Hurricane Matthew?

[Lobstah]

Looks like we can all start speculating where Mathew's going to go...
Half of the models have it going a bit South of Cuba and then taking an abrupt 90deg turn due North.
Most amateurs say they've never seen a model run look like that.

Looks like a week to 10 days away from U.S. right now. Hurricane hunters are flying it now so should have some more details soon.

Scroll down to see two graphics of different models:

https://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=3446

Ugly thing is that usually GFS turns out to be less accurate. Hope that's not the case this time.

 

[Sealife]

Its good to be in Panama! We may get some good surfing swell at of it.

 

[Lobstah]

Well...no longer a TD/TS...
Mathew just went to Major status, ahead of NHC forecasts.
This is turning into a very dangerous and very large storm...

 

[Seevee]

Now a Cat 3, with sustained winds at 115 mph. Very dangerous.

Hope all in its way can find some safe harbor.

 

[Lobstah]

Very strange storm, making forecasts very difficult.
Track really depends on when/where it makes the "turn"...
Track forecasts have changed dramatically over past 4 days...NHC now says Fl could be in play...

 

[Seevee]

Very strange storm, making forecasts very difficult.
Track really depends on when/where it makes the "turn"...
Track forecasts have changed dramatically over past 4 days...NHC now says Fl could be in play...

Lobstah,

Seems like FL was always a possibility, being so far out. But don't see where they've change their mind about the most probably path, and FL is more at risk. Did I miss that?

 

[Lobstah]

Perhaps...
Not sure which models/sites you use, but for instance, GFS was indicating a track further East, and EMCEF was West of GFS. Those tracks have now moved further West, as has the projected turning point, increasing odds for Florida to be in play.
On Dr. Master's 11am update, he mentioned this change in model runs, and stated that Florida may be in play, and I believe that his first mention of this in the past few days.

Mark Sudduth on Hurricanetrack.com said yesterday morning that there was no way this storm would enter the GOM, then on his 11pm youtube update, changed his opinion: https://youtu.be/3TvLzMNgV1Y


So I guess IMHO, the chances have increased, and more so over the past 12-24hrs.

A model that not many talk about presents a pretty scary run for FL residents here:
GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool


I think there's a fairly high pucker-factor associated with that model.

With any luck, Mathew will shrug, and head ENE out into the Northern Atlantic. But it's looking like that may require a LOT of luck.

 

[Roamer Blue]

Link doesn't work for me?

RB

A model that not many talk about presents a pretty scary run for FL residents here:
GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool

 

[Lobstah]

Link doesn't work for me?

RB

Hmmm...that's odd. Try this?


GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool

or this?

GEOS-5 WxMap Visualization Tool

 

[Lobstah]

Sorry folks.
Try this link. Once there, click on the map, then click "animate".

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/

interesting frames are up around Frame 54 and forward...

 

[jwnall]

Sorry folks.
Try this link. Once there, click on the map, then click "animate".

https://gmao.gsfc.nasa.gov/forecasts/

interesting frames are up around Frame 54 and forward...

Yeah, that one works just fine. Not that I like the scenario, though, living in Florida . . .

 

[Lobstah]

I guess one of the problems with a storm this size is there's no where to run if you're on the East coast...

 

[Roamer Blue]

Thank you for the new link!

RB

 

[Lobstah]

Yeah, that one works just fine. Not that I like the scenario, though, living in Florida . . .

Was up in St. Marks a month ago...stayed at the Fish Camp on my way to Tallahassee. Great place.

Room for a 48' trawler up there?

 

[Lobstah]

Thank you for the new link!

RB

Btw...if you go back to that link make sure to look at the "Forecast initial time" and hit the drop down to make sure you're looking at the latest run. New runs are posted roughly every 12hrs.

That is a very scary model to watch tho, and it is VERY DIFFERENT than what other models are calling for...can't stress that enough.

VERY DIFFERENT, VERY DIFFERENT, VERY DIFFERENT...

 

[jwnall]

Was up in St. Marks a month ago...stayed at the Fish Camp on my way to Tallahassee. Great place.

Room for a 48' trawler up there?

Um, I don't really think that any of the slips at Shields Marina (where I am) would easily accommodate a 48-footer. I'm in one of the larger slips, and my 36-footer takes up most of the length. Plenty of beam room, but the slips are just not long enough for a large boat. IMO.

Not that you would not be welcome, of course.

