Hurricane Irma

Another place to try in Wilmington, NC is Bennett Brothers on the Cape Fear River.

I am curious, I realize its hard to predict, but does anyone know what the forces are that actually change the course of a hurricane? Is it adjacent high/low pressure areas?

kev_rm said:

I am curious, I realize its hard to predict, but does anyone know what the forces are that actually change the course of a hurricane? Is it adjacent high/low pressure areas?

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Yes, both of those plus the water temperature. For us the warm Gulf Stream helps as storms off the Florida East Coast tend to follow the warm water all else being equal - and that curves away from us up here!

http://oceanexplorer.noaa.gov/facts/hurricanes.html

kev_rm said:

I am curious, I realize its hard to predict, but does anyone know what the forces are that actually change the course of a hurricane? Is it adjacent high/low pressure areas?

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For the east coast of the US it's the Bermuda High and the jet stream that seem to steer them. The weaker the Bermuda High the sooner they turn north. Unfortunately the Bermuda High is feeling pretty strong right now.

Anything I should or shouldn't tell my insurance company?

This is a part of the "discussion" that the NHC posts with their updates. This discusses some of the steering forces for Irma: ( source: Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion)

Irma has been moving a little south of due west today, and the
longer-term motion estimate is 265/11 kt. The hurricane will
reach the southwestern portion of a strong mid-level ridge that is
centered over the central Atlantic later today or tonight. This
should result in a westward, then west-northwestward turn over the
next 24 to 36 hours. This motion is expected to bring the hurricane
near or over the northern Leeward Islands on Tuesday night or early
Wednesday. A large mid-latitude trough that is predicted to deepen
over the eastern U.S. during the next few days is forecast to lift
northeastward late in the week, which is expected to cause the
subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic to build westward.
As a result, Irma is predicted to remain on a general
west-northwestward heading on days 3 through 5. The dynamical
model guidance is in excellent agreement through 72 hours, with
some increase in spread late in the period, however the typically
more reliable ECMWF and GFS are in very good agreement through day
5, and the new NHC track forecast lies very close to those models.

Steve91T said:

Anything I should or shouldn't tell my insurance company?

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Like what?

You should have told them everything they wanted at policy writing time.

Trust me, they know a lot more than you about the storm and its potential impact of their coverages in the path!

Gustavia is the farthest thing you can imagine from a hurricane hole, Most days its got a swell. And you can roll your guts out in the anchorage. Totaly open wnw to North

Anguila hurricane hole

Got back today after a week of running my company's command center supporting our operations in and around Houston. Bringing in about 450 employees from Oklahoma, Arkansas, NC/SC and other states. Been working pretty much 24/7 during that time but had a light at the end of the tunnel in knowing that come today I would fly back home to Jupiter, FL and spend the next two-three days off resting. Wrong. Boat is in a little hurricane hole marina surrounded by residential condos but around the corner from and very close to Jupiter Inlet. Have put off buying new dock lines since getting the boat but went into overdrive and have about $1,100 worth coming on Thursday. Haven't ever had a boat in the water for a hurricane but dockmaster is prepared to help me out some. Luckily 35 year old son is visiting and will help with hurricane shutters at home. Maybe it will turn and not be too big a problem for us up here north of West Palm. Maybe but not betting on it.

Oops - hit Send too early. Sorry. My question was supposed to be, "Can 101TUG get to Sint Maarten rather than Gustavia? SM is V. good for storms) And, does Anguilla have a hurricane hole?"
But it's too late to make that crossing to SM, if already at St Bart's.

Steve91T said:

Anything I should or shouldn't tell my insurance company?

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Like say,the boat is in the direct path of a hurricane expected through in 2 days?
"Yes", you should, its called "Duty of Disclosure",even though the insurer will likely say "No". It(drastically) alters the risk, which is why you have to disclose it.

