NOAA Says More Hurricanes - what's ur Plan

Above-normal Atlantic hurricane season is most likely this year | National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

I'm a west coast sailor, and do not know what is the "normal" procedure for those in the frequent path of hurricanes.
Do you pull the boat onto a yard, flee to a protected anchorage, have a favorite bomb-proof marina? What do you do when the big one comes?

Greetings,
Mr. A20. "Do you pull the boat onto a yard, flee to a protected anchorage, have a favorite bomb-proof marina?" All or none of the above or tie down as best you can and hold on. There are only so many hurricane holes and too many boats. The variability of landfall, direction and strength of various systems makes selection of a 100% safe location difficult. Just my $.02...I'm sure others will offer their more experienced views.

Our plan is to stay in Michigan during hurricane season.

Gee. One should expect "more than normal" hurricanes half of the time.

I have two spots, both up the river. One is about 3 miles and the other is about 5. The first one is full I'll go to the next one

We stay right where we are. We do make sure all lines are doubled and right and that the boats are the best protected they can be. We use what we feel is a well protected marina. This is South Florida with a huge volume of boats. There's no where to take them all and certainly can't remove them all from the water.

Different people in different areas plan differently.

That is comical.

The headline says "Above normal Atlantic Hurricane season is likely this year"....
but the article says that there is a 45% chance of an above normal season....

45 % is less than half....that means there is a 55% chance of an average season or less hurricane activity than average.

And more importantly....even if they knew what they were doing...it would be totally irrelevant.

Just imagine 20 named storms making landfall this year. That would be a terrible year....yes ???

But....if all 20 storms hit Miami and you keep your boat in Myrtle Beach, you had a great year.....

If only 1 named storm makes landfall, that would be a great year for everyone....unless that 1 storm hit your marina.....

National statistics mean nothing for an individual, and NOAA says that above average hurricane activity has a 45% chance of happening...and they call that "likely" ....but that means that there's a 55% chance of average or less than average activity...and that seems 'More Likely".....

its all a crapshoot.....pay attention....move when you need to....and ignore the predictions.

The Weather Service is just guessing. Hurricanes are a normal occurrence in some portions of the Earth. ... Thankfully, I don't have to deal with them near my home port. ... Have experienced two hurricanes on ships, once receiving a serious knee strain taking two years to heal.

NOAA's predictions are historically wrong. You have better accuracy predicting with a coin toss. Avoiding FL during hurricane season is the first part of my plan. Spending most of it in the Great Lakes this year.

Ted

Mark wrote;
"The Weather Service is just guessing"

Hogwash.
I'm supprised at you Mark. I would think an incredible amount of information is fed into a pool and all the information is aligned to the greatest probabilities. Sure, probabilities may not happen. But far more likely the probabilities will happen, to some degree or to a greater degree than most anyone fears. Gambling is stupid. Acting on the best scientific predictions is smart.

Acheron2010 said:

Do you pull the boat onto a yard, flee to a protected anchorage, have a favorite bomb-proof marina? What do you do when the big one comes?

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Yes. The "which" depends on more storm detail... but then also depends on how quickly our own yard might be able to haul and block if necessary, whether significant follow-on storm surge (which might flood our back lot) is also predicted, whether temporary slips are available at our preferred better-protected marinas, etc.

IOW, it depends.

-Chris

My plan is like BandB's. Find a marina in FL where I can get back to from the Bahamas in a day or three, tie up and prepare, then get out.

Some marinas make boats move if a hurricane is coming, right?

Greetings,
Mr. 01. Yup. it's my understanding some marinas DO make you leave.

cardude01 said:

My plan is like BandB's. Find a marina in FL where I can get back to from the Bahamas in a day or three, tie up and prepare, then get out.

Some marinas make boats move if a hurricane is coming, right?

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Not in Florida. It's illegal to do so.

I am somewhat new to the southeast US, originally from the PNW. Matthew was my first hurricane. I recently had a dock neighbor tell me the other day "well.. you have to be *somewhere*, so its just a matter if the hurricane is in the same place or not" For some reason this gave me comfort.

kev_rm said:

I am somewhat new to the southeast US, originally from the PNW. Matthew was my first hurricane. I recently had a dock neighbor tell me the other day "well.. you have to be *somewhere*, so its just a matter if the hurricane is in the same place or not" For some reason this gave me comfort.

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Some areas seem to have more activity than others or so you believe until....

Those in NJ thought it was a SE issue, until Sandy.

SE Florida has been a long time without, but then this is the 25th anniversary of Andrew.

Then rule number one. Don't risk life for property.

BandB said:

Some areas seem to have more activity than others or so you believe until....

Those in NJ thought it was a SE issue, until Sandy.

SE Florida has been a long time without, but then this is the 25th anniversary of Andrew.

Then rule number one. Don't risk life for property.

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+10000 on that rule.

did find it totally amazing all the bravado about people staying behind for Matthew in October. Me - took dog and cat in the RV west on the interstate a couple hours and had a lovely if breezy evening in a state park, came back to two very large trees on the house (boat was fine)

Oh horse pucky....anyone that understands hurricanes knows that any waterfront from Texas to Maine can be devastated by weather....

Matthew wasn't a hurricane when it hit NJ...it was extratropical.

I have lived in Miami, Pensacola, Mobile, Annapolis and NJ and weathered the effects of hurricanes and extratropical storms.

