Fuel Crisis boat trend

With the price of fuel going up and no sign of it ever going back down, what do you think the new boat trend will be? During the late 70's early 80's we saw the CHB/Taiwan Trawler movement. Reasonable sized boats with economical power. Since then we've seen*steady movement towards larger and*faster. Witness the venerable Grand Banks twin 350 horse "so we can plane" phenomenon.

Also note the Bayliner "drag your butt in the water & make a wake" foundation movement. Will we see the return of balanced boats*and actually see planing again?

My guess is that Yanmar and the other small high speed diesel engines are going to be the Lehmans of the 70's. While they will not have the longevity of the Lehman, they will deliver the economy that the public will demand. I think after this cruising season we will start to see the change. Watch the boat shows next year and see if the smaller engines are featured instead of brute*power.

Some have postulated that a return to long narrow boats may occur for better economy. I don't think our population is going to stand for that. I think most of us want* r o o m y* interiors that the narrow boats can't deliver. Also I think most would be able to crunch the numbers and figure out that for the same interior square footage they'd have to pay for 10 more feet of dock space each month.

What say you?

Ken Buck

Also note that the ONLY time Hatteras built full displacement boats was during the last fuel crunch.

Sloboat, I didn't read you whole post cuz I am in a hurry. But in case you didn't know, Grand Banks has already made the switch to a true planing hull about 3 years ago. Their Aleutian series has always been a true modified V planing hull designed by Tom Fexas....who is known for his planing hull designs. ANd their Heritage series has made the switch. EastBays have always been planing.

Another thing to be considered here is the economic landscape is a little different now. The people who have money will continue to have money and fuel most likely will never be an issue to them. IOW, the rich are getting richer and the poor are getting poorer. I seem to be on the back side of that power curve. With that said, any NEW boat in the 40+ trawler class will still only be in reach of a "rich" person....naybe a household that mkaes $500k+. More on this later as I have to go.....

I was out this last weekend and noticed many boats that are capable of planing at 15-20 knots moving along at displacement speeds. So you'll probably see many of the high HP boats advertising how economical they can be if they're pulled back to a reasonable speed.

True, they're not nearly as economical as they would be if they were designed to run at that speed - but the difference between 20 GPH and 5 GPH is a lot bigger than the difference between 5 GPH and 2 GPH. And they'll advertise that the speed will still be there "when you really want it."

There'll probably be more emphasis on twin-engine boats that can be satisfactorily operated as a single for slower passages. I've researched it on my boat: the 72C transmission is fine with freewheeling, the PSS shaft seal is OK since the speed is under 12 knots, and the rudders are effective enough that the boat is perfectly maneuverable on one engine. Some enterprising individual might wise to come up with an aftermarket system to allow boats that currently can't run as a single to do so. New boat manufacturers would do well to install systems that can freewheel without damage.

For those of us boating in areas with a lot of tidal currents, another enterprising individual could make a nifty software package to help with choosing routes and transit times based on currents. You could pick current position and destination, and it could tell you how long it will take on a given date based on various departure times.

Finally, FloScan and their competitors will do well - it's a lot more interesting to know how much $4/gallon diesel you're going through than it was to know how much $2/gallon diesel.

It's interesting that Chris mentions FloScan. I have one on this boat, had one on my last boat and would/will put one on my next boat. The ability to instantly see what your fuel usage is has always made sense to me. With my gas boat any ignition/fouling problem was easy to see. Comparing the fuel use of each engine was instant confirmation if something was wrong with one.

Even with a single diesel it's nice to see how things are running. The difference between a cold engine and a warm one can be seen in the GPH at a given RPM. I find that a properly calibrated meter is accurate to within a gallon of fuel used. I generally fill up when I need 150 gallons or so.

The only guess is how much fuel the generator has used. Depending on how heavily it was loaded it will use more or less fuel per hour. I generally run it off one tank and the engine off the other. Eventually I'll have a pretty good average to guess from.

Many folks think the FloScans are a waste of money. I love mine.

Ken

Chris Foster wrote:Chris wrote:


"For those of us boating in areas with a lot of tidal currents, another enterprising individual could make a nifty software package to help with choosing routes and transit times based on currents. You could pick current position and destination, and it could tell you how long it will take on a given date based on various departure times."


I think that's one hell uv a good idea! Think about it....passage schedules based on predicted tide and current flow...I love it!
Walt



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Chris Foster, you are a true capitalist....luv ya man!!!!!

