Will Autonomous Ships Make the Seas Safer or Riskier?
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MurrayM
Guru
"Black Swan" events; https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
RT Firefly
Enigma
Greetings,
Hmmm....interesting chain of comments. I experience Black Swan events (thanks Mr. MM-never heard that term before) on a daily basis. Hell, just waking up in the morning is a BS experience. Never ceases to amaze me.
A strictly mechanical reaction to an event, keeping in mind a foreseeable scenario, can be programmed quite readily as evidenced by something as simple as your wall thermostat. An autonomous vessel is just a very complex wall thermostat and reaction/operation parameters can be built in.
The problems will arise as mentioned when a BS occurs. Now the solution, as I see it, is currently evolving out of the realm of what used to be science fiction a la Eando Binder (I Robot-1939) ie: mechanical self awareness. So the concept is most definitely NOT new, just able to be realized now with increasing technology.
Hmmm...Better read up on Asimov's Three Laws... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics
Hmmm....interesting chain of comments. I experience Black Swan events (thanks Mr. MM-never heard that term before) on a daily basis. Hell, just waking up in the morning is a BS experience. Never ceases to amaze me.
A strictly mechanical reaction to an event, keeping in mind a foreseeable scenario, can be programmed quite readily as evidenced by something as simple as your wall thermostat. An autonomous vessel is just a very complex wall thermostat and reaction/operation parameters can be built in.
The problems will arise as mentioned when a BS occurs. Now the solution, as I see it, is currently evolving out of the realm of what used to be science fiction a la Eando Binder (I Robot-1939) ie: mechanical self awareness. So the concept is most definitely NOT new, just able to be realized now with increasing technology.
Hmmm...Better read up on Asimov's Three Laws... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Laws_of_Robotics
WOW - This is quite the thread to stumble upon. Couldn't take time to read all posts; some quite long... but good points seem to be made on several levels.
Just thought I might add a "Little Bitty" - Great BIG Game-Changer that I believe is not toooooo far off in the future.
I.E.: Molecular Teller-Transportation
Star Trek "toys" in the 60's were simply the next evolution of Dick Tracy "toys" during early 20th Century.
Once Molecular Teller-Transportation really gets perfected - Well... just let your mind wander/wonder in amazement of the changes that will globally occur for our entire human race.
Anyone who thinks this will not become available holds similar blind spots to those who said Flying / Radio / TV / X-Ray / Microwave Cooking / Nuclear-Power… etc… etc would not happen.
Be ready to be utterly astounded once Molecular Teller-Transportation grows legs. World changes of all sorts will become faster and more pronounced than what occurred via any (human or product) transportation device ever before invented/created/perfected by the “Human-Brain”!
You can thank God, or you can thank evolution… makes no matter to the Fact that: Molecular Teller-Transportation will eventually become available on a large scale and that it will alter our world beyond anyone’s current wildest expectations.
Happy Future Daze! - Art
Just thought I might add a "Little Bitty" - Great BIG Game-Changer that I believe is not toooooo far off in the future.
I.E.: Molecular Teller-Transportation
Star Trek "toys" in the 60's were simply the next evolution of Dick Tracy "toys" during early 20th Century.
Once Molecular Teller-Transportation really gets perfected - Well... just let your mind wander/wonder in amazement of the changes that will globally occur for our entire human race.
Anyone who thinks this will not become available holds similar blind spots to those who said Flying / Radio / TV / X-Ray / Microwave Cooking / Nuclear-Power… etc… etc would not happen.
Be ready to be utterly astounded once Molecular Teller-Transportation grows legs. World changes of all sorts will become faster and more pronounced than what occurred via any (human or product) transportation device ever before invented/created/perfected by the “Human-Brain”!
You can thank God, or you can thank evolution… makes no matter to the Fact that: Molecular Teller-Transportation will eventually become available on a large scale and that it will alter our world beyond anyone’s current wildest expectations.
Happy Future Daze! - Art
OMG!!!!
This has to be one of the absolutely best responses I've read in this thread!
If I wasn't sending this from a phone, (who'd a thunk it'd be possible? ), I'd add a "bow down" emoticon! Lol
But i can't, so I'm gonna crawl back in my cave and continue to hammer and chisel out a letter on this rock slate...
OD
I just want to see the computer do this: lol
https://www.quora.com/How-did-ships...-it-was-holed-below-or-close-to-the-waterline
I'm sure there's a solution. Maybe the ability to "grow" a new skin to patch a hole or rip?
As marin said, maybe use the engineering technology to make the valves fit and function better?
But I still believe that some things, especially on a ship, will still require some human intervention. Use technology to our advantage, to make life easier, maybe less stressful and of course more cost effective.
Ok, back to the cave.
