B737-800 crash in Iran

Ok flyboys, what`s the story? No politics that would upset the Site Team.

I have more questions than answers for now.


The size of the debris field will be an early clue. The debris field will be larger if the plane came apart at altitude. An intact plane that size will leave a smaller debris field in an impact zone. If a weapon is indicated, was it deployed from inside or outside the plane? The crash zone appears to be almost directly downrange from the runway.

What communications were terminated when? Another area for some early clues. I haven't seen reports of a distress call.

It will be difficult to separate the politics for a while. Airlines are avoiding the area for now. We may never know who prepped the plane for flight and who the passengers were.


Reportedly the first fatal accident for the Ukraine airline, founded in the early 1990s.

Apparently there was one passenger missing. Bomb is my bet. Somebody had a hate on for someone. That whole part of the world is batshit.

I spent a decade living in “that” part of the world and our impression when over there was that “this” part of the world was equally batshit [emoji846]

Greetings,
Mr. m. Yup. Everybody's nuts except you and me and I'm not too sure about you...

Well I recently wrapped my hat in tinfoil and that seems that have smoothed things out for me

I’m wondering if Iranian electronic counter measures scrambled the air planes computer.

Greetings,
I think it's way too early to speculate on any causes. The ONLY thing we know for sure is the plane crashed with loss of all aboard. I have a somewhat remote, personal involvement with this tragedy.

It's hard not to speculate. One comment I read mentioned a perfect headline-trifecta: Iran, Ukraine and Boeing.

I've only heard one meaningful clue so far: Communication stopped abruptly. No indication of any glide time (like if it had been simple engine failure) or declaration of emergency by the crew. Smarter people than I can interpret what that might mean, but apparently even the airline has been walking back their initial acceptance of the engine failure theory.

My gut feel is that it was brought down by missile or bomb. But I have nothing to back that up.

If it was brought down by a trigger happy missile operator, we may never know as that would embarrass the Iranians. They will do what ever to keep it hidden.

Don't know if it's telling or not, Iran refused to turn over the black boxes to anyone (Boeing or NTSB). Wondering if they have the ability to analysis its data?

Ted

O C Diver said:

Don't know if it's telling or not, Iran refused to turn over the black boxes to anyone (Boeing or NTSB). Wondering if they have the ability to analysis its data?

Ted

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If it was a missile, they already know what took it down and then no need to read the boxes.

The Iranians are pretty tech savvy, I'm sure they can figure it out.

I do find it interesting that 138 people onboard were bound for Canada.

All of the Persians that I work with are fairly vocal that they are no fan of their government(s) that they left behind.

I'm sure that there will be friends or families of my coworkers affected.

Tredeau won't be pressing to find any results that might make things uncomfortable with him or his UN buddies; or give credit to Trump. As in the immortal words of Nigel Tufnel to "best leave it... unsolved."

I have a feeling there will be a big shrug of indifference all around on this one. Remeniscent of Air India Flight 182, if remeniscent is the right word, because no one actually remembers it.

Appears to be an "own goal."

AlaskaProf said:

Appears to be an "own goal."

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Sheeesh!
If what is emerging now, that a Ukraine plane may have been taken down by an Iranian missile, how is that even remotely close to an own goal?
2 countries.
Iran........2,000 miles.......Ukraine.

Many innocent dead to mourn

Wait for the objective information, the who, what, when, where, why and how, before you start brawling. There's a whole lot about this one we are never going to know.

Greetings,
Mr. B. I fully concur.

Objective information? Yeah. We will all wait for that.

50 years maybe?

Canadian PM is saying their info is an Iranian missile, by mistake, is the cause. That has been echoed elsewhere. Is it true,I don`t know,but it`s horribly sad. Canada lost ?63 citizens.
It`s a sad reminder of MH17,deliberately(perhaps misidentified)brought down by a missile over Ukraine with 100% loss of life.

BruceK said:

Canadian PM is saying their info is an Iranian missile, by mistake, is the cause.

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To me, a "mistake" is worse than a deliberate act.

On the other hand it's easy to say "ooops" after the fact.

OOPS is especially unnerving knowing they are developing nooks. Sorry, had to say it.

The plane just took off from a big city international airport. It was at 8000 ft altitude so likely not more than 10 miles down range. No way it was accidentally mistaken for a lurking spy plane. Plus neither Canada nor Ukraine are the great white devils.

Someone was feeling emotional and had an itchy trigger finger that morning. I bet that 6 months from now there are a couple of military dudes swinging from the end of a backhoe in Tehran.

Dracos will be made be proud!

Greetings,
Mr. m. I defer to your knowledge of the area and the culture. What you suppose may well be the case and it seems possible that among the insane, one happened to have death at his/her fingertips. How does one deal with the ongoing, (and I hesitate to use the word again but there's no better) complete insanity?

IMO, the Iranians saved face by standing up to the “imperialists” when they attacked our troops in Iraq, targeting unimportant structures and giving us forewarning through backchannels. Now it is time to de-escalate which appears to be in progress.

I thinks things could have really gotten out of hand if they had attacked the UAE though. The Emirates and their close allies (Saudis) don’t have the self-control that America has. Plus those two are really afraid of the Persians.

Crazy of the pilot to take off after those missile launches, yet crazy to stick around there to see what hell might come raining down. Though decision to make.

“Hey Abdul, what does this button do?”

Well, it's not like the US didn't accidentally shoot an Iranian airliner down by mistake one time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

Looks like Iran really did shoot down the jetliner. They investigated and found their mistake.


What does it take?

Group9 said:

Well, it's not like the US didn't accidentally shoot an Iranian airliner down by mistake one time.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran_Air_Flight_655

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After the Stark suffered 40 dead and 30 wounded from an Exocet attack the month before, the Vincennes helo was taking fire, and in the midst of Vincennes' running gunfight with Iranian gunboats. Not equivalent circumstances.

Just my humble opinion, but any attack on innocent civilians in a commercial airliner is heinous and cowardly at best! An action like that is hard to justify in any way, shape, or form.
In this case, I am looking forward to the explanation as to how a commercial jet is "accidentally shot down" very near to an active airport????? Back to the first paragraph.
We live in crazy, scary times.