And I don't think there are many people out there that think that Floscans are a waste of money!!!!* I think they are worth their weight in gold and I wouldn't doubt it if you saw Floscan jack their prices up on their products!

-- Edited by Baker at 20:23, 2008-04-15

Ditto Ken..........I love mine too!

Regarding using currents to set a cruising schedule, that is fairly commonly done in this area where the tidal range of 8 to 16+ feet makes for some pretty strong currents through the islands. Most of us use published current atlases and their associated annual current tables.

However the University of Washington has created a Beta-test program that lets you see what the tides, currents, and winds are going to be on a given date (obviously the winds are based on the forecast so are not projected very far out). The website for this program is *http://bis_portal.apl.washington.edu/ *I haven't looked at it for awhile but it seems to still be in place and functioning.

One "problem" in using the currents to set a schedule in the PNW is that as you twist and turn your way through the islands you will likely encounter adverse currents as often as beneficial ones as you travel from Point A to Point B. But depending on where you are going, it is often well worth it to time your cruise to get the benefit of the strongest currents. There have been times when our boat is going its usual 8 knots through the water but is traveling as much as 12 knots over the bottom. And over-the-bottom speeds can be even higher the farther north you go. The bummer is to turn the corner and watch your 12-knot ground speed drop to 4 or 5.....

Most of the time we are interested in the current direction and strength more in how it works with or against the wind than how it affects our ground speed. A strong wind going in the same basic direction as a strong current makes for a way better ride than the same wind going against the current.

But with the fuel prices going up, we'll start paying more attention to the reduction in running time we can get by using the current whenever we can. When the current is running strong in the general direction we want to go, it can cut as much as 30 minutes off the average 3-hour run time from our marina to the island where we have property.

-- Edited by Marin at 20:46, 2008-04-15

sloboat wrote:

Cool gadgets, but what's the future for boats?

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I think it is the same as it is for houses.* Kinda what I was getting at.* Even in the current credit crunch, the sale of upper end homes has increased by almost 20%....while middle income homes have dropped drastically.* The sale of 100ft boats has not suffered one bit and Gulfstream isn't having any problems selling*$40 million jets.* Those same people that can buy a*7 figure*home can buy an expensive boat and not worry about the fuel.* The people that have the money....have the money.* And they will continue to squeeze the ones that don't.* And when there are $100,000 Mastercraft ski boats, I have no friggin' clue.* I totally understand your question.* And I do think there will be some sort of boats that come out of this all and they will come from CHINA!!!!


-- Edited by Baker at 22:43, 2008-04-15

"I don't think our population is going to stand for that. I think most of us want r o o m y interiors that the narrow boats can't deliver. What say you?"


The simplest way to have an efficient boat that is long and EZ to push is to simply think of a longer boat.

The boat price is mostly a weight measure so a 45 ft boat that is 16 ft wide (as a plaining Roomaran) could be replaced with a 60 ft x 12 ft beam that would run 10K on 1/3 the fuel of the 15K cottage , and efficiently run 8K on half of that!

If fuel does stay high , there will be no holding back the long skinney boats, so marinas will change a bit , and simply charge by the Square ft of boat , rather than mere LOA.

The boasts will be far better sea boats , more seakindly , more seaworthy ,far better stability and with range to actually go someplace.

Works for me.

It's funny how this thread should come up now.* I spent 2 days last week at the Lido Boat Show here in SoCal, looking for anything new hitting the market... and saw zilch.* Same players, same boats, both large and small.* One thing I did notice was a rather high percentage of sportfishers on the market.* Perhaps the days are numbered for these fuel guzzlers, possibly turning in favor of slower, more fuel efficient 'fishers.

An opportunity was presented to me to work with a major Asian builder to develop their own line of semi-displacement coastal cruisers in the 60+ ft. range.* These boats will compete directly with the Aleutians, Grand Alaskans, Flemings and Marlows.* It's anticipated these boats will have a top end of around 15 kts., eschewing today's 20+ kt. semis, but will still have all the amenities of the fine vessels mentioned above at a significantly lower price tag.* I'm supposed to meet with the Asian rep next week some time, along with their west coast dealers, and I'll post more here when I learn a little more.

