Hurricane Matthew?

NoDistination, have you thought about Trout Creek ? You would be on the sheltered side of the river and plenty of tree's to tie off to and water depth.

Yes, I did, but if Mother Nature decided to hit me - no place to hide. Just talk to some marina workers and those docks should take 4 feet, and maybe even 5. I got 6 lines tide to the peer. Will see what happen. It may be nothing. After the hurricane "clear" the Bahamas, then we will know where is going and what cat. Until then, just speculations.

Not looking good for Florida.

Lobstah said:

Crashed last night thinking "Ok...things are starting to get sorted, models are converging, at least people have an idea now of when/where."
Woke up this morning, grabbed coffee, sat down...

Well crap.
Anyone seen a Cat 4 hurricane make a 360 turn off the coast of Miami?
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=ensmodel

I'm thinking that instead of the models getting more accurate, we're seeing the opposite.
Seems like anything out past about 12hrs is anyone's guess at this point.

Click to expand...

That is just one model but all now have it turning away from shore at some point more than they previously did.

Here's the interesting aspect of it all. Currently we have hurricane warnings. However, if you look at the forecasts, we don't come close to hurricane as the winds tomorrow are 40-45 mph with gusts around 70 mph or 58-62 mph on another forecast, so no forecast of it coming ashore as a hurricane. Doesn't mean it can't but the actual forecast is far different than the headlines. Now a course change could bring it ashore, but that's not the forecast.

Traveling at 8 or 9 mph gives it a wide range of directions. I wish it would speed up.

Man, all the time I have spent reviewing models and forecast tracks... What a wasted effort. I now know where the term "spaghetti" map comes from. Put a map on the table and throw some wet spaghetti on it.

I think one improvement might be for the forecast cone to be shaded in colors indicating their confidence of the track. Folks get hung up on the cone map because it is graphically simple to understand.

Sometimes these models really nail the course. Sometimes the models are not worth a cr@p. In the discussion, they will say as much as they have in this case, but the cone remains the same and all sorts of people make decisions based on the cone. Then wake up in the morning like I did and go "WTF".

Lots of folks are in a tizzy.

I've got my hurricane prep steps for the boats, docks and house down to about 12hrs of work for a 2/3. I learned a long time ago to do NOTHING until the last 12hrs of daylight. Not too productive doing all that work and then getting 20kts of wind.

4/5 probably nothing matters, but I'll do the preps anyway.

Good Luck NoDistination.
We lived in the Tocoi area and my Hurricane Hole down that way was Deep Creek, never had to use it the 25 years we lived there, most damage from off shore hurricanes caused by sections of docking breaking loose and ending up as battering rams. Lost a nice concrete bulkhead !

Some sites actually do have shaded cones with probabilities of tropical storm winds and of hurricane winds in specific areas. However, they've moved a bit too, just not dramatically. The issue I see is that the Hurricane Warnings and the Governor's talks as well as the television headlines differ significantly from the actual forecasts. They keep talking about CAT 4 for South Florida but that remains offshore and the equivalent forecast for land remains at tropical storm level. The European forecast long ago showed it coming up the coast of FL just offshore. That's what is shown now. it showed it following the coast on up. Now, that's shown but also they show it turning East. That makes sense as other systems come into play.

As to boats and home, we've done what there is to do and just wait now. As to businesses, they will close during the afternoon as we get into a closer window and reopen mid day on Friday. This is just as a favor to employees (who will be paid their scheduled hours) and a recognition that no one is going to shop for clothing or furniture or such tomorrow. Phone stores will stay open longer where possible. We sell no necessities. We sell nothing you need for a hurricane. For employees of grocers and home products such as Home Depot, it's far more challenging.

Did just see a headline reminding that Cape Hatteras receives the most hurricanes of any point in the US. Just a random note.

Currently 86 degrees and winds of 9 mph.

