Neah Bay to Astoria Thursday?

Heyya,
We're in Pt Angeles trying to get back to Portland sometime soon. Planning on going to Neah Bay tomorrow (Weds) and leaving Neah Thursday at 10AM for a 803AM slack on the Columbia Bar on Friday morning.

I'm mostly relying on Windy.com and Washington marine forecast. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/marine_report.html


What I m not sure of is the easterlies on Thursday night. I was thinking I could run with one foot on the beach for the last half and it would be merely bumpy. BUT.... has anyone run that coast during easterlies? After getting spanked getting here from Friday Harbor today, I've had about enough of getting trashed by chop on the beam.


So I am doubting myself and asking the forum for a reality check. Crazy? Not much else looks good out on the weather horizons and its getting late in the year......


Wayne & Dana

Can't answer your question but it took me a while to learn that you don't always have to drive in a straight line. Sometimes it's better to zig a little out of your way for a better line with the conditions, then zag back toward your destination.

Wayne
After checking my normal weather resources for the journey you're planning, it looks pretty tough to give strong thumbs up. Currently strong NW winds and 10 to 15 foot seas offshore. Easing a bit Thursday but with potentially strong SE winds opposing NW seas. Then Saturday looks tough again with winds building from NW.

Suggest you check in with Alaska Seaduction. Tom has your route and weather planning well established.

I think you already have your answer, your doubt is obvious. Reconsider, wait for a better outlook.

If you decide to leave your boat in Port Angeles, I will be happy to keep an eye on things frequently and economically (FREE!). If you need anything don’t hesitate to call me, will PM my phone number.

sunchaser said:

Suggest you check in with Alaska Seaduction. Tom has your route and weather planning well established.

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Sent a PM to Tom. Thanks, that was a great idea.

IRENE said:

If you decide to leave your boat in Port Angeles, I will be happy to keep an eye on things frequently and economically (FREE!). If you need anything don’t hesitate to call me, will PM my phone number.

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Woulda left it in Friday Harbor, but we live as well as play on our boat. Thanks for the offer though!

Getting our typical fall weather along the upper west coast. The waves were smashing in nicely along the water break at French Creek on Vancouver Island today. No boats were coming or going except for the Lasqueti ferry.

WayneDana2 said:

Heyya,
We're in Pt Angeles trying to get back to Portland sometime soon. Planning on going to Neah Bay tomorrow (Weds) and leaving Neah Thursday at 10AM for a 803AM slack on the Columbia Bar on Friday morning.

I'm mostly relying on Windy.com and Washington marine forecast. https://a.atmos.washington.edu/data/marine_report.html


What I m not sure of is the easterlies on Thursday night. I was thinking I could run with one foot on the beach for the last half and it would be merely bumpy. BUT.... has anyone run that coast during easterlies? After getting spanked getting here from Friday Harbor today, I've had about enough of getting trashed by chop on the beam.


So I am doubting myself and asking the forum for a reality check. Crazy? Not much else looks good out on the weather horizons and its getting late in the year......


Wayne & Dana

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Approaching your trip.

I like to break conditions down into their components.

First the wind. I see a max of 14 mph on your trip. Does that wind by itself out of the East worry you?

I'd think you'd be looking at what kind of waves the wind is leading to. That means separating the wind waves from the swells. The wind waves I see are no more than a foot anywhere on your trip near shore, 2' at moderate distance off shore. As you near Astoria you would need to stay relatively close to shore and then you could stay in mild waves. What size are you comfortable with?

Most of the waves you'd encounter are from typical swells. You know your comfort there. 1 to 2' at 7 seconds or so from the NW. Gives you combined waves of 2' with long periods most of the trip, then 3' nearer Astoria mostly from the NW.

Now, I have a couple of questions. First, is why the 10:00 AM start? I suspect to time your Astoria arrival. Personally, I like to start early even if it means I must slow down to time my arrival. It just leaves me more daylight to make additional choices.

Second, have you considered running to Westport on Thursday and then rechecking conditions for a Daytime Friday run to Astoria. Rested, visibility, winds calmer than Thursday overnight and another day to check conditions and make decisions. An early morning start from Westport on either Friday or Saturday is then possible?

Or perhaps Plan A is to run to Astoria overnight, but Plan B is to duck into Westport. Can you make the run from Neah Bay to Westport in daylight hours? Again, that's why I suggest a 7:00 AM start to give you a full day to examine and reevaluate and still have Westport as an escape.

Only you know your comfort in various conditions.

The forecast for Sat/Sun. Is so much better. I would not take my chances on Thur/fri. I would play it safe and wait two days. Or plan a stop at Westport knowing the first day is the better half of the run, then reassess.

B&B is right, get a earlier start.. you can always slow down.

Tonight
N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.

Thu
NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds.

Thu Night
NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SW swell 3 ft at 13 seconds.

Fri
E wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. SW swell 3 ft at 15 seconds.

Fri Night
E wind to 10 kt becoming SE 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SW swell 2 ft at 15 seconds







If the models hold it looks like a great ride down on Thursday.. I would do it in my O.A.40 without hesitation. Thursday thru Saturday all look good


HOLLYWOOD

Agreed, looks very doable. I have ran these conditions on the Columbia.

