Fort Pierce Crossing Weather

We are leaving home port on Friday heading to Fort Pierce, being prepared to cross over to Grand on Monday the 26th. Right now the WindFinder forecast for Monday calls for winds around 20kts from the east and waves between 5 and 6.5 feet. NOAA doesn't go out that far.

With the services you guys use, what are you seeing?

Hopefully we see a calmer forecast as the time gets closer.

Would you cross with 20kt east winds forecasted? I know you have a big, stabilized boat, but that sounds sketchy.

Windfinder.com says to prepare for a beating. Winds 20 to 25 out of the East, 4' building to 7' late in the day. A forecast 6 days in advance will likely change.

Ted

Marv has Monday right on the edge, Can you consider moving up to Sunday? May have a bit of a wait after that.
Dee Light Website

cardude01 said:

Would you cross with 20kt east winds forecasted? I know you have a big, stabilized boat, but that sounds sketchy.

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Nope, we are going for seven weeks so no rush. Would rather not sit in FP for a week though.

drillguy said:

Marv has Monday right on the edge, Can you consider moving up to Sunday? May have a bit of a wait after that.
Dee Light Website

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Afraid not. We can't leave Jax until first thing Friday morning.

menzies said:

Nope, we are going for seven weeks so no rush. Would rather not sit in FP for a week though.

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Gotcha. I know you’ve crossed lots of times so I was just surprised when you mentioned thinking about crossing in 20 knot east wind. I don’t know sh$t from shinola having only crossed once so just trying to learn.

What’s the roughest conditions you’ve encountered out in the GS?

Checked a bunch of sources. Sit tight for a while my friend. The wind and rough seas are not something I would purposely travel in.

cardude01 said:

What’s the roughest conditions you’ve encountered out in the GS?

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Oddy enough it was on our first crossing back in June 2002. We met with our buddy boat, Happy II, in West Palm and set off. The forecast was for 5kt winds from the south and calm seas. And it was just that as we set off at first light. Perfect.

We got about half way into the stream and we were hit with what I guess you could call an short storm, except it lasted for about an hour and a half. We were in a 40' Silverton. I have no idea what the wave heights were but they built from the north and we buried the bow many times, with plenty of spray on the flybridge. We had lightning striking all around, to the extent that our instruments reset twice.

We had five on board, three violently ill, myself and son not. The buddy boat and I discussed turning back, but it was just as far back as forward to get out of the stream and both our boats were reacting as they should to the helm, so we decided to keep going. the storm abated and we ended up approaching West End on a calm sunny day again!

We had a great two weeks in the Abacos and then crossed back on a sheet of glass!

menzies said:

We are leaving home port on Friday heading to Fort Pierce, being prepared to cross over to Grand on Monday the 26th. Right now the WindFinder forecast for Monday calls for winds around 20kts from the east and waves between 5 and 6.5 feet. NOAA doesn't go out that far.

With the services you guys use, what are you seeing?

Hopefully we see a calmer forecast as the time gets closer.

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I show Ft. Pierce just a bit far north to be making that crossing on that date. The system is approaching from the north and moving in on the area rapidly. What I see right now says that worse conditions could be in the area before you got across. Oddly, if you were crossing from Fort Lauderdale on the same day, you'd have a better forecast.

Unfortunately, I show if you don't get across on Sunday or Monday, you're likely stuck for at least a week. This is a repeat of what we've seen over and over that past couple of months. We crossed to Freeport in very good conditions but returning home in far worse at the moment. About to escape the bad as we're about 45 nm from the coast. But had we not crossed back today, we'd been stuck a week.

Just my 2 cents, but I wouldn't just sit in Ft. Pierce and wait for the weather to cross. Work your way down to Lake Worth while the weather is bad. Cross from LW to memory rock and on to Grand. Use the stream to your advantage, plus it is a little shorter than crossing from FP.

I wouldn't do it that way if you had nice weather, but since you are stuck in Florida for a while, why not?

drillguy said:

Marv has Monday right on the edge, Can you consider moving up to Sunday? May have a bit of a wait after that.
Dee Light Website

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Any idea when he updates that?

