Hurricane Matthew?

Lobstah said:

There will always be people that wait too long. Never understood why, other than there's a huge tendancy for people to not believe they're responsible for themselves.
Waiting until now to pull the trigger and head west is...well, pure lunacy.
You should have been heading west 2 days ago, regardless of what TWC and NHC said.
As I have said to others, what's the UPSIDE to staying where you are?...there is none.
Part of this problem is related to liability and lawyers. Maybe a big part. If you tell me that I have to evacuate, and it turns out there's no need, you owe me for hotel, lost work/whatever. So many people want someone else to be responsible.

Anyway, nothing to do now but count the damage in 2 days.

We passed under the Skyway Bridge about 1.5hrs ago. A bit rocky out there, beam seas, but nothing too bad, and the Paradise is a fairly small ship. I expect things will get more rolly as we pass the tip of Fl, but my thoughts go out to those of you along the coast. This is going to be bad or worse, no good to be found.
Stay safe...double up those lines...

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The upside is what you have been preaching all along, the forecasts are so unoredictsble...why prepare and leave until you know its time?

Sure you have to have more ducks in a row....but for every hurricane I was initially concerned about....I have only really had to do anything for maybe 1 in 10. That's living and boating in the Miami, Pensacola/Mobile, and NJ areas.

I learned to wait till I had to pull the trigger, then take the necessary steps to prevent damage or injury.

Stay safe

Hoping all you Florida boaters hunkering down for the storm stay safe. I really dread seeing a bunch of once beautiful boats sitting in or on something other than the water they belong in, even worse, we don't want to lose anyone. Be careful and stay safe. Good luck from the left coast!

Be safe, my friends! Thoughts and prayers for you.

Haven't heard anything from Moonstruck the last day or two. The Weather Channel shows the bulls eye just south of him in Ft. Pierce.

It appears the hurricane is taking a slight turn west. Good for all.

Bigsfish said:

It appears the hurricane is taking a slight turn west. Good for all.

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Seriously? That's the worst thing that could happen now. We need an easterly turn.

Sorry, it's late. Meant the east. My bad.

Watch WESH 2 News | Local News - WESH Home

Live cast of the area where Matthew is expected to be coming in now.

And a reminder to look at the storm surge maps from NHC and temper what you hear on tv. Television deals in broad strokes of general areas and so automatically paints some worse than they are likely to be.

Hurricane MATTHEW

By example you'll see the area from Jupiter to Charleston shows 7-11' surge but if you examine closely it's only a few areas.

Stuart area looks bad between 1 AM and about 5 AM with winds at 83 mph. We're actually supposed to return briefly to 50+ mph.

I hope this situation works out. We so rarely get events like this it`s hard to comprehend, may you have as good fortune as is possible.

Still have power here in Vero Beach as of now, center is 50 miles due east and winds are gusting 70-80 right now.

Hang in there folks, worrying about everyone in state north of us.

Will get to the boat asap in AM.

BruceK said:

I hope this situation works out. We so rarely get events like this it`s hard to comprehend, may you have as good fortune as is possible.

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We very rarely have them either in this area and how it works out tomorrow is a matter of a few degrees in direction. The hurricane stayed further off shore in South Florida than many of the predictions. As it goes up the coast, it can go in either direction.

Nassau did get hit hard before it left the Bahamas.

SCOTTEDAVIS said:

Still have power here in Vero Beach as of now, center is 50 miles due east and winds are gusting 70-80 right now.

Hang in there folks, worrying about everyone in state north of us.

Will get to the boat asap in AM.

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70-80 this is lot of wind hope you boat is safe and don't get any damage

Wind speed probabilities have shifted lower for Jax this morning. I checked an hour ago and there was around a 75% probability for greater than 50 kts and 25% for greater than 64 knots.