OD
https://www.quora.com/How-did-ships...-it-was-holed-below-or-close-to-the-waterline
I'm sure there's a solution. Maybe the ability to "grow" a new skin to patch a hole or rip?
As marin said, maybe use the engineering technology to make the valves fit and function better?
But I still believe that some things, especially on a ship, will still require some human intervention. Use technology to our advantage, to make life easier, maybe less stressful and of course more cost effective.
Ok, back to the cave.
OD
I don't disagree with that. But the humans will have no need to be on the ship (or the plane). They will simply be refining the systems that are controlling the ships.
And Spy's notion of why have to ship anything by sea at all is, I believe, the ultimate fate of ocean shipping. But we have to crawl before we can walk and I suspect that fully autonomous ships will be an interim step to whatever replaces ocean shipping altogether.
In Boeing's archives building there are scale models of airplanes conceived in the 1980s of massive blended wing aircraft that would replace ocean tankers for the international transport of oil. Obviously these aircraft never got past the conceptual dreaming stage.
But the fact there were design engineers seriously thinking about this idea and actually designing aicraft that could conceivably accomplish the mission is a good demonstration of man's vision in action.
If a market had existed for these aircraft, and if the technology had supported their development, manufacture and operation-- powerplants, structural materials, ground facilities, control systems; it's a long, long list-- they would have made it past the dusty-model-on-a-shelf stage.
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BaltimoreLurker
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I think I just stumbled onto the "You kids, get off my lawn!" thread.
It's probably going happen. Because we just don't know what we don't know about the future.
It's probably going happen. Because we just don't know what we don't know about the future.
Northern Spy
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BaltimoreLurker
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Because it will "probably" cost less.
Maybe "possibly" or "quite likely" may have been a better choice of words. Somewhere between possible and probable.
RT Firefly
Enigma
At risk of reawakening this slumbering thread that once blazed across the ether for three days, here's news of an actual autonomous commercial ship in the works:
"In early May, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, a Norwegian maritime-technology firm, and Yara ASA, a fertilizer manufacturer, announced a partnership to build the world’s first fully autonomous cargo containership. Manned voyages will start in 2018, and in 2020 the Yara Birkeland will set sail all on its own. It’s the beginning of a revolution that should transform one of the world’s oldest and most conservative industries — and make global shipping safer, faster and cleaner than it’s ever been."
No mention in that quote of the truly decisive consideration, i.e., efficiency (or put differently, money). But read on and it's clear that autonomous ships are simply industrialization carried to a new level.
https://www.workboat.com/blogs/mari...tm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter
The A.S. may be safer in some ways, but how safe will the rest of us be, who boat anywhere near it? I'm imagining a maritime insurance underwriter sitting down to rate this new class of vessel, or an admiralty lawyer, each asking themselves, "What could possibly go wrong here?"
"In early May, Kongsberg Gruppen ASA, a Norwegian maritime-technology firm, and Yara ASA, a fertilizer manufacturer, announced a partnership to build the world’s first fully autonomous cargo containership. Manned voyages will start in 2018, and in 2020 the Yara Birkeland will set sail all on its own. It’s the beginning of a revolution that should transform one of the world’s oldest and most conservative industries — and make global shipping safer, faster and cleaner than it’s ever been."
No mention in that quote of the truly decisive consideration, i.e., efficiency (or put differently, money). But read on and it's clear that autonomous ships are simply industrialization carried to a new level.
https://www.workboat.com/blogs/mari...tm_campaign=newsletter&utm_content=newsletter
The A.S. may be safer in some ways, but how safe will the rest of us be, who boat anywhere near it? I'm imagining a maritime insurance underwriter sitting down to rate this new class of vessel, or an admiralty lawyer, each asking themselves, "What could possibly go wrong here?"
Bear with me here: Our two cars both have automatic braking, lane change sensors, back-up alarms if they sense approaching cars from either side, etc. Hers learns each driver's highway habits in about 50 miles and vibrates the steering wheel if it thinks you're getting sleepy (based on your left-right drift). If a car is coming up too fast from behind and you're stopped, it instantly moves the headrests slightly forward and tightens your seatbelt before a potential collision. It's also very intuitive. No false alarms in 3 years.
Point is, I've seen a lot of reports over the years where people fired off flares at sea near a supposedly manned ship with zero response. Nobody really on watch. My guess is the autonomous vessels will actually be far more "aware" of small craft, and able to take appropriate action.
Although I don't know what would happen if one of them developed a big leak in the middle of the south Atlantic.
Point is, I've seen a lot of reports over the years where people fired off flares at sea near a supposedly manned ship with zero response. Nobody really on watch. My guess is the autonomous vessels will actually be far more "aware" of small craft, and able to take appropriate action.