WindFinder and PassageWeather are now showing me a window on Monday.

menzies said:

...WindFinder is now showing me a window on Monday.

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Buoyweather shows the same. It looks good for Sunday//Monday but you want be there by Tuesday.

Larry M said:

Buoyweather shows the same. It looks good for Sunday//Monday but you want be there by Tuesday.

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Windy (ECMWF) shows Monday morning fine but 9' by Monday afternoon. Thank goodness Windy was right and NOAA wasn't today for our return. Of course, next week it may be reversed.

BandB said:

Windy (ECMWF) shows Monday morning fine but 9' by Monday afternoon. Thank goodness Windy was right and NOAA wasn't today for our return. Of course, next week it may be reversed.

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What time do they update?

We would be on the bank by around 2pm with a 7am departure.

menzies said:

What time do they update?

We would be on the bank by around 2pm with a 7am departure.

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ECMWF shows you in 5' at 5 seconds by noon. 8' at 6 seconds by 5 pm. Wavewatch (NOAA) shows 4' at 8 seconds still at 6 pm. Both show the same major systems, just arriving at different times.

I’d relax with 4 days till the crossing, you haven’t left Jax yet. The crossing weather isn’t going to affect your departure date from your home port.

Have a good trip south.

Larry M said:

I’d relax with 4 days till the crossing, you haven’t left Jax yet. The crossing weather isn’t going to affect your departure date from your home port.

Have a good trip south.

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Well it won't affect the departure date, but will affect the route - I was planning on running outside to Ponce Inlet on Friday. But probably will not now.

menzies said:

Well it won't affect the departure date, but will affect the route - I was planning on running outside to Ponce Inlet on Friday. But probably will not now.

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Actually looks pretty decent Friday close to shore. You might be able to get further south.

Looks like Monday is opening up for us!

Yes it does! Looks like the front is delayed a bit. If it holds, safe travels.

Left late today and are tied up at Palm Coast Marina. Off at 7am to get to Coca tomorrow.

Crossed on Monday and got pounded. Hoping for relief when we got for the bank but it got worse if anything. We would have been going into Grand in darkness so opted to run to Great Sale instead as I know that anchorage.
We ended up running for three hours in pitch black with the special effects man throwing buckets of water on the PH windows for effect. Entered the anchorage on GPS and Radar only, no visuals.
At Grand now.
More later.

menzies said:

We ended up running for three hours in pitch black with the special effects man throwing buckets of water on the PH windows for effect. Entered the anchorage on GPS and Radar only, no visuals.

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Sounds like you had the fun meter pegged.

Ted

menzies said:

Crossed on Monday and got pounded. Hoping for relief when we got for the bank but it got worse if anything. We would have been going into Grand in darkness so opted to run to Great Sale instead as I know that anchorage.
We ended up running for three hours in pitch black with the special effects man throwing buckets of water on the PH windows for effect. Entered the anchorage on GPS and Radar only, no visuals.
At Grand now.
More later.

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Man, that was a rough crossing. But you arrived and you’re afloat and everyone is safe. Now you can relax for a while.

Hope you took some video. I’m always interested in looking at other’s GS crossings. I’ve only done it twice and like to compare and learn how bad/good it can get.

First time across for us was at night and it seemed pretty uneventful, except for leaving Lake Worth at night with my crappy old eyesight. Coming back across from West End to Ft Pierce during the day seemed rough to me at the time, but when I look back at the video I took it seems pretty benign now.
I wonder if it was more my state of mind that made that crossing seem worse that it was. I think I was a little tired from our Bahamas trip.

Cardude, I took some video on the phone, but have not looked at it yet. But from previous times I did this it doesn't show real 3D visuals!

A snippet.

menzies said:

A snippet.

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Were the stabilizers on? I'd be installing seat belts before the next crossing

huh, doesn't look that bad. Were you passed by a bunch of Contenders and SeeVees doing 20kts??