I like though the suggestion to give yourself more time. You could always have issues along the way and building more time in is great! It gives you more options.

I'd not plan an overnight trip close to a very unforgiving shoreline. Last thing you need is catching a crab trap or dead head at 2 am in rough seas. East wind with predominant swell from northwest will make for uncomfortable seas.

This time of the year with a slow boat, I'd break the trip into small segments: Neah Bay to La Push, then to Westport, then to Columbia Bar. Study the La Push and Westport bars if you are not familiar with them. If the weather is better than expected you can always continue on.

WayneDana2 said:

Sent a PM to Tom. Thanks, that was a great idea.

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sunchaser said:

Wayne
After checking my normal weather resources for the journey you're planning, it looks pretty tough to give strong thumbs up. Currently strong NW winds and 10 to 15 foot seas offshore. Easing a bit Thursday but with potentially strong SE winds opposing NW seas. Then Saturday looks tough again with winds building from NW.

Suggest you check in with Alaska Seaduction. Tom has your route and weather planning well established.

Click to expand...

hollywood8118 said:

B&B is right, get a earlier start.. you can always slow down.

Tonight
N wind 5 to 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 5 ft at 9 seconds.

Thu
NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 ft at 11 seconds.

Thu Night
NE wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SW swell 3 ft at 13 seconds.

Fri
E wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. SW swell 3 ft at 15 seconds.

Fri Night
E wind to 10 kt becoming SE 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SW swell 2 ft at 15 seconds

If the models hold it looks like a great ride down on Thursday.. I would do it in my O.A.40 without hesitation. Thursday thru Saturday all look good


HOLLYWOOD

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My apologizes. I didn't see your post until this morning.

Thursday still looks good for me. You will always have a stbd beam or stbd stern seas when travelling south, so it is something you have to live with.

Realize I do the run from Neah Bay to the Columbia River Bar in 12 hours. So I have the ability to do this run in daylight. We travel about 15 miles off shore.

By your post you will be doing an over night. Most importantly is timing the Columbia River Bar. Cross it on a flood. don't worry too much about slack, but if a slack presents it's self by all means take it. We have found crossing a few hours before the switch is good.

Travelling at night presents its own issues, like the ability to see crab traps and trash in the water.

Again, the forecast would be a go for us, buy timing the Columbia Bar the main consideration.

Good luck.

BandB said:

Approaching your trip.

I like to break conditions down into their components.

First the wind. I see a max of 14 mph on your trip. Does that wind by itself out of the East worry you?


Second, have you considered running to Westport on Thursday and then rechecking conditions for a Daytime Friday run to Astoria. Rested, visibility, winds calmer than Thursday overnight and another day to check conditions and make decisions. An early morning start from Westport on either Friday or Saturday is then possible?

Or perhaps Plan A is to run to Astoria overnight, but Plan B is to duck into Westport. Can you make the run from Neah Bay to Westport in daylight hours? Again, that's why I suggest a 7:00 AM start to give you a full day to examine and reevaluate and still have Westport as an escape.

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You hit the nail on the head. Easterly winds (on the beam) don't bother me, its the resulting chop. While not dangerous, it can mingle with existing swells and create very confused seas. I think one foot on the beach after 6pm is the ticket.


It is 14 hours to Westport, which means I enter after dark into the teeth of that wind over the Westport bar. Probably doable, and I can get up to date bar reports from USCG when we get there. That's my bailout for now.

I think you are right about going earlier though. I was timing it, but yeah, slowing down isn't really an issue. I doubt an ebb tide on the bar would be an issue when the swells are running out the bar on the East wind for that matter. Again, I can check on bar conditions when I get closer to decide.



Thanks all for the help!
As an aside, do NOT stay at the Port Angeles Wharf! We had to bail off of it at a little after midnight last night and go to the Boat Haven as the docks at the wharf started jumping up and down 2 feet when the wind shifted. Mr Toad's wild ride.

I would hate to do this trip at night, mostly because of the pots and we like to travel about 5 miles offshore. Our travel speed is 7.5 knots. We like La Push over Grays Harbor mostly cuz of the distance in and out, but also because the Grays Harbor bar can be real lumpy if not timed right. As I recall, it takes us about 14 hrs from La Push to Astoria. Pots are less likely out of La Push than Grays, but there everywhere as you approach the Columbia.
Assuming you have done this trip before, the easterlies shouldn’t be A factor provided the wind speed doesn’t increase over current projections.
Good luck and safe travels.

Okay, leaving Pt Angeles @ 11AM today.
I do wish I could do this all in daylight. Have done over nights 2X on this run in the past and it just is what it is on a 7 knot boat. Usually we go farther out to avoid traps, not a very good option for this trip. Crab season just reopened again too. (Line cutter install on my next haulout? Hmmm....)

I'd second the idea of hitting the Columbia bar on the flood or the tail end of the flood. Any ebb and it will be both rough and very slow. I hit it about 2 hours into the ebb, it was sporty and took a very long time to get up to Astoria.