Although I don't know what would happen if one of them developed a big leak in the middle of the south Atlantic.
Lou_tribal
Guru
I did not read the whole thread so bare with me if I repeat something that has been already said. Want it or want it not but autonomous transportation s coming our way and faster than we think. Transportation companies are already taking action to align themselves in a way to be able to compete against near future concurrent with autonomous truck/boat.
L.
L.
No argument here, and I'm increasingly ready to welcome autonomous vehicles on public streets and highways. They could hardly be worse than some of the purportedly cognitive life forms that I see behind the wheel of "manned" cars on the road. For a ship at sea, maybe 99+% of the time, unmanned operation will be uneventful. It's the $#^%storm that breaks during the remaining .5% of the time that concerns me.
RT Firefly
Enigma
Greetings,
Mr. B. With the ever increasing powers of AI, it may be that those "$#^%storms" will be less of a problem. Higher tech, better built and stabilized ships will most possibly be keeping pace with dehumanization.
Mr. B. With the ever increasing powers of AI, it may be that those "$#^%storms" will be less of a problem. Higher tech, better built and stabilized ships will most possibly be keeping pace with dehumanization.
Wifey B: So, full of sh.......?
Why yes, as a matter of fact!
SaltyDawg86
Senior Member
Or when it breaks down, gets hacked, gets hijacked, has a fire, etc.
Lou_tribal
Guru
Indeed these are major risk and they will be taken in account but the risk will not prevent this to happen (no pro or con just matter of fact). Than after any major failure things may change or improved that's life.
L.
psneeld
Guru
Like what happens now sometimes....
Drones are here to stay, pilots have to get used to it and like always the surface fleet will follow in 50 years or so.
In approx 50 yrs. [at or near 2067] if society in general still stands at all similar to today [e.g. pretty much the same leading nations exist], which it likely will, my five grand kids will be at or near my age. I'll be swimming with the fishes!
The way I look at their experienced living generalities during those 50 yrs. and at that 50 yr. mark as compared to my life so far - is this:
Not too much difference - in that: Every generation lives through the evolution of society "growing up" and of experiencing technological improvements. Of course, the rates of growth and technology get faster and faster. But... people learn to cope! That is one great attribute of the human race - we cope with circumstances as required. There will be up and down times, as there always have been. However, some day my grand kids will probably be somewhere thinking as I am right now - i.e. "what will my [their] grand kids experience.
Evolution of the human race. Truly a wonderful thing!
The way I look at their experienced living generalities during those 50 yrs. and at that 50 yr. mark as compared to my life so far - is this:
Not too much difference - in that: Every generation lives through the evolution of society "growing up" and of experiencing technological improvements. Of course, the rates of growth and technology get faster and faster. But... people learn to cope! That is one great attribute of the human race - we cope with circumstances as required. There will be up and down times, as there always have been. However, some day my grand kids will probably be somewhere thinking as I am right now - i.e. "what will my [their] grand kids experience.
Evolution of the human race. Truly a wonderful thing!
Lou_tribal
Guru
Wifey B: Sorry, but technology is evolving. I can't see any evolution of the human race.
%0year ago, your thumbs was used to stop car on the road side... now your thumbs are used to type on a phone keyboard, that evolution of your thumbs
In a same way, 50 years ago at the same hour of the day my fingers were used to scroutch my nose, now I am typing silly things on a keyboard
L.
Wifey B: Sorry, but technology is evolving. I can't see any evolution of the human race.
Wifey B - That proves you never knew the girls to which I was acquainted during my previous lives... in these gestation years of becoming my current and future being! :lol:
My teens and early 20's... "cave gals" were just so much FUN!!
Sailor of Fortune
Guru
From a different perspective, how are these ships going to be assisted/salvaged in times of peril? I get it, tech is coming but just wonder how insurance underwriters are going to treat risk on these ships. are they completely unmanned (I know nothing about them) or is there going to be a core crew aboard. How will salvors assist these ships when in distress?
It seems to me that a whole new chapter in maritime operations will evolve over the next couple of decades ( as it always does) faster than previous years.
It seems to me that a whole new chapter in maritime operations will evolve over the next couple of decades ( as it always does) faster than previous years.
cappy208
Guru
When they work perfectly, no one will notice. When they screw up(and they will) the blame game will start to deflect responsibility. Some things never change.
Benthic2
Guru
If a plane can be flown remotely, why can't a ship ?? I wonder how much cost saving there will actually be though....the cost of the crew has to be a very small percentage of the transportation costs.....and then there will be an increase in technology which will be expensive. I'm all for automation and technology, I'm just not sure what's to be gained here. I'd rather see it going like passenger planes that have both autopilot and human pilots working together.
