Fort Pierce Crossing Weather

[cardude01]

Was that video in the GS? That looks pretty damn uncomfortable to me. I also wonder if the stabilizers were on. If so, that would really suck without stabilizers!

What was the wind speed and direction?

 

[drillguy]

Last weekend when we were looking at this I don't remember a north vector being in that wind forecast, but obviously by the looks of those waves and the direction your burgie is blowing, mother nature had different ideas. You have a very capable vessel and arrived well. My boat would have needed to stay behind that day. Enjoy your stay.

 

[menzies]

Stabilizers were on, though I do have a suspicion on the port one that I will be emailing my yard about.

I think the biggest issue was that the wind was 25-26 from the NE gusting 30. The stream runs due north so we had a stiff wind angled across the flow. The swell was confused with the wave top and really messed things up.

I was looking forward to getting off the stream and onto the bank, but the bank, being shallower, stacked the waves up with very little time in between. Our heading to Grand meant the waves were right on the nose. We went for about thirty minutes and realized we were going to be pounded again for another five hours and then enter the very tight and shallow anchorage at Grand in pitch black darkness.

So i made the call to bear off 14 degrees south, take the waves on our quarter, and head for Great Sale. We got there around 10:30. The missus told me that was the first decision I got right that day!

I was using four sources for the weather, and the window seemed to be there. Just goes to show. You had better damn well be prepared.

 

[menzies]

Last weekend when we were looking at this I don't remember a north vector being in that wind forecast, but obviously by the looks of those waves and the direction your burgie is blowing, mother nature had different ideas. You have a very capable vessel and arrived well. My boat would have needed to stay behind that day. Enjoy your stay.

We knew that there was a front coming in, but all consensus pointed to a late afternoon arrival, around 5pm, and we should have been on the bank between 2 and 3.

It came a lot earlier!

And yes, I cannot fault Sonas at all. I do have my eye on the port stabilizer, but, apart from the fridge blowing open half way across and a smashed bottle of red wine on the floor, she handled herself admirably. But she may not get the chance to do that again anytime soon!

 

[OldDan1943]

Hmm, what would Columbus do?

 

[menzies]

Hmm, what would Columbus do?

Had someone sponge up the red wine and put it in a glass for him?

 

[OldDan1943]

Had someone sponge up the red wine and put it in a glass for him?

There will be a brief class on how to lock the fridge while underway.

 

[Wxx3]

Sounds like you did well and none the worse for wear.

The real lesson here is one can not take weather forecasts verbatim. By definition they are an average of conditions over space and time.
Forecast accuracy that we become accustomed to over land, does not exist off-shore because the observational data is sparse or non-existent.

Also, I have found that even as a professional meteorologist, too much data is not helpful, as it will distract from what works. It's best to watch the same model and forecasts on a consistent manner, so that when yo really need it, you have a sense of how it behaves and the range of extremes you can expect.

In four weeks, I'm planning on setting off northwest along the coast of Mexico. Every day i have internet, which is almost all the time, I look at the Windy depiction a few times day. I've been doing this since August.
It's useful in that it confirms the pilot chart data which is the winds blow from the NW 75% of the time. and the periods of lulls happen for tow to three day periods, so every few weeks.

Richard

 

[cardude01]

Richard, which forecast model do you use on the Windy app?

 

[Gordon J]

Just curious

D

A snippet.

Looks like you were doing a bit of rolling. Do you have stabilizers and were they on/working that day?

 

[Gordon J]

Never mind, read further

D

Looks like you were doing a bit of rolling. Do you have stabilizers and were they on/working that day?[/QUOTE

Never mind..saw further posts

 

[diver dave]

Well. The lesson learned here is to down the wine before the crossing[emoji848]. Not the crew of course...

 

[Nightsky]

A snippet.

Your boat was designed for just such conditions. I am also wondering if the stabilizers were on.

 

[BandB]

Richard, which forecast model do you use on the Windy app?

