Hap Galladi now.

 

[BandB]

By that time most hurricane holes will be taken. My theory if I'm cruising is to find a marina a couple of days out and stay there. If you wait too long most of the protected marinas won't have slips and you're stuck. So find a place early and absorb the cost.

Yes, but if you run for cover with every potential tropical storm then they will completely dominate your life. The majority don't hit land and of those that do, the vast majority won't hit where you are. I would not wait until within 48 hours to take steps, but I would certainly wait longer than people were talking about 99. My time is 3 to 4 days and at the very least until it's actually a hurricane. Otherwise my boat is always prepared for a storm the size of 99, unless I'm out on it and then I'm very aware and prepared to move.

The various paths of 99 now show landfall anywhere from Tampa to New Orleans with one straggler for Galveston area. However, none of those show it developing into even a tropical storm. It's bringing heavy rain. So, if I lived in an area that would be impacted by heavy rain, I'd stay on alert, but that's a land concern, not a boat one.

Meanwhile 91 has turned into Tropical Depression 8 and it is likely to hit the NC coast as a Tropical Storm on Tuesday so if I was in that area I would be reacting as I would to a Tropical Storm, whatever that is to an individual.

Does mean 99 can no longer turn into Hermine as H/8 is now taken.

It's all a very personal decision of when and how to react. I just try to make my reaction consistent with what I know at the time and there's been nothing in the history of 99 that would have sent me into hurricane mode. If I lived in Louisiana right now, I would be very concerned of it or anything with the potential of additional rain. I don't fault anyone who is concerned and takes what I would consider premature action.

I guess part of my thought is centered around those who say they can't keep a boat in Florida because of hurricanes or wonder how anyone boats or lives in Miami or Fort Lauderdale. Well, we do very happily but we do so by only reacting to hurricanes headed our way and since 2005, no hurricane has made landfall anywhere in the state of Florida. We do remain aware of every tropical development but we don't go into hurricane mode on them.

One other thing is that we always assume storms may come, whether tropical or otherwise and keep our boats prepared for storms.

 

[psneeld]

Good excuse for cruising to a new destination though....

 

[BandB]

99?...

Wifey B: Smart aleck.