Almost forgot. We have experienced a slowdown when approaching the Grays Harbor area, the current slowed us down 1-2 knots. Give yourself a cushion, you can slowdown to time the Astoria crossing, tough to make up speed if required. At least for us it is.

Crusty Chief said:

I would hate to do this trip at night, mostly because of the pots and we like to travel about 5 miles offshore. Our travel speed is 7.5 knots. We like La Push over Grays Harbor mostly cuz of the distance in and out, but also because the Grays Harbor bar can be real lumpy if not timed right. As I recall, it takes us about 14 hrs from La Push to Astoria. Pots are less likely out of La Push than Grays, but there everywhere as you approach the Columbia.
Assuming you have done this trip before, the easterlies shouldn’t be A factor provided the wind speed doesn’t increase over current projections.
Good luck and safe travels.

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Looking at it, I'm kinda liking La Push on Thursday and leaving very early on Friday. I will probably do that to keep the travel in darkness to a minimum and to deal with lower winds. Besides, how often does one get to stay in La Push?


I'm well versed at Bar crossings. I have all the good resources and know how to use them.. Healthy respect is Key. I like to arrive at low slack and then ride the flood up river. Makes for a pleasant trip.

My go-to product for the bar: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/n...u=1&tz=LST/LDT&threshold=leEq&thresholdvalue=

Try this one too. Just click on the bar you want to look at:

https://www.weather.gov/pqr/barcams


Please keep us posted....

WayneDana2 said:

It is 14 hours to Westport, which means I enter after dark into the teeth of that wind over the Westport bar. Probably doable, and I can get up to date bar reports from USCG when we get there. That's my bailout for now.

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Then start at 7:00 AM and pick a destination you can make comfortably in 12 hours and run until 7:00 PM. You should have adequate light at both 7:00 AM and 7:00 PM as it's 30 minutes before Sunrise and 30 after Sunset. Perhaps even start a bit earlier. Nautical twilight today there is 6:05 AM to 8:00 PM. We sometimes tend to just look at official Sunrise and Sunset and not take into consideration that we have at least an extra 30-45 minutes of visibility on each end.

La Push sounds good.

There are some strong to gale force SE swinging to NW offshore winds off southern Vancouver Island for Friday and Saturday. A bit of movement from current GRIB data could roil the waters off northern WA coast. Don't dally.

Not sure where you are or your boat speed, but as a past delivery skipper who has made this run dozens of times, given what I know right now (I like passageweather.com, but also have subscriptions to many others such as PS and Buoy weather) I would plan Tatoosh to Stbd early Friday and keep going south though seas will be from SW, but on 3-5 foot. Sunday afternoon should see a shift to northerly seas. Junk from Alaska drops in around Friday, so if goal is warm weather, make all the southing you can early in the week. You should have seas on the stern so not a bad ride.

Easy to say for me, but it's my best thinking given the info I have right now. Good luck and stay safe

Peter

Asea state forecasts. Colorful one is noon wednesday. Junk moves in. Light blue is <1m. Next blue is 1-2m. Dark blue 2-3m. Bottom line: if this were a delivery, would want to get south of Cape Mendocino asap or risk getting pinned up north.

mvweebles said:

Not sure where you are or your boat speed, but as a past delivery skipper who has made this run dozens of times, given what I know right now (I like passageweather.com, but also have subscriptions to many others such as PS and Buoy weather) I would plan Tatoosh to Stbd early Friday and keep going south though seas will be from SW, but on 3-5 foot. Sunday afternoon should see a shift to northerly seas. Junk from Alaska drops in around Friday, so if goal is warm weather, make all the southing you can early in the week. You should have seas on the stern so not a bad ride.

Easy to say for me, but it's my best thinking given the info I have right now. Good luck and stay safe

Peter

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He's just going Neah Bay to Astoria.

Yep. I stand corrected. I just assumed that at this time of year, he was headed south like many people. But the OP question was indeed Neah Bay to Astoria.

Will be a nice ride. I'd worry less about hitting slack tide and more about not hitting ebb current at/near peak due to knock on speed. Ebb starts about 9am (approx slack) through 3pm (next slack). Columbia Bar will not be difficult at any time from at least 2-hrs before and after. It's a big bar - far from difficult compared to other bars along the coast.

Hook down in Neah Bay after a long sleigh ride with the wind but against the current most of the day. The wife was very happy even though it was a long 54 NM at slow speeds.
Will head to La Push tomorrow. Leisure like. Looks like an easy 40NM day.


Will leave La Push at crack of dawn on Friday and see how far we get. Will try to ride all the way to Astoria even if I have to do a bar crossing at night. Should be able to hit 8:30pm slack and ride the flood in. That way only an hour or so in darkness outside where the crab pots are.



Thanks for all the help Gentlemen! Feeling much better about things tonight. Will comment on this thread from Astoria.

I've made the Astoria - Neah Bay trip many times, as a fisherman and in my private boats. You get a better ride in 100 fathoms or more. I usually run 25 miles out. Easterlies will decrease the height of the usual NW swell. It looks like under 10kt east wind. If it blows hard from the SW La Push will be closed.