We use Windy and always look at both models. None is right 100% of the time but generally they're not both totally wrong. I prefer ECMWF. Richard may prefer Wavewatch, GFS, even NAM but it's better, in my opinion, to look at multiple models.

For instance, had a friend leaving for Nassau early today. 68' boat. ECMWF had 4-5' at 6 to 7 seconds, National Weather Service had 5' at 12 seconds. Both had 13-14 mph winds from the south but as you got into the Bahamas, ECMWF had 25 knot gusts which GFS didn't have.

Now, the actual he encountered, 4' at 7 seconds wtih 5' in the gulf stream. 2-3' at 11 seconds once clear of the gulf stream. Gusts did reach 23 knots but max was 15 knots by the time he reached the Bahamas and were harmless as it was in the Bahamas where seas were less than 3'.

Meanwhile we scheduled our trip for tomorrow. We see nothing more than 2' in our plans.

 

[BandB]

Your boat was designed for just such conditions. I am also wondering if the stabilizers were on.

It did not appear to me there were on and properly functioning.

 

[Benthic2]

.....Stabilizers were on......

Post #33

 

[BandB]

Post #33

While in #33 he said they were on, in #34 he expressed concern that the port one was working properly, so seems there is a legitimate question of whether they were working right. They were on at the switch. The way the boat rolled was not consistent with what I would have expected from a stabilized boat.

 

[Wxx3]

Richard, which forecast model do you use on the Windy app?

I just keep it on the ECMWF 9km. If I was on the east coast, I'd use the NAM.
I usually don't switch back and forth. There is absolutely no way to determine which is best for any given situation, at least if you are not looking at it 8 hours a day, 7 days a week.
Also, the variation is not significant. It may look significant, but it really isn't.

My advice, look at all three over a couple of days, decide which one seems best for your location, use that and don't look back.

One last thing about off shore forecast data (not the marine discussion, but the actual GRIB data). I can recall few times the winds were lighter than forecast.
It always seems the winds are stronger. If forecast says 10, it turns out to be 12 to 15.

But then, as a friend pointed out, maybe I'm just more sensitive to the overages and the unders:lol:

 

[menzies]

There will be a brief class on how to lock the fridge while underway.

Fridge was locked. But this design unfortunately allowed the fridge side to gradually unlock. Adding a pad behind the tab for tightening.

 

[Sugardog]

A snippet.

Perfect weather, flat is boring.

 

[OldDan1943]

Fridge was locked. But this design unfortunately allowed the fridge side to gradually unlock. Adding a pad behind the tab for tightening.

Good idea. You don't want to spill the "milk"

 

[fryedaze]

We have taken video of rough cruising conditions . The videos look tame compared to how things actually feel on the boat. You really got rocked I bet.

 

[Group9]

Oddy enough it was on our first crossing back in June 2002. We met with our buddy boat, Happy II, in West Palm and set off. The forecast was for 5kt winds from the south and calm seas. And it was just that as we set off at first light. Perfect.

We got about half way into the stream and we were hit with what I guess you could call an short storm, except it lasted for about an hour and a half. We were in a 40' Silverton. I have no idea what the wave heights were but they built from the north and we buried the bow many times, with plenty of spray on the flybridge. We had lightning striking all around, to the extent that our instruments reset twice.

We had five on board, three violently ill, myself and son not. The buddy boat and I discussed turning back, but it was just as far back as forward to get out of the stream and both our boats were reacting as they should to the helm, so we decided to keep going. the storm abated and we ended up approaching West End on a calm sunny day again!

We had a great two weeks in the Abacos and then crossed back on a sheet of glass!

It's amazing how many first GS crossings are the worst. Mine was, too. I just didn't believe it could be that bad. We crossed in 1987 in November, in 20 knots of north wind in a 38 foot sailboat. It was just as bad as you would think. I threw up half the trip , and I never get sick!

But, that's how you learn. I'm a weather wuss now when it cones to the GS.