One of the local forecasts in Fl:
From WFTV / Tom Terry:

IMPACTS & THREATS

Along the coast (Brevard, Volusia, and Flagler counties):

Thursday: Tropical storm –force winds of at least 39 mph (sustained winds)
Friday: Strongest winds, likely hurricane-force winds of at least 75 mph maximum sustained winds. Very high surf, wave above 15 feet, storm surge of 3-6 feet in some areas, rip currents and large beach erosion. Rainfall could vary between 3-6 inches, depending on the track and where the bands become more persistent.
Storm surge: An abnormal rise of water generated by a storm over and above the predicted astronomical tide, will be a big problem for coastal Brevard, Volusia and Flagler residents.

From New Smyrna Beach north, storm surge could be 5 to 7 feet. Brevard County likely to experience 3 to 5 feet storm surge.

From Dr. Master's latest update:
"Thanks to my advancing years and a low-stress lifestyle that features daily meditation, there’s not much that can move me to profanity—except the occasional low-skill driver who endangers my life on the road. But this morning while looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. I’ve been a meteorologist for 35 years, and am not easily startled by a fresh set of model results: situations in 2005 and 1992 are the only ones that come to mind. However, this morning’s depiction by our top models—the GFS, European, and UKMET—of Matthew missing getting picked up by the trough to its north this weekend and looping back to potentially punish The Bahamas and Florida next week was worthy of profuse profanity. While a loop back towards Florida and The Bahamas next week is not yet a sure thing, the increasing trend of our top models in that direction is a strong indication that Matthew will be around for a very long time. Long-range forecasts of wind shear are not very reliable, but this morning’s wind shear forecast from the 00Z run of the European model does show a low to moderate shear environment over the Bahamas and waters surrounding South Florida late next week, potentially supportive of a hurricane--if Matthew survives the high wind shear of 50+ knots expected to affect the storm early next week. The bottom line is that it currently appears that Matthew will not recurve out to sea early next week, and The Bahamas and Florida may have to deal with the storm again next week."

Interesting, but it looks like Va is safe.
I don't mind experiencing interesting weather up to a point, and we can use the rain.

Lobstah said:

From Dr. Master's latest update:

Click to expand...

Well, that's good news, but with all things fickle (Weather, women etc) it can all change. Webcam of my Washington Waterfront docks, show most have bailed for safer areas. Mark (Daddyo) and I will be out in the river swingng on mooring balls just in case!

Heron,
I agree. A whole lot of professional forecasters shaking their heads on this one.

As I said before, seems almost like the closer we get, the more surprises we get...

A couple of models bring this across the state into GOM and then South.

We are tied up at Atlantic Yacht Basin in Chesapeake, VA. Just wondering if any TF'ers are here as well?

Wifey B: I wonder if Matthew will decide to try to date Nicole? Then they could have little kid hurricanes. :lol: Ok, I know it's serious but just had to lighten it up a moment.

BandB said:

Wifey B: I wonder if Matthew will decide to try to date Nicole? Then they could have little kid hurricanes. :lol: Ok, I know it's serious but just had to lighten it up a moment.

Click to expand...

I think they are going to have oral sex in Bermuda

jwnall said:

You have to wonder what Nicole entering the picture will mean . . . curiouser and curiouser as they say . . .

Click to expand...

Google the
Fujiwhara effect, to see what happens when two storms interact.

BandB said:

Wifey B: I wonder if Matthew will decide to try to date Nicole? Then they could have little kid hurricanes. :lol: Ok, I know it's serious but just had to lighten it up a moment.

Click to expand...

You may be kidding but I think you may not be far off the mark. I make no claims as a weather forecaster but I did study meteorology in university (in the old days). With the other big low east of Matthew (Louise) and yet another one in the North Atlantic these things act like black holes and pull towards each other. Add in the front coming down from Canada and the jetsream running north east through the US and it all adds up to Matthew being pushed/pulled east before it reaches the Chesapeake. Unfortunately if this does happen it makes the bizarre prediction of a 360degree rounding of Matthew possible so that Bahamas and Florida could get hit twice.