JACKSONVILLE 34 82 13(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96)
JACKSONVILLE 50 20 40(60) 1(61) X(61) X(61) X(61) X(61)
JACKSONVILLE 64 5 20(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...l/070853.shtml

000
WTNT44 KNHC 070857
TCDAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
500 AM EDT FRI OCT 07 2016

The satellite appearance of Matthew has become rather disheveled
looking in infrared satellite imagery since the previous advisory.
Land-based Doppler radar data indicate that Matthew has been going
through an eyewall replacement cycle for the past 12 hours or so,
but the inner eyewall has yet to dissipate within the 35-40 nmi wide
outer eyewall. Both Doppler velocity data and recon SFMR surface
winds and flight-level winds indicate that hurricane-force winds are
and have been occuring within the outer eyewall just 5-10 nmi east
of the Florida coastline. Although the central pressure has
remained steady between 938-940 mb, the intensity has been lowered
to 105 kt based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 118 kt and several
patches of Doppler velocities of 120-122 kt between 5000-7500 feet.

The initial motion estimate is 330/12 kt. For the next 48 hours,
Matthew is expected to move northward and then northeastward around
the western periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge. After that
time, a weakening Matthew is expected to turn slowly southeastward
and then southward as the cyclone gets cut off from the influence of
the mid-latitude westerlies and becomes embedded within the
aforementioned large-scale high pressure ridge. The latest model
guidance has shifted to the left of the previous forecast track
after 36 hours, and the official forecast has been nudged in that
direction, but remains well to the right of the model consensus and
close to the GFS-ECMWF consensus.

Matthew is expected to slowly weaken some more during the next 12
hours or so while the cyclone completes the eyewall replacement
cycle. By 24 hours and beyond, more significant weakening is
expected due to the combination of strong southwesterly vertical
shear increasing to more than 30 kt and entrainment of very dry
mid-level air with humidity values less than 20 percent. The new
intensity forecast closely follows the consensus model IVCN.

I just love waking up to good news. A lot of folks not out of the woods yet, but things are in much better shape than it looked like they would be this morning.

I'm heading south, currently docked in VA with a FL destination. I wonder what the ICW condition will be like after the storm.

hmason said:

I'm heading south, currently docked in VA with a FL destination. I wonder what the ICW condition will be like after the storm.

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Join Active Captain if you haven't already and stay up on the reviews and comments ahead of you. Also make sure your using current electronic NOAA charts and update them daily.

psneeld said:

The upside is what you have been preaching all along, the forecasts are so unoredictsble...why prepare and leave until you know its time?

Sure you have to have more ducks in a row....but for every hurricane I was initially concerned about....I have only really had to do anything for maybe 1 in 10. That's living and boating in the Miami, Pensacola/Mobile, and NJ areas.

I learned to wait till I had to pull the trigger, then take the necessary steps to prevent damage or injury.

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Thus far PS this appears to have been the sensible approach for FL. The coiffed weather heads seem focused on ratings, job security and Twitter hits. The sad story is Haiti, no where to run and hide from those airborne tin roofs.

But I did see where one of the Presidential hopefuls will stop hurricanes from forming in Africa and the Atlantic by implementing stage 3 of the Kyoto Treaty or some such action.

Hurricane matthew tropical cyclone update
nws national hurricane center miami fl al142016
900 am edt fri oct 07 2016

...9 am edt position update...
...matthew's eyewall brushing the coast of north-central florida...

Summary of 900 am edt...1300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...29.0n 80.3w
about 45 mi...75 km nne of cape canaveral florida
about 45 mi...75 km se of daytona beach florida
maximum sustained winds...120 mph...195 km/h
present movement...nnw or 330 degrees at 14 mph...22 km/h
minimum central pressure...945 mb...27.91 inches

sunchaser said:

But I did see where one of the Presidential hopefuls will stop hurricanes from forming in Africa and the Atlantic by implementing stage 3 of the Kyoto Treaty or some such action.

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Anyway; glad Fla seems to have dodged a bullet.

Regarding the ICW. With all the runoff there's going to be a LOT of debris for a couple days. Tree limbs, tires, road debris etc etc floating. If your schedule allows, Wait a bit. Probably better to venture offshore if possible for a couple inlets to avoid all the crap in the water.

Daddyo said:

Join Active Captain if you haven't already and stay up on the reviews and comments ahead of you. Also make sure your using current electronic NOAA charts and update them daily.