 

[jwnall]

I guess one of the problems with a storm this size is there's no where to run if you're on the East coast...

My worry right now has to do with that track moving further Westward . . .

 

[psneeld]

The good news for Florida it is south of Cuba.....bad news for Cuba.....often the mountains knock a good bit out of it as long as it doesn't slow and reintensify.

Anyone know if Capt. BILL is still in Cuba?

 

[Seevee]

Lobstah,

Thanks to the link, good one, and didn't know Dr. Mathews on Wunderground had a blog, also good.

I've been using the NHC, and Mark's Hurricane Track for info., but the last one I got from him was at 1am.

Looks like us Floridians need to pay attention.

 

[Ski in NC]

Passageweather has it scary close to NC on thurs. No likey.

 

[Keysdisease]

That "mountains of Cuba often knock a good bit out" is logical and conventional wisdom, but as a 60 year native of Florida that's a big maybe. I have seen storms come right over the most mountainous parts of Cuba and not even blink.

If you're on the Mid to Southern East Coast of Florida Stuart is the place to be. Only place you can move North, South or West to get out of the path of a storm.

Proximity to a hurricane is a big deal when it comes to intensity. If you can get 50 or 100 miles away it changes from a major event to nothing more than a rain event.

The good news for Florida it is south of Cuba.....bad news for Cuba.....often the mountains knock a good bit out of it as long as it doesn't slow and reintensify.

Anyone know if Capt. BILL is still in Cuba?

 

[BandB]

One computer model has it heading to sea and missing the SE US. Three have it possibly hitting NC. One has it getting the top half or so of the east coast of FL.

Of the dozen or so ensemble models, the majority have it either heading out to sea or hitting the US anywhere from northern Florida to Maine.

The NHC track forecasts have an error of about 175 miles on day 4 and 230 miles at day 5 so still very much unknown.

The current forecasts have it's maximum winds at any point only at 115 mph, so Category 2 to Category 3.

Right now the projected target is Jamaica Sunday night into Monday morning as a Category 3.

 

[Lobstah]

One computer model has it heading to sea and missing the SE US. Three have it possibly hitting NC. One has it getting the top half or so of the east coast of FL.

Of the dozen or so ensemble models, the majority have it either heading out to sea or hitting the US anywhere from northern Florida to Maine.

The NHC track forecasts have an error of about 175 miles on day 4 and 230 miles at day 5 so still very much unknown.

The current forecasts have it's maximum winds at any point only at 115 mph, so Category 2 to Category 3.

Right now the projected target is Jamaica Sunday night into Monday morning as a Category 3.

Well, the latest dropsondes reported Cat 4 winds, and it's not over the "oven" yet...
This storm has broken a lot of rules, so I wouldn't bank on it conforming to anything from the past. Way to big and way to powerful to take casually if you're in the Eastern U.S.

"140mph at the surface from a dropsonde, and that is not a typo. 162mph at 925mb."

 

[Lobstah]

Btw...just looked at the latest GFS run on Levi's page (tropicaltidbits.com great place to play with models!).
Latest GFS run has this skirting outerbanks, heading NNE, and then make a major turn back NNW, and making landfall on the coast of Maine.

Unreal.

See if this gets you there...

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/anal...slp&runtime=2016093012&fh=384&xpos=0&ypos=200

960mb when it hits?
Lotta folks in SouthWest Harbor are hoping THAT'S wrong...could be a pile of Hinkley's up there.

 

[Lobstah]

One of the 'cane hunters, Miss Piggy, is making another run.
This is really shaping up to be a historic storm.

Jamaica was bracing for a Cat1, maybe Cat 2...nothing like this.

 

[BandB]

Well, the latest dropsondes reported Cat 4 winds, and it's not over the "oven" yet...
This storm has broken a lot of rules, so I wouldn't bank on it conforming to anything from the past. Way to big and way to powerful to take casually if you're in the Eastern U.S.

"140mph at the surface from a dropsonde, and that is not a typo. 162mph at 925mb."

I don't know how the updates are done or based on what, but the latest I see on the sites I have examined is 120 mph and CAT 3. Now, I'm not betting on or against anything happening. I'm pretty confident in it's direction through early Monday morning and that's the limit of my confidence.

 

[psneeld]

I am still trying to figure out why this storm is so different?

 

[Heron]

Passageweather has it scary close to NC on thurs. No likey.

Yeah...watching closely...

 

[roguewave]

 

[High Wire]

Not good for someone.