But what the hell lots of people know more than me.

boatpoker said:

But what the hell lots of people know more than me.

Click to expand...

Or claim to perhaps. Now when all this is over, every forecaster will be saying they told us exactly what was going to happen. Thing is, that will probably be true that one out of the hundred forecasts they gave turned out to be right.

All day news about the storm approach in Miami,south Florida. Going over the same stuff for hours. Wife is watching and calling everyone she can. Got the boat ready for 30+ winds tomorrow afternoon with gusts to 45 so says the weather on the vhf. Tied everything down here at harbour Cay club and planing a hurricane party tomorrow night. Keys out of cone of death but will get winds and rain starting tonight thru Friday. Many boat have been pulled and racked,big boats on moorings in boot key harbour and have seen some yachts come into faro blanco to tie up for the storm. Going to be ready and watch where it guy is going after Saturday. Looks like it might turn back toward Florida. Let's hope not. Good luck to all in its path.

A lot of forecasters have played catchup throughout this whole saga so far.
Really shows the value (if you can put up with all of the bickering, making liberal use of the "ignore" button) of a blog like Master's on WU.
A lot of the serious longtime bloggers there were way out in front of this with some pretty good analysis to back up what they were thinking.

Interesting to look at Passageweather. They show a landfall between canaveral and stuart. Then up the coast, then back down. Not showing the big loop out to sea.

Still so much unknown as just a few miles left or right changes everything. In FLL we have a hurricane warning but we have a forecast of only tropical storm winds. Now that makes sense as the warning is what happens if it moves left and the forecast is based on the current predicted path. I did notice that Daytona Beach has CAT 1 winds, around 85 mph forecast vs. our much lower forecast.

Groceries aren't the only thing with a run on them today. Everyone fueled their cars and cell phones sold insanely and are still doing so, referring to inexpensive phones and packages. The $29.99 phones and $30 plans. Batteries have also been hot. Some phones are just for backup. Others are for people who didn't have one. Actually wise in case land communication is down. We expect outrageous returns next week or just cancelling service. That's fine. I didn't anticipate this but fortunately those more knowledgeable than me run day to day operations.

Hobo's 2 miles from the entrance of the St John's River in JAX, on the hard with 16 jack stands w/chains. She's facing into the wind. We reinstalled the thru hulls we took out last week. With the predicted storm surge of 4-6', she'll float if she has to. We should be done tomorrow am securing everything and then we wait.

Larry M said:

Hobo's 2 miles from the entrance of the St John's River in JAX, on the hard with 16 jack stands w/chains. She's facing into the wind. We reinstalled the thru hulls we took out last week. With the predicted storm surge of 4-6', she'll float if she has to. We should be done tomorrow am securing everything and then we wait.

Click to expand...

Thinking outside the box for a moment....as hurricanes pass....winds shift. Plus the can be all over the place from turbulence, etc.

Thought about lowering your Paravane poles for less windage? I have been toying with the idea of connection ting them to heavy objects to also help any rocking in the stands......not convinced...just thinking....

Larry: Might want to throw out the anchor.

Just a quick note to all,I hope all in the path (whatever it becomes) stay safe . God bless all .

Lots of boats came up the Miami river today. Sold a bunch of rope and fenders. We're under a tropical storm warning but everyone is treating it like a hurricane warning. Good practice for us. Haven't gone through the drill in a long time.
Possum is behind my store with double lines and no canvas.

Stay safe everyone! No "stuff," even my boat, is worth injury or worse.

Godspeed.

If you follow the media reporting on this or any other hurricane they are really drama merchants and make it appear much more important than it is. The reporting after the storm always shows the worst, most destructive photos they can find. They are in the business of selling. My boat is on the Miami River and I've doubled the spring lines and taken in the cushions. I have confidence the boat will be fine.