On a more personal note, I find myself being more and more cost conscious when running my boat.* Hell, I've always been that way.* I remember topping off fuel in Santa Cruz on our way to LA from SF, and crying over $3.15/gal diesel in Nov of '05.* But then, I view boating as having 2 costs... acquisition cost (i.e., cost of the asset), and operating costs (i.e., cost of ownership/usage).* Cost of the asset can be amoritzed over time, and though the price of the boat might be high, over time it's not that painful.

On the other hand, operating costs are something you see on a daily basis, you can't always control them, and they aren't going away.* Fuel is just a small part of this... unless, like me, you take on 800+ gallons of fuel every time you fill up

So, I monitor my FloScans religiously, trying to balance economy with the boat's seakeeping characteristics.* I find I don't take it out as much now, but that's not all cost-related.* Work keeps getting in the way.

Eric,

I don't know so much if we'll be competitors.* I'm not looking to get into the boat building biz.

The builder is looking to put at least one larger boat on the west coast for show & tell purposes, and I have significant design input/influence.* The basic hull form is done on an already proven design.* The variables are layouts, power plant, etc.

At the end of the day, I get (hopefully) my last boat at a significant discount, laid out and powered the way I want it, with an agreement to let it be a show boat on the west coast for a year or two.* Rumor has it they'll even take my current boat in trade, so I don't need to go through the PITA of a sale.

It doesn't get much better than that.

Chuck

Sounds like a sweet deal, KMA. I was looking at a similar situation with a boat I was considering -- and might have bought had they actually gone ahead and built it.

"Weight is just as key for these coastal cruisers as l/b ratio."

Not according to any design book.

Until the DL can be down under 100 or so weight is no where as bad as FAT hulls.

IF the boat has enough engine to get on TOP of the water , light is grand.

If the water is being shoved aside , skinny is in.

Take a look a "cruising Cats" , the demand for Bloat , and the price of true light weight construction, and the tons of amenities demanded for a weekend ,result in the heavy multihulls , esp compared to the sail versions.

Most of these Cats are no great shakes at speed , but do gave 15 or 20% better fuel burn.even at their heavy loading.

Or check out Dashew's new "unsailboat".
http://setsail.com/dashew/do_paradigm.html
A serious thing of beauty, inside and out. A little much for my pocketbook though...

I love the look and layout of the newer power cats. The drawback to them, at least here in SoCal, is their beam, which is usually 23+ ft. You have to have an end/side tie dock, and those are really hard to come by.

I thought about contacting Dashews about their 64, but the Admiral took one look at the pics of the 83, and said no way. I sent an inquiry to Seahorse about the Diesel Duck 70, and they've not bothered to respond.

When back in Stuart for TF in January, the Admiral fell in love with the 65' Grand Alaskan (GA) flushdeck. It's layout is similar to our current boat, but they seem to have made much better use of available space. The midship ER has tons of space and headroom, without sacrificing much in the way of space in the sleeping quarters.

A new 65 GA runs about $1.8MM, nicely equipped. If I can get something similar in the $1MM-1.25MM range, and get rid of my current boat in the process, I'm all over it. Finances permitting, of course

Would seem to be more honest , and just build house boats for the roomaran folks , and great traveling vessels for the folks that DO cruise.

FF

FF, am not sure what you mean by "more honest", or how it applies to this discussion. Not everybody is retired yet, and is able to cruise full time. That doesn't mean we shouldn't be permitted to have whatever kind of boat we want.

For not, it's still a free country.

Indeed, there are at least three kinds of legitimate "traveling vessels" depending on one's situation. You have blue water, ocean crossing boats for those with that interest. There are coastal cruisers for those who have plenty of time to get from A to B. And then there are planing or semi-planing cruisers for those who need to get from A to B and back in a weekend or so.

Personally I thought I was in category A or B, but reality stepped in and said, "you, Sir, are in Category C!"

AdamT: Welcome to the world of "reality & honesty." As I stated in past posts, it only took me about 12 years and 8 boats to admit to the actual "reality" of my boating mission. I initially saw myself making long passages, having numerous people on board, at anchor for days at a time, etc. I started with a 48' Offshore Yachtfisher, went up to a 54' Sportfisher,* and as "reality" crept in (wisdom) I migrated down in size and speed and am presently driving a 32' Trawler.

Since I single hand 99% of the time and almost never stray more than 70 miles from my slip, this boat services the actual mission of my boating almost perfectly.

Your class A, B or C states the problem beautifully!

