Dorian is no longer weak. 24 hours ago, forecast to be CAT 1. 12 hours ago was CAT 2. Now forecast to be CAT 3.
Landfall was everywhere from Mid Florida to south of FL to SC to not at all. Now, it's focused on the East Coast of FL, then crossing, then the gulf coast of FL. Landfall is now shown from Miami to Jacksonville. Most have it in the Palm Bay area but ECMWF now has landfall between Boynton and West Palm.
This is part of the pattern of warmer conditions energizing hurricanes gaining strength and of forecasts for the last three to four years initially forecasting weaker hurricanes than they became.
This hurricane quickly has gone from "no worry" to "oh s..." and from no evacuations to some expectation of evacuations prior to the weekend, just don't know where yet.
|