Only an idiot boater does't understand and follow them closely.

In 45 years of owning boats in those places and a few more, Matthew was the only one I ever moved a boat for. I have studied them like a hawk...of course in my USCG career, I was also responsible for hurricane preparedness and asset movement when necessary.

So no, not only SE residents care about hurricanes.

In fact experienced boaters know the Northeast probably experiences more destructive Noreasters than east coast Florida has experienced hurricanes.....

No offense to the panhandlers...you get your assessment kicked on a regular basis.

I'm securing the boats on the docks behind the house and if a cat 1 or greater approaches from the west, I'm leaving town and hope for the best.

History is on our side in the Tampa St. Pete area.

But lot's of people don't know. I hear all the time people talking about keeping their boat north of FL which some insurers might encourage, but as far as providing hurricane protection, just doesn't. People say you can't get insurance to cover their boat in FL. That's just such a crazy statement when you realize there are more boats in FL than any other state. One can research the history and then even toss that aside a bit knowing the next one might make history. The Gulf Coast certainly has it's share. I have a cousin who lives near Beaufort, NC and he's been impacted by hurricanes far more than we have. Plain and simple, if you live on or near a coast, you may have a storm and if it's the East or Gulf Coast, then you may have an Atlantic hurricane. You follow them, monitor, and make the best choices you can based on the available information.

People can evacuate, but you can't move your home when a hurricane approaches and while some may move boats, the majority of boats cannot be evacuated.

So much misinformation too and living in Fort Lauderdale, we get questioned by others who act as if we're in the middle of a war zone. Yet, the hurricanes to hit Fort Lauderdale have been few and far between. We get asked about flooding and people are shocked that living just off the ICW we're in a zone and elevation that hasn't flooded in the last 100 years and is only in a moderate flood zone, not upper level.

You just made my point.

A lot of people in NJ that are experienced boaters do take hurricanes seriously...and now for the next 20 years.....as seriously as anyone else.

But even before Sandy, some of us knew to be vigilant...and plenty of people had me on speed dial to let them know my thoughts when Sandy was heading our way.

psneeld said:

You just made my point.

A lot of people in NJ that are experienced boaters do take hurricanes seriously...and now for the next 20 years.....as seriously as anyone else.

But even before Sandy, some of us knew to be vigilant...and plenty of people had me on speed dial to let them know my thoughts when Sandy was heading our way.

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Not arguing some knew but many did not recognize that. Many only seem to know what they've experienced. What drives me crazy is that so many people think the risk disappears once they cross the line out of Florida. They talk about moving their boat to GA or SC.

You've lived the life in hurricane prone areas and know the facts versus the fables, but you're in a minority.

Nothing to worry about in the Northeast......Not.

These are only the direct hits. Being just east of any of these tracks can be and has been devastating. Not to mention the storms that aren't called hurricanes. The blizzard of 78 comes to mind. The snow got all the press while the coastline was severely damaged from New York North and east.

Easting said:

These are only the direct hits. Being just east of any of these tracks can be and has been devastating. Not to mention the storms that aren't called hurricanes. The blizzard of 78 comes to mind. The snow got all the press while the coastline was severely damaged from New York North and east.

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You do realize that information is 20 years old I hope.

BandB said:

You do realize that information is 20 years old I hope.

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Doesn't change the history.

Interesting data on Hurricane City.

Hurricanes/Tropical Storms what cities and islands get hit most (rankings)

Noteworthy that among the 10 most frequently hit areas, 3 are in NC, 3 in the Bahamas, 1 is the Cayman Islands and 1 is Bermuda, 1 is in FL and 1 is in GA.

Yet there have been Hurricanes and tropical storms like Sandy and the one that flooded the entire Northern Chesapeake a few years earlier recently...plus the extratropical storms since the 90's that have caused as much damage to the northeast as hurricanes that glanced Florida.


again...my point.....since that 20 year old info...plenty has happened so we in the NE have kept our guards up.


Just because we aren't in the SE, doesn't mean that Northeastern boaters aren't scared of bad weather that we let our guards down because we are north of that magic insurance line somewhere between the Fl border and Morehead City.


Everything from the perfect storm to the Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 haunts Mid Atlantic to New Englanders have been through some nasty stuff.. We don't envy anyone that endures a hurricane...but these storms are long forgotten in modern memory...and yet they really occur as if not more frequently than SE hurricanes.

psneeld said:

Ash Wednesday storm of 1962 .

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Wifey B: I think I missed that one.

The report I saw on the local news (Jax,Fl) said more than normal "NAMED STORM", not necessarily a hurricane. A "normal" year is 12 apparently. Powers that predict these things say 12-17 NAMED STORMS this year...maybe?

Nomad Willy said:

Mark wrote;
"The Weather Service is just guessing"

Hogwash.
I'm supprised at you Mark. I would think an incredible amount of information is fed into a pool and all the information is aligned to the greatest probabilities. Sure, probabilities may not happen. But far more likely the probabilities will happen, to some degree or to a greater degree than most anyone fears. Gambling is stupid. Acting on the best scientific predictions is smart.

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Charleton Heston in regard to Japanese Naval code interpretation: "Joe, you're guessing!"

Hal Holbrook playing the role of Joseph Rochefort responded: "We prefer to call it 'analysis'."