90% chance of cyclone in Gulf?

Saw this today. Anyone following this possibility?

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.nola.com/v1/articles/20894966/chance_of_tropical_cyclone_dev.amp

Its the Gulf , what new?

Now till November everyone , even us in hurricane holes keep their fingers crossed.

Lol. True. I guess "90% chance" caught my attention!

Do you have a hurricane escape spot available this summer?

Passage weather does not show it growing into anything evil. So far just calling for snotty weather later in the week near NOLA.

Of course we can trust the forcasters, right?

Keeping my eye on it. Leaving for florida this Saturday by road. Will have to move my boat by Friday mourning if needed. Seems that whenever I'm leaving for a while a dad gum storm pops up. Go figure.

We need the rain down here in south Texas, so I wouldn't mind a rainy few days.

I like the way the attached link says it is not expected to intensify much, but "with the possibility of a strong tropical storm at best."

Not, "at worst." I guess they are hoping for something more sensational.

I just got a phone alert that our area, So. Louisiana, will be under a "tropical storm warning until June 22 @ 4:47 PM EDT"

Yep, we just got the first band off of this storm here in Jackson, MS. Got several alerts for local flooding. Check those lines!

Heading out in the morning to move the boatBetter safe than sorry. Will watch the 10pm forecast-hope it turns.

It's the Gulf. It's summer. There is going to be some snotty weather.

What Fred said.

The gulf is also really large. The TS threat of it develops will still affect only a small coastal area. Likely TX and/or LA. Florida will be lovely. I'm going down for 2 weeks on my boat on Saturday. The extended forecast looks fantastic for the Keys. We're going to Dry Tortuga.

"Do you have a hurricane escape spot available this summer?"

One

ddalme, looks like we are going to take it on the nose. Winds will not be too bad. The 6-8 inches of rain tomorrow night, is going to slow things down though.

Stay dry Doug!

Blue
Looks like it'll head your way for sure. Still going down a little after 10am and remove canvas on both boats and raise the 23 as high as it'll go and throw a few more line on the Relenti. Hoping it heads further west so we don't have extremely high tides. Make discision this afternoon if I'll move the boats. Hope all is well.

cardude01 said:

Saw this today. Anyone following this possibility?

https://www.google.com/amp/amp.nola.com/v1/articles/20894966/chance_of_tropical_cyclone_dev.amp

Click to expand...

Cardude,

It already is a cyclone, with sustained winds at 40 mph. But if one is reasonably prepared it shouldn't be a huge issue. I suspect we'll have a lot more, like we usually do, but rarely a huge threat.

Blue
Stay safe and if help is needed just call.

We are in MADISONVILLE ,Marina Del Ray, everyone in the marina is getting ready for much much rain.

I always get confused when all we're talking about is a tropical storm, but I see people talking about hurricanes and hurricane preparation. I would just think that living in that area, one is always prepared for a tropical storm. The forecast I see says 45 mph winds and gusts up to 60 mph. It just bothers me that if we treat storms and hurricanes the same mentally, then while we might overreact to storms, we'll eventually fail to react adequately to hurricanes.

Yes, we should be prepared, but I'd think our boats should always be prepared to handle a tropical storm.

In much of Florida the PM thunderstorm is the norm .

Having stuff stowed for 40-60K in the puffs , is the norm.

FF said:

In much of Florida the PM thunderstorm is the norm .

Having stuff stowed for 40-60K in the puffs , is the norm.

Click to expand...

That's where I'm coming from. Not intending to not show concern, but just think of tropical storms as more in the realm of normal life.

BandB said:

Yes, we should be prepared, but I'd think our boats should always be prepared to handle a tropical storm.

Click to expand...

Agree, along the Gulf Coast most of us do indeed prepare for TS conditions during the summer months. Heck, those daily thunderstorms can produce 40-60kts winds although not for extended periods. Still 15 minutes of sustained 40-60kt winds can inflict a lot of damage with a boat tied up improperly.
Problem with tropical systems are the flooding tides. Hard to get to your boat when marina is 2-3ft under water. Most marinas in our area have fixed piers, hard to adjust dock lines under adverse conditions, wish we had floating!

As stated, it is not the wind, it is the flooding. I have two trailer boats and an ATV under the house, that I need to move if I want to keep them. The big boat is not a concern, groceries are..... as we won't be going to the store for a few days.

Just an inconvenience that we have all been through many times before.

Here in Biloxi just a lot of rain, tides about 2 ft. above normal, 15 - 20 knot winds. Tomorrow about the same. This one will soon be a distant memory, will take some time to dry out. Will be a good year if this is as bad as it gets.

Just got back from Vermillon Bay (The Point)- Lite wind out of NE-tide normal, no rain yet. Just hope it stays that way.

there's always the possibility that the meteorologists goofed.....and the Tropical Storm is upgraded to a Hurricane unexpectedly.

Tide up about 1-1 1/2 foot in Madisonville

Benthic2 said:

there's always the possibility that the meteorologists goofed.....and the Tropical Storm is upgraded to a Hurricane unexpectedly.

Click to expand...

I would say yes if it was forecast to have winds close to 70 mph, but with them forecast in the 50 mph range maximum, not too likely. I realize also that we're talking about an area that can't really handle the extra water very well so there's a peril that other areas might not face.

Im taking the rain days from work to finish up a few projects on the boat. Where going to horn this weekend, should be very nice

Water rose another foot in Madisonville over night and still raining. Sure like the floating docks at Del Ray