CDreamer said:

Oops - hit Send too early. Sorry. My question was supposed to be, "Can 101TUG get to Sint Maarten rather than Gustavia? SM is V. good for storms) And, does Anguilla have a hurricane hole?"
But it's too late to make that crossing to SM, if already at St Bart's.

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Hello hello sorry for black out I was at sea like you can imagine...

Sunday afternoon I made full south, I arrived yesterday end of the day in ST Lucia under Martinique.

This one is huge Cat 4 that going to destroy a lot, Gustavia Harbor are empty of boat only around 10 decay sailboat on water.

ST Maarten going to have lot of damage too and sure some boat going to finished in matches.

even 240NM down the swell going to be 12' but glad I'm on Rodney Bay Marine really protected for surge, I'm normally suppose to have no wind here :roll eyes:and I really hope.

strong think to my family and friends stay up fingers cross...we will see in 2 days how is going.

good luck and be prepared to all people where Irma going to pass

Hugues

After almost 11 years of nothing ,a lot of new folks in FL may find out about the value of "Be Prepaired".

Up the central - western coast of Florida all the way up Florida.
From sept 5 AM projection for this coming weekend.
And was reading could become cat 5 from cat 4.
Such a storm would be devastating such a wide and large area, it will be hard for Floridians to escape the coming destruction.

Definitely panic a little is warranted if your in the way of it, do something if you can.

So for all you x-sailors out there, should I remove my jib? My boat is in central FL near La Belle. Some models have the storm passing close to here with winds possibly 50 plus.

I tied the boat for a hurricane when I left with many lines tied to strong piles on land, but I didn't think about removing the jib because I'm not an experienced sailor, and frankly I don't even know how to remove it.

Now a cat 5 with 175 mph winds - hope everyone is prepared and stays safe.

cardude01 said:

So for all you x-sailors out there, should I remove my jib? My boat is in central FL near La Belle. Some models have the storm passing close to here with winds possibly 50 plus.

I tied the boat for a hurricane when I left with many lines tied to strong piles on land, but I didn't think about removing the jib because I'm not an experienced sailor, and frankly I don't even know how to remove it.

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Assuming it is roller furling, yes.

But FF may have some good input too.

Yeah, his input was take it down. He has a sailor buddy going to check it out for me, but if that fails I might have to fly down and figure it out. If I have time.

Just FYI, if I ever dock my boat next to you, I seem to be a hurricane magnet. [emoji23]

cardude01 said:

Yeah, his input was take it down. He has a sailor buddy going to check it out for me, but if that fails I might have to fly down and figure it out. If I have time.

Just FYI, if I ever dock my boat next to you, I seem to be a hurricane magnet. [emoji23]

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Glad you didnt come up to try my dingy motor! ?
But see you down there this winter maybe....please be smart and safe....?

All hurricane winds rapidly drop when moving inland, so cat 5 at the coast is not going to last. It is the storm surge and huge heavy flooding rains that cause the most trouble for most people.

Lots of trees blowing over killing power lines and then you have no power for week or so. Isabel caused our area lots of trouble, lots of trees falling and crushing homes. We were out of power for 10 days.

We had 80 mph sustained winds for a short time, we also had times of little wind. During Isabel, inside our house, we could hear huge crashes which turned out to be trees falling over onto houses.

Was quite the sight to see brick houses with a large tree about 2 foot diameter cutting right through 2 story homes all the way to the ground floors.

Sitting here at Halifax Harbor Marina in Daytona Beach. Waiting, watching. I had moved to a floating dock here just before Matthew. Had be on a fixed dock in the other Basin, but it like being on a t-head. Boat did fine, so I stayed on the floating dock. , both fixed and floating did well, but that was then and this is now

Cardude -
Let's go on the premise that Irma is going to be worse than 50 knots in CF. I hope not but I didn't think Harvey would drop 47" of rain on my Houston home either.
Also I'm assuming some stuff since I don't know your boat - skip anything here that doesn't apply to you.
So...
Yes - remove all sails (if the main is on the boom it will be a PITA but do it anyway. Take pix of any connections or reefing lines so you'll remember later. You can leave the sails in the cabin but they'll be in your way - better to take them home.
It's a good time to have a sailmaker do touch-up to the stitching, wear-spots, etc)
The jib will shred on the forestay so take it off. Plus you don't want the windage.

