Hurricane Matthew?

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So just a word of caution. The last time a big cane went thru SC it killed the debit card processors. The cards were down for a week I think.
 
Donsan said:
About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
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Donsan,

Wish you the best of luck, but 2 feet is awful optimistic.
 
timjet said:
Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
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Im in the Tampa area (Maderia Beach), but have done nothing. If it looks threatening I'm on a life so run it up high and tie it very tight with long spring lines. Add a few plywood panels to the windows of the house, and get out of town....
 
Lobstah I have no idea how long you have been following Florida bound hurricanes but I find the models to be extremely accurate currently versus those of 20-30-40 or even 50+ years ago. We don't know EXACTLY where this hurricane will make landfall but we have an educated quess that is being updated every 12 hours or so. I can live with the current prognostication.
 
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Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.

This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.

Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.

Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
 
angus99 said:
Wallace, Worton Creek had some transient spots when I was there Sunday. It's well-protected, especially from the east. If you end up there, let me know; like to shake hands.

Ian (angus99)
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Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss :)
 
Lobstah said:
Bigfish,
I've tracked Nor'Easters up in Maine/New England for years. Hurricanes are similar. Not identical, but similar. So a bunch of hurricanes come through, and out of all of the model runs, there are say 20 that all bunch up, and maybe 2-3 that disagree. All things being equal, everyone goes with the 20. Then you have a scenario where there are 15 that do one thing, and 8 that do something different. Now?...now you start to pay attention.
Then, you get a split...12 one way, 12 another. Clearly at this point, there is no consensus and no agreement on what's likely to happen.

This storm has been very interesting. Initially, most models said OTS (Out To Sea). A few started saying no, it'll be a bit further west. When the rest of the models caught up to the "outliers", the outliers had already moved again, further west. Euro and GFDL have been steadily moving Westward over the past 4-5 days, with the NHC playing catchup.
That's why this afternoon, there were still models that indicated a Cat 4 landfall in Miami, travelling up the central area of Fl, and then exiting the state up in Jacksonville.
4 Days ago, any model that indicated an East coast landfall was deemed to be lunacy, and yet here we are. SE coastal areas are being evacuated.

Bottom line?...when there's this much disagreement about what something is going to do?...it's because NOBODY knows. Personally?...I think the NHC has done a pretty poor job on this storm. They've been playing catchup for at least 4 days now. In this day and age, that's terrible performance, in my book. Before I get flamed, that's just my opinion, but these folks should be doing a better job than they are, and I believe the thing that holds them back is politics.

Be safe, and I hope everyone that needs one finds a hole.
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Lobstah

Good points, however "usually" the majority of the spaghetti models come thru as predicted and the NWS really doesn't do a bad job.

Nothing perfect in predictions, but this day and age they are quite accurate.
 
Forecasting certainly came a long way with the advent of computers, satellites and the funding it gets now.

Lots of professions can't predict the future.....banking, medicine, mechanics, etc...etc...

I have been using weather data professionally since the 70s and am dang glad we have come this far.
 
boatpoker said:
Ian: We have decided to stay (on the dock) in Chesapeake City til' this blows through.
It's all a crap shoot. C'mon by and see us. DIRT FREE is hard to miss :)
Click to expand...

If you're still there Saturday morning, I'll stop by. Stay safe!
 
Seevee. I agree, the further the hurricane is out (the more days it needs to travel to make landfall) the further the models will disagree but as those days shrink the predictions become more accurate and the accuracy improves. I've been following hurricanes since the 1940s having lived in Miami all my life and I can remember storms that were predicted to miss Miami that came straight over the hiss I grew up on an island (no water in the house but three feet outside). It's much better today.
 
Greetings,
As an aside, I vaguely remember an episode of WKRP in Cincinnati where Les Nessman was giving an "on the spot" weather report. Andy (station manager) asked Les where he got his weather information. Les replied "I just look out the window and report what I see".
 
RT. I remember that episode, what a fun program.
 
timjet said:
Anybody in the Tampa Bay area doing anything with their boat?
Click to expand...

So far, nada. But I have Tide Minders and 600 ft. of rope on the boat that I put there for Hermine just in case. I'd need 4 hours to set it all up.
 
I'm wondering about people in Haiti and Cuba any news?

Hugues
 
Last I read, the government of Haiti had requested humanitarian assistance from the US military. Lot of areas unreachable with no communication.

No doubt significant impact, not sure if the outside world know yet.

Mark
 
:oldman:I still like what WINDYTY.com reflects on all weather including this storm.

https://www.windyty.com/?gust,-36.280,137.549,4

Take care all ( a small prayer of thanks that the good Lord placed me where I am):oldman:

Al-Ketchikan,Alaska 27' Marben Pocket Cruiser
 
North of Haiti and Est of Cuba still under Matthew

Hope that not kill to many people :mad: but seriously due to the poverty to this country I'm not really peaceful for them...:blush:

Hugues
 
Took the canvas off Possum today. Shutters go up tomorrow. I've got a fancy wrap on my store building. It's getting a little old and I was thinking of taking it off. I suspect that on Thursday that decision will be made for me.
 
Donsan said:
About an hour or so ago, the admiral and I were storm prepping the boat and kayaks on the dock when 4 USCG cutters came down the St Johns heading for a designated hurricane hole. Their wake was impressive. We are about 50 miles south of Jax. We are fairly certain we will lose power and it might be several days or even weeks before we get it back. The big question I have is how high will the St Johns rise at our location. Hopefully not more than 2 feet.
Click to expand...


I would suggest checking one of the surge maps to get an idea.

https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/surge_images.asp
 
BandB said:
Wifey B: Where do you want to be? Home? Near your things? With family and friends? Far away from the hurricane. Seems simple until you face the choices. We have people looking after things for us in South Florida, nothing we need to be there to do. Chicago is safe. Yet, we're feeling bad like we should fly home and be there with them even though we don't think it's coming there. If you decide to fly home, what day? What about family in Myrtle Beach? Should we tell them to fly here? We would choose all our stuff getting destroyed before someone badly hurt protecting any of it. We really are torn over this. We have air tickets for Wednesday morning, just in case we want to go home. We could have them all come here, but if we were there, we wouldn't be leaving based on what we know right now. Guess we'll follow it more tomorrow and think more. :ermm:
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Wifey B: We flew home tonight. Everyone told us to stay in Chicago but we feel so much better home in Fort Lauderdale. We know it's stupid but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do.
 
BandB said:
Wifey B: We flew home tonight. Everyone told us to stay in Chicago but we feel so much better home in Fort Lauderdale. We know it's stupid but sometimes you just gotta do what you gotta do.
Click to expand...

I understand completely, we have been in the same situation and made the same decision. It will be hard for some to understand. All the best and stay safe.
 
healhustler said:
So far, nada. But I have Tide Minders and 600 ft. of rope on the boat that I put there for Hermine just in case. I'd need 4 hours to set it all up.
Click to expand...

Seevee said:
Im in the Tampa area (Maderia Beach), but have done nothing. If it looks threatening I'm on a life so run it up high and tie it very tight with long spring lines. Add a few plywood panels to the windows of the house, and get out of town....
Click to expand...

As of Wednesday morning NHC predicts 30-40% chance of tropical force winds in the Tampa Bay area. I'm at the Harborage marina which is pretty well protected from waves and because of the vicinity of the downtown area, winds as well. I'll be headed down to the boat tomorrow to check on things.
 
Anticipation - Green Cove Springs is about 30mil from the ocean on St.Johns river. Took down my bimini top and secure with extra lines. I hope that Mather Nature let me keep it. Floating docks are old and fragile - hook up extra lines to the peer. Large, open area from NE - good for wind, bad for me. Will see what happen.
 
nodestination said:
Anticipation - Green Cove Springs is about 30mil from the ocean on St.Johns river. Took down my bimini top and secure with extra lines. I hope that Mather Nature let me keep it. Floating docks are old and fragile - hook up extra lines to the peer. Large, open area from NE - good for wind, bad for me. Will see what happen.
Click to expand...

Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
 
Crashed last night thinking "Ok...things are starting to get sorted, models are converging, at least people have an idea now of when/where."
Woke up this morning, grabbed coffee, sat down...

Well crap.
Anyone seen a Cat 4 hurricane make a 360 turn off the coast of Miami?
https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2016/Hurricane-Matthew?map=ensmodel

I'm thinking that instead of the models getting more accurate, we're seeing the opposite.
Seems like anything out past about 12hrs is anyone's guess at this point.
 
Donsan said:
Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
Click to expand...

Really just depends on how high the posts are and how strongly the docks are secured. Some can handle 4' and some up to 15'. Now, hopefully you will not experience CAT 3. It's likely to be a CAT 2 or 3 by the time it reaches you but offshore a bit.

Note an overnight change. After coming up the coast a bit, many of the forecasts have it turning more sharply east and one even has it doing a completely clockwise loop almost.
 
This note from Dr. Masters is pretty telling:
"1900. Dr. Jeff Masters , Director of Meteorology (Admin)
12:17 PM GMT on October 05, 2016
6 +
Good morning, all! Though my morning started out not so good. While looking at the latest weather model runs, multiple very bad words escaped my lips. Next post should be up around 10 am."
 
Donsan said:
Just looking at the storm surge link BandB posted and I was appalled that a Cat 3 storm could cause the St Johns to surge 8 ft at our place and we are 20 miles or so further south. Just how high will those docks float?
Click to expand...
At the best - 2-3 feet. They are old and falling apart. They do not have a concrete ( or wooden)post. Any pressure from a side will rip them off. Worst case - I will be floating in river with the dock. There is a reason why this marina is so cheap.
 
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