Walt

Reality will rapidly become more real to most boaters and potential boaters as fuel prices continue to climb, moorage fees go up, insurance goes up, etc.

We initially thought in terms of a GB46 when we started thinking about acquiring a boat to cruise our waters but the cost finally ruled that out--- we have other hobbies that cost as much as boating. So we decided to look for an older GB36. Now, ten years later, we would not want a boat one inch longer. We're not going to do open ocean cruising (even if our insurance company permitted it), and the maximum number of additional people we will take on the boat is two, and that very rarely.

We've been in our marina long enough and have met enough people to begin to see trends. We've noticed that a lot of people new to boating--- and who*have the money--- tend to start out in big boats, 45 feet and up in the case of power boats. But it's been interesting to see that a lot of people who have been in boating a long time are leaning more and more toward smaller boats-- 28' to 40'-- than what they have had previously. When we first bought our boat the trend at the GB dealer in our marina was people selling their smaller GBs to buy bigger ones. Now the trend seems to have reversed a bit, with more and more people selling their large boats to get smaller ones.

Not tiny ones--- they still want a boat that will serve their needs---- but smaller ones nevertheless. There still seems to be plenty of people who want that big GB or Selene or whatever. But the ones I've talked to are usually fairly new to boating, and have dreams of powering their floating, all-electric, pushbutton condominum to Hawaii or Mexico or something. Some of them undoubtedly will do this. But it will be interesting to see over the next few years if the downsizing trend continues, accelerates, or goes away.

-- Edited by Marin at 15:22, 2008-04-18

Sloboat---

The prices of the large boats for sale don't seem to represent a glut. A late-90s GB52 in our marina just sold for about $1.3 million. There is an older 60-foot Willard for sale in our marina for $600,000-plus. And there are people willing to pay these prices. So whatever "glut" there may be seems to be getting snapped up by the folks with money. It's interesting how many people who have had larger boats are now looking to get smaller ones, but from what I've seen in our marina so far, they're having no problems selling their large ones.

The folks that want big huge apartment sized boats , are seldom strapped for ca$h.

So with the few hours a year spent away from the dock (remember everyone is watching when you come back) fuel is perhaps .5% of the ownership costs.

They probably spend more on soap to have the thing washed.

Sloboat,
The deals on big boats may be regional- much like housing markets. Punta Gorda and much of Florida has seen a lot of personal net worth dry up due to market correction. These areas may be an area to shop for a better deal. Good news is- you can move that 60 footer most anywhere you like. Unlike a house!!
Steve

Florida Mariner , is the place to look for deals, online or sent to you.

Good Hunting ,

From my perspective as a broker, I do not see much of a "buyers market" out there. I've bought 4 boats for customers in the Ft. Myrs area this year and sellers are holding tight on their prices so far. Most boat owners do not have to sell and most will just keep their boats if they cannot get what they want for them.

I will say, however, that the trawler market is tighter than ever. If you have a good, well maintained boat and wish to sell, you can expect to get top dollar for it. I'm working a deal now on a very nice Albin and the seller took less than 9k less than he paid for it 9 years ago. I'd say he he did pretty good on that.

And I think the rising fuel prices will make trawlers even more desirable.

The glut, if there will be one, will be the same one we always see. First : Poorly maintained off brand boats. Second: Fuel guzzlers with the wrong engines - think 40' Searay with Cat 3116s. As has been oft stated, for a good trawler with economical engine(s) there will always be a market. Fuel costs for this good trawler, who cares! Fun factor counts far more.

The Hats with outsized engines (like a 40 ft with 8V71's) will be hard to keep in fuel.

Only problem is with their plaining hull , there not very efficient off the plane , even if refitted with rational engines.

But there getting pretty cheap.

I think the author of this thread was dreaming of a cheapo 65 ft roomaran dirt cheap.

Since the roomaraNS DONT LEAVE THE DOCK ANYWAY , THE FUEL COST IS NON EXISTANT

FF

I am originally from the UK and used a PC based software package called Sea Pro from EuroNAV.

http://www.euronav.co.uk/Products/Leisure/seaPro/seaProStd.htm

They have an excellent passage planning feature for entering a route, and speed of vessel and it will calculate passage time, expected ground track, course to steer and best departure time. All of which can be displayed graphically. Unfortunately their North American support isn't great so I'm wary of using it over here. I wish I could find a program for Canada/US that was is as good