To remove it, unfurl the jib and let it "flag".
Remove the sheets from the jib clew.
Disconnect the tack - usually a shackle- down at the deck.
Release the jib halyard and pull the jib luff down out of the track of the roller furler.
Disconnect the jib halyard at the head of the jib, clip it to a ring on the mast and cleat it tight.

The main will have a "wide spot" in the mast track- that's where the bolt rope in the sail luff will slide in/out of the track. You will probably need to raise the main to get started. Disconnect the tack at the gooseneck fitting, slide that lower corner up to the "wide spot" and then lower the main, pulling it all out at the wide spot.
The sails will seem much larger on the ground...you need to "flake" them (a way to fold sails so they will be manageable). There are YouTube videos if you haven't done it before. Same for the main. Takes two people if there's any breeze.

Then, loop a line around the mast and all the halyards as high up as you can reach, to hold them closer to the mast.

Charge your batteries to run the bilge pumps and disconnect your dockside power cord - put it on the boat or take it with you.

Last thing when you're done in the cabin: duct tape around the main hatchway on the outside (NOT painters tape). Wind-driven rain will get in if you don't. Don't just lock your wheel - tie it. You'd be amazed at the stuff that will hit the rudder even deep down under the boat. Pieces of docks, etc.

I moved my 40' sailboat to an empty 60' slip in Hurricane Ike. So I had plenty of scope on the dock lines to ride out the surge. Only 80 mph winds max but the tidal surge was 16'. My boat would have been fine except a big steel ketch broke loose and banged into me for 12 hours. I was one of only 14 boats (out of 160) that was still floating afterwards. Still a total loss due to the ketch, but I did all I could.
You may not get any surge where you are...that would be good.

Good luck everyone...maybe Irma will turn north and go back out to sea. Texas is sending a cool front your way to help with that.

"The key to happiness is having low expectations."

Thanks so much for all the info!

During Isabel, I stayed in my slip.
I set up long sets of fore and aft spring lines, used 3/4" 3 strand nylon lines, that allowed the boat to go up and down a lot with the surge.

The 3/4" bow and stern lines I loosened, gave more slack. Stern was still cross tied. I also added 1/2 inch bow and stern lines, basically doubled up lines with 1/2 "lines a little tighter than the 3/4" lines as they will stretch more.

The boat survived a lot of storm surge ok. There was a steel hook someone had screwed into that piling, and it caught the rail, I should have removed that piling hook. Day after storm passed, tide was still much higher and the rail had grabbed the hook and boat had heeled over. I used a crow bar to pry it off that hook. Rail survived ok, but if the storm surge had completely gone, it might have ripped out the boat rail at a low tide. One thing that helped, the pilings were pretty high up there.

cardude01 said:

Thanks so much for all the info!

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Are you at a floating or fixed dock?

I'm at a fixed dock. I'm inland on the Okeechobee waterway near La Belle, so allegedly no tidal surge because of the locks.

I gotta say this one scares me. I've never seen all the models as tight as these are. They all seem to be headed to south Florida. Lots to do to get ready.

cardude01 said:

I'm at a fixed dock. I'm inland on the Okeechobee waterway near La Belle, so allegedly no tidal surge because of the locks.

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Not likely, but it has happened. Still you are in a relatively protected location. With what you had to deal with at home, I hope you don't see a need to fly to FL to check on things.

We're at the airport in Charlotte, waiting to fly home. The girls we left in Nashville, moved to Barkley and are driving home today.

I'm realizing now I didn't leave the boat prepared correctly. There is a sailor there local who might get the jib down and do some of the other things on CDreamer's list. I really don't want to try to fly into the path of this storm and then get out again by Friday.