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How do you update charts daily?

sunchaser said:

Thus far PS this appears to have been the sensible approach for FL. The coiffed weather heads seem focused on ratings, job security and Twitter hits. The sad story is Haiti, no where to run and hide from those airborne tin roofs.

But I did see where one of the Presidential hopefuls will stop hurricanes from forming in Africa and the Atlantic by implementing stage 3 of the Kyoto Treaty or some such action.

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back in post 242 I mentioned how none of the talking heads were mentioning the coast being in the safer semicircle and the speed of the storm...they were just talking... "horrific destruction".

while I don't take hurricanes lightly, they are what they are and the wait and see, then scramble approach has worked better for me. It forces a better understanding of theIr impact...and no, I can't forecast even close to the professionals.

While there are still a lot of warnings and reports of imminent doom and while the hurricane could still take a bad turn, as it's headed now, looks like most of us in the US will have experienced the equivalent of a tropical storm or a CAT 1. There is a tremendous difference between 80 mph winds and 130 mph winds. Things in South Florida pretty much getting back to normal today. Hopefully the rest of the coast not but a day or two behind. This also applies to storm surge so far. The areas of 4-6' forecast, didn't top 3'.

It sure is difficult getting news from other places, from the Bahamas to Cuba to Haiti. From what I've heard, it seems like most of the Bahamas was skirted much as Florida, so far, rather than head on hits. Jamaica the same way. Haiti hit directly and perhaps the eastern edge of Cuba. We're so use to heavy television and radio reporting in the US and many of these areas have very little.

ICW and the storm

cappy208 said:

Great.... another 'line in the sand' to prevaricate over.

Anyway; glad Fla seems to have dodged a bullet.

Regarding the ICW. With all the runoff there's going to be a LOT of debris for a couple days. Tree limbs, tires, road debris etc etc floating. If your schedule allows, Wait a bit. Probably better to venture offshore if possible for a couple inlets to avoid all the crap in the water.

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ICW is going to be a mess for next couple of weeks. Very unpredictable depths

wrwahl said:

ICW is going to be a mess for next couple of weeks. Very unpredictable depths

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I think that depends on the area and also what happens from this point on. In our area there's likely no impact. Much depends still on the surge north.

I'm in Miami and I think I lost 6 or 7 leaves, my daughter is in Boca and her plastic patio furniture turned over, my son is in Melbourne and he lost two limbs off a large tree. I know Haiti lost many lives but that happens in a summer rain because of building conditions.
Much of this storm paranoia is perpetrated by the media who feeds itself on its own predictions. Local media were saying lives will be lost, but that is true every day storm
Or no storm.
Now we can get back to normal.

Thanks for the updates everyone. We're in Savannah and are well sheltered from the north winds. Unfortunately our pilings at the marina are too short for our liking. We are headed up hill to a friends house. Please keep the surge reports coming!

Safe passage to everyone else waiting their turn with matthew

Bigsfish said:

I'm in Miami and I think I lost 6 or 7 leaves, my daughter is in Boca and her plastic patio furniture turned over, my son is in Melbourne and he lost two limbs off a large tree. I know Haiti lost many lives but that happens in a summer rain because of building conditions.

Much of this storm paranoia is perpetrated by the media who feeds itself on its own predictions. Local media were saying lives will be lost, but that is true every day storm

Or no storm.

Now we can get back to normal.

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I am very glad that you and your family were not impacted by Matthew. It appears to me that Florida was very fortunate. As I sit here on the upper left-hand corner of the continental US, it appears that the storm could just have easily moved further East and caused even less of an issue. On the other hand, if Matthew had moved to the West side of its projected course, it could have been much, much worse. My concern would be that given this experience, the next time a Cat4 hurricane approaches the East coast folks will simply ignore it since "Much of this storm paranoia is perpetrated by the media who feeds itself on its own predictions."

BTW Matthew was reduced to a cat 3 before it made landfall, most of the recorded wind velocities I saw were 50 and 60 